While the Tour de Suisse confirmed its reputation as the race with the most dangerous bunch sprints and Fernando Gaviria again showed his graciousness by giving a win to his lead-out man, all the GC riders got safely through the easiest stage of the race. Now they are ready to bring the Peter Sagan show to an end in the first of three consecutive summit finishes where the new climb in Cari will give the first true indication of who’s going to win this year’s race.

 

The course

The first part of the Tour de Suisse was a bit of a waiting game for the GC riders. Small time gaps opened up in the prologue but otherwise it has all been about staying safe in the relatively flat terrain. After four days of racing, it is finally time for them to test their climbing legs in the first of three consecutive summit finishes. As it has become popular, it is a short intense affair that will not just be all about the final climb as the riders will also go up the mighty Furkapass and Gotthardpass which means that the scene is set for the first big battle in the mountains.

 

The short 136.4km stage will bring the riders from Brig-Glis to the uphill finish in Cari and has no less than 3386m of climbing over the short distance. The first part of the stage consists of a long northeasterly run and it is uphill right from the start. The road will climb gradually until the HC climb of Furkapass officially starts at the 40.3km mark. It averages 6.6% over 16.1km and the summit comes at a mighty 2436m above sea level. Then there’s a short descent before the riders climb back up to more than 2000m of altitude via the 8.3km long category 1 climb to the top of the Gotthardpass, an ascent that averages 7.1%.

 

From the top, only 43.6km remain and they will see the riders head west to the final climb. It’s a long, gradual descent that only has one technical part along the way. The easy part comes to an abrupt end at the bottom of the final HC climb which starts with 11.2km to go. It averages 7.5% over 10.1km and is pretty regular with gradients of 7-8% for most of the time. The hardest part comes in the middle and then a flat plateau leads to another regular section. One kilometre from the top, it has its steepest part of 11.2%. The KOM sprint comes with 1.2km to go but the climb continues all the way to the finish. There are multiple hairpins turns in the final kilometres but the final 1500m are mostly straight with just one sharp turn 700m from the finish.

 

Cari har not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour de Suisse has always been known as one of the rainiest races on the calendar and the 2016 edition will be one of the wettest yet. After a sunny morning, the risk of rain will increase throughout the entire day and there will be a 75% chance of wet conditions in the finale. The maximumtemperature in Cari will be 19 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction. This means that there will be a cross-tailwind until the riders get to the bottom of the Gotthardpass. There will be a headwind on that climb and then a crosswind will lead to the bottom of the final climb where there will be a combination of tail-and crosswind. It will be a tailwind between the 1700m and 800m to go marks and then a crosswind after the final turn.

 

The favourites

It’s the same every year. The Tour de Suisse organizers always design a very dangerous finale with a late turn and it always creates a hugely dramatic and dangerous bunch sprint. Every year riders complain about the safety and ask for initiatives to be taken. However, nothing ever changes and it would be a surprise if there’s not another late turn in a sprint in 2017.

 

While some complained about the safety of the sprint, Maximilano Richeze finally got rewarded for his huge job as one of the best lead-out men in the world. As we said yesterday, there was little doubt that the Argentinean would win the battle of the trains and lead Fernando Gaviria through the final turn. However, instead of launching his devastating sprint, Gaviria opted to sit up and give his teammate the win, just like he did when he allowed lead-out man Davide Martinelli to win a stage at Tour La Provence in February when a late crash had caused some chaos. The Colombian is turning out to be one of the nice guys among the sprinters, apparently willing to reward his teammates whenever he sees his chance.

 

For Peter Sagan, it was a frustrating near-miss. The Slovakian may have made a mistake as he decided to stay on Gaviria’s wheel when his lead-out man Oscar Gatto surged to the front just before the final turn. If he had jumped on the Italian’s wheel, the outcome might have been different. It was a probably a bad choice as it would always be difficult to beat Gaviria in a battle on pure speed so he should have been a bit more aggressive in the finale.

 

He could console himself with the fact that he retained the yellow jersey but now the Sagan show has come to an end. He may test himself in a breakaway later in the race but otherwise he will disappear into anonymity. The final five days are all about the GC and it will all kick off with three brutal summit finishes in a row.

 

Wednesday’s new finale in Cari will give the first real indication of who’s going to win the race. Unfortunately, the bad weather will continue as massive amounts of rain are expected in Cari. That makes it risky to send riders up the mighty Furkapass and Gotthardpass but at the moment, it seems that it will be raining, not snowing, at the top of the climbs. That makes it likely that it won’t be necessary to alter the course and so we will base this preview on the assumption that the stage can go on as planned. However, if the conditions get too risky, the organizers may have to change their plans as they have often done in past editions of the race.

 

Stage 5 is another example of the short, intensive mountain stages that have become increasingly popular in the last few years. As the Dauphiné again showed, these stages are often the hardest and most aggressive, especially if they have climbs all day. On Wednesday, it will be uphill for the first 56km and this should make it a very tough stage where numerous attacks are launched.

 

Usually, these stages are very good for breakaways but as it’s the first mountain stage and the time gaps are small, the GC teams will probably control things. It won’t be easy, especially if a break hasn’t gone clear when we get to the Furkapass. If that’s the case, a strong group of climbers could very well escape and it takes a very good team to bring them back. On the other hand, the good climbers in this race still have their eyes on the GC and so they are less willing to take risks. Hence, many of them will probably opt for a conservative approach and that means that it will be easier for the GC teams to control things.

 

Tinkoff will do nothing to defend the jersey so it will be interesting to see which teams take responsibility when the break has gone clear. Sky, BMC, Katusha and Lampre-Merida have the big pre-race favourites so we expect an alliance between these teams to form. Especially Sky have a very good group of climbers and if they take charge, they can both bring the breakaway back and make the race hard and selective. The GC teams will probably ride tempo on the first two climbs and then it will come down to a battle between the GC riders on the final climb.

 

The final climb may not be as grueling as the feared Rettenbachferner which comes on Friday but it is definitely not to be underestimated. It’s a very regular climb with steep percentages and it gives no room for recovery. With a tailwind on most of the climb, rather big time gaps can be created. On the other hand, it’s the first of three consecutive mountain stages so many of the favourites will probably have a cautious approach.

 

Geraint Thomas is not a pure climber but the Welshman has proved that he can now match the best even on the hardest climbs. The Brit first really showed what he can do when he was second behind then-teammate Richie Porte in the queen stage at last year’s Paris-Nice and then went on to climb with the best in both the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de France. This year it has been all about stage racing and climbing and he only did one cobbled classic, the Tour of Flanders. He is set to be the second option for Sky at the Tour de France and this is his final big test.

 

Like the rest of the Sky team, Thomas has been training at altitude in Tenerife and history shows that the Sky riders always come out with all guns blazing after such a camp. Last year Thomas was one of the very strongest on the Rettenbachferner and he could have finished a lot better if he had not done so much work. This year he is probably even stronger as he has been fully focused on his climbing. He looked very strong when the attacks were launched on the short climb in stage 3.

 

We still have some doubts about Thomas’ ability to win the race but that’s mostly a question of consistency. In the past, he has often suffered in later mountain stages but he is usually very strong in the first uphill test. Tomorrow’s regular climb suits him down to the ground and he has a very strong team to set the brutal, steady pace that suits him so well. We expect Thomas to come out on top in the first GC battle.

 

His biggest rival will probably be Tejay van Garderen. The American is set to share leadership at the Tour with Richie Porte and the team have decided to split their leaders, with Porte going to the Dauphiné and van Garderen leading the team in Switzerland which is a very important race for the squad due to its Swiss ties. Van Garderen has followed a very similar schedule to what he did last year and that worked out really well. Back then, he came out from his post-spring break with all guns blazing, beating Froome in a mountain stage at the Dauphiné and nearly taking the overall victory in the tough French race.

 

Nothing suggests that it will be any different in 2016. Van Garderen was on track for a great Tour de France until he fell ill so there is really no reason to change a winning formula. If anything, he will be even more motivated to do well here to prove to the BMC management that he deserves to have the same status as Porte who realistically is the team’s best podium candidate at the Tour.

 

A few years ago, we were not too impressed by van Garderen’s climbing skills. The American always seemed to go into the red zone way too early and often exploded spectacularly. However, in the last two years, he has really stepped up his level. In the past, he always to defend himself in the mountains but nowadays he is one of the best on the climbs and can even go on the attack. He has become a master in gauging his efforts and very often finishes with the best in the high mountains. Van Garderen should be well-suited to this climb and would love to stamp his authority on the race right from the start.

 

It would have been very interesting to see how the Giro had panned out if Astana had been riding for Michele Scarponi. The Italian was by far one of the best climbers in the race and he was definitely strong enough to finish on the podium. Now he tries to do the Giro-Suisse double which has always been a difficult one. However, the problems usually arrive later in the race and the Giro riders are often very good in the first mountain stages. Scarponi did a very good prologue on a course that didn’t suit him and this is an indication that he is going well. If he still has his Giro legs, he will be hard to beat her.

 

There’s a general rule that says that you should never bet against Rui Costa in the month of June. The Portuguese has been unstoppable at this point of the year for four years. He won the Tour de Suisse in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and last year he was at the podium in the Dauphiné. As he is not aiming for the GC at the Tour, he can allow himself to go a bit deeper than the likes of Thomas and van Garderen in this race and he looked very strong on stage 3.

 

Costa is not a pure climber but this year he has been climbing better than ever. He surprised himself on the very steep climbs in Pais Vasco which don’t suit him at all and he should be more comfortable on the regular climbs here. He will never win the big mountain stages in the grand tours but history shows that it’s different in Switzerland. Furthermore, he has the advantage of a very fast sprint.

 

We are very curious to see what Warren Barguil can do. Despite being involved in the training crash, he quickly returned to form and rode very well in Pais Vasco. He had an excellent Ardennes campaign where he was clearly one of the strongest riders.

 

Now he has been preparing for the Tour where he is targeting a top 10 and he has just returned from a training camp in Sierra Nevada. There are no guarantees that he will already be good in this race – after all he has never really been at his best in the build-up to a grand tour. However, he has really stepped up in 2016 and we won’t be surprised to see a much stronger Barguil. The final climb should suit a pure climber like him and he has a decent kick if it comes down to a sprint,

 

One of the big question marks for the race is Miguel Angel Lopez. The Colombian had a fantastic neo-pro season in 2015 as he beat several stars on a tough stage in the Vuelta a Burgos and rode with the best on the Rettenbachferner in this race. When he won the queen stage in San Luis in January, it looked like his was on track for a fantastic 2016 season but nothing has worked out though. He has had to deal with health issues and has been nowhere to be seen on the climbs. However, this race has always been his big goal for the first half of the season and he has prepared meticulously. Last year he was really strong when he arrived in Switzerland and there is little doubt that he is one of the greatest climbing talents in the world. The mountainous course is tailor-made for him so if he is finally back at his real level, he could very well deliver a massive surprise here. His prologue was excellent so everything suggests that he is on fire.

 

Simon Spilak goes into the race as the defending champion but the 2015 season has been a disappointment for the versatile Slovenian. He suffered from illness in the spring and never found his best form for the races where he usually shines. He still finished 8th in Pais Vasco and 7th in Romandie but he was a shadow of his usual consistent self.

 

Now he has prepared for the Tour de Suisse and he has not had to deal with any health issues. He rode solidly in the Belgium Tour when he made his comeback but unfortunately the bad crash prevented us from seeing what he could do in the queen stage. However, Spilak never fails to time his condition so he should be riding well here. He is a very aggressive rider who is never afraid of going on the attack. On the other hand, one of his main attributes is his consistency so he may opt for a big of caution in this first mountain test. As he is not a fast sprinter, he has to ride away to win the stage.

 

Ion Izagirre has been very strong all year and his prologue proved that he is in very good condition for this race. Initially, he was not set to do the Tour but the plans may change. Nonetheless, his big goal is to do well in one-week stage races so he will be very motivated here. However, he has a solid chance to take yellow if he can just follow the best so he won’t ride too aggressively. Furthermore, he hasn’t proved that he can be with the strongest on the longer climbs and this stage could be a bit too hard for him.

 

Is Andrew Talansky back on track? In 2013 and 2014, he seemed to be one of the future grand tour stars, most notably with his Dauphiné victory, but since then nothing has worked for the talented American.  This year he has done things differently and it seems to pay off. He rode poorly in the spring but at the Tour of California he suddenly looked like his former self. He rode in service of Lawson Craddock and set the pace for most of the time on the final climb in the queen stage. He turned out to be much stronger than his leader whom he even had to pace to the finish and then he finished second in the time trial to take fourth overall. He is likely to be even stronger in this race which is the big test of whether we can expect him to return to his former self. If he has the legs he had at the 2013 and 2014 Dauphiné, he will get very far in a stage like this.

 

For IAM, this race is one of the most important events on the entire calendar and after a one-year absence their grand tour leader Mathias Frank returns. He was very close to victory in 2014 and will be eager to do better this time. Luckily, he seems to be back at his best level. In 2015, he finished in the top 10 at the Tour but he was never really at his 2014 level. This year he has been much better. In Romandie, he would have done much better if he hadn’t made a mistake on the very cold queen stage where he took off his jacket and so got too cold to deliver his best. Frank returned to racing in Luxembourg where he proved that he is in great form as he finished third in the queen stage after having bridged across to a strong break on the hardest climb of the race. This stage suits him well but his main goal is the GC and he will probably ride too defensively to win the stage.

 

Joe Dombrowski is one of the few riders coming from the Giro. The Italian grand tour was a bit of a WorldTour breakthrough for the American who finally proved his huge climbing talent on the biggest scene. He no longer has any health issues and he is destined for greatness in the future. Like every rider coming from the Giro, it’s a question of recovery but like Scarponi he should be doing well in the first mountain stages. He is still not a big name in cycling and so may get the freedom to attack in the finale.

 

Pierre Latour is another huge climbing talent. He proved his potential last summer when he finished third behind Contador and Quintana at Route du Sud and did very well in Burgos and the Tour de l’Ain. This year he has been up there in Pais Vasco and Romandie but he has missed a bit. As he isn’t going to the Tour, this race is his big summer goal and his excellent prologue indicates that his form is great. Like Dombrowski, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

As said, it will be difficult for a breakaway to make it but some of the strong climbers who lost time in stage 3 have a chance. That group includes Pieter Weening, Peter Stetina and Riccardo Zoidl. They are all very aggressive riders and their main goal is to win a stage. Weening has been on fire all year and nearly won a stage from a breakaway in Catalonia. Most recently, he won the Tour of Norway overall, riding away from his rivals on the hardest climb. Stetina is back at his best level after his horror crash in Pais Vasco last year and rode to an impressive second place in the queen stage in California. He was frustrated to lose time yesterday and will now try to make amends. Finally, Zoidl was really strong in the final week of the Giro and if he has maintained that level, he will be a great breakaway candidate here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Geraint Thomas

Other winner candidates: Tejay van Garderen, Michele Scarponi

Outsiders: Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, Miguel Angel Lopez, Simon Spilak

Jokers: Ion Izagirre, Andrew Talansky, Mathias Frank, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Latour, Pieter Weening (breakaway), Peter Stetina (breakaway), Riccardo Zoidl (breakaway)