Caleb Ewan lived up to his status as overwhelming favourite in the first stage of the Tour Down Under while all the overall contenders avoided any unfortunate time loss on a windy day in Adelaide. They now have to prepare themselves for the first small battle in the fight for the overall win as the traditional uphill sprint in Stirling offers a chance to pick up valuable bonus seconds and create the first minor time gaps.

 

The course

The pure sprinters will step out of the spotlight after the opening day as the second stage is a tough Tour Down Under classic. The uphill sprint in Stirling has become a tradition of the Australian race, with the finish featuring in all editions since its debut in 2009. While the stage usually doesn't decide the GC, it is a tricky one where potential winners can target bonus seconds and where you can easily lose a few seconds in the hectic finale.

 

The stage has traditionally started in Unley just south of Adelaide and after a one-year absence, that city was back as the starting point for the tough stage in 2015. It will be back in 2016 too. The distance between the start and finish is very short but to reach the total distance of 132km – which is a bit shorter than last year – the riders will zigzag their way through the area for a little while. Right from the beginning, it is uphill as the riders will climb slightly for almost 8km before they descend to the bottom of the only categorized climb. The short category 2 Carey Gully summits at the 13.8km mark from where the riders descend to the main circuit which they will reach after less than 20km of racing.

 

After tackling the uphill part of the circuit, the riders will cross the finish line at 24.9km mark and then the rest of the stage consists of five laps here. The circuit is 21.4km long and consists of the long uphill drag to the finish and a second, undulating, mostly downhill section. This is where the action will pan out as the rising section to the finish is too tough for a lot of riders – especially if some of the climbing teams decide to up the pace. The finishing straight is non-technical with only a few sweeping bends inside the final kilometre. There will be intermediate sprints in the first two laps after 27.9 and 49.3km of racing respectively.

 

In the past, the stage has been made tougher by adding more and more laps around the circuit, culminating in 2013 when the riders did 5 full laps. However, the riders only did two laps in 2014 and 2015 which made the stage a lot easier. This year the peloton again faces five full laps, meaning that it should favour the puncheurs over the sprinters who have occasionally had a chance on this course.

 

In 2009 Allan Davis beat Graeme Brown in the uphill sprint while Manuel Cardoso held off Alejandro Valverde and Cadel Evans with a long sprint in 2010. In 2011, Michael Matthews proved that he is perfectly suited to this finish when he triumphed ahead of Andre Greipel and Matthews Goss and one year later he again won the sprint - albeit only for second as William Clarke held off the field in a long solo move. In 2013 Tom-Jelte Slagter laid the foundations for his overall win by holding off Goss and Philippe Gilbert while Diego Ulissi timed his move to perfection to win the 2014 stage ahead of Simon Gerrans and Cadel Evans. Last year it was Juan Jose Lobato who came away with the win by beating Daryl Impey and teammate Gorka Izagirre into the minor podium positions.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The big talking point after the first stage was the massive heat that has so often plagued the Australian race and is again a factor in 2016. There will be no respite for stage 2 as Wednesday will again be very hot, with a maximum temperature in Adelaide of 31 degrees. There will be a few clouds in the morning but by the time we get to the finish it will be bright sunshine.

 

It will be less windy than today as there will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part until they get to the circuit. Here they will first have a crosswind and then a cross-tailwind before they turn into a cross-headwind for the final, uphill part.

 

The favourites

It’s never easy to be the overwhelming favourite, especially if you are a young rider in your second year as a professional and riding on home soil, but Caleb Ewan proved that he can easily handle the pressure. Orica-GreenEDGE did not ask for anyone to help them in the chase of the early breakaway and in the end Daryl Impey did an outstanding job to keep Ewan out of the wind before the youngster unleashed his powerful sprint, proving that he is by far the fastest rider at the moment.

 

For the GC riders, it was a day of survival. The conditions were pretty windy and there was plenty of nervousness at certain points but as forecasted, it was mainly a tailwind and a headwind on the finishing circuit, meaning that there were never any real dangers. Hence, all the overall contenders finished in the bunch and made sure that all is still to play in the battle for the overall win.

 

The key stages in the race are certainly stages 3 and 5 and this is where the race will be decided. However, history shows that you can never underestimate the Stirling stage. The final circuit is a tough one and while the heavier guys will lose plenty of time, splits can also appear near the front of the race. A few seconds gained in this stage can be decisive in a race that is usually determined by very small margins and especially the bonus seconds can be crucial.

 

The final circuit is well-known and most of the riders know what to expect as they have raced here before. However, it is very important to notice that the riders will do five laps of the circuit for the first time since 2013. In 2014 and 2015, they only did two laps and this means that the stage will be significantly harder than it has been in the last few years. As it will again be very hot, it will make the stage a lot harder and could tip the balance more towards the GC riders than the strong sprinters who have often done well in this stage.

 

Today the start of the stage wasn’t very animated as the early three-rider break was allowed to escape straight from the gun. Tomorrow we again have a climb right from the start and there are definitely teams here that want a tough race. This could set the scene for a more aggressive start, especially as there could again be a mountains jersey up for grabs. Sean Lake will be keen to add to his lead so there is little doubt that he will be active in the early part of the race.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE will put Michael Hepburn on the front as soon as the break has been established and they are unlikely to allow the gap to get very big. This is a very important stage for Simon Gerrans who is much faster than many of his GC rivals and this could be a day for him to gain some valuable bonus seconds. Hence, the Australian team wants to make sure that it all comes down to an uphill sprint. Lampre-Merida and Movistar both have past winners of this stage too and they will surely lend a hand if needed.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens when we get to the circuit. It won’t be as windy as it was in stage 1 but there will be a long crosswind section. This should create some nervousness but the wind is unlikely to split the field. What will make the difference is the climbing and history shows that certain teams often try to make things hard. With more than 1000m of climbing in the short stage, some of the strong teams can definitely put some rivals under pressure. This will probably spell the end for the early breakaway.

 

History shows that we have often had late breaks on the circuit as teams try to put their rivals under pressure by sending riders up the road. That is likely to happen again and should contribute to the toughness. In the end, however, there will be too much interest in a sprint finish to take a surprise win by attacking and the fight for position as the riders speed towards the final climb will make it impossible for anyone to stay clear.

 

Hence, the race is set to be decided in an uphill sprint as it has been every year bar one. As it has been used several times, it is well-known which riders can handle this finale. Strong sprinters like Michael Matthews, Manuel Cardoso and Juan Jose Lobato have won here but it has also been the scene of good performances from Ardennes specialists and GC riders like Diego Ulissi, Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Simon Gerrans. This makes it a very exciting finale that is a target for several different types of riders.

 

The number of laps of the circuits suggests that the GC riders will have the upper hand in 2016. On the other hand, there will be a headwind on the climb and this should make it easier for the faster guys to keep up with the better climbers. However, we expect the amount of climbing to be more important and we expect a harder stage than we had last year. When the riders last did five laps of the circuit in 2013, it was completely dominated by GC riders, with Slagter claiming the win.

 

Last year Lobato won the stage but with a tougher course, we will put our money on 2014 victor Diego Ulissi. The Italian was in a class of his own in 2014 and is tailor-made for this kind of finish. He has done nothing to hide that the Tour Down Under is a big goal for him and there is little doubt that he has come into the race in very good condition.

 

Ulissi has definitely not been at his best since he returned from suspension but towards the end of 2015 he showed signs of improvement. Furthermore, he still managed to win Fiuggi stage in the Giro d’Italia and that finish was very similar to the one in Stirling. Back then, he beat Gerrans and Lobato who are likely to be his two biggest rivals in tomorrow’s stage. Furthermore, it is worth remembering how strong he was in these finales in the 2014 Giro and if he is getting closer to that level, he will be unstoppable.

 

The big challenge for Ulissi will be the positioning. He has never been very strong in the fight for the best spots and that can be costly in this kind of finale. However, the number of laps will make the field smaller and make that less of a disadvantage. Furthermore, he can rely on Louis Meintjes, Tsgabu Grmay and most notably Manuele Mori to lead him out which should make things easier. This makes Ulissi our favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival is probably last year’s winner Juan Jose Lobato. The Spaniard is probably the best uphill sprinter in the world – just remember how he made John Degenkolb look like a junior in similar finales at last year’s Vuelta a Andalucia. Last year he was clearly the strongest in this stage and he was second behind Ulissi in the Fiuggi stage of last year’s Giro. Furthermore, he has won in a much harder finale in the Vuelta a Burgos.

 

However, Lobato faces two big challenges. First of all the amount of climbing will make the stage harder than it was 12 months ago and he is definitely not climbing as well as the GC riders. Furthermore, he is usually pretty inconsistent and you never know what kind of Lobato you’ll get. However, the biggest disadvantage is his poor positioning which has cost him so many wins in the past. He needs some luck to find a gap and often has to start his sprint from very far back. That won’t be easy, especially not in this headwind. If the is still there and not boxed in, he will be the man to beat though.

 

Simon Gerrans is tailor-made for this finish but surprisingly he has never won here before. This year he hopes to fill that gap in his palmares and with bonus seconds on the line, it is an important stage for him. The team has Caleb Ewan in the leader’s jersey and it won’t be impossible for the youngster to be a contender in this finale. However, he wasn’t climbing very well at Nationals and with the GC ambitions taking precedence, it will be all for Gerrans.

 

Gerrans was third behind Ulissi and Lobato in the Fiuggi stage of the Giro when he was not in his best condition and he should be much stronger here. However, he still needs to prove that he can return to his former level after his disastrous 2015 season and he definitely didn’t seem to be too strong at Nationals. On the other hand, his lead-out man Daryl Impey seems to be in great condition and if they can really nail it in the final, Gerrans could finally win this stage.

 

We have done nothing to hide that we have big expectations for Sergio Henao in the overall standings and this is his first chance to prove himself. He is definitely not as fast as the likes of Ulissi, Gerrans and Lobato and usually needs a harder finish to really shine. However, he has done well in uphill finishes in the past and would love to pick up a few bonus seconds. The harder stage should suit him well and he can rely on support of Geraint Thomas and Peter Kennaugh in the finale. That’s a very strong train which could set Henao for an early confidence boost.

 

Cannondale got close to the win with Wouter Wippert in today’s stage and now it is time for them to highlight another new signing. Patrick Bevin proved at the New Zealand Nationals that his form is excellent at the moment and this is the kind of finish that really suits him. He won the queen stage of last year’s Herald Sun Tour and is both a strong climber and a very fast sprinter. He has done the lead-out in the last few stages but is likely to get the support in tomorrow’s stage. He has proved that he can beat the WorldTour riders and he will be keen to show it again tomorrow.

 

Team LottoNL-Jumbo have flown a bit under the radar and have failed to attract much attention. However, they are here with a new signing that is tailor-made for this stage. Enrico Battaglin was amazingly strong in these uphill sprints in the first part of his career, claiming victories in both the Giro and Coppa Sabatini. He has been very inconsistent recently and did very poorly in 2015. However, he is likely to be motivated in his new team and it will be interesting to see if LottoNL-Jumbo can make him improve. He has tried to test himself in the flat sprints which don’t really suit him so he will definitely give it a go in a stage that is much better for him.

 

Lobato is not the only Movistar contender for this stage. Jose Joaquin Rojas has been up there in the fast and he seems to be climbing better and better every year. He is always very strong at the start of the season and it is unlikely to be any different this time around. However, despite his status as a sprinter, he seems to always be beaten by riders that should actually be slower than him. Hence, he rarely wins and it will be a bit of a surprise if he actually comes out on top. However, he should certainly be up there.

 

Sky have more cards to play as this could also be a very good stage for Ben Swift. Among the sprinters, he is one of the very best climbers and nearly won last year’s Coppi e Bartali. His performances in the first two sprints indicate that his form is pretty good, even though it remains to be seen how well he is climbing. However, he has always been flying from the start of the year and this will make him a contender in this finale.

 

Trek have two cards to play in this stage, Kiel Reijnen and Julian Arredondo, but it is the latter that is most likely to create a surprise. The Colombian has had a horrible 2015 season as he was hampered by injuries but he hopes to have left his troubles behind him. It still remains to be seen whether that’s the case but he rode attentively near the front in today’s stage, indicating that he is ambitious. Two years ago he won two mountain stages in San Luis so he knows how to start his season well and he should benefit from the tougher course. He would have preferred a harder finale but should be able to do well here.

 

IAM have two contenders for this stage. Jarlinson Pantano is here for the GC and is usually very strong at this time of the year. He is fast in a sprint as he proved in last year’s Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Romandie and on paper this finale should suit him really well. If he has improved compared to last year, he could make up for Pelucchi’s disappointments in the first two races. Tanner is another strong contender as the Australian is getting better and better. He was sprinting really well in Austria last year and showed huge improvement in the Ardennes. Being an Australian, he is likely to be in very good condition.

 

Dimension Data will try to set Nathan Haas up for the sprint. The Australian was fifth overall in 2014 and hopes to again contend for GC. On paper, the Stirling stage suits him down to the ground and he was ninth in last year’s sprint. This year he seems to be in even better condition as he rode strongly at Nationals.

 

Finally, Oscar Gatto deserves a mention. The Italian was once very strong in these finales but he had a terrible 2015 season. Furthermore, he has rarely been too strong at the start of the year so it remains to be seen whether he is already in a good condition. On the other hand, Adam Blythe claims that his new teammate looked very strong in the opening stage. The amount of climbing will probably be a bit too much for Gatto but he has the speed to finish it off if he is still there in the end.

 

Swift, Rojas, Bevin, Battaglin, Tsatveich, Roux, Van Rensburg, Haas, Arredondo, Clarke, Pantano, Sanchez, Thomas, Gatto, McCarthy, Fernandez, Ligthart, Kenanugh, Tanner, Dennis, Eare Herrada, Woods, Gautier, Vakoc, Mannion, Moser, Lagutin,  Reijnen

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Diego Ulissi

Other winner candidates: Juan Jose Lobato, Simon Gerrans

Outsiders: Sergio Henao, Patrick Bevin, Enrico Battaglin, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Ben Swift

Jokers: Julian Arredondo, Jarlinson Pantano, David Tanner, Nathan Haas, Oscar Gatto, Anthony Roux

 

Betting tips

Louis Meintjes to beat Rein Taaramäe - 1.83 at Bet365

At this time of year, it is always difficult to find out which riders have the form to contend for the win and who have ambitions in the general classification. On paper Rein Taaramäe should be one of Katushas captains, but there are indications that he is not in Australia to obtain results. He spent most of the first stages in the rear end of the peloton and it's usually an indication that the ambitions are limited. It was striking that he was among the very last to cross the line.

 

Louis Meintjes is primarily in Australia to support Diego Ulissi who is one of the big favorites for the Stirling stage. However, he has also indicated that he has goals for the GC and so he must be attentive in tomorrow's stage. He is neither explosive nor good at positioning himself so the stage doesn’t him. However, he seems to have more ambitions than Taaramäe and should beat the Estonian.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Diego Ulissi to beat Simon Gerrans - 1.83 at Bet365

On paper it looks like a battle between former winners Diego Ulissi and Juan Jose Lobato, and Simon Gerrans who has previously been close to victory in Stirling. Ulissi and Gerrans are specialists in this kind of sprint, but the Italian is probably the strongest. This was the case two years ago when they were both in very good form at this race, and since it is a big target for both in 2016, they are expected to be at a high level.

 

An in-form Ulissi is very difficult to beat in this type of finales - just remember how he dominated the uphill sprints at the Giro in 2014. Last year he beat Gerrans in the Giro stage to Fiuggi which has a finish that is very similar to the onein Stirling . At the same time, Gerrans was anything but impressive in the Australian championships, and it appears that he is not quite as strong as he has traditionally been in this race.

 

Ulissi’s challenge is the fight for position which is not one of his strengths, and the fact that Gerrans has a great lead-out with Daryl Impey and Michael Albasini. However the harder route should make the race more selective, thus making these disadvantages less important. That makes Ulissi our favorite in this duel.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Ben Swift to beat Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg - 1.53 at Bet365

We openly admit that the 1.53 is not impressive. However, this duel has an overwhelming favourite. Ben Swift is one of the best climbers among the sprinters and this finale is made for him. At the same time, he is usually in very good shape at this time of the year and this has been confirmed by his performance in the first sprints which did not suit him.

 

On his best days, Reinardt Janse van Rensburg can also do well in these finals, but the South African is in Australia with a different mission. Dimension Data goes for GC with Nathan Haas (and Cameron Meyer) and the Australian targets bonus seconds in a finale that suits him very well. Therefore, Van Rensburg is likely to play a lead-out role while Swift is likely to take his own chance.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Diego Ulissi to the stage - 5.00 at Bet365

Read our analysis of the favourites.

 

You can place your bet here.