Andrew Talansky again proved that he is a master in gauging his effort and with Wilco Kelderman dropping out of contention, the American now stands out as the overwhelming favourite to win the Tour de Suisse overall. He needs to gain 24 seconds on Warren Barguil and he has a big chance to do so in the next key test of the race, the 16.8km time trial in Davos.

 

The course

The Tour de Suisse always includes a long time trial of 30-40km and as the climbs in Switzerland are not very steep, it has always played a huge role in determining the overall winner. Mostly it has been held in rolling terrain in the flatter part of the country but in certain editions, the race has been decided in a mountain time trial – most recently in 2013. Most often it has been held on the final day, giving the time triallists the upper hand over the climbers.

 

However, things have been shaken up completely for the 2016 edition. While the lumpy nature of the time trial is the same as usual, everything else has changed. Most notably, the TT is much shorter than usual as it only covers 16.8km around the city of Davos. Furthermore, it has been moved to the penultimate stage and as there’s a mountain stage on the final day, it gives the climbers a chance to strike back if they have lost time in the stage that has traditionally done them the most damage.

 

The 16.8km stage both starts and finishes in Davos and has a total amount of climbing of 262m. It mostly consists of an out-and-back run on the southwestern outskirts of the city but there’s a small digression along the way which allows the riders to tackle a small climb. The first part of the stage is mainly flat and without any technical challenges as the riders travel in a southwesterly direction until they get to the turning point. Then they will travel back towards Davos along an equally flat road before they briefly leave the river to head up a small climb which averages 5% over 3km. The top is located with 4.4km to go where the time check will be taken and then the riders will turn around to head down the descent back to the river. From there, it’s a flat run for the final 2.5km. There aren’t any major technical challenges in the finale, with just two turns coming just before the flamme rouge.

 

Davos last hosted a stage of the Tour de Suisse in 2009 when Bernhard Eisel won a reduced bunch sprint after a hilly ride. In recent years, the long Tour de Suisse time trials have been won by Tom Dumoulin (2015), Tony Martin (2014, 2010), Rui Costa (2013), Fredrik Kessiakoff (2012) and Fabian Cancellara (2011, 2009).

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had great luck to enjoy sunny conditions for most of the stage but unfortunately it seems that the rain can have a massive impact on the outcome of the time trial. After a sunny morning, there’s a 80% chance of rain throughout the afternoon and it will even increase slightly towards the end. The maximum temperature will be 13 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction and it will even get a bit stronger as the day goes on. The riders will mainly have a crosswind but it will be a tailwind on the climb and a headwind on the descent.

 

The favourites

Tejay van Garderen was right. The reason for his poor performance in stage 6 was definitely due to the bad weather. In stage 5, he had looked like the strongest rider and today he was again clearly the best. Of course he got a bit of freedom due to his time loss but there was no way that anyone could have followed him. Warren Barguil never got any closer and despite riding into a headwind for a big part of the final 4.5km, he still held everybody off.

 

The performance comes as a confirmation of his improved climbing skills which he really put on show at last year’s Criterium du Dauphiné. The importance of the win cannot be underestimated as it proved to the BMC management that he is ready to share the leadership with Richie Porte. The Australian still stands out as the only realistic podium candidate but with both Porte and van Garderen in great form, the American team will have tactical options.

 

Van Garderen is left wondering what might have been as it is too late for him to win the Tour de Suisse overall. However, it could very well be an American victory as Andrew Talansky now stands out as the big favourite. The Cannondale leader did what he does best as he gauged his effort perfectly. Like he did two days ago he suffered on the lower slopes but he avoided getting into the red zone and by the time we came to the pointy end of the race he was absolutely flying.

 

The result elevated him to third but as neither Warren Barguil and Miguel Angel Lopez are good time triallists, it will be a surprise if Talansky doesn’t move into the race lead tomorrow. He will easy pass the Colombian in the overall standings but the 24-second gap to Barguil could be more of a problem. However, Barguil still hasn’t shown much improvement in his time trialling and unless he can really turn things around on Saturday, there is little chance that he will be able to limit his losses enough to defend his lead. However, the race won’t be over for the Frenchman even if he fails as he will have a chance to take the jersey in the final mountain stage.

 

Today’s stage also proved that Wilco Kelderman still suffers on the long, hard climbs. That happened in the 2014 Giro and it happened again today. The Dutchman had been flying until now but if he wants to develop into a serious contender for WorldTour stage races, he needs to improve his abilities on the longest climbs. However, he has shown great form in this race and he will be eager to bounce back in the time trial just like Geraint Thomas who had another disappointing ride and looks far from being a realistic plan B for Team Sky at the Tour de France.

 

The final mountain stage offers a chance to change things but it’s more of a stage where you can lose the race than actually win it. Hence, tomorrow’s time trial is likely to determine the outcome of the race. When it comes to the profile, it’s a pretty typical Tour de Suisse time trial but the length is much shorter than usual. The climb will allow the climbers to limit their losses but the rest of the TT is made up of long, straight, flat roads where the powerful specialists can make a difference.

 

The weather could play a big role. Today it stayed dry for most of the time but tomorrow the risk of rain is bigger. Furthermore, it increases towards the end of the stage where the wind is also likely to pick up. It probably won’t affect the GC battle as the contenders are likely to have similar conditions but it could very well have an impact on the outcome of the stage. The course is not very technical but of course riders will have an advantage if they have dry roads while others have to ride in wet conditions. However, it is impossible to say when or if it will rain so it makes the time trial a bit of a lottery.

 

The weather is one of the reasons that we will make Fabian Cancellara our favourite to win the stage. The Swiss is clearly not at 100% as he has been dropped pretty early on the climbs and there is lots of room for improvement for the Tour de France. However, his win in the prologue again proved what we already knew: that Cancellara always does a good time trial, even when he is not in good form.

 

With the weather set to get worse late in the afternoon, Cancellara could very well benefit from his early start. Furthermore, most of his biggest rivals have gone all out in the last few days while he has been able to save himself for tomorrow. His motivation can’t be underestimated as he would love to get one final stage win in his home and his reaction after his prologue win underlined how much this race means to him.

 

The course is not tailor-made for Cancellara as there is a pretty hard climb but it’s the kind of ascent that he can handle as it’s not very steep. In fact he has done very good time trials on hilly courses in the past. In the first, flat section, he should be the strongest and compared to some of the GC riders, he benefits from the shorter distance. If it had been the usual 30-40km, it would have been hard for him to win but on such a short course, he is our favourite to win.

 

Today Tejay van Garderen bounced back and again proved that his form is great. He may no longer be in contention for the win but he is still fueled by the desire to prove his status in the BMC team. Unfortunately, it seemed like his TT skills had waned as he got skinnier and improved his climbing but at the Ruta del Sol earlier this year, he looked like his former self when he narrowly beat Wilco Kelderman.

 

However, there is no doubt that van Garderen no longer has the power on the flats that he once had. If it had been a flat TT, he would probably have had a hard time but the inclusion of a climb turns things around. He will definitely be one of the strongest in that part of the course and a lot of time can be made here. There is a pretty big chance that van Garderen will make it two in a row.

 

This race has proved that Andrew Talansky is back to his best. When he was last on fire, he was a formidable time triallist. In fact he finished in the top 10 in almost every WorldTour TT he did during his neo-pro season. In recent years, he has barely done a single good TT though but that has been more a result of a general lack of form than declining abilities. In fact, he proved his class recently when he was second behind Rohan Dennis and beat a big, powerful guy like Rohan Dennis on a flat course in California.

 

Talansky has extra motivation as he is riding for the overall win and he should find the mixed course to his liking. He is one of the best on the flats and is very strong on the climb. He may have preferred a longer distance but he has done well in these tests in the past. He could very well take it all in this stage.

 

Yesterday we were considering making Wilco Kelderman our favourite for this stage but now we will only give him an outsider status. The Dutchman suffered a lot in today’s stage and it is always hard to bounce back after such a difficult day. Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether he is at his usual time trial level. On paper, he is probably better than van Garderen and Talansky as he has been absolutely flying in the TTs during the last 12 months. Just recall that he beat Dumoulin at the national championships and was second behind van Emden at the Eneco Tour TT. However, when he last improved his climbing in 2014, it cost a lot in the TTs and in this race he has been climbing better than ever. He has to prove that it has not had a major impact on his TT skills. Furthermore, he often gets worse throughout a stage race. However, his current form could bring him far in this stage.

 

One of the big question marks is world champion Vasil Kiryienka. The Belarusian was scary in today’s stage as he was simply brutally strong. He is clearly in the form of his life but it remains to be seen whether he has his usual power on the flats. Furthermore, Kiryienka has never really excelled in short time trials as he specializes over longer distances so even though his form is outstanding, this stage could be a bit too short for him.

 

Ion Izagirre got the race off to a poor start but now he is getting better. The Basque is now a solid podium candidate and he should be able to gain enough time of Miguel Angel Lopez to move into third. He is one of the best time triallists in the world on hilly, technical courses and rarely misses out on the top 10. However, this course may be a bit too flat and too much about power for him to really prove his class. He will have an advantage if everybody has rainy conditions but we doubt that he will win the stage.

 

Simon Spilak is in a similar position. The Slovenian is one of the best in the world when it comes to hilly time trials but this course is not tailor-made for him. When it’s too much about power, he usually comes up short and so he would have preferred a standard Tour de Suisse time trial. Furthermore, he is not at his best level. On the other hand, he is clearly getting better and you can never rule him out in this race.

 

The stage is a chance for Geraint Thomas to bounce back but we don’t have too much confidence in him. He is a solid time triallist, especially over this distance, and among the GC contenders, he probably has the most power of the flats. However, he is skinner than ever before and this could have cost him a bit. Furthermore, he has been pretty inconsistent in his time trialling and he always seems to lose a bit of form at the end of a stage race. Finally, his morale cannot be at its best after two days of disappointment.

 

Rui Costa has done great time trials in this race in the past but he is no specialist and he needs a harder course to really shine. His form is clearly very good as he has been climbing well on climbs that are usually too steep for him but it may not be enough for this kind of course. On the other hand, he has done very good TTs this year so another good performance can definitely not be ruled out.

 

Is Luke Durbridge again a time trial specialist? A few years ago he was one of the biggest talents but during the last twp years he has barely done a single good TT. Hence, it came as a bit of a surprise that he was flying in the prologue. This has given him lots of confidence for this TT but he still needs to prove that he can return to his former level over the longer distances too. Furthermore, the climb doesn’t favour him in the battle against the GC riders.

 

On paper, it is a great course for Jonathan Castroviejo. However, the Spanish specialist is making his comeback after a bad crash in Algarve so he is not at his best. He has been better than expected though so we won’t rule out that he can deliver a solid performance even though his form is not good enough to win.

 

Silvan Dillier has really improved his time trialling a lot. He did a very good prologue both here and at the Giro and his form seems to be great. He has been on fire in the early stages and would love to end his time in the Swiss’ champion’s jersey with a good ride on a course that should suit him well.

 

The IAM trio of Martin Elmiger, Reto Hollenstein and Matthias Brändle should all do well. Elmiger always does good TTs in this race while Hollenstein and Brändle are real specialists. They are more of prologue riders but can also do well over this distance. The climb will be a problem for Brändle who went very deep today but it should suit Hollenstein.

 

Yves Lampaert has really stepped up his time trialling. He did excellent prologues both here and in Belgian but he still needs to prove that he can also do better in longer time trials. This is a big chance for him to do so and he clearly has the form to do well.

 

Usually Maciej Bodnar would have been one of the favourites. However, the Pole has just returned from injury so his form is unlikely to be good  enough to go for the win. His prologue was pretty bad. On the other hand, he has had seven days to build his form and he could do much better here. The long, flat sections suit him well and if he has the legs when he finished second in the Vuelta TT or win in De Panne, he should be able to do well.

 

Finally, we will point to the Orica-GreenEDGE pair of Michael Matthews and Christopher Juul. Juul is in the form of his life and has been riding very well in this race. However, he would probably have preferred a longer distance. It’s the opposite for Matthews who is a pretty good time triallist on short courses. This one may be a bit too much about power but we won’t be disappointed if he puts in a good ride. Today he was in the top 50 on the Rettenbachferner which clearly shows that he is working on his form. Tomorrow’s stage could be another good test for him.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Other winner candidates: Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky

Outsiders: Wilco Kelderman, Vasil Kiryienka, Ion Izagirre, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Rui Costa, Luke Durbridge, Jonathan Castroviejo, Silvan Dillier, Reto Hollenstein, Martin Elmiger, Matthias Brändle, Yves Lampaert, Maciej Bodnar, Michael Matthews, Christopher Juul