While the classics season is in the final chapter, the preparation for the Giro d’Italia is in full swing. Hoping to use cycling to promote the home country, the new Tour of Croatia offers an alternative path to the Italian grand tour and in its second edition, the event is getting noticed as an option for some of the biggest teams who prefer to send some of their riders to Eastern Europe instead of heading to Turkey, Trentino or Romandie.

 

Cycling has always been a perfect means to promote a country as a tourist destination. No other sport can showcase main attractions and nature in the same way as the sport, especially if it comes with international TV coverage.

 

In recent years, more and more countries outside cycling’s traditional heartland have organized national tours that have been both about promotion and organizing a great sporting event. There are now several races in the Middle East, the Tour of Turkey has been revived and is now a major international event with international TV coverage and there are now several short stages races in Norway.

 

Last year Croatia joined the trend by organizing the first edition of the Tour of Croatia. Despite not attracting a single WorldTour team, the 2.1 event was broadcast live on Eurosport and the race turned out to be a huge success from both a commercial and sporting perspective. That has allowed the event to grow and it will be significantly bigger in 2015.

 

Held in the middle of April, the organizers have found a great spot on the calendar. There aren’t many races at this time of the year and it comes at the perfect time for riders that are preparing for the Giro d’Italia. That’s how the Tour of Turkey grew into a big event and now the Tour of Croatia is trying to repeat the successful Turkish formula.

 

In many regards, the race is similar to the Tour of Turkey. For many sprinters, the traditional preparation races Tour de Romandie and Giro del Trentino are bad options for the final preparations as they barely have any sprint stages. In recent years, the Tour of Turkey have successfully attracted some of the best sprinters in the world by offering a host of sprint stages and a few key climbing stages that decide the overall classification. As the big GC riders still prefer the mountainous races in Trentino and Romandie, the event has been a great chance for young climbers to show themselves.

 

It is exactly the same formula that has been used for the Tour of Croatia. In 2016, the race offers several sprint stages and a mountain stage and a team time trial which will decide the GC. Apparently, the big teams like the concept and what they saw in 2015 and this year the race will be attended by five WorldTour teams: Astana, Dimension Data, Tinkoff, IAM and Trek-Segafredo. None of them go to the race with their big climbers but Andrea Guardini, Mak Cavendish, Erik Baska, Matteo Pelucchi and Giacomo Nizzolo will make sure that the sprints are highly competitive. For the latter two, the race will be an important path towards the Giro. The same will be the case for Bardiani and Gazprom-Rusvelo who have both preferred the race over the Tour of Turkey.

 

In fact, the Turkish race is the big loser in the battle. After several years with great fields, the Tour of Turkey has seen most of the big teams turn their heels to their event. The Tour of Croatia may not offer the same guarantee off great weather but apparently the shorter travel and the earlier date makes it a better choice for many of the best sprinters.

 

The inaugural edition was won by Maciej Paterski who laid the foundations for victory by winning the queen stage and then went on to win the final stage in an uphill finish for puncheurs. He beat climbing talent Primoz Roglic by 1.01 while Sylwester Szmyd made it two CCC riders on the podium.

 

The course

Compared to last year, the race has been extended from five to six days and the organizers have designed a mixed course that offers a bit of everything. After a completely flat opener, the riders will head into hilly terrain on stage 2 which could be one for a reduced bunch sprint. The sprinters should get another chance in stage 3 before the GC will be decided in the key stages on Friday and Saturday. First up is a big mountaintop finish while the main novelty is an unusually long team time trial. On the final day, the riders will return to Zagreb for the puncheur finish that was used in last year’s race too.

 

 

Stage 1

One of the reasons for the sprinters to go to Croatia is the opening stage. At 235.1km, it is extremely long but while the distance will be a challenge, the terrain won’t do much damage. With just 120m of climbing, it is a completely flat northwesterly run along the Croatian-Hungarian border from Osijek to Varadzin and only the wind can prevent a big bunch sprint. It’s a technical finale though as there will be turns with 1km and 300m to go.

 

 

Stage 2

After the flat opener, the terrain gets significantly hillier on stage 2 which is another extremely long one. The 240km will bring the riders from NO Plitvicka jezera in the northwestern corner in a southeasterly run to the big coastal city of Split. The stage offer 2030m of climbing but most of it comes in the early part. After a lumpy start, there are categorized climbs at the 82.2km and 141km marks but the final 100km are mainly descending. There’s a major descent with around 30km to go which leads to the flat final 20km along the coast where another technical finale awaits. There are two roundabouts inside the final kilometre before the riders get to the final two bends with 300m to go.

 

It’s a very long stage with a solid amount of climbing but the climbs come way too early to make a difference. With so many top level sprinters at the start, the sprint teams should be able to control the stage and make sure that it all comes back together for another bunch sprint.

 

 

Stage 3

It is no wonder that the sprinters like the Tour of Croatia. Stage 3 should offer them a third consecutive chance to go for glory in a 189.8km run from Makarska just south of Split to Sibenik a bit further up the coast. Like in the previous stage, the riders will pass through the hilly terrain and with 2744m of climbing, it will be a harder stage than the first two days in the saddle.

 

The first 70km are almost all uphill, leading to the first KOM sprint at the 74.6km mark. From there, the terrain is mainly descending but there are two small climbs along the way. The first of those is categorized and comes with just 32.2km to go and then there’s another uncategorized ascent inside the final 30km. The final part of the stage is mainly flat as the riders will end the day by doing one lap of a 8.9km finishing circuit.

 

Like in the previous stage, the main climbing comes pretty early in the stage but this time there are a few small climbs in the finale too. This means that it will be a more selective stage but it should be possible for the big teams to keep it together for a reduced bunch sprint, especially as there are no big time gaps yet.

 

 

Stage 4

After three days for the sprinters, it will be time for the big GC stage on day 4 which will bring the riders over just 122.1km from Crikvenica on the Adriatic coast to the summit finish at Ucka which decided the race in 2015. With just 3000m of climbing over such a short distance, it is a brutal stage that will allow the real climbers to come to the fore and it will go a long way in determining the winner of the race.

 

The first part of the race is lumpy with three uncategorized climbs but the real climbing starts in Bakarac from where the riders will go up a 17km climb to an altitude of 970m. The top comes at the 582.km mark and then the riders will descend to the big city of Rijeka on the Adriatic coast. Flat costal roads will lead to the final 22km climb whose first part is not particularly challenging but in the final 8km, there will be 18% sections.

 

This is the big day for the climbers and their only chance to make a difference. The final climb is not very hard but last year’s race proved that it can create big time gaps. With a stronger field, the gaps are likely to be smaller in 2016 but it will still play a huge role in determining the winner of the race.

 

 

Stage 5

For most organizers, the natural choice of a timed event is an individual time trial but in Croatia, they have opted for a team time trial as their first ever time trial. What makes the stage very unusual is the distance. Nowadays, team time trials are usually no longer than 30km as organizers prefer them not to create too big gaps, but in Croatia, the collective test will be a massive 40.3km long. It will bring the riders from Umag on the Adriatic coast to Porec a little further down the coast, with a few brief trips into the hinterland where the terrain gets slightly hillier. However, there will only be 330m of climbing on a mostly flat stag that is likely to be very fast.

 

Time gaps in short team time trials are usually small but a 40.3km distance can do a lot of damage. There may have been a big summit finish on the previous stage which has of course ruled out the non-climbers in the battle for the overall victory but for the climbers, this stage is probably going to be more decisive in determining the overall winner of the second Tour of Croatia.

 

 

Stage 6

Last year Maciej Paterski sealed his overall win by coming out on top in the puncheur finish in Zagreb on the final day. This year the same finale will again be used as the riders will end their 177.5km from Sveti Martin na Muri in the far north of the country on the same lap in the capital. With just 570m of climbing, it’s a very easy stage with just two very small climbs at the 77.4km and 123.6km marks along the way. The challenge will be the two laps of the 5.4km finishing circuit which ends at the top of the short climb of Mesnicka Street where the puncheurs are expected to come to the fore.

 

The final climb is too hard for the pure sprinters and offers a perfect opportunity for the more versatile riders to come to the fore. With big time gaps having opened up, it won’t be impossible for a breakaway to make it but the most likely scenario is an uphill sprint. For the GC riders, it will be important to stay attentive as splits are bound to be created in the finale.

 

 

The favourites

Last year the Tour of Croatia was decided in the big mountaintop finish in Ucka while the rest of the stages didn’t play much of a role. This year the addition of the team time trial will change things significantly. While short team time trials rarely create much of a difference, the mammoth distance of more than 40km means that the time gaps will be huge, especially in a race where most of the teams come from the continental ranks and don’t have much experience in the discipline.

 

It’s a bit of a shame that the organizers have included such a long team time trial. The continental teams have some pretty strong climbers and as none of the WorldTour teams have brought their biggest stage race specialists to the race, they really had a chance to create a surprise. With the team time trial, they are effectively ruled out and it will now be a battle between the best climbers in the biggest teams.

 

Unless the wind creates some splits, the race will be decided in stages 4 and 5. The final stage can create some small gaps too but it will be nothing compared to the differences that will be made in the two key stages. The final climb of Ucka in stage 4 is not very tough so the team time trial is likely to be more important. The mountain stage means that only the climbers will have a chance to win but it will probably be the climber with the best team for the TTT that wins the race.

 

Astana and Dimension Data don’t have any real climbers here as Nathan Haas seems to be far from his best form and this means that it will come down to a battle between Trek, Tinkoff and IAM. Tinkoff are only seven riders here and don’t have the best team time trial team. As opposed to this, IAM and Trek are probably the favourites for the TTT and their climbers are likely to battle it out for the win.

 

On paper, Julian Arredondo is probably the best climber in the race. Health issues have prevented him for building on the huge potential he showed when he won a stage and the mountains jersey at the 2014 Giro. However, there have been small signs that he is back on track as he was a fine ninth in the queen stage at the Volta ao Algarve. However, he has been marred by bad luck as he crashed in the Tour Down Under and the Volra a Catalunya. He hasn’t raced since the latter event so his form is very uncertain and it may be an indication that he is still chasing his best condition that he is not at the start in the Ardennes. However, this race is a great chance for him to boost his confidence. Trek have a very strong team for the team time trial and if he can just do reasonably well in the mountains, Arredondo should win this race.

 

His biggest rival will probably be a teammate. Riccardo Zoidl has never lived up to the lofty expectations that were created when he won the 2013 Tour of Austria but this is a big chance for him to get back on track. He has shown flashes of his former climbing skills and in this race he should be one of the best in the queen stage. He is building form for the Giro so he should be riding well and with a strong team for the team time trial, he could very well win the race.

 

Jesper Hansen is a very talented climber who showed his full potential in last year’s Vuelta and by winning the 2015 Tour of Norway. However, he has had some health issues this year and he has not been at his best. At the same time, Tinkoff only have seven riders for the team time trial and none of them are real TTT specialists. However, the Russian team should still be among the best in the TTT and if he has found his best legs after his health problems, Hansen could dominate the queen stage.

 

Hansen’s teammate Sergio Paulinho is another candidate. The Portuguese is a solid climber who is mostly working as a domestique. Like Hansen, he has been ill and he was forced to abandon Pais Vasco. Hence, he is unlikely to be at his best level but as his team mentions him as GC candidate, he can’t be too bad. On paper, he should be one of the best climbers here.

 

IAM are mainly here to focus on the sprints but they have one climber in their team. Jonathan Fumeaux hasn’t achieved any major results but he is a decent climber. IAM are among the best in the TTTs and they have a really strong team for stage 5. If he can just do reasonably in the queen stage, a good team time trial may be enough to win the race overall.

 

CCC won the race in 2015 with Maciej Paterski but he will have little chance in this stronger field of climbers. Instead, the Polish team will probably focus on Tour of Austria winner Victor de la Parte. He has not been at his best level yet but if he can find the legs that he had last summer, he could win the queen stage in dominant fashion. CCC aren’t too bad in the TTT so it won’t be impossible for him to win.

 

Neo-pro Julien Bernard finished in the top 10 at last year’s USA Pro Challenge and could be a third option for Trek but he has not been in his best form in 2016. For Tinkoff, Jay McCarthy is a third card and he was initially aiming high for this race after his great ride at the Tour Down Under. However, he hasn’t been feeling good recently and the team doesn’t focus on him for the GC.

 

Jure Golcer will lead Adria Mobil for whom this race is a big highlight. He is a very good climber who has proved that he can match the WorldTour teams in these races. However, his form hasn’t been at its best in 2016 and his team will lose a lot of time in the team time trial.

 

ONE have a good team for the TTT but they miss the climber to finish it off. However, Karol Domagalski has been riding well recently and should be their leader here. Antonio Santoro is in the opposite position. He climbs really well and recently impressed at the Giro dell’Appennino but his team will lose a lot of time in the team time trial.

 

Finally, we will point to Matija Kvasina. Like Golcer, he has proved that he can take on the WorldTour teams in the mountains and this race is almost like a home race for him. However, the team time trial will be a challenge for his Synergy Baku team.

 

***** Julian Arredondo

**** Riccardo Zoidl, Jesper Hansen

*** Sergio Paulinho, Jonathan Fumeaux, Victor de la Parte

** Julien Bernard, Jay McCarthy, Jure Golcer, Karol Domagalski, Antonio Santoro, Matija Kvasina

* Maciej Paterski, Nathan Haas, Stephan Rabitsch, Scott Davies, Mark Christian, Owain Doull, Daniel Pearson, Lukasz Owsian, Domen Novak, Matej Mugerli, Davide Mucelli, Chris Butler, Enrico Barbin, James Oram, Richard Handley, Radoslab Rogina