Following tradition, the Tour de Suisse will kick off with a prologue and for the second year in a row, a relatively flat course will give the real specialists a chance to grab the first leader’s jersey. Fabian Cancellara stands out as the favourite to start his final participation in his home race with a bang but unfortunately rainy weather can make the opening time trial a bit of a lottery.

 

The course

Since 2000, only four editions of the race haven't started with a short time trial. The last time the race kicked off with a road stage was back in 2008 when Oscar Freire won a sprint from a reduced peloton to take the first leader's jersey. This year the opening stage is again a time trial but like last year the organizers have deviated from their usual pattern of including a pretty difficult climb and a very technical descent. In recent years the race has often started with the same stage in Lugano which mostly consisted of a climb and a descent but in 2013 they had their first traditional prologue for years. In 2014 the opener was again a challenging affair with a tough climb but in recent years the organizers have preferred to give the specialists the upper hand on the opening day.

 

At 6.4km, the stage is a bit longer than last year’s prologue and is held in the city of Baar that will host the two first stages of the race. After an early turn, the riders will follow a straight road for most of the first half that is mainly descending and has a small climb (500, 3%) around the 2km mark. In the second half, there are more turns and the course becomes more technical. Furthermore, the road is very slightly uphill as the final 2.5km average around 0.6%. The final turn comes 600m from the line. In total, there are three turns in the first half and seven turns in the second half.

 

Baar last hosted a stage in 2001 when Gianluca Bortolami beat Petr Wrolich in a 2-rider sprint.

 

 

 

The weather

Recently, the weather in Switzerland has been pretty bad and unfortunately nothing seems to change for the start of the Tour de Suisse. Saturday is forecasted to be rainy as there’s a 50-75% chance of rain all day. In total, 15mm of rain are forecasted in the city of Baar. The maximum temperature will be 19 degrees.

 

There will be a very light wind from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will have tailwind in the first part and headwind in the second part. The wind may pick up slightly in the second half of the stage.

 

The favourites

When the course for the Tour de Suisse was presented, the prologue specialists were licking their lips in anticipation. For several years, the Swiss race always started with a technically challenging and very hilly opener that suited explosive puncheurs with great bike-handling skills. However, the course is Baar can’t be compared to the tough opener in Lugano that was used for a number of years and the design of the prologue is much more suited to time trial specialists.

 

Unfortunately, it seems that the stage could be a bit of a lottery. In cycling, it’s hugely frustrating when an exciting time trial is destroyed by bad weather. We have already had too much of that in 2016: the Tour de Romandie prologue saw the final riders ride under torrential rain and the same happened in the long time trial at the Giro d’Italia. The weather forecast predicts more rain for Saturday but luckily it seems that the wind will be pretty similar for all riders.

 

There’s an equal chance for rain throughout the entire afternoon so it is a lottery when it comes to deciding when to start. On this kind of technical course, wet roads will have a massive impact and if some riders have dry roads, there will be no chance for the riders that are riding under the rain. It seems unlikely that there won’t be rain at some point so let’s hope that the roads stay wet throughout the entire stage. At least that will give everybody the same conditions. In any case, this preview is also a bit of a lottery as everything will depend on the weather.

 

Wet roads will definitely change the outcome of the stage even if everybody will be riding in the rain. The course is a typical prologue with a mix of long straights where the engines can make a difference and a very technical second half. This means that it suits the traditional prologue specialists and the sprinters who can benefit from their great bike-handling skills and acceleration on this kind of course. However, if it’s rainy, the bike-handling becomes even more important and probably tips the balance towards the sprinters.

 

Furthermore, there’s the element of risk. We are very close to the start of the Tour de France and this means that many riders won’t risk everything for a good result here. Riders like Geraint Thomas, Wilco Kelderman and Tejay van Garderen who are going for GC here, have their eyes firmly on July are less likely to make big gambles. If it’s rainy, we don’t expect the GC riders to be in contention for the stage win.

 

In any case, Fabian Cancellara stands out as the favourite. The Swiss has often proved that he is the best prologue rider in the world, especially if the course is technical. He may no longer be the time triallist he once was, but in a short time trial he is still very hard to beat. His bike-handling skills are outstanding and he is the biggest engine in this field so the course is tailor-made for him.

 

Cancellara has had so much bad luck in the last two years. This year he has been on fire right from the start and has been riding some excellent time trials, most notably in Algarve and Tirreno-Adriatico where he beat some stellar time triallists. He especially got huge respect when he beat the record on the flat course in the Italian race and posted a time that was in a class of his own. However, since then nothing has gone right for him as his classics season was marred by crashes and he fell ill on the eve of the opening Giro time trial. The same happened in 2015 when he was aiming for the victory in the Swiss prologue.

 

Now Cancellara has been building form for the final part of his career and there is little doubt that he will be very motivated to get the leader’s jersey one final time in his home race. Of course his many crashes mean that he won’t take overwhelming risks but his motivation will be better than that of many of the Tour contenders. In fact, the rainy conditions should only favour a great bike-handler like Cancellara. If he has the same conditions as his rivals, Cancellara is clearly the favourite.

 

Cancellara’s biggest rival is likely to be Michael Matthews. The Australian has always been regarded as a solid time triallist for short TTs. After all he won the opening Tour de Slovenie time trial in 2014. However, he has never been regarded as real specialist but that has clearly changed recently. Last year he was 8th in the Paris-Nice prologue but his big breakthrough came in the 2016 edition of the French race where he won the opener, beating a very classy field.

 

The result has given him lots of motivation for this opening stage and he has trained a lot on his time trial bike to prepare. He has just returned from a training camp, just like he did for Paris-Nice, and he has proved that he can get into excellent condition without any racing. The technical course should suit him really well and the rainy conditions won’t hamper him either.

 

If it had been dry, Peter Sagan would probably not be a real contender for the win here. However, the Slovakian is the best bike-handler in the field and even though he has the Tour de France coming up, he always seems to risk more than his rivals. He won the prologue in this race  a few years ago but that course was completely different as it was one for puncheurs with great bike-handling skills which made it tailor-made for Sagan. This course is a bit more about power and so suits him less but he has done very good short, technical TTs in the past, most notably in California in 2015. This year Sagan has been back at his best level and he really impressed most in California. If he can limit his losses in the first half, he can win the stage by doing a great second part.

 

IAM are hugely motivated for this race as it’s their big home event. They have several good cards to play in the prologue but Reto Hollenstein is their best option. The Swiss has always been a good time triallist but this year he has really stepped up his level massively. He has been close to the top 10 in almost every time trial but his best performances have come recently when he was seventh and third in the prologues in Romandie and Belgium respectively. Prologues seem to be the discipline where he really excels and he should like this course. He will take more risks than his rivals in a race that is a big goal for him.

 

Ion Izagirre has always been one of the best time triallistson hilly courses but recently he has developed into a bit of a prologue specialist too. He won the Tour de Romandie prologue, he was 5th in the ParisNice prologue and last year he was 8th in the Swiss opener. He is not as powerful on the flats as some of the big engines but he is one of the best bike-handlers in the peloton. In Romandie, he made all the difference on the technical descent and he should really find the second half of this course to his liking. Furthermore, he is strong in the rain.

 

Geraint Thomas was once one of the best prologue riders in the world. However, he has focused a bit more on his climbing and is no longer the prologue rider he once was. However, he is still very strong in the discipline as he proved in Paris-Nice where he was sixth. The Sky riders always come out with all guns blazing at this time of the year after the training camp in Tenerife and we expect Thomas to be at a very high level in this race. However, if he will be riding on wet roads, we doubt that he will take the risks to be competitive.

 

Wilco Kelderman started his career as a great time triallist but then seemed to lose the edge as he improved his climbing. Now the Dutchman is no longer climbing as well as he once did but he is time trialling better than ever. Most will remember what a great time trial he did at last year’s Tour and that he beat Dumoulin at the Dutch championships. He is better in longer TTs but he is a solid prologue rider too. Last year he was second in the relatively short Eneco Tour TT and he did a great prologue in Paris-Nice. However, like Thomas, he may not be willing to take too many risks.

 

FDJ have Johan Le Bon for this stage. The Frenchman has always been a good time triallist but this year he has really upped his game. He rode to a marvelous second behind Cancellara in the Tirreno TT, was fifth in the De Panne TT and recently took second behind Coquard in the Boucles de la Mayenne prologue. That race showed that his form is not too bad and he will be eager to make amends for the slightly disappointing result in this race.

 

A few years ago, Tobias Ludvigsson was on track to becoming one of the great TT specialists. Suddenly, his progress stopped but now he is back at a very high level. This year he has been better than ever and his fourth place in the Giro prologue was a bit of a breakthrough. However, he seemed to fade a bit towards the end of the Giro so it remains to be seen how he has recovered. Furthermore, the course is probably a bit too technical for him.

 

Alex Dowsett has one of the biggest engines but he has never really lived up to the potential he showed when he beat Wiggins at the 2013 Giro. However, he is still a very solid time triallist and he can do well on both short and long courses. He is part of the Movistar preselection for the Tour so he wants to prove that he is in great shape. This is a big chance for him to do so and so he will be ready to go full gas. The course may be a bit too technical though.

 

Usually, Maciej Bodnar would have been one of the biggest favourites for this kind of stage. Since he joined Tinkoff, he has stepped up his level massively and he has done some excellent time trials in the last two years. Last year he was fourth in the Tirreno prologue, fifth in the Tirreno TT and second I the Vuelta TT and this year he was fifth at Tirreno. More importantly, he won the time trial in De Panne which is another flat, technical stage. The Pole is a great bike-handler and should really find this course to his liking. However, he has just come back from injury after he crashed at training during the classics and he was not in best form in Luxembourg. We doubt that he has the condition to win this stage.

 

The big joker for the stage is Fernando Gaviria. There seems to be no limit to his potential but prologues at this level are a bit of untested territory. However, he has a background on the track, is a great bike-handler and very explosive. On paper, he has all the skills to do this kind of exercise so he could very well deliver a huge surprise here. He has just come back from injury and even though he was good at Heistse Pijl, he is clearly not at his best yet. However, that may play less of a role in this kind of stage.

 

Patrick Bevin delivered a bit of a surprise when he finished third in the Paris-Nice prologue. He has never regarded himself as a TT specialist but has really improved a lot. He will probably never be a rider for the long time trials but his great bike-handling skills and explosiveness make him a great prologue rider. After an injury-marred spring, he is back on form and he could deliver another surprise on a course that suits him well.

 

Etixx-QuickStep also have Yves Lampaert as a solid candidate. The Belgian has always been a TT specialist but since he joined the WorldTour he has become a lot stronger. He was fifth in the Belgium Tour prologue but claimed that he had the legs to finish third if he had not made a mistake in the finale. His form is clearly good and he will be eager to build on what he showed in his home race.

 

In addition to Hollestein, IAM have Dries Devenyns and Martin Elmiger. Both were among the best in the Belgium Tour prologue and Devenyns was also in the top 10 in Paris-Nice. Elmiger has always done very good prologues in his home race and both will be extremely motivated for what is a big event for IAM. For this kind of course, Elmiger probably has the best chance but an in-form Devenyns can also do well.

 

Ion Izagirre is the famous Izagirre brother but Gorka is actually a good time triallist too. He is not at his brother’s level but he has done solid prologues in the past, most notably in Romandie where he was second. That course had a small climb and so suited him a bit better but on a technical course he will always be able to do well.

 

Lars Boom was once one of the best prologue riders in the world but he is no longer the time triallist he once was. However, on certain occasions, he delivers a good TT. He hasn’t really done so in 2016 – most recently he was seventh in the Belgium Tour prologue – but you can never count him out on wet, technical course.

 

Silvan Dillier will be hugely motivated for his home race. He has always been a solid time triallist but he has never really been one of the best. However, he did a very good prologue in the Giro and he will take more risks than most as this is a major highlight on his calendar. On the other hand, he has just returned from injury so it remains to be seen how he is going.

 

Finally, we will point to Danny Van Poppel. The Dutchman has done some solid prologues in the past. He has won in Luxembourg and last year he was fifth at Ster ZLM Toer. He is definitely not a specialist but on a course where it’s more about explosiveness and bike-handling skills, he can deliver a surprise.

 

UPDATE: Matthias Brändle has been brought in as replacement for Stefan Denifl. He is of course one of the favourites for this prologue.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Matthias Brändle, Reto Hollenstein, Ion Izagirre, Geraint Thomas, Wilco Kelderman, Johan Le Bon, Tobias Ludvigsson, Alex Dowsett, Maciej Bodnar

Jokers: Fernando Gaviria, Patrick Bevin, Yves Lampaert, Martin Elmiger, Gorka Izagirre, Dries Devenyns, Lars Boom, Silvan Dillier, Danny Van Poppel