Ion Izagirre confirmed his status as one of the best riders in the world for hilly time trials and as Nairo Quintana also did an excellent TT in wet conditions, Movistar have got the race off to a great start. However, they will have to wait until stage 2 before playing their next cards as the fast riders with good climbing legs look to get their time in the spotlight on stage 2 whose hilly finale makes it a typical day in the Swiss race.

 

The course

The Tour de Romandie, Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Volta a Catalunya are all held in very hilly regions that give very little room for the pure sprinters. Instead, they offer plenty of opportunities for the fast riders who can survive some tough climbing and the in-form Ardennes specialists usually have lots of opportunities in a race that is loaded with climbs.

 

The 2016 edition of the Swiss race again offers such opportunities for the fast guys with good climbing legs and one of them comes on the first road stage. It brings the riders over 169km from La Chaux-de-Fonds to Moudon and includes four smaller climbs on a day full of ups and downs. With a total amount of climbing of 1865m, it is certainly not a flat stage but as the climbs are relatively short and easy, it’s a great day for the fast riders.

 

The first part of the stage is lumpy before the riders hit a descent as they travel in a southwesterly direction. It leads almost straight onto the lower slopes of the biggest challenge of the day, the category 2 Col des Etroits (5.7km, 6.2%, max. 8%) whose summit comes at the 47.9km mark. From there, they will turn to the southeast as they tackle a technical descent and reach a short flat section.

 

The climbing starts again after 87.6km of racing when the peloton hit the category 3 climb to Arrissoules (2.9km, 6.7%, max. 9%) and then another lumpy section leads to the category 3 climb to Surpierre (2.1km, 6.7%, max. 9%) whose top comes with 52.9km to go. From there, they will descend to Moudon where they will cross the finish line after 127.3km of racing to contest the first intermediate sprint.

 

The final part of the stage consists of a 41.7km finishing circuit that includes a category 3 climb (5.3km, 4.0%, max. 16%) whose top comes with 28.8km to go. From there, the terrain is lumpy until the descent starts with 8.5km to go, with the final sprint coming with 13.6km to go. The final 5km are flat and don’t include any technical challenges until the riders take a right-hand turn with 600m to go.

 

Moudon last hosted a stage in 2010 when Richie Porte took a hugely surprising time trial win. In 1999, it hosted a split stage when Jeroen Blijlevens won a sprint in the morning and Laurent Jalabert won the time trial in the afternoon.

 

 

 

The weather

Today the conditions were not as tough as had been initially feared but the late rain still had a huge impact on the stage. The riders will be pleased to know that the conditions should be a lot better on Wednesday. It will probably be a cloudy morning but the sun is likely to come out for the start of the stage and there is only a 15% chance of a shower. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 8 degrees.

 

There will only be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that it will be a headwind until the riders get to the top of the first climb. Then there will be a short tailwind section before a cross-headwind leads onto the circuit. Here it will first be a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind on the climb and the lumpy section after the top. A short crosswind section will lead into a headwind for the final 15km.

 

The favourites

It was always going to be a bit of a gamble to decide when to start the prologue as nobody knew when the predicted showers set in. That made the prologue a hugely unpredictable affair and in the end it turned out that the wise choice was to start in the middle. The early starters had wet roads which cost time for the likes of Ilnur Zakarin, Romain Bardet and Rui Costa while the late starters rode in torrential rain which means that riders like Chris Froome, Richie Porte, Rafal Majka and Simon Spilak all opted for safely.

 

However, it is unlikely that the result would have been any different. Ion Izagirre was always going to be one of the favourites on a course that suited him well. The Basque is one of the best riders in the world for hilly time trials and he is also an excellent descender, it was a stage made for him. To see him put two seconds into Michal Kwiatkowski on the descent speaks volumes about how well he tackled the final part of the course.

 

In the GC battle, the big winners were Tejay van Garderen, Geraint Thomas, Thibaut Pinot, Diego Rosa, Davide Formolo, Louis Vervaeke, Rafael Valls and Mathias Frank who all had dry conditions and delivered good rides. However, there were also signals from some of the riders that rode in wet conditions. Both Nairo Quintana and Simon Spilak stormed up the climb and seem to be fully ready to challenge for the overall win. The fact that Quintana finished 18th despite riding in the hardest rain shows that the Colombian is in excellent condition and based on today’s performance, he has definitely increased his status as favourite significantly.

 

However, we will have to wait until stage 2 to learn more about the form of the GC contenders. The battle for the overall win will be put on hold for the first road stage which is a very typical Romandie stage. It’s up and down all day but with a flat finish, it is not a day for the GC riders. This is the kind of stage that suits strong sprinters and fast Ardennes specialists and the race is usually loaded with these routes. They are tailor-made for Michael Albasini who has won no less than five of the eight road stages in the last two years and there is little doubt that he has set his sights on this one which is probably his best chance all week.

 

Everybody knows that there is little chance for a breakaway to make it this early in the race as the gaps are still small and as the stage is a big goal for Orica-GreenEDGE. With a headwind right from the start, we expect the break to be established relatively early and we won’t be surprised to see riders from Wanty-Groupe Gobert, Roth, Lotto Soudal and Lampre-Merida on the attack. Especially, Thomas De Gendt is tailor-made for this kind of stage and he would love to build a solid foundation for a KOM campaign by escaping in this stage.

 

Movistar will take control early in the stage and they will probably get some assistance from Orica-GreenEDGE. Dimension Data, LottoNL-Jumbo, Lampre-Merida and Trek could all lend them a hand but as the latter three are mainly here for the GC, it will probably mainly be left to Orica-GreenEDGE. On the other hand, we don’t expect Etixx-QuickStep to make a contribution as they know that Marcel Kittel is unlikely to survive.

 

Of the final three climbs, the first two are the hardest. The final climb is more of a long uphill drag but apparently it has a very steep 16% section. We expect Orica-GreenEDGE to go full gas on the final climb and maybe even already on the penultimate ascent. They have a solid team of riders for this kind of terrain and they want to make the race as hard as possible for the pure sprinters. If they go fast on a 5.3km climb, it can do some damage even though many of the sprinters here are able to survive gradients of 4%.

 

In the end, we expect it to come down to a reduced bunch sprint and we don’t think that Marcel Kittel will be able to survive. Instead, it looks like a perfect opportunity for Michael Albasini. His second place in Liege proves that he is in the form of his life and he confirmed it today as he flew up the climb before he hit the deck on the descent. He didn’t sustain any injuries and will be ready to go tomorrow.

 

Usually, Orica-GreenEDGE would be riding for Simon Gerrans in a stage like this one but tomorrow they are very likely to go for Albasini. This is one of the rare chances he has to lead his team and given his track record and form, the team have made it clear that he deserves to be the captain for this race. He may not be a sprinter but as the fastest guys have rarely attended this race, he has won a couple of reduced bunch sprints in the last few years and this is what he will try to do again.

 

Albasini may not be the fastest rider in the bunch but at the end of a hard day, he can beat most of the riders here. Most importantly, he has by far the strongest lead-out with Jens Keukeleire, Gerrans and Daryl Impey. We expect them to completely dominate the finale and then the in-form Albasini will be hard to beat. Hence, he is our favourite.

 

Ben Swift has had a marvelous season and has been climbing better than ever before. He dropped the climbers in the queen stage at Paris-Nice and then rode to second to second in Milan-Sanremo. After a second place in Catalunya, he had a small break and claimed that he had lost a lot of condition. It’s hard to agree as he defied expectations in Liege where he was with the lead group until the Cote de Saint-Nicolas!

 

This proves that Swift is back in form and this is a stage that he is targeting. He has lost weight to again become the specialist in reduced bunch sprints that he once was and this race is a big goal for him. In fact, he decided to skip his home race Tour de Yorkshire where he would have been the obvious favourite to win overall, to go for stage wins here. This is his biggest chance and even though Sky mainly are here for the GC, they are likely to actually give him some support. Geraint Thomas may opt for safely but Michal Kwiatkowski and Salvatore Puccio can do a good job and as he has been sprinting very well all year, Swift can win this stage.

 

Trek are here with Niccolo Bonifazio who likes this kind of reduced bunch sprints. The Italian has been sprinting very well all year and was close to a stage win at Paris-Nice. He looked very strong in Amstel Gold Race where he was even on the attack and this proves that his form is pretty good. He is not always very consistent so there is no guarantee that he will make it to the finish with the best but if he is there in the finale, he can beat everybody. The main challenge is the fact that he won’t have much team support.

 

Kristian Sbaragli has had a slow start to the year but now he should be getting close to his best form as the Giro d’Italia is his big season target. Last year he won a reduced bunch sprint at the Vuelta and proved that he can survive even harder climbs than this one. He won’t have a real lead-out but as there won’t be many trains at all, that won’t necessarily be a big disadvantage. He definitely has the speed to win here.

 

We won’t rule Marcel Kittel completely out. When the German is on form, he actually climbs pretty well and he can dig deeper than most. He posted a pretty good time on the climb in the prologue and this suggests that his form is good. That is no big surprise as we are less than two weeks from the start of the Giro d’Italia which is his second big goal after his Scheldeprijs victory. He has Fabio Sabatini for the lead-out and those two riders can dominate the finale if the German has survived until the end.

 

Lampre-Merida are here with Davide Cimolai who is another rider with skills for this kind of stage. When on form, he climbs pretty well and there is a solid chance that he will make it to the finish with the best. He is not fast enough to win the big bunch sprints but as he proved in Catalonia, he can win this kind of stage. He doesn’t have a real lead-out but that wasn’t the case in Spain either.

 

Tosh van der Sande did excellently in the Ardennes classics and he seems to be in the form of his life. This is the kind of reduced bunch sprint that he likes and in last year’s Vuelta he proved that he has improved his sprinting considerably. He has been searching for form all year and was off the pace in Pais Vasco and Catalonia but now he seems to be ready to go for the win in these stages.

 

Moreno Hofland was once expected to be a rider for this kind of stage but he hasn’t really been climbing as well as many expected. This year he has even turned his attention more towards his sprinting and so is probably not climbing as well as he once was. However, he is building form for the Giro and so should be riding well. He has Dennis van Winden for the lead-out so if he is there at the finish, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Cannondale are here with Ramunas Navardauskas who has won a reduced bunch sprint in this race in the  past. He rode well in the rainy conditions today and seems to be in good form. However, he is not sprinting as well as he did two years ago and as he is always completely out of position, it will be hard for him to win.

 

After an illness-marred start to the season, Samuel Dumoulin has finally found some form and he arrives in Romandie on the back of his victory at Sunday’s La Roue Tourangelle. In that race, he made a strong attack in the finale and so he is climbing really well at the moment. He has also been sprinting well but he is probably not fast enough to win a WorldTour sprint.

 

This stage is tailor-made for Jose Joaquin Rojas who climbs almost as well as Swift. After he crashed at Pairs-Nice, he is already back in form. For some reason, he never wins the sprints where he is the fastest rider and we doubt that he will break the drought tomorrow. Furthermore, his main goal will be to keep Quintana and Izagirre safe so he may even skip the sprint completely.

 

Simon Gerrans would love to get his chance in this sprint but as said we expect him to work for Albasini. However, the pair may be talking to each other during the stage and if Albasini is not up for the challenge, the Australian may get his chance. He is a master in winning reduced bunch sprints – he did so twice in Pais Vasco where he failed to win a stage due to late breakaways – so if he does the sprint, he will be one of the biggest favourites.

 

Finally Andrea Pasqualon deserves a mention. The Roth sprinter has proved that he can challenge the best sprinters in this kind of lumpy terrain. However, his form has been far from its best this year and if he hasn’t improved considerably, he won’t be there at the end of such a tough stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Albasini

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Niccolo Bonifazio

Outsiders: Kristian Sbaragli, Marcel Kittel, Davide Cimolai, Tosh van der Sande

Jokers: Moreno Hofland, Samuel Dumoulin, Ramunas Navardauskas, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Simon Gerrans, Andrea Pasqualon