An unfortunate crash prevented us from getting the expected showdown by the puncheurs and GC riders in the uphill sprint in Stirling but it didn’t prevent Jay McCarthy from moving himself much closer to the top of the list of GC contenders with a marvelous performance. However, we will be a lot wiser about the real shape of the favourites when the Corkscrew climb has provided the first real indications of who’s going to win the first WorldTour race of the year.

 

The course

Like last year the riders will have to wait until the third day to really make their mark but stage 3 is a great chance to try to make a difference. The Corkscrew climb was a very popular addition to the race in 2013 and featured again in 2014. The race skipped the climb in 2015 but this year it will again provide the first indication of the potential winners of the race.

 

At 139km, it is another pretty short stage and again the distance from the start in Glenelg just south of Adelaide to the finish in Campbelltown is pretty short. To build the distance, the riders will again have to zigzag their way through the area in the first part of the stage. In the first part, they will travel along flat roads close to the coast until they get to Old Noarlunga after 20km of racing. Here they will leave the coast and contest the first intermediate sprint at the 33.8km mark before they start a long, gradually ascending section as they head northeast towards the finishing city. However, there will be no major climbs and the road will again be flat after a short descent that leads to the feed zone.

 

The flat roads will continue past the second intermediate sprint at the 95.2km mark until the riders get to a descending section just before they reach the northernmost point of the course. From here it is downhill all the way to the bottom of the category 1 Corkscrew climb which brings the descending to an abrupt end. It is 2.5km long and has an average gradient of 8.8%. The first 1.1km averages around 8% while there are double-digit gradients between the 1.1km and 1.7km marks. The final 800m are easier. The summit of the ascent comes just 5.7km from the finish and from there it is a downhill run all the way to the finish in Campbelltown. The road is winding until the riders get to the final right-hand turn 500m from the line.

 

Corkscrew climb first featured on the course in 2013 when Geraint Thomas confirmed his climbing potential by riding to a solo win, holding off Javier Moreno and Ben Hermans by a single second. One year later Cadel Evans dropped all his rivals and reached the finish with a 15-second advantage over a small chase group. Campbelltown also hosted a stage finish in 2015 but one year ago they didn’t tackle the Corkscrew climb. Instead, Jack Bobridge took a surprise win on a stage that was expected to be for the sprinters.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first two days have been brutally hot and it won’t be much different for stage 3 before rain and colder conditions can be expected for stage 4. Thursday will be a bit cloudier though and it will take a bit longer for the temperature to reach its maximum of 31 degrees. With a bit of luck, it will stay below the 30-degree mark for the entire stage.

 

It will be less windy than it has been in the first two stages as there will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind when they travel along the coast and then face a long crosswind section in the middle part of the stage. In the final part, there will be a headwind before the riders turn into a crosswind in the section leading to the climb. There will be a crosswind on the ascent and a headwind on the descent.

 

The favourites

All was set for an exciting uphill sprint in Stirling when a touch of wheels between Lieuwe Westra and Daryl Impey slowed down a big part of the peloton and only a small group was left to sprint for the win. Unfortunately, that prevented us from gauging the condition of many of the overall contenders and the indications are a lot less clear for tomorrow’s first big GC test than we had hoped for.

 

We may not have got the showdown that we were hoping for but it can’t take anything away from Jay McCarthy. His sprint was very impressive and it would have been very difficult for anyone to beat. Diego Ulissi was not hampered by the crash and is one of the very best in these kinds of finales. Initially, he seemed to be passing the Australian but impressively the Tinkoff leader managed to stop Ulissi’s progress and take a well-deserved breakthrough win.

 

We had already marked McCarthy out as an overall contender at the start of the race but his performance in today’s stage strengths his position significantly. However, there is still a vast difference between doing a sprint on a relatively gentle slope and competing with the best climbers on Willunga Hill and Corkscrew Roads. Those climbs are both a lot steeper and longer and even though explosiveness is important on that kind of relatively short ascents, it suits the climbers a lot more than today’s finish.

 

Today’s stage gave a few indications but we have no real answers yet. Tomorrow we will be a lot wiser as the Corkscrew climb will provide us with the first real indications. It is clearly the hardest climb of the race and it is a lot steeper than Willunga Hill which is more suited to explosive riders. Even though there is a downhill finish, this is the best chance for the climbers to really make a difference.

 

The roads are slightly descending for more than 10km before the climb, meaning that the riders will be riding very fast by the time they make a sharp turn to hit the climb and they will have to get back up to speed from what is almost a complete standstill. The climb is harder than the Torrens Hill Road that featured in last year’s third stage and bigger differences can be made. With just a short downhill run to the finish, there will be little time to organize a chase. It is important to notice that the distance from the top of the climb to the finish is shorter than it was in 2013 and 2014 which means that there will be less time to get back into contention. The last two editions of the stage have proved that it is possible for the best climber to take a solo win and this will be even easier in 2016.

 

The first part of the stage is very easy and it should be a relatively calm and easy affair until things heat up in the finale. There will be a cross-tailwind in the first coastal section but it is unlikely to be strong enough to split the field. In general, there will be a crosswind for most of the day but it should have no impact on the outcome.

 

There will be no KOM sprints before Corkscrew which means that there is less incentive for riders to go on the attack. Hence, we can expect the break to be established relatively early and this will probably also take the intermediate sprints out of the game for the GC riders. Today Orica-GreenEDGE worked hard to set Simon Gerrans up for some bonus seconds and there is a chance that they will try to do so for the first sprint again. However, it comes relatively late in the stage and with such a difficult finale, Gerrans will probably keep his powder dry for the key climb.

 

For once, Orica-GreenEDGE will probably be allowed to take a back seat. This is the most difficult stage for Gerrans and there is a risk that he won’t be able to follow the best climbers. Hence, it would be welcome if a break could take away the bonus seconds at the finish so they probably won’t do too much chase work. Instead, Tinkoff will do the job to control the early break but they don’t necessarily want to bring the break back either.

 

As opposed to this, BMC have red-circled this as a very important day for Rohan Dennis and so the American team will probably take control if it is needed. Sky are likely to have similar plans and that should make sure that the early break is caught. In any case, it will be very hard to stay away in the final part of the race as the fight for position for the climb will be very intense. For such a short climb, positioning is crucial and all hopes of glory are almost over for riders in the rear end of the group. Rohan Dennis had extreme luck not to lose the overall win on the similar climb of Mt. Torrens Road in 2015. With everybody being aware of the importance of positioning, it will be extremely fast in the downhill run to the line which means that we could very well have crashes. In any case, it should spell the end for the break before we get to the climb where it will all come down to a big showdown between the best climbers.

 

The main question is whether it will be possible for a single rider to ride away. If that’s the case, the lone leader is likely to stay away. There will be a headwind in the finale but it will be very hard for anyone to organize a chase as nobody probably has any teammates left. If the leaders are all isolated, a lone leader is even likely to increase his lead in the final part. However, if a single rider is unable to escape, there is a chance that we get a sprint from a small group and this plays into the hands of the faster riders.

 

History shows that the climb is hard enough for a single rider to escape. The double-digit gradients in the second part suit the real climbers and they have to make the difference there before they get to the final few hundred metres that are easier. Furthermore, the climb is so short that it has to be made hard right from the beginning if the climbers want to make a difference. That’s what Sky and BMC want so we expect them to hit the front as soon as they start the climb. Sky have lots of strong classics riders and have managed to dominate the finales every time until now so we expect them to be in charge right from the bottom. Peter Kennaugh seems to be in great condition and he can set a very fast pace. BMC have Peter Velits and Alessandro De Marchi and maybe even an in-form Danilo Wyss to make things tough and are even likely to use Richie Porte who is ready to work for Dennis.

 

Going into the race, we made Sergio Henao our favourite to win the race and until now we have seen nothing that prompts us to change our stance. The Colombian was riding strongly in the front end of the peloton in today’s stage and managed to finish in the top 10. He has a decent punch in this kind of finish but has no chance to beat the faster riders on such easy gradients. Hence, it proves that his condition is good as it has always been at this time of the year.

 

Tomorrow the climb will be a lot steeper and the double-digit gradient really suits Henao who has that Ardennes kick on the steepest slopes. It is no coincidence that he has always been among the best in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and been second in Fleche Wallonne. Of course Corkscrew Road is not as hard as the climbs that he finds in those races but it should be hard enough for an in-form Henao to make a difference.

 

Furthermore, Henao has a decent sprint. Of course he needs to get rid of the likes of Diego Ulissi and Simon Gerrans but compared to most of the climbers, he should come out on top in a sprint battle. If he escapes solo or with one or two riders, there is a solid chance that they will stay away and then Henao has a big chance to come away with the win. Hence, he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

After the road race at the Australian National Championships, we were not very impressed by Rohan Dennis who had blown up completely in the final two laps. However, the signs after the first two stages are a lot more promising and it doesn’t seem to be any coincidence that the BMC captain claims his form to be better than it was 12 months ago.

 

Dennis is not an explosive climber and for him to finish third in Stirling is an indication of form. Of course he would not have been on the podium if it hadn’t been for the crash but he still managed to beat some very fast riders in a finale that didn’t suit him. We won’t be overly surprised if he manages to ride away from everyone in the steepest part and take a solo win like he did in a similar stage 12 months ago. To win the stage he needs to get rid of the faster guys though and even though he has a decent sprint, he will be no match if he has to sprint against the likes of Ulissi and Gerrans.

 

Diego Ulissi missed out on the win in today’s stage but proved that his form is very good. That’s no surprise as he had already indicated that he is targeting a top result in Australia and he has placed himself firmly in contention. He is very strong on short, explosive climbs and even though the less steep gradients in Willunga probably suit him a bit better, he has proved that he can handle steep climbs too.

 

Ulissi has not been great since his suspension but showed signs of improvement towards the end of last season. We don’t think that he will be able to take a solo win here but as only Gerrans is faster than him among the GC contenders, he just has to get rid of the Australian to take the win in a sprint from a reduced group.

 

When it comes to climbing skills, only Richie Porte is probably stronger than Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian has turned himself into one of the most consistent riders in the world and he is already at a very high level. It has taken him some time to get back after his crash in last year’s Giro but his performance in today’s explosive finish indicates that he is in great shape. The steep gradients suit him very well and even though he is not an explosive rider, he has a decent punch. Of course he has to arrive solo at the finish but that certainly won’t be impossible.

 

One rider that has already achieved that feat on this climb is Geraint Thomas.  At the start of the race, the Welshman said that he targeted a stage win and a top 10 in this race and he claimed to be much better than he was in 2014 and 2015. That seems to be true as he has looked very strong in his lead-out efforts and he appeared to be at ease in today’s finale until he was held up by the crash. His climbing is getting better and better and as he also has a solid sprint, he has numerous options in this stage. With Henao at his side, Sky may even play the team game.

 

This stage is the biggest challenge for Simon Gerrans. The Australian is a great rider for the Ardennes classics but he is not very comfortable on very steep climbs and always skips Fleche Wallonne. Corkscrew Road is probably a bit too steep for him and we doubt that he will be able to follow the very best. That doesn’t mean that he can’t win the stage as a lack of cooperation means that we could get a regrouping on the descent. If Gerrans can make it back, no one will beat him in a sprint, especially not if he has an in-form Daryl Impey at his side.

 

Lotto Soudal is aiming for the GC with Rafael Valls who has flown under the radar until now. He is usually very strong at the start of the season and last year was a bit of a breakthrough for him. He beat a much stronger field in the Tour of Oman 12 months ago and if he has a similar form here, he will be very hard to follow on a climb that suits him well.

 

Is Julian Arredondo finally back from this many injuries? Last year was a nightmare for the explosive Colombian but today’s performance indicates that he is getting back to his best. He was up there in the finale of a stage which was a bit too easy for him. He is one of the most explosive riders on steep gradient so Corkscrew should be ride up his alley. One just has to remember how he won two stages in San Luis at this time of the season two years ago. If he is at a similar level here, he could again claim a win.

 

We were a bit surprised to see Rein Taaramae at the back of the field in stage 1 as it indicated that he is not going for GC here. However, he was back near the front in today’s stage and so he seems to be ready to go for glory. The Estonian seems to finally have left his health issues behind him and it seems that he can finally fulfill the potential that made him one of the most exciting talents a few years ago. If he has the level he had at last year’s Vuelta a Burgos, he could emerge as the best climber in this race.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez is the Astana captain but we have higher expectations for Lieuwe Westra. The Dutchman claims to have lived like a monk during the winter, staying alone in Spain during Christmas. This year he wants to achieve personal results and he claims that he would have been in contention for the stage win today if he had not been brought down in the crash. In fact, he claimed that he could not even feel his legs in the finale. He went down hard today so it remains to be seen how he has recovered but it could finally be time for him to reemerge as a GC contender.

 

Cameron Meyer is a former winner of this race and he seems to be riding at a very high level. He was second at Nationals where he was the best climber and he stayed close to the best in today’s stage that didn’t suit him. Last year he climbed very well in this race while working for Impey and this year he seems to be even better. He could be the one to ride to a solo win.

 

Cannondale have Simon Clarke as their captain but we believe that Michael Woods will do better. The Canadian was second in last year’s Tour of Utah and fifth in the queen stage in Algarve where he proved that he can also do well on short, steep climbs. He was near the front in today’s stage and claims to be in good condition. Of course it will be hard to win a stage in his first WorldTour race but he could be a surprise.

 

Etixx-QuickStep are supporting Petr Vakoc in this race. The Czech is not a real climber but last year’s performance in the Tour of Britain indicates that he is now very strong in this kind of terrain. His sprint in today’s stage was very impressive as he was held up behind the crash. He is probably a bit too big to follow the best but if it comes down to a sprint from a small group, he will be a contender.

 

Patrick Lane is another rider to watch. He was third at Nationals where he climbed much better than many WorldTour riders. Today he was also riding strongly near the front. Of course this race is at another level but it will be interesting to see how he handles this challenge.

 

Finally, Jay McCarthy deserves a mention. The race leader is strong on short, steep climbs but obviously he has never proved that he can climb with the best at this level. However, his performance today was very impressive and it won’t be easy to drop him on the Corkscrew. With his fast sprint, he has a chance to make it two in a row.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sergio Henao

Other winner candidates: Rohan Dennis, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Geraint Thomas, Simon Gerrans, Rafael Valls

Jokers: Julian Arredondo, Rein Taaramae, Lieuwe Westra, Cameron Meyer, Michael Woods, Petr Vakoc, Jay McCarthy, Patrick Lane

 

For simplicity, we give you an overview over GC riders:

BMC: Dennis, Porte

Orica-GreenEDGE: Gerrans (maybe Impey will finish high as well while working as a domestique)

Giant-Alpecin: Ludvigsson, Preidler

Sky: Henao, Thomas, Kennaugh

Lotto Soudal: Valls

Cannondale: Clarke, Bevin, Woods, Moser

Trek: Arredondo

Tinkoff: McCarthy

Ag2r: Pozzovivo

Astana: Sanchez, Westra

Kausha: Mchado, Silin, Taaramae

FDJ: Morabito, Roux

Movistar: Fernandez, Herrada

IAM: Pantano

Etixx-QuickStep: Vakoc, Verona, De La Cruz

LottoNL-Jumbo: Bennett, Roglic, Battaglin

Lampre-Merida: Ulissi, Grmay, Meintjes

Dimension Data: Meyer, Haas

Drapac: Spokes, Earle, Mannion, Norris

UniSA: Lane

 

Betting tips

Julian Arredondo to beat Luis Leon Sanchez - 2.20 at Bet365

After the amazing 2014 season, Julian Arredondo had an annus horribilis in 2015 when unexplained health problems prevented him from living up to the high expectations. However, he is now convinced that he has found the reason for his travails and hopes to be back at his best level.

 

His performance in today's finale indicates that he is wright and thus he adds himself to the list of outsiders for the overall victory. He is among the most explosive climbers and so Corkscrew should suit him well. Two years ago he won two stages at the Tour de San Luis using his famous punch, and that ability will again bring him far on a stage like tomorrow’s

 

Sanchez was once excellent in the week-long stage races of the early season, but nowadays he is more of a helper even though he leads his team in this race. He is not climbing at the same level as he did earlier, and he was unable to follow the best on the climbs in last year's Tour Down Under. Nothing suggests that it will be different this year, and although he will undoubtedly be near the front, it will be a surprise if he is among the first 10 on top of a steep climb like Corkscrew.

 

It is evident that there is much uncertainty regarding Arredondo but it is very difficult to argue that Sanchez is a relatively big favorite. That makes the bet attractive.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo to beat Richie Porte - 1.72 at Bet365

If he had been in great form, Richie Porte would be among the big favorites for this stage, but that is not the case. On the contrary, he admits that he is far from his best, and he is primarily in Australia to help Rohan Dennis. It was a clear indication of the lack of ambition that he finished far back in today’s stage and it will be no surprise if his task will be to set a fast pace from the bottom of the climb.

 

Conversely, Domenico Pozzovivo is the Ag2r captain, and he has developed into one of the most consistent riders in the peloton. He finished in the top 10 in all races he completed from January 2014 until his dramatic crash in last year's Giro if we exclude a few comeback races shortly after his broken leg in the fall of 2014. In this race, he seems to be at its usual high level and was in an excellent position on today’s stage which did not suit him. He is certainly not explosive but has a reasonable punch, and last year he was among the best on the climbs in Australia. He should be a very big favourite in this bet.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Diego Ulissi to beat Simon Gerrans - 2.00 at Bet365

Simon Gerrans is a specialist in this race which he has won three times. However, he has always had a difficult time on the Corkscrew climb which is a bit too steep for him, and in the previous editions his main goal has been to limit his losses. As a Liege winner, he is an expert on short climbs but his strategy is typically to try to follow the best and make use of its good sprint.

 

Unfortunately, we were not able to see what Gerrans could do in today's finale but based on his performance at the Australian championships, he is not at his usual level. As opposed to this, Diego Ulissi was very strong today, and it is no coincidence that he has made the Tour Down Under a big goal. He has a much better track record as a climber and has a better opportunity to follow the best on a climb like this.

 

Obviously Gerrans is faster than Ulissi – even though he is fast too - so the bet is far from certain. However, it is difficult to argue that Gerrans is the favorite here.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Rein Taaramäe to beat Tiago Machado - odds 2.00 at Bet365

Katusha have two captains in Australia, and both Tiago Machado and Rein Taaramäe did well in today’s stage that didn’t suit them. Tomorrow’s tough climb is far better for the duo and both should be among the best.

 

After years of health problems, Taaramäe found his top level in the second half of 2015, and he was nothing less than frightening in the Vuelta a Burgos. As opposed to this, Machado was far from his previous level, and there are indications that he has primarily set to play a domestique role in most races later in the year. At the same time, Taaramäe has a bit more punch on this kind of climb and so tomorrow's finale suits him better. Finally, he is faster in a sprint while Machado usually ends in the rear end when small groups arrive together. That makes Taaramäe a favorite in the internal Katusha duel.

 

You can place your bet here.