By gauging his effort perfectly and timing his sprint excellently, Simon Gerrans proved why he has had so much success at the Tour Down Under and now finds himself in pole position. All is set for a big showdown between the GC riders in Willunga but first the contenders need to get safely through the potential windy and tricky fourth stage that has often created carnage in the opening WorldTour race.

 

The course

For the pure sprinters, the first part of the 2016 Tour Down Under was a tough one but they can expect to be back in the spotlight on the fourth day. As it is often the case, the fourth stage will see the riders head down to the Flerieu Peninsula just south of Adelaide where the sprinters have often had a chance to shine and it seems that this year will be no different. However, the inclusion of a new climb close to the traditional finish in Victor Harbor could throw a spanner in the works for some of the fast riders.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 138km from the Adelaide suburb of Norwood to Victor Harbor which hosts the finish of stage 4 almost every year. As usual, the first part of the stage is slightly ascending as the riders climb out of Adelaide for the first 10km. Then the road is slightly descending as the riders pass through stage 2’s finish in Stirling and get to the first intermediate sprint after 27.6km of racing. From there, they will continue their southerly journey along flat roads until another descending section will lead to the feed zone in Strathalbyn after 66.7km of racing.

 

Having reached the Flerieu Peninsula, the roads are now completely flat as the riders continue their southerly journey until they get to the final intermediate sprint in the coastal city of Goolwa at the 100.9km mark. From here they will follow the coastal road towards the finish in Victor Harbor but the organizers have made a slight change that will be an unpleasant surprise for the sprinters. Instead of continuing straight to the finish, they will head inlands to tackle the category 2 climb of Kirby Hill. It’s around 4km long and has an average gradient of 5.6%, with the steepest 10% sections coming near the top.

 

The summit is located 19.8km from the finish. It is followed by a short flat section before the riders turn around and head back to the coast and the finish in Victor Harbor. The final 13km are predominantly flat but there’s another small climb 3km from the finish. The riders then get to a fast descent with 1.3km to go before they hit a small climb at the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is flat. The finale is a bit technical as the riders will turn right with 800m to go and then do the final left-hand turn just 200m later.

 

In the first years, Victor Harbor hosted a stage almost every year but since 2010 it has only been visited in 2014 when André Greipel won a reduced bunch sprint, and in 2012 when Greipel also came out on top. Graeme Brown and Allan Davis won there in 2009 and 2008 respectively while Baden Cooke, Luis Leon Sanchez, Philippe Gilbert, Robbie McEwen, Alessio Galletti and Stuart O’Grady won there before the race joined the WorldTour.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first three stages have been characterized by extreme heat but the weather is set to change for the final three days. Overnight, heavy rain has hit South Australia and this will make the temperature drop significantly. For tomorrow’s stage there will be a 25% risk of rain in the morning while there is a 50% and 75% risk in the early and late afternoon respectively. The maximum temperature will only be 28 degrees.

 

Wind is always the key issue in stages to Victor Harbor. However, there won’t be much of it tomorrow as a relatively light breeze will be blowing from a westerly direction. This means that it will be a crosswind from the right for most of the day until the riders turn into a headwind after the final intermediate sprint with 37.1km to go. There will be a crosswind on the final climb and a cross-headwind on the descent. There will be a tailwind for the final 2.3km.

 

The favourites

We claimed in yesterday’s preview that the Corkscrew climb would be the sternest test for Simon Gerrans if he wants to take win number four in his home race. After his excellent performance, he definitely passed it with excellent marks and now finds himself in a good position.

 

Gerrans is no pure climber and as we wrote yesterday, it would be hard for him to follow the best. He came up short against Sergio Henao, Michael Woods, Richie Porte and Domenico Pozzovivo but used his huge experience to gauge his effort well. He was lucky to have two BMC riders in the group which made it possible to keep things together and when it came down to a sprint, the outcome was never in doubt – even though Dennis proved to be harder to beat than expected.

 

Gerrans now has a solid lead but he definitely can’t rest on his laurels. The less steep climb of Willunga suits him a lot better and should be closer to the best there. He will probably be able to keep up with closest rival Jay McCarthy and Dennis didn’t look as strong as expected. However, Woods and Henao lived up to our expectations and they clearly seem to be the best climbers in the race. Both are still within striking distance and with a 10-second time bonus on Willunga, Gerrans still has an awful lot of work to do if he wants to win the race overall. There is no doubt that he regrets the lost time bonus on stage 2.

 

The close battle in GC turns tomorrow’s fourth stage into an interesting one. On paper, it may look like a straightforward affair for the sprinters and in the past only the strong wind in the area has been able to do some damage. Tomorrow is forecasted to be a calm day and even though there will be a crosswind almost all day, it probably won’t be enough to split the field.

 

Instead, it is the inclusion of a late climb that can change the dynamics of the stage and turn it into a very important day. A 4km ascent with an average gradient of 5.5% and a maximum 0f 10% near the top can do quite some damage if it is ridden at a fast pace. This puts Orica-GreenEDGE into an interesting dilemma: do they go for the stage win with Caleb Ewan or for bonus seconds for Gerrans?

 

There is no doubt that Ewan is the big favourite if it comes down to a sprint finish and it must be tempting to work fully for the youngster. On the other hand, Gerrans has won reduced bunch sprints in the past – just recall how he beat Peter Sagan on stage 3 of the 2013 Tour de France. In fact, he did so in this race two years when he even beat André Greipel in the bunch sprint on a very similar opening stage that had included the even harder Mengler’s Hill in the finale. It would be no bad idea for Orica-GreenEDGE to create a selection on the climb and try to set Gerrans up for the sprint. However, there is a risk that they will only eliminate Ewan and see Gerrans getting beaten by faster sprinters at the finish.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have historically used this stage as a GC day. Last year they rode aggressively in the intermediate sprint to gain seconds for Daryl Impey and two years ago they split the field in the crosswinds. Tomorrow they again have some tough tactical decisions to make.

 

At the same time, the race is likely to be a lot more aggressive than it has been in the last few stages. At this point in the race, breakaways have better chances. At the same time, many sprinters will be uncertain about their chances on the final climb and so there is probably less interest in the chase. Orica-GreenEDGE sports director Matthew White has mentioned the possibility that a break will stay away and the rain will only make that even more likely.

 

This should set the scene for an aggressive start. The climb at the beginning can make things tough and riders are likely to get into difficulty as they did two days ago when they also climbed out of Adelaide right from the start. It will probably take some time for the break to get formed and it is definitely not impossible that Orica-GreenEDGE will keep things together for the first intermediate sprint.

 

In any case, we will get an early break at least after the sprint and it could be a pretty strong group. Orica-GreenEDGE will assume their position on the front of the peloton with Michael Hepburn and Luke Durbridge and they should be interested in bringing things back together regardless of their choice of strategy. Trek have lost most of their GC hopes as Julian Arredondo crashed yesterday so their main goal is a stage win with Nizzolo. They could lend a hand and the same goes for Lampre-Merida that have been close to the win with Marko Kump. That means that there should be enough interest in the chase to prevent a breakaway win.

 

The crosswind will make things nervous but we don’t expect it to split the field. The final intermediate sprint could come into play but if Orica-GreenEDGE decide to go for Gerrans in the finale, he will probably keep his powder dry for the final sprint where there are more seconds on offer.

 

The big issue is what is going to happen on the final climb. Will Orica-GreenEDGE put Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey on the front to get rid of the sprinters or will they focus on Ewan? In any case, we expect a pretty fast climb. This is a good opportunity for Juan Jose Lobato and Jose Joaquin Rojas so Moistar have a clear interest in a tough finale. Nizzolo is also one of the better climbers so Trek may even contribute to the pace-setting and there will definitely be a selection. The main question is which riders will survive.

 

In the final part of the stage, we can expect a big chase if some of the key sprinters have been distanced. That should make for a fast finish and we expect it to come down to a reduced bunch sprint in Victor Harbor.

 

Last year Juan Jose Lobato won the Stirling stage but this year he came up short. However, he was still up there in seventh place and managed to survive the bigger amount of climbing. This shows that his form is not too bad and he is usually one of the best climbers among the sprinters. Even though he is always climbing pretty inconsistently – sometimes he is dropped where you least expect it – he should be able to survive the final challenge in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Lobato has often proved that he has an amazing speed but his poor position had often been costly. It will be less of an issue in tomorrow’s stage if there is a big selection on the final climb. Movistar will probably try to make the field as small as possible and this will make it much easier for Lobato to finally get into a good position for the sprint. We expect the final climb to be too tough for Caleb Ewan, Giacomo Nizzolo and Wouter Wippert who are probably the three fastest guys in addition to Lobato. If that’s the case, he could easily be the fastest rider in the group that sprints for the win and this turns him into our favourite for the stage.

 

As said, Simon Gerrans won a very similar stage two years ago and we expect Orica-GreenEDGE to play the Gerrans card. They can’t really allow themselves to let the bonus seconds slip away so they need to make it hard on the climb. That means that Gerrans is likely to be one of the fastest riders in the bunch and if Ewan is left behind, he will be the protected rider in the sprint.

 

Of course the likes of Lobato, Ben Swift and Jose Joaquin Rojas are usually faster but Gerrans has a big advantage: his lead-out. Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey will both survive the climb and both are very fast riders. Furthermore, Impey is one of the best lead-out men and the technical finale will make lead-outs more important than actual speed. This plays into Gerrans’ hands and he has proved that he can win this kind of bunch sprint.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE can also play the Caleb Ewan card and the youngster will certainly do his best to hang onto the peloton. He is actually a pretty good climber – he did well at the U23 Worlds in Florence on a very hard course and last year he survived some very tough climbing in the Tour de Pologne. However, while he has been sprinting well, he has not been climbing at his best level, neither in this race nor at Nationals. If the riders go full gas on the final climb, it will be tough for him to stay in contention. If he makes the selection, he will of course be the protected sprinter for Orica-GreenEDGE and his past performances and his excellent lead-out prove that he is very unlikely to get beaten in any sprint in this race.

 

Usually, Giacomo Nizzolo is one of the best climbers among the sprinters and if he had been in top condition, we would probably have made him our favourite for this stage. Last year he proved how much his climbing has improved when he followed Nibali’s attack in Tre Valli Varesine but he is obviously not in the same kind of form here. He has finished far back in the last two stages and we doubt that he has the condition to stay with the best. However, if he makes it, he will be one of the favourites as the technical finale suits him very well and he can rely on Kiel Reijnen to lead him out.

 

In the first sprint stages, Sky have dominated the lead-outs and Ben Swift has done pretty well in flat sprints that usually don’t suit him very well. He is an excellent climber – last year he nearly won the Coppi e Bartali overall – and this kind of stage is right up his alley. However, he didn’t climb very well in Stirling and he is clearly not in his best condition and it remains to be seen if he can handle this kind of climb. However, it should usually be a pretty easy affair and we expect him to be there in the finale. If Sky can nail the lead-out as they have done recently, Swift could open their account.

 

Last year Steele von Hoff won the fourth stage and he would love to repeat that performance. The UniSA sprinter has not had much luck in the first sprints where he has paid the price for a lack of team support but his performance in today’s stage proves that he is climbing really well. That has always been the case in the Tour Down Under and he should be able to survive the climb. On paper, that will make him one of the fastest riders but he will again suffer from the lack of an experienced lead-out. However, he has the speed to win from a reduced group.

 

Marko Kump has been sprinting really well in his return to the WorldTour and usually this kind of stage is one for him. He is no pure sprinter and needs a harder finale like this one to really shine. However, while he has been sprinting really well, he has been near the rear end of the peloton in the harder stages and this may indicate that he is not climbing too well. However, it could also be a question of energy conservation and if that’s the case, he should be there in the finale. His sprinting form shows that he will be a contender.

 

Lobato is not the only Movistar card in this kind of stage. Jose Joaquin Rojas is in great condition as he proved by finishing close to the best on the tough Corkscrew climb. There is no doubt that he will survive tomorrow’s challenge and the two Movistar sprinters are usually doing their own separate sprints. For some reason, Rojas seems to never win the sprints in which he should be the fastest and he will probably have to settle for another place of honor. However, his stage win in last year’s Tour of Qatar proves that he is always a contender for a sprint finish.

 

This stage is probably too hard for Cannondale sprinter Wouter Wippert so the American team will probably have to turn their attention to Patrick Bevin. The neo-pro has won lots of sprints in the past and has proved his good form right from the beginning of this race. He was up there on the Corkscrew and he will hope for an extremely tough finale. He can probably rely on Michael Woods, Moreno Moser and Ruben Zepuntke to put him into position and so he should be up there.

 

Dimension Data probably don’t expect Mark Renshaw or Tyler Farrar to make the selection but they still have a good card to play. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg rarely gets a chance to sprint for himself but he is pretty fast. He was sixth in the opening criterium and has been climbing really well in this race. With Nathan Haas as a solid lead-out man, he should be able to do well.

 

Enrico Battaglin is very inconsistent and you never know what to expect from the talented Italian. He has had a bad 2015 season but seems to be riding reasonably well at the start of his first year at WorldTour level. He set the pace on the lower slopes of the Corkscrew and created a big selection and he will definitely have no trouble to make it over the climb. He has tried to mix it up in the sprints which have obviously not suited him but in a smaller group he should do better.

 

If the going gets too tough for Giacomo Nizzolo, Trek will play the Kiel Reijnen card. He is making his WorldTour debut in this race and this kind of stage is his specialty. He has won several stages from reduced bunch sprints in the biggest American races and he will be keen to make up for the bad luck that has seen him puncture four times in the first two stages.

 

As Adam Blythe is unlikely to make the selection, Oscar Gatto will probably do the sprint for Tinkoff. He no longer seems to be as fast as he once was but he still has a decent kick. He was climbing solidly in Stirling so his form isn’t too bad. He is probably not fast enough to win but he should still be able to do well.

 

For other fast riders that can survive the climb, look to Alexey Tsatevich, David Tannerk, Anthony Roux and Petr Vakoc.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Juan Jose Lobato

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Caleb Ewan

Outsiders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Ben Swift, Steele Von Hoff, Marko Kump, Jose Joaquin Rojas

Jokers: Patrick Bevin, Enrico Battaglin, Kiel Reijnen, Oscar Gatto

 

Betting tips

Reinardt Janse van Rensburg to beat Patrick Bevin - 2.37 at Bet365

Neither Patrick Bevin nor Reinardt Janse van Rensburg are the main sprinters in their team, but tomorrow is a big chance for them to play their own cards. The last climb is probably too hard for Cannondale’s Wouter Wippert and Dimension Data's Mark Renshaw and Tyler Farrar, and that means that they are suddenly the fastest in their respective teams.

 

Bevin is making his debut in the World Tour at this race and is a fast rider who has won many sprints at a lower level. Van Rensburg has primarily served as a lead-out man and has rarely had his own chance in the bunch sprints. However, he is not lacking speed which he proved by being sixth in the People's Choice Classic.

 

Both Bevin and van Rensburg are in excellent form. The former is clearly the best climber but we have been particularly impressed with the South African’s performance on the climbs. On paper, he is the faster of the pair and can even enjoy great support from Nathan Haas in case of a sprint. He must be the favourite in this duel and so the bet is interesting.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Ben Swift to beat Marko Kump - 1.66 at Bet365

Neither Ben Swift nor Marko Kump are pure sprinters, and a stage like this is tailor-made for them. Usually, they will not have problems surviving a climb like this, but there are indications that especially Kump has brought his climbing legs to Australia. While he has done well in the sprints, he has been among the first to get dropped on the climbs.

 

Swift is usually an excellent climber – remember that he was close to winning the mountainous Settimana Coppi e Bartali overall in 2015 - but he is not close to his top form either. However, his climbing skills are so good that he should be able to survive tomorrow's challenge. At the same time, his Sky team have completely dominated the sprints given Swift an excellent position in the pure mass sprints that usually do not suit him. Tomorrow's finale is also pretty technical, and that increases the importance of a good lead-out.

 

We doubt that Kump will survive the climb, and even if he does, Sky’s train should provide Swift with excellent opportunities in this duel.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Juan Jose Lobato to win the stage - 21.00 at Bet365

Read our analysis of the favourites.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Steele Von Hoff to win the stage - 29.00 at Bet365

Steele von Hoff is by no means the favourite for this stage but 29.00 is way too much. That makes this bet a good choice.

 

For a detailed view on his chances, read our analysis of the favourites.

 

You can place your bet here.