The Tour de Romandie is known as a mini grand tour that tests most of the skillsets of a complete bike rider and so it has often kicked off with a prologue. After a one-year absence, the short opening test is back on the menu but as it includes a small climb, it is a stage suited to more to punchy riders than sprinters and TT specialists who often do well in the short time trials.

 

The course

After last year’s unusual team time trial opener, the race will be back to its traditional format with an opening prologue. As always, it’s a very short one but it’s not the usual flat affair. As it was the case in 2013 when the race started with a real mountain prologue, the organizers have included a significant climb which means that the opener is more for the explosive climbers than for the time trial specialists.

 

The 3.95km stage takes place in the city of La Chaux-de-Fonds and doesn’t have many flat roads. After just 300m of flat riding, the riders will turn right to hit the category 3 climb of Rue de la Montagne (1.32km, 5.3%, max. 9%). The top comes at the 1.63km mark and leads straight onto the descent which includes a hairpin bend and four sharp turns on the lower slopes. The final kilometre is only very slightly descending and will see the riders travel along an almost completely straight road where it is all about power.

 

La-Chaux-de-Fonds last hosted a stage finish in 2012 when Bradley Wiggins used unusual sprinting skills to win a reduced bunch sprint, setting himself up for the overall victory. In 2009, Oscar Freire won a reduced bunch sprint while Markus Fothen was the fastest in a similar sprint in 2007. In 2006, Angel Vicioso and David Herrero held off the peloton by one second and in 2000 Laurent Dufaux won a 7-rider sprint.

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour de Romandie is famously known for its cold and rainy weather so when most of Europe is hit by Arctic cold, it is no surprise that the race will get off to a brutally cold start. On Tuesday, no less than 7-12cm of snow is forecasted in La-Chaux-de-Fond and with a maximum temperature of 3 degrees it will be very cold. The risk of snow will be a little lower at the time of the prologue but it will still be around 50%.

 

To make things even worse, it will be windy too as there will be a strong wind from a westerly direction which will abate slightly towards the end of the stage. The rides will mainly have a cross-headwind in the first part and a cross-tailwind in the second part.

 

The favourites

The GC riders will have to be on their toes right from the start as the first gaps will be created already on the first day. On such a short course, the differences will be relatively small but it will be very important to get the race off to a solid start, at least from a mental point of view. Even though the seconds won or lost here are unlikely to play much of a role at the end of an unusually tough edition of this race, the GC riders will all go full gas on a course that should suit them better in a standard prologue.

 

Prologues are always difficult to gauge as they usually suit a mix of TT specialists and sprinters. This one is completely different though and there will be no room for the fast guys or the big engines. As it is mainly uphill or downhill on a technical course, this is much more about acceleration and explosiveness than power and TT skills and the stage is likely to be won by a punchy rider with great technical skills.

 

Furthermore, the weather will play a big role. Snow has been forecasted and this will make the roads extremely slippery. On such a technical course, that will have a big impact on the outcome and very much will depend on which riders are willing to take the risks. This should favour the time trial specialists over the GC riders for whom the stage win is less important in the bigger picture. It will also be very interesting to see how many risks the Giro d’Italia contenders will take so close to one of their biggest goals of the year.

 

Tom Dumoulin is one of those Giro riders that will carefully have to gauge how much effort he is going to put into what could be a dangerous TT. On paper, the Dutchman is the best time triallist in this race and he can do almost any kind of time trial. He likes the long ones and has won numerous prologues in the past. He prefers hilly and technical courses and so he could probably not have designed a better course than this.

 

Dumoulin goes into this race with two goals: he wants to win the two time trials and go for GC. In the Giro, he won’t have an eye on the overall standings – at least not in the early part of the race – as he doesn’t want to compromise his chances at the Olympics. His goal is to win the time trials, most notable the first one on Dutch soil. Hence, he has been training a lot on his TT bike and should be ready for an effort like. If he is willing to take the risks, he is the obvious favourite for this stage.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is still not the rider he was in 2014. He failed completely in the Ardennes classics and now has to play a support role in this race. However, he will get his personal chance in the prologue which is much more about explosiveness and technical skills than pure form. Kwiatkowski is one of the best prologue riders in the world and even in 2015 when he never reached his best form, he managed to win the Paris-Nice prologue. With the explosive climb and many turns, this one even suits him a lot better and he should excel in the wet and treacherous conditions. In 2014, he won the prologue here and there is a very big chance that Kwiatkowski will get a welcome confidence boost by taking another victory here.

 

Jerome Coppel has always been a very good time triallist but he took a massive step up in 2015 when he took bronze at the World Championships. He prefers longer time trials but he is an excellent prologue rider too. He has done very good short time trials in the past and can do pretty well in a short, explosive effort like the one that awaits here – just remember how he crushed the opposition in the Etoile de Besseges whose time trials ends with a short, steep climb. The Frenchman was in great form at the start of the year but suffered a bit when he fell ill at Paris-Nice. Nonetheless, he has been up there in every time trial he has done, most recently in Sarthe where he was beaten by less than a second. This race is a big goal for the local IAM team and there is a solid chance that their rider Coppel can take the lead right from the start.

 

Wilco Kelderman kicked off his career with some excellent time trial performances but in 2014 when he climbed better than ever, he performed poorly in the TTs. Now he is no longer climbing as well but he has rediscovered his best TT skills. Last year he beat Dumoulin at the Dutch Championships and he did a very good first TT at the Tour de France. As he is also pretty explosive and has good technical skills, he has done very good prologues in the past – just remember that he was second in the technical TT at last year’s Ruta del Sol. He is aiming for GC in this race and he has an excellent chance to gain time by delivering a top result on the first day.

 

Jesus Herrada is likely to play a support role for Nairo Quintana in this race but he will be keen to take his chance in the prologue. He was an excellent 4th in the Paris-Nice prologue and the climb should make this one even better for him. He is a fast rider with a solid kick and this should make him suited to this kind of effort. Furthermore, he has the technical skills to do well. He hasn’t raced for a long time so his form is uncertain but this race is usually a big goal for him so we expect him to come out with all guns blazing.

 

His teammate Ion Izagirre is another formidable contender for this race. The Basque was fifth in the Paris-Nice prologue and is going for GC in this race. He rarely misses the top 10 in hilly time trials and even though he prefers longer courses, he can do well in short time trials too. He has taken a massive step up in 2016 and he will go all out in a race that is a big goal for him. He proved his good form in the Ardennes and could very well prove himself ready to get a protected status in the Movistar team by doing a very good prologue.

 

Geraint Thomas is also going into this race in a protected role behind a big leader. The Brit was once one of the best prologue riders in the world but as he has lost weight, that is no longer the case. However, that weight loss should come in handy on a course like this one and so there is a solid chance that Thomas will return to the past by doing a very good prologue.

 

Bob Jungels is aiming for the Giro and he would love to get a confidence boost here. The Luxembourger is a huge time trial talent and he likes short, technical courses with a bit of climbing. In 2014, he was third behind Froome and Contador in the short Dauphiné TT which also had a climb but was much less technical. The many turns should make this one better for him and this naturally makes him one of the favourites.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez has had some difficult years but this year he has been back at his best level. In his heydays, he was a very good prologue rider and this one should be excellently suited to his explosive and technical skills. The Spaniard no longer seems to be in the form he was earlier in the year but in a race where it is more about skills than legs, the Spaniard should do well.

 

We had actually stopped mentioning Moreno Moser in our previews as it seemed that the Italian would never return to his former level. However, he showed signs of his former self by riding to third in the GP Miguel Indurain and he may be even better now as he has been preparing for the Giro. He is an excellent prologue rider who has done very well in short, technical time trials and the climb will only make it even better for the punchy Italian.

 

Michael Albasini is definitely not a TT specialist but he can do a pretty good prologue. The Swiss is evidently in the form of his life as he finished a surprise second in Liege and in the past he has been third in the Romandie prologue. The climb is perfectly suited to the punchy Swiss who has an excellent track record in this race. This year the course is less suited to him than it has usually been but he could grab an unexpected opportunity already on the first day.

 

We are curious to see whether Rigoberto Uran can return to his 2014 level in the TTs. Back then he was unstoppable in the time trials but he has not been at the same level since then. However, his form should be pretty good now as he is aiming for the Giro and in the past he has done some very good technical prologues. In any case, this course is made for him.

 

The BMC pair of Richie Porte and Tejay van Garderen are likely to be among the winners in the GC battle. Both are TT specialists but this effort is too short and explosive for them to win the stage. However, they have both done reasonably good prologues in the past and if they are willing to take the risks, they should be among the best here.

 

Ramunas Navardauskas has the right combination of power and explosiveness here and has done good prologues in the past. However, his technical skills have not always been great and so this course may have a bit too many corners to suit him well. Nonetheless, he is usually among the best in short, explosive time trials so he is definitely an outsider.

 

The same goes for Cameron Meyer who is very inconsistent in the time trials. Occasionally, he does some very good TTs, especially on shorter courses. His track background comes in handy in the prologues and he has very good technical skills. However, he hasn’t shown much form this year.

 

Dries Devenyns is not known as a TT specialist but he has done some excellent short, punchy time trials this year. He was a surprise 8th in the Paris-Nice prologue and did a good TT in Besseges. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to have the same kind of form now but we won’t rule out another surprise from him.

 

Gaetan Bille is a real prologue specialist and this stage is simply tailor-made for him. However, he has been a bit ill recently and has definitely not been at his best. That makes his performance way more uncertain but as he starts to rebuild his condition, he should be able to do well on this course.

 

Tom Bohli has been the surprise time triallist of the year. It was no secret that the neo-pro was a real specialist but few would have expected to beat the course record with a  dominant ride in West-Flanders and take third in the De Panne TT where he was beaten by Maciej Bodnar and Tony Martin by less than a second. However, the inclusion of a climb in this stage will probably make it impossible for him to repeat that effort here but we are curious to see what he can do.

 

In the early part of his career, Gorka Izagirre was not known as a time trial specialist but apparently his brother Ion has learned him a trick or two. In recent years, he has done some very good time trials, also on short courses. He has the explosive climbing skills to do well here.

 

We are curious to see how Victor Campenaerts will do here. The Belgian has always been a very good prologue rider – last year he was second in Boucles de la Mayenne and third in Ster ZLM Toer – but this year he has improved massively. He hasn’t shown much form recently and his TTs have been pretty inconsistent but if he can perform like he did earlier in the year, he should do well.

 

Lieuwe Westra seems to have returned to a better level in the time trials and even though he is still not the time triallist he once was, there are clear signs of improvement. He was sixth in the Paris-Nice prologue and fourth in De Panne. However, this course is probably a bit too explosive for him and as he hasn’t shown much form since De Panne he is more of an outsider than a real favourite.

 

Finally, Jack Bobridge deserves a mention. With his track background, the Australian is a good prologue rider but for some reason he has never been that good in the road prologues. This year he has mostly been riding on the track and he just arrived in Europe for Liege-Bastogne-Liege. However, his track training means that he should be ready for a short, intense effort. Unfortunately, the climb will probably make it difficult for him to win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Michal Kwiatkowski, Jerome Coppel

Outsiders: Wilco Kelderman, Jesus Herrada, Ion Izagirre, Geraint Thomas, Bob Jungels, Luis Leon Sanchez

Jokers: Moreno Moser, Michael Albasini, Rigoberto Uran, Tejay van Garderen, Richie Porte, Ramunas Navardauskas, Cameron Meyer, Dries Devenyns, Gaetan Bille, Tom Bohli, Gorka Izagirre, Victor Campenaerts, Lieuwe Westra, Jack Bobridge