With a dominant performance, Peter Sagan again proved that he doesn’t need a lead-out train to win bunch sprints and that he has been sprinting better than usual for most of 2016. He is now the sole record holder of stage wins in the Swiss race and he has another great chance to add to his tally in stage 3 whose lumpy parcours make it another perfect opportunity for the world champion.

 

The course

The 2016 Tour de Suisse can clearly be split into two halves. While the final part will be all about the GC, the first half is a festival for the strong sprinters and classics riders. They had their first chance in the first road stage and Monday’s third stage is another typical Tour de Suisse stage that is tailor-made for that kind of riders. As it is usually the case in the Swiss race, a lumpy day ends with a few laps of a challenging circuit that includes a few climbs, providing launch pads for attacks and challenging terrain for the pure sprinters.

 

The 192.6km stage will bring the riders from Grosswangen to Rheinfelden and as usual in Switzerland, a total amount of climbing of 1918m means that it is far from being a flat affair. First the riders will do one lap of a lumpy 51.4km circuit on the eastern outskirts of the starting city before they will start their northerly journey towards Rheinfelden. The first part is flat but as the riders get closer to the finish, the terrain becomes hillier. The first challenge is the category 2 climb of Hauenstein(7km, 4.3%) and then the riders will tackle the category 3 Sissacherflue (3km, 8.1%) before flat roads will lead to the first passage of the finish line.

 

The final part of the race is made up of two laps of the 27km finishing circuit. It’s mainly flat but has two short, sharp category 3 climbs. The first challenge is the Sonnenberg (2.2km, 6.5%) whose summit comes with 17.5km to go, and then it’s time for the Schöneberg (1.3km , 11.5%) whose top is located six kilometres later. After the descent, flat roads along the Rhine river will lead to the finish which comes at the end of a very long, straight road. The final 400m are slightly uphill.

 

Rheinfelden last hosted a stage in 2004 when Robbie McEwen won a bunch sprint. Fred Rodriguez was the fastest four years earlier.

 

 

 

The weather

After a rainy start, the riders had luck as they had dry roads for today’s print. They need a similar kind of fortune for stage 3 ad Monday is forecasted to be rainy, with a 75% chance of rain throughout the entire day. There will be a maximum temperature of 17 degrees and the sun may break through on a few occasions.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that it will be a crosswind during the long run from the start to the finish. On the circuit, it will first be a tailwind, then a headwind on the two climb and finally a tailwind for the final kilometres.

 

The favourites

He failed to win a stage at his ill-fated debut in his neo-pro season but since then Peter Sagan has been the king of the Tour de Suisse. Winning a stage every year since 2011, today’s impressive victory made him the lone record holder with 12 stage victories, one more than local legends Hugo Koblet and Ferdi Kubler. At just 26 years of age, Sagan will be able to add to his tally for a long time so he is very likely to set a record that will be almost impossible to beat.

 

It is no wonder that Sagan has always been so strong in Switzerland. The terrain is never flat and the lumpy northern part of the country is tailor-made for his characteristics. As the organizers also prefer to include difficult finishing circuits, technical finales and uphill sprints, it’s simply the perfect stomping ground for Sagan. In the past, he has had to contend with a pretty strong sprinting field as it has been the preferred preparation for similar riders like John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff but this year’s unusually tough course has made many prefer the Dauphiné and Sagan, Michal Matthews and Fernando Gaviria stand out in a relatively poor field of sprinters. With another two sprint stages coming up, there is no reason that Sagan can’t make it 14 wins before we get to the mountains on Sunday.

 

Today’s sprint was another perfect one for Sagan. As expected Orica-GreenEDGE and Etixx-QuickStep had the best trains and Sagan seemed to be on his own pretty far from the finish. However, he again proved that he is a master when it comes to positioning, easily pushing Matti Breschel off Matthews’ wheel. As he has always been faster than the Australian, he was in prime position, and the only real threat was Fernando Gaviria. However, the combination of his crash and a hard chase effort prompted the Colombian to swing off with 1km to go and left it to Maximilano Richeze to do the sprint for Etixx-QuickStep. From there, the outcome was never in doubt.

 

Gaviria’s crash was a big shame as it prevented us from seeing a direct battle between the Colombian and Sagan. Furthermore, it completely changed the nature of the sprint. Richeze was ready to move to the front with Gaviria on his wheel and there is no doubt that the Argentinean who completely dominated the sprints at last year’s Giro d’Italia in service of Sacha Modolo, would have passed Magnus Cort and the Orica train with ease. That would have completely changed the dynamic of the sprint.

 

At the same time, there doesn’t seem to be an end to Fabian Cancellara’s travails. Crashes in the classics and illness at the Giro had briefly been replaced by some joy after his excellent prologue but he only got one day in yellow. He had proved his class by beating Jurgen Roelandts in the intermediate sprint but he can’t blame anyone but himself for being inattentive in the finale. That cost him what could be his final leader’s jersey in his home race.

 

However, Cancellara is never one to give up and he will be looking for opportunities to take it back in the next two stages. His best chance comes in tomorrow’s third stage whose lumpy finishing circuit suits him pretty well. However, Sagan now looms as a threat too and the Slovakian is very likely to pick up enough seconds before we get to Wednesday.

 

Today Trek did all the work to control the race but they can now leave it to Lotto Soudal. However, they will probably get an easy start as everybody knows that the stage will be firmly controlled. A long-distance break has no chance so most will be keen to save energy for later. Hence, we expect a break to be established straight from the gun and it should be made up of riders from teams like Roompot, Roth, Verva, CCC, FDJ and Ag2r.

 

Lotto Soudal will do the work to control things. They would love the break to pick up the bonus seconds but as the time gaps are small, they have to keep them pretty close. This means that there’s no real incentive for the sprint teams to lend them a hand and only if the situation becomes dangerous can we expect Tinkoff, Etixx-QuickStep and Orica-GreenEDGE to come to the fore.

 

While Lotto Soudal want the escapees to take the bonus seconds, things are different for Trek. Cancellara’s best chance to get back into yellow is by beating Roelandts in the two sprints. One second is not enough – the exact times from the time trial are in the Belgian’s favour – so he needs to gain two seconds. That means that he probably needs to be up there in both sprints so we expect Trek to try to bring the break back before we get to the first sprint just after the first passage of the line. Roelandts and Cancellara will probably be battling it out in both sprints and as we saw today, it’s hard to predict the outcome. Roelandts is probably slightly faster but as today’s sprint showed – Roelandts was briefly hampered by Stuyven – he doesn’t need to make many mistakes to be beaten.

 

If the break is caught already at this point, we can expect the stage to be aggressive. The two final climbs are pretty steep and the terrain is much better suited to late attacks than it was today. We have little doubt that Philippe Gilbert will try at some point and if Cancellara hasn’t gained enough time in the sprints, he will do so too.

 

Much will depend on the approach from Orica-GreenEDGE. It will be hard for Matthews to beat Sagan and Gaviria in a sprint so Michael Albasini will probably be allowed to play his card by joining the attacks. If Gaviria is not at 100% yet, Zdnenek Stybar and Petr Vakoc may do so too and if we get a strong group with riders from Orica-GreenEDGE and Etixx-QuickStep, it will be up to Tinkoff and Lotto Soudal to bring them back. Sagan doesn’t have a strong team here so it won’t be easy to control the finale. It’s not impossible that he will use his usual tactic of neutralizing the attacks by following the moves himself.

 

If it’s all left to Tinkoff and Lotto Soudal, a group of classics riders can make it to the finish but the most likely outcome is a reduced bunch sprint. However, we expect the group to be a lot smaller than it was today as the race should be more aggressive and the climbs are closer to the finish. On the other hand, there will be a headwind on the climbs and this will make it more manageable for some of the sprinters.

 

Today we had Gaviria as our favourite. At the time of writing, Etixx-QuickStep have not released any information about his injuries. He didn’t seem to be badly hurt as it just looked like he had some road rash after a typical crash in the rain. However, he can still be pretty sore one day after such a tumble so he may not be at 100%. On paper, the course suits him down to the ground as he is an excellent climber but the combination of his crash and the fact that he is still far from being 100% tips the balance in favour of Sagan.

 

Sagan is not as fast as Gaviria but this year he seems to be faster than ever. He has managed to challenge some of the pure sprinters whom he is usually not able to beat in flat sprints. Most notably, he did so when he beat some very fast guys in a pure sprint on stage 1 of the Tour of California.

 

On paper, only Gaviria and maybe Van Poppel are faster than him in this race but at the end of a tough race with two climbs near the finish, things can be different. Furthermore, Sagan is excellent at positioning himself and this makes him the most consistent sprinter in the world. He won’t have much team support as lead-out man Oscar Gatto is in terrible condition but as he showed today, that’s not a big issue. He knows that it’s all about picking the right wheel in the finale and unless Gaviria is at 100%, we doubt that anyone can beat the world champion. Sagan is our favourite to win the stage.

 

There is no doubt that Fernando Gaviria is the fastest rider in this field but today’s crash makes his level very uncertain. Furthermore, he missed all his races in May due to an injury and he has just returned to racing at Heistse Pijl. That race proved that he is far from his best as he exploded spectacularly when he attacked on the final climb and today he again showed signs of weakness when he swung off while riding in a great position for the sprint.

 

Gaviria is a great climber so usually he should easily be able to survive climbs like these but with his current form and his crash there are no guarantees. Furthermore, the classics showed that he often loses quite a bit of speed if the race has been hard and so he may not be able to beat Sagan even if he is there at the finish.

 

However, Gaviria has a one big asset: his train. Richeze is one of the best lead-out riders in the world and the Argentinean was ready to deliver his captain in today’s stage. We have little doubt that Gaviria had been dropped off in the perfect position if he had had the legs to do the sprint. That’s a big advantage for the Colombian and if it comes down to a battle on pure speed, no one is going to beat the Colombian.

 

Today Orica-GreenEDGE dominated the sprint but Michael Matthews lacked the legs to finish it off.  However, it’s his first race for almost two months so he should get better during the race. Tomorrow’s stage suits him better as the finale is harder and he usually needs a tough race to win.

 

Matthews is not as fast as Gaviria and Sagan but as today’s stage proved, he has a very strong team to support him. Lead-out men Magnus Cort and Michael Albasini should be able to survive the climb and that will provide him with a great train. If Gaviria is back to his best, it won’t be easy to hold off Richeze and the Colombian but otherwise it should be another textbook lead-out for Matthews. It won’t be easy to beat the faster guys but in an uphill sprint, it is not impossible.

 

As we said yesterday, Danny Van Poppel is one of the fastest riders here and he proved us right as he won the sprint for seventh behind the split. The Dutchman has proved his speed on several occasions this year when he finally started his year after a long break with a knee injury. He showed great form in California where he climbed very well so he should be able to survive these short, steep climbs. The big problem is that Sky are mainly here for the GC so he won’t have much support. That cost him in today’s stage but may be less of a problem tomorrow as the less technical finish make lead-outs less important. The uphill sprint suits him well and he has the speed to challenge the best.

 

We doubt that anyone is fast enough to beat Sagan, Matthews, Gaviria or Van Poppel in a bunch sprint so the rest of our stage win picks will be riders that can escape on the final climbs. The prime pick is of course Michael Albasini. He is in his home race and so he will be given a certain amount of freedom. We expect him to be allowed to follow the moves on the final climbs and the circuit generally suits him very well. He showed his good form in Gippingen last Thursday where he spent the race in the break and he is a master in winning stages at WorldTour races. He has had his best season ever and even a rider like Gilbert is not fast enough to beat him in a sprint. If he is in the right breakaway, Albasini will be almost impossible to beat.

 

As said, we expect Philippe Gilbert to attack in the finale. By winning two stages in Luxembourg, the Belgian proved that he is back in form following his finger injury and he is eager to test himself for the Belgian Championships in the first stages here. He knows that he won’t win a sprint so he will try to make a move on the climbs that suit him really well. He is fast in a sprint and so will have options if he joins the right group.

 

His big rival in Luxembourg was overall winner Maurits Lammertink. The Dutchman has been on fire all year, most notably in the Ardennes classics as he was one of the strongest in both Amstel Gold Race and Brabantse Pijl. His win in Luxembourg shows that he is back in good form and this circuit is one that suits him really well. The Dutchman is strong on short climbs and faster than most in a sprint.

 

Paul Martens has had a bad start to the year but found his legs in Norway where he achieved several top results. The German is an Ardennes specialist who likes short, steep climbs and he is so fast that he has won reduced bunch sprints in the past. Among the potential attackers, he is probably the one with the best chance to beat Albasini in a sprint.

 

If Gaviria is not at 100%, Petr Vakoc and Zdenek Stybar will be allowed to attack in the finale. Both like short steep climbs and have the right skills to do well here as they are also fast in a sprint. Vakoc is probably the fastest but many will remember that Stybar has beaten Richeze in a sprint at the Eneco Tour so he is definitely not slow. If both can make it into the right group in the finale, they can even play the tactical game which Stybar masters better than most.

 

As said, Fabian Cancellara will do everything to get the yellow jersey back so if he can’t do it in the sprints, he will attack. His prologue shows that his form is good and the circuit suits him well. His classics performances prove that he is very strong in a sprint at the end of a hard race and he can also try a solo move in the finale.

 

Simon Geschke had a bad Ardennes campaign but his great prologue shows that the form is now there. The German should find the circuit to his liking and is fast in a sprint from a small group. The problem is that there are a few riders that are faster.

 

Matti Breschel had an illness-marred spring but top 10 results at Heistse Pijl and in Gippingen prove that he is back on track. If he is at 100%, this is a great circuit for him. He will try his hand in the sprint but he won’t be able to beat the fastest guys so his best chance will be to attack. We are not sure that his form is good enough to follow the likes of Albasini and Gilbert but if he is there, he has the speed to win a sprint from a small group.

 

Finally, we will point to the IAM pair of Martin Elmiger and Dries Devenyns. Both showed great form in the Belgium Tour and Elmiger confirmed it with a great prologue. Devenyns is one of the best on climbs like these and if he is at 100%, Elmiger may be able to follow too. While the Swiss has the speed to win a sprint, the Belgian will have to make a late attack just as he did when he won stage 2 of the Belgium Tour.

 

If you are looking for more sprinters, keep an eye on Reinardt van Rensburg, Kevin Reza, Jurgen Roelandts, Davide Cimolai, Andrea Pasqualon, Raymond Kreder, Tom Van Asbroeck, Sven Erik Bystrøm, Silvan Dillier, Sebastien Turgot, Juan Jose Lobato, Maciej Paterski, Simone Ponzi and Jordi Simon who can all take their chance if they have survived the climbs.

 

UPDATE: Gaviria only suffered abrasions on his left thigh

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan (sprint)

Other winner candidates: Fernando Gaviria, Michael Matthews (sprint)

Outsiders: Danny Van Poppel (sprint), Michael Albasini (late attack), Philippe Gilbert (late attack), Maurits Lammertink (late attack)

Jokers: Paul Martens, Petr Vakoc, Zdenek Stybar, Fabian Cancellara, Simon Geschke, Matti Breschel, Martin Elmiger, Dries Devenyns, Maciej Paterski (all with a late attack)