In addition to several one-day races in the weekend, this week offers two stage races, the Tour de Langkawi and the inaugural edition of the Tour La Provence. Every day we will offer you short previews of the stages at both the Malaysian and French race.

The course

The first stage is clearly the hardest and will bring the riders over 169km from Aubagne to Cassis on the Mediterranean coast. The first half of the race include the climbs of Cote des Thermes (7.5km, 3%), Cote du Pigenonaler (3.4km, 7%), Cote du Cengle (2km, 9%) and Cote de l’Espigoulier (12.3km, 6.5%) in terrain that is always up or down. The second half is a bit easier and includes a short flat section but the riders still have to tackle the Pas d’Oullier (6.5km, 4%) and Route des Cretes (3.6km, 8%). The latter comes just 32.6km from the finish. After the climb, the riders will descend to Cassis where they will do two laps of a difficult 7.8km circuit that includes the 900m, 15% climb of Avenue Alphonse Daudet which they will tackle a total of three times. The finish line comes 200m from the top.

The weather

Tuesday is forecated to be a sunny day with just a few clouds on the sky. The maximum temperature will be 17 degrees. However, it will be windy, with a relatively strong win from a northwesterly direction. This means that there will be crosswind for most of the day. In the finale, there will be a headwind as they head along the coast to the circuit where there will be all kind of wind directions.

The favourites

The stage has a total amount of climbing of 3041m and this will make it a hard test with very little flat roads. Furthermore, the strong winds and the many crosswind sections will make it a very nervous day and it’s definitely not impossible for a strong team to split the field before we even get to the circuit. Furthermore, there’s a relatively long crosswind section on the circuit so the peloton can split in the finale too.

The hilly terrain and windy conditions will be an invitation to attacks and we will probably get a very aggressive start. However, Ag2r want to win this race with an in-form Jan Bakelants and they will try to control things. They have a strong team and will probably try to bring things back together but it won’t be easy to control this kind of stressful stage. However, the most likely outcome is that the decision will be made in the finale. After all, this is the stage that will decide the GC and many teams want to keep their options open if they miss the break.

There will be numerous climbs late in the stage which makes it possible for riders to make successful solo moves on the tricky, narrow and twisting roads and there is not guarantee that a late group can’t make it to the finish. We will probably get an uphill sprint but look out for some of the strongest riders to make a move in the finale.

With the first stage set to decide the race, it shapes up to be a race for puncheurs. This plays into the hands on an in-form Jan Bakelants. The Belgian was clearly the strongest in La where he easily won the final stage which had a similar finale to the opening stage in Provence. In fact, he would definitely have won the race overall if he had not made a tactical mistake in the queen stage to call off the chase as he did not feel comfortable in his chances. Bakelants is very strong in an uphill sprint as he proved last year in the Tour stage to Rodez where he was third behind Van Avermaet and Sagan, and in La Méditeranéenne. We doubt that anyone will be able to match him here and he is supported by a strong team with the likes of Christophe Riblon and Jean-Christophe Peraud who can keep things together on the finishing circuit. Bakelants is clearly the favourite to win.

His biggest rival will probably be Francesco Gavazzi. The Italian has had a great start to the year with near-misses in Laigueglia and Etruschi. In those races he proved that he was one of the best climbers. He also did well in Tour du Haut Var even though he failed a bit in the sprints. He has won a much harder uphill sprint in the Tour of Beijing but if the road is really including 15%, it could be a bit too steep for him.

FDJ are without Arthur Vichot who would have been tailor-made for this race and instead will turn their attention to Anthony Roux. The Frenchman has been in good form recently and he has made uphill sprints a bit of a trademark. A few years ago he excelled in these finishes in the Vuelta a Burgos. He has not been at the same level since then but that’s mainly because he has been riding in service of his teammates. This is his chance to go for a personal result.

Etixx-QuickStep have numerous cards to play. Petr Vakoc, Pieter Serry and Maxime Bouet all showed great form in Tour du Haut Var where they were among the best. They are both strong in this kind of terrain and have a relatively fast finish. With more potential winners, they can go on the attack in the opening stage. Vakoc and Serry are the fastest and the Czech champion seems to be the strongest at the moment so he will be their best card.

We are curious to see how Julian Alaphilippe will do. The Frenchman will be making his season debut here after he suffered from mononucleosis in 2015. On paper, the race is tailor-made for him but he is unlikely to be in a condition that will allow him to chase results and he will probably ride in service of his teammates.

Cannondale are here without Tom-Jelte Slagter who would have been a great rider for this course. Instead, they will probably support Alex Howes who has proved that he can do well in uphill sprints. He was really strong in the USA Pro Challenge summit finishes a few years ago and he was strong at Worlds last year. However, his form is a bit uncertain as he was far off the pace in San Luis. The team can also play the card of Lawson Craddock who has a decent kick and Andrew Talansky who is not suited to the finale but can make a late attack.

Delio Fernandez was strong in San Luis and has won this kind of uphill sprints in the Volta a Portugal. However, he abandoned La Méditeranéenne for unknown reasons so it remains to be seen whether he will be competitive. Cofidis have Nicolas Edet who is usually strong at this time of the year and has a solid uphill sprint. Yoann Bagot is a back-up plan and is riding well but he lacks the explosiveness.

Roux will be the FDJ leader but the race could be a chance for neo-pro Odd Christian Eiking to play his own card. He is fast in a sprint and a great climber. The race also suits Pierrick Fedrigo but he has not been at his best in recent races. Romain Sicard will be one of the best climbers here but he is making his season debut and is not explosive enough to win.

Finally, Katusha deserves a mention. They have no real favourite and so will be riding aggressively. Simon Spilak is clearly one of the best riders in this race and is always flying at this time of the year. He has no chance in a sprint but if anyone can make a successful move on stage 1, it is probably the talented Slovenian. Sergeii Chernetskii and Angel Vicioso will be options for the sprints but none of them seem to be at their best.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Jan Bakelants

Other winner candidates: Francesco Gavazzi, Anthony Roux

Outsiders: Petr Vakoc, Alex Howes, Maxime Bouet

Jokers: Delio Fernandez, Nicolas Edet, Danilo Wyss, Odd Christian Eiking, Julian Alaphilippe, Lawson Craddock