The riders had a chance to blow out the cobwebs in the People’s Choice Classic but for most of the riders, the fast criterium in Adelaide was merely a warm-up. On Tuesday, things get serious when the first stage of the Tour Down Under offers the first WorldTour points and with a relatively flat course, it should provide the fast finishers a chance to build on the momentum they created in Adelaide by claiming the first ochre leader’s jersey of the 2016 edition of the race.

 

The course

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters (usually won by Andre Greipel) but in 2014 the organizers changed the script as they opened their event with a very tough stage that included the steep Mengler’s Hill just 11.7km from the finish, meaning that most of the fast finishers were left behind before the sprint.

 

Last year the first stage was again expected to suit the fast finishers who were upset by a surprisingly strong breakaway and a win for Jack Bobridge. They will try to avoid a repeat of that scenario when they kick off the 2016 edition. The opening stage will feature a new finish in Lyndoch but if the sprint teams can work together, there is a big chance that the first holder of the ochre leader’s jersey will be decided in a bunch sprint.

 

The short 130.8km stage goes from Prospect to Lyndoch and is a mostly flat affair, with only a few rolling climbs along the way. As the race kicks off from an Adelaide suburb, it has a pretty tough start as the riders climb out of the coastal city. The first 12.8km are all uphill and leads to the top of the category 2 Lower Hermitage climb. As this is the only categorized climb in the stage, there will be a mountains jersey on offer right from the start.

 

That signals the end of the climbing challenges and the riders will mainly face flat roads as they travel west and north to the city of Williamstown which they will reach after 40km of racing. Slightly descending roads will lead to Lyndoch where they will cross the finish line at the 50.1km mark.

 

The final part of the race consists of three laps of a 26.9km circuit in the area south of the finishing city. The first half is slightly ascending and the second half slightly descending but it is a mainly flat affair. The riders will contest intermediate sprints at the same point in the first two laps at the 59.6km and 86.4km marks respectively. The finale is completely non-technical as the finish line is located on a long, straight, flat road, with the final turn coming more than 5km from the finish.

 

Lyndoch has never hosted a stage finish before.

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour Down Under is known as one of the hottest races of the year and on a few occasions, bushfires have even put certain stages under threat. That’s not the case in 2016 but the riders will still be looking for shelter in what will be a brutally hot opening stage – which luckily is set to be the warmest of the race. There will be bright sunshine for the entire stage and the maximum temperature will be a massive 37 degrees.

 

It will be relatively windy, with a moderate breeze coming from a northwesterly direction. This means that it will be a crosswind in the first part of the stage before the riders turn into a cross-headwind as they approach the circuit. Here there will be a short crosswind section just after the finish line but it will mainly be a tailwind in the first part and a cross-headwind on the long road leading to the finish in Lyndoch.

 

The favourites

The People’s Choice Classic is always a strange event. For most of the field, it is all about staying safe and avoiding any unnecessary risks and only half of the field is really interested in the race, either by riding for their sprinter, attacking or mixing it up in the bunch sprint.

 

The opening stage of the Tour Down Under will have the same field and is again suited to the fast riders but it will still be a whole different animal. This time the GC is at stake and this means that the riders have to be attentive. There is little doubt that the opening stage is unlikely to have much of an impact on the outcome of the race but it is important to avoid any unpleasant surprises.

 

The first stage has traditionally been for the fast riders and it won’t be any different in 2016. The course is mostly flat and there are no major climbs. Nonetheless, the windier conditions, the longer distance and the undulations will make it a lot harder than the People’s Choice Classic and it should be better suited to the in-form riders and stronger sprinters while the opening criterium was made for the pure sprinters.

 

The first stage may traditionally have been for the sprinters but we have to go back to 2013 to find the last bunch sprint on the opening stage. In 2014, it was the steep Mengler’s Hill that was too tough for most of the fast guys and last year the sprint teams were unable to catch a very strong breakaway of Jack Bobridge, Lieuwe Westra, Maxim Belkov and Luke Durbridge.

 

They will be extra attentive to avoid a similar failure in 2016 and it is unlikely that the sprinters won’t decide the opening stage. However, they will have to be on their toes. The first part of the stage is all uphill and then the riders head straight into a crosswind section. In this kind of WorldTour race, such a sprint stage would usually be very controlled but it is always different in the Tour Down Under. Hence, it was no coincidence that last year’s break was very strong and there could again be some real firepower in the early break, especially after such a tough start.

 

The mountains jersey will be an extra incentive for riders to attack and we should have a fast start to the race. It will take time for the break to be formed and we probably have to wait until after the KOM sprint before the elastic snaps.

 

There will be a crosswind in the first part which could offer a chance to split things but it is probably too early. On the finishing circuit, there will mainly be a cross-headwind or a tailwind and the very short crosswind section won’t be enough to split the field. Hence, it will be decided in a bunch sprint unless the break stays away. That is unlikely to happen though.

 

It will be interesting to see which teams take responsibility for the chase. Everybody will be looking at Orica-GreenEDGE and with both stage win and GC ambitions, they have a double incentive to ride on the front with the likes of Michael Albasini, Michael Hepburn and Luke Durbridge. Trek-Sefafredo could lend a hand after Nizzolo’s solid second place while IAM are unlikely to have given up as they are mainly here for the sprints. Cannondale have done nothing to hide that they want to win the opening stage and could also be riding on the front. Finally, GC teams like BMC and Sky won’t risk anything in the GC and so will come to the fore if the situation gets critical. Hence, there should be plenty of interest in a bunch sprint.

 

Tour Down Under stages have often been crash-marred but luckily the finish in Lyndoch is very straightforward. It will be a long, slightly descending road in the final part of the stage which will make it very fast. There will be a cross-headwind and this means that it will be very important to time things right.

 

As said, the harder race should suit the stronger sprinters better than Sunday’s criterium did and this means that it is hard not to put Caleb Ewan on top of the list of favourites. When it comes to pure speed, Matteo Pelucchi is the only rider that can match the Australian but the sprint in Adelaide clearly proved that the Italian is not at the top of his game. At the same time, Ewan proved that his relatively poor ride at the Australian Championships was not indicative of his form and he claims to be feeling very good at the moment.

 

As we had already predicted in our preview, IAM had by far the strongest lead-out and they completely dominated the finale in Adelaide. Orica-GreenEDGE didn’t have the firepower to match them but Mathew Hayman and Daryl Impey did an excellent job to position Ewan. They will have a similar approach in stage 1 and are definitely strong enough to make sure that their sprinter won’t have to start the sprint from too far back. Furthermore, things will be less hectic as people will be more tired which should favour the in-form Australians.

 

Finally, Ewan has proved that he has both the form and speed to beat his rivals and the headwind will favour him as he has a very aerodynamic sprinting style. Ewan is the in-form sprinter at the moment, is one of the two fastest guys in the race and the natural favourite.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo was his biggest rival in Adelaide. The Italian did very poorly 12 months ago when he had just come back from injury but he has done nothing to hide that he is here to race. Despite taking another second place, he was greatly encouraged by his performance in the opening stage and he will be keen to get a welcome WorldTour win tomorrow.

 

Nizzolo is no pure sprinter and should benefit from the harder racing. Furthermore, he has one of the best lead-out at his disposal and Kiel Reijnen and Boy Van Poppel both did an excellent job in Adelaide. They just forced Nizzolo to start his headwind sprint a bit too early but they proved that they have the firepower to be up there. Finally, Nizzolo is one of the best at positioning himself and this makes him hugely consistent. He will be ready to capitalize if Ewan makes the smallest mistake.

 

We have made Matteo Pelucchi our favourite for the People’s Choice Classic but there was no glory for the Italian. IAM were very impressive in the lead-out but Pelucchi simply died and lost Leigh Howard’s wheel. Unlike last year when he dominated the sprints at the start of the year, he doesn’t seem to have the form to be competitive and it won’t be any easier in the much harder stage 1.

 

That doesn’t mean that you can role Pelucchi out. He is still one of the very fastest sprinters and no one can deny that IAM were very impressive in Adelaide. It seems that their dedicated lead-out work has paid off and they are again likely to dominate the finale. With one race in his legs, Pelucchi could be feeling better and if that’s the case he could win the stage.

 

It was the first test of the Cannondale train in Adelaide and they actually did really well. Simon Clarke, Alberto Bettiol and Ruben Zepuntke managed to get Patrick Bevin and sprinter Wouter Wippert into a great position but the Dutchman got boxed in an nearly crashed when he wanted to launch his sprint. He never got the chance to show his speed and had to settle for ninth.

 

Wippert was disappointed by the result but encouraged by the lead-out. It’s a completely new train so the signs were definitely promising. There is little doubt that Wippert is one of the fastest riders in this race and he is one of the select few with the speed to win this stage. If Cannondale can again put him into a good position, he could win the stage.

 

On paper, Dimension Data have a very powerful sprint team but they completely messed things up in Adelaide. Mark Renshaw, Reinardt van Rensburg and Tyler Farrar never found each other and it was hard to see which rider was actually protected. Farrar took a huge turn on the front in the finale and the result was sixth for van Rensburg and 18th for Renshaw.

 

On paper, Renshaw should be faster than van Rensburg so we expect the team to ride for Renshaw tomorrow. He is not a pure sprinter and needs everything to go right to win such a stage. However, Dimension Data have the firepower to challenge the best and this turns him into a possible winner.

 

Marko Kump got his WorldTour comeback off to a great start as he sprinted to fifth in Adelaide. In fact, he was one of the fastest in the sprint as he had to start his effort from far back. This proves that he has started his season in good condition and he should benefit from a harder race. On paper, Lampre-Merida have some decent lead-out riders in Luka Pibernik, Manuele Mori and Federico Zurlo but they clearly have to up there game if they want to benefit from the Slovenian’s speed.

 

Drapac messed things up in Sunday’s sprint. Graeme Brown hit the front way too early but his sprinter Brenton Jones had already lost his wheel. Hence, the talented Australian came away empty-handed and he will be fired up for stage 1. Brown and Jones have worked well together in the first races in 2016 and Jones has proved that he has speed and form by taking several second places. Brown has the experience to do better and this should set Jones up for a better result

 

As we had expected, Juan Jose Lobato was completely out of position in the sprint in Adelaide and so failed to make it into the top 10. It is unlikely to be any different in Lyndoch and he positions himself very poorly. On the other hand, he is one of the very fastest and has often claimed solid results by coming from far back. It won’t be easy in this kind of headwind sprint and the most likely outcome is that he will again miss the top 10. However, if gets into a decent position, he is one of the select few with the speed to win the first stage.

 

Things didn’t really work out for UniSA in Adelaide. That was no major surprise. In our preview, we had already predicted that Steele von Hoff would probably come up short in the hectic fight for position as he is surrounded by a young team. It will again be a massive disadvantage in Lyndoch but the harder stage will make things less hectic. This could open the door for him to show the speed and good form that he has built during the Australian summer.

 

As said, it will be hard for a breakaway to make it but it is not completely impossible. The tough start means that we could get a very strong group like we did 12 months ago and they may not be easy to catch. Look out for strong rouleurs like Jack Bobridge, Thomas De Gendt, Manuele Boaro, Cyril Gautier and Lars Boom to surprise the sprinters.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Caleb Ewan

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Matteo Pelucchi

Outsiders: Wouter Wippert, Mark Renshaw, Marko Kump

Jokers: Brenton Jones, Juan Jose Lobato, Steele von Hoff

Breakaway candidates: Jack Bobridge, Thomas De Gendt, Manuele Boaro, Cyril Gautier, Lars Boom

 

Betting tips

Brenton Jones to beat Steele Von Hoff - 1.83 at Bet365

The People's Choice Classic ended up being a big disappointment for both Brenton Jones and Steele Von Hoff whose lead-out failed and both finished outside the top 10. It was no great surprise in the case of Von Hoff as he is part of a young UniSA team that has little experience and is not accustomed to working with their printer.

 

As opposed to this, Jones has one of the most experienced lead-out men in Graeme Brown. He has taken over the role as main sprinter at Drapac from Wouter Wippert, and his many second places behind Caleb Ewan in the Australian summer races shows that the shape is good. In those races, Von Hoff who is a very inconsistent sprinter, was not been flying, and it makes Jones the favorite for this race.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Koen De Kort to beat Davide Martinelli - 2.20 at Bet365

It was a surprise that time trial specialist Davide Martinelli sprinted to seventh place in his first race as a professional as he rarely mixes it up in the sprints. However, Etixx-QuickStep has no sprinter in Australia, and it has provided him with freedom to test himself. However, he does not have much experience in the sprints, certainly not at this level. At the same time, there won’t be much support from the team which is not built for these stages.

 

Koen De Kort is certainly no sprinter, but he is one of the best lead-out men in the world. In this race, he has his own chance and he can count on excellent support from experienced Bert De Backer. They actually did quite a good job in Adelaide but De Kort lacked the speed to finish it off. A top 10 spot in the best possible outcome but his experience should make him a favorite in the duel with a "non-sprinter" like Martinelli.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas to beat Anthony Giacoppo - 1.83 at Bet365

Anthony Giacoppo did better than Jose Joaquin Rojas in Adelaide, but it was only a reflection of a failed UniSA lead-out. The Avanti rider's task is to position Steele Von Hoff, not to sprint.

 

Movistar has both Jose Joaquin Rojas and Juan Jose Lobato at the start start, and they could benefit from working together. However, history shows that they usually both do their own sprint and it was the case in Adelaide too. It is unlikely to be different tomorrow, and so Rojas is the favorite in this bet.

 

You can place your bet here.