The first mountain stage proved that the battle for the overall win in the Tour de Suisse will be just as close as many had predicted as the main contenders seemed to be at almost the same level. However, the toughest course in recent history should gradually take its toll and separate the best from the rest, with tomorrow’s brutally steep final climb set to give a firmer indication of who’s going to win the race.

 

The course

In the past, the Tour de Suisse has only had one or two summit finishes but the brutally tough 2016 course leaves no room for recovery for the GC riders. After the first test in the mountains, there’s another tough summit finish in store on the sixth day and it is even harder than the one in the previous stage. The climb to Amden-Arvenbühl may only be a category 1 climb but with gradients of more than 10% for most of the time, it will create huge time differences.

 

The 162.8km stage has no less than 3045m of climbing and will bring the riders from Weesen to the top of the Amden climb. In fact, the starting city is located at the bottom of the ascent so the first part of the stage consists of a big 153.3km circuit on its western outskirts. It is mainly flat, with just a single uncategorized climb to get the legs going in the early part. However, it includes a very difficult challenge in the second half where the riders will go up the HC climb of Klausenpass (23.3km, 6.2%) whose summit comes at the 100.2km mark. From there, they will descend to flat roads that lead back to Weesen.

 

Having returned to the starting city, the riders will head to the final climb which starts with 7.8km to go. The 6.9km category 1 mountain averages a massive 10.7% and leaves no room for recovery as the gradient stays above 10% for most of the time. There’s only a short, easier section with around 4km to go and then the climb again becomes steep. The KOM sprint comes with 1200m to go but that doesn’t mean that the climbing hostilities are over as the final part is uphill at an average of 7.9%. The climb follows a winding road, with the final turn coming 500m from the line.

 

The final climb has not been used for a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

The weather

The weather turned out not to be too had on stage 5 but the riders still had their fair share of rain. There will be more on the menu for Thursday which is forecasted to be very wet. It may be dry at the start but in the afternoon, the chance of rain will be 80-90%. The maximum temperature in Amden will be 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind, then a crosswind and then a tailwind on the Klaussenpass. A crosswind will lead to the final climb where there will be a tailwind.

 

The favourites

Every year the Criterium du Dauphiné gets most of the attention in the build-up to the Tour de France. The excellent start field always attracts the interest of the fans and media but in fact it is always the Tour de Suisse that is the most exciting race. While the Dauphiné always ends up as a predictable Chris Froome show, the Swiss race has become a rare chance for the riders from the second line to go for the victory in a major WorldTour race without having to deal with any of the Fabulous Four, Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali, and the dominant one-week racer, Porte. Those five riders often share the WorldTour stage races in the first half of the year between them – with a few exceptions of course – but the Tour de Suisse stands out as the most open multi-day race in the opening half of the finest calendar.

 

This year it is definitely no difference. Geraint Thomas, Tejay van Garderen and Rui Costa were just as equally matched as many had predicted. Van Garderen was very aggressive while Thomas rode consistently. The Brit maybe paid a bit for the fact that it was stop-go racing as he would have preffered an extra Sky teammate to maintain a fast pace in the finale too. Costa was his usual strong self even though it was a surprise to see him lose time in the sprint where he should usually have been one of the strongest.

 

Among the four biggest pre-race favourites, only defending champion Simon Spilak showed any kind of weakness. It is too early to write off the consistent Slovenian as this race will be all about recovery on a brutal course but it is still hard to see how the Katusha leader will turn things around. After all, the race comes on the back of an illness-marred spring where he never found his best form. As opposed to this, Warren Barguil confirmed what he has shown all spring: that he has taken another step up.

 

At the same time, Wilco Kelderman firmly moved himself from an outsider status to potential winner. The Dutchman has been unable to find his best climbing legs since the 2014 Dauphiné but now he seems to be back on track. Given his TT skills, he will be a danger man if he can confirm his good legs during the next two days, especially on the Rettenbachferner which could be a bit too long and grueling for the Dutchman.

 

While the Astana pair of Michele Scarponi and Miguel Angel Lopez were both slightly disappointing, Pierre Latour was the big surprise. We remember him showing his potential as a stagiaire for Ag2r already in 2013 and he fully confirmed his huge talent during a marvelous debut season in 2015 where he rode very strongly at Route du Sud, Tour de l’Ain and the Vuelta a Burgos. Still it’s a surprise to see him finish second of the GC contenders in the first mountain stage as it’s a massive improvement compared to what he showed in the spring. It will be hard to back it up over the next few days and with so many strong time triallists among the GC contenders, an overall win is unlikely. Still it looks promising for what will be an exciting Vuelta debut later this year.

 

After the opening battle, the scene is set for another big fight on stage 6. It’s a bit deceptive that the final climb in stage 5 was of the HC category while the climb to Amden is only of the first category. Of course the climb is shorter but it has some brutal gradients that will make it a very challenging affair suited to real climbers. The fear of the Rettenbachferner in stage 7 may prompt the riders to be a bit conservative but on such a steep climb, there will be no hiding and time gaps will definitely be created.

 

Today the breakaway made it to the finish and tomorrow could be another good day for a breakaway. With the Rettenbachferner coming up, many teams want to conserve some energy and there is no obvious favourite for the stage win among the GC contenders. Most of them still have their eyes more on the overall standings than the stage results so it is not obvious who’s going to chase the break down.

 

Bigger time gaps have now opened up and several good climbers have lost a chunk of time. This means that there will be more room to attack for riders who can actually finish it off in this kind of stage. Unfortunately, it’s a flat start so it’s a bit of a lottery to hit the break but if they can get to the small uncategorized climb after 30km of racing, some of the good climbers can make a difference here. In any case, we should have another very fast and aggressive start and it will probably take a long time for the break to be formed. Like today it could be another big group and it will be hard for the Ag2r team which is not very strong, to keep things under control.

 

When the break has gone clear, Ag2r will ride on the front and if no one is dangerous for the GC, they will be pleased to let the group stay away. BMC already have their stage win so they won’t start the chase. Giant-Alpecin are probably the best candidate to initiate a chase as the final climb suits Barguil really well. With the likes of Simon Geschke, Laurens Ten Dam and Sam Oomen they have a good group of climbers to ride fast on the Klausenpass. Sky may also want to ride tempo on that climb to make things harder for Thomas’ rivals and if they do so, the break could be brought back. Finally, Astana are still hopeful that they will win a stage so they could come to the fore too.

 

Overall the interests are not obvious though so we will put our money on a breakaway but much will depend on whether there are any dangerous riders in the break. That should give Joe Dombrowski another shot at victory. The Cannondale rider came up short in today’s stage after he had initially joined the breakaway. However, he seemed to be one of the best on the Gotthardpass and he only lost contact on the descent. He then eased up and lost more than 13 minutes and so will have lots of freedom.

 

Dombrowski arrived with half an eye on the GC but the main goal was always going to be a stage win. He will definitely try again tomorrow. He doesn’t seem too fatigued after the Giro and his diesel engine has a great ability to recover. The longer stage should suit him well and the very steep climb in the finale is good for him. If he can again make it into the break, Dombrowski should be one of the favourites.

 

It was a bit frustrating for Victor De La Parte to lose time in the rain on stage 3 as his great ride today proved that his form is good. He crushed the opposition at last year’s Tour of Austria where he was the big revelation and this race is probably the biggest goal for him this year. His time loss may now be a blessing in disguise as it should give him more freedom to attack. He has proved that he has the ability to recover from repeated strains so if he can make it into the break tomorrow, he will be hard to beat on the final climb.

 

Like De La Parte, Peter Stetina lost some time in stage 2 and so he will have more freedom to attack. The American is still trying to return to his best after his horror crash at last year’s Vuelta al Pais Vasco but his second place in the Tour of California queen stage proves that he is already at a high level. Trek no longer have any GC goals in this race so they will do their utmost not to miss the break. Stetina is their best card and his 24th place in today’s stage proves that his form is still good. The steep slopes of the final climb should suit a pure climber like him perfectly.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, we will put our money on Tejay van Garderen. The American was probably the strongest in today’s stage but the climb was not hard enough for him to make a difference. Tomorrow’s climb is steeper so it should be easier for him to get clear even though he doesn’t prefer such a steep climb. However, none of the favourites really do and as he is probably the best climber here and always recovers well, he could very well make it two in a row for BMC.

 

Today Warren Barguil was the best of the favourites but he was not the strongest. He benefited from the tactical battle to make a strong attack and his poor TT skills probably gave him the necessary freedom. Among the pre-race favourites, he is probably the one most comfortable on very steep climbs though and so he has a solid chance in tomorrow’s stage. He should usually get better and better throughout the race so he could turn out to be van Garderen’s biggest rival.

 

Geraint Thomas rode well in today’s stage but tomorrow will be his best test. In the past, the Brit has had trouble with the consistency in week-long stage races so now is the time to prove that he has improved. The steeper climb doesn’t suit him ideally but on the other hand he was clearly one of the strongest in today’s stage. On such a steep climb, it will be more about the legs than race tactics and this should favour Thomas.

 

Miguel Angel Lopez was not at his best in today’s stage. However, we can expect him to be stronger tomorrow. Historically, he has suffered a bit on the longer climbs while he has been more comfortable on shorter, steeper ascents. His attack in today’s stage was pretty strong but he probably paid the price for the length of the climb. If he can make a similar attack tomorrow, he will have a much better chance.

 

The climb also suits Wilco Kelderman pretty well. The Dutchman actually has a decent kick on very steep climbs and history shows that he is at his best when the climbs are not too long. Hence, the final climb is tailor-made for him and as said, he seems to be climbing better than he has done for two years. He will be eager to get into yellow and has a solid chance to achieve that goal.

 

Of course Pierre Latour is also a contender. It remains to be seen how he handles the pressure of being a leader and whether he can back up today’s performance. However, his excellent prologue already proved that he is in the form of his life and his kick in the finale of today’s stage was simply impressive.

 

Today Michael Albasini was one of the first to get dropped but that was definitely not an indication of bad legs. The Swiss deliberately saved energy to be ready for a big attack and he will definitely give it a go tomorrow. He is not a climber but he has won mountain stages in this race in the past. The flat start gives him an advantage compared to many of the pure climbers and the relatively short, very steep final climb suits him very well.

 

Giant-Alpecin may try to control the stage and set up Barguil for the win but they could also go for the breakaway with Sam Oomen and Simon Geschke. Both are in great form and have been riding very well in this race. Oomen is one of the greatest climbing talents on the WorldTour and will be keen to confirm what he showed at the Criterium International where he finished third overall. Geschke is not a pure climber but he has proved that he can win this kind of stage and the fact that the final climb is not too long should make him a contender.

 

Tiesj Benoot is one of the most talented riders in the peloton and can do almost everything. The Belgian did some impressive performances in the mountains at last year’s Dauphiné and even though he is a classics rider, he climbs really well. He will benefit from the flat start and the fact that the final climb is relatively short. Furthermore, he loves the bad weather so he will be a contender if he can join the right break.

 

Kenny Elissonde is a pure climber who has won from a breakaway on the famous Angliru. He should find the final climb to his liking and he seems to be in good form after an injury-marred start to the year. The flat start will make it difficult to join the break but he has proved that he is actually pretty good at picking the right moment to attack.

 

Today Pieter Weening showed that he still has the good form that allowed him to win the Tour of Norway. He only got dropped from the break on the descent and then decided to sit up. He nearly finished off a long ride in the mountains in Catalonia so if he joins the right break, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Like Weening, Winner Anacona was in the break in today’s stage. The Colombian was strong but paid the price for his many attacks. He is usually getting better and better throughout a stage race and as the Izagirre brothers lost time in today’s stage, he should have the freedom to give it another go. The final climb suits him very well.

 

Finally, we will point to Pawel Cieslik. The Czech has really proved his potential on numerous occasions in 2016. Like De La Parte and Stetina, he was one of the losers in stage 3 but today he really proved his good climbing legs. It would be a massive achievement for Verva to win a stage and if they can get Cieslik into the right break, they definitely have a realistic shot.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Joe Dombrowski (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Victor De La Parte, Peter Stetina (both from a breakaway)

Outsiders: Tejay van Garderen, Warren Barguil, Geraint Thomas, Miguel Angel Lopez, Wilco Kelderman, Pierre Latour

Jokers: Michael Albasini, Sam Oomen, Simon Geschke, Tiesj Benoot, Kenny Elissonde, Pieter Weening, Winner Anacona, Pawel Cieslik (all from a breakaway)