The Tour de France has barely finished but for riders that weren’t active in France, it is already time to turn the focus to the final part of the year. The final week of July and first weeks of August are traditionally loaded with short stage races that both use the buzz from the Tour to attract plenty of spectators and serve as preparation for bigger objectives. One of them is the Tour of Denmark which has traditionally been a chance for the national riders to show themselves and young talents to prove their potential.

 

Denmark can hardly be regarded as one of cycling’s powerhouses but cycling is a hugely popular sport in the small country. During the 1990s, the hype reached new heights when Bjarne Riis and Rolf Sørensen established themselves as some of the best riders in the world and even though the country hasn’t reached the same lofty heights since then, the fact that one of the best teams in the world – the team which is now known as Tinkoff – was long based here, the sport and especially the Tour de France are dear to the hearts of many Danes who not follow cycling regularly.

 

As it is the case in many other European countries, the sport’s popularity has resulted in the creation of a national tour. The Tour of Denmark was first held in 1985 at a time where the sport was thriving in the country but after just four editions, it already disappeared from the calendar. However, Riis’ success at the Tour in the early 90s allowed the national federation to revive it in 1995 and  by winning that year’s edition, Riis made sure that the race immediately got hugely popular. He failed to repeat the win as the newly crowned Tour champion one year later but the race has been a key part of the summer schedule in the country since those years, always building on the excitement from the Tour.

 

While the race has been hugely popular from a spectator’s point of view, it has not always had the same sporting value. The level of the field has been mixed and it has mostly been dominated by the best national riders or young talents that have taken breakthrough wins here. During the heydays of the team, CSC dominated it with its many stars in the middle of the 00s but with that team losing its ties to the country, it has often failed to attract the biggest names. Hence, it has been dominated by local riders for whom it is a season highlight.

 

Nonetheless, it plays an important role on the calendar. At this time of the year, many riders are in search of races to build condition for the second part of the year. The month of July doesn’t offer many opportunities but the time of the end of the Tour is littered with short stage races that allow riders to test their form for the Vuelta or the upcoming classics. With a relatively flat course, it has often worked in nice synergy with the Eneco Tour and one-day races like Vattenfall Cyclassics and GP Plouay for which it is a good preparation race.

 

This year the Olympics adds extra complexity to the calendar and to avoid a conflict with the event in Rio, the race is held one week earlier than it has been in recent years, starting just three days after the end of the Tour. This has made it harder to attract riders from the Tour de France and the field is a bit less star-studded than it has been on most occasions.

 

Denmark may have fostered some great climbers but it is largely a flat country. Hence, it is no surprise that the race is a bit like a typical Belgian stage race. There are a number of opportunities for the sprinters and the key stage is a relatively short time trial. However, the traditional queen stage in Vejle on the third day includes the short 21% wall of Kiddesvej very close to the finish and so punchy climbing legs are needed to excel in this race too. Overall it suits a strong time triallist who can finish close to the best in lumpy terrain.

 

Local rider Christopher Juul-Jensen fits that characteristic and he won the race overall in 2015. Lars Boom won the first stage and was in prime position to win the race but he couldn’t follow the best in the queen stage. Juul could and with a solid time trial, he took his first professional stage race victory ahead of Lars Bak and Marco Marcato. With his Orica-BikeExchange team skipping the race, he won’t defend his title.

 

The course

The Tour of Denmark always follows a very traditional pattern. The first two stages are usually relatively flat but narrow roads and wind have the potential to split the field. The queen stage in Vejle comes on the third day and includes a few laps of a circuit with the 21% climb of Kiddesvej close to the finish. The Saturday has always had a split stage with a chance for the sprinters in the morning and the key time trial in the evening and then it has all come to a conclusion with a big bunch sprint in Copenhagen on the final day.

 

This year not much has changed when it comes to the overall layout of the course but there will be one stage less. The morning stage on Saturday will be skipped and instead the time trial has been made slightly longer. Overall we can expect a relatively traditional race but the longer time trial means that TT skills will be more important than usual.

 

Stage 1

As usual the sprinters are expected to come to the fore in the first stage which takes place in one of the flattest parts of Denmark. The riders will travel over 198.2km from Herning to Esbjerg and is almost completely flat. There’s a single climb on the menu but the main challenges are the narrow, twisting roads and the danger of crosswinds as some of the areas are very exposed. With 45km to go, the riders will pass a narrow dyke where the race split a few years ago and then they will hea to the finish where the stage ends with 3 laps of 3.7km circuit. It includes a small climb just before the finish.

 

At the moment, it doesn’t seem that it will be very windy so that should make things less stressful but showers are forecasted so it will be a nervous day. Some of the strong teams may try to split the field on the narrow roads on a day when it’s possible that some of the contenders will lose time. In the end, however, it should come down to a bunch sprint in Esbjerg.

 

Stage 2

The fast finishers will get another chance on the second stage but an uphill sprint could change the outcome compared to the first stage and suit the puncheurs better than the pure sprinters. The stage will bring the riders over 178km from the island of Rømø to Sønderborg close to the Danish-German border. Again there won’t be many challenges when it comes to the terrain as there will just be one small climb on the menu before the riders get to the finish. Here they will end the race by doing 3 laps of a 6.7km circuit where cobbles and an uphill finish will add to the complexity of the race.

 

Like in the previous stage, the main dangers are the wind and the narrow roads but again the forecast doesn’t predict very difficult conditions. It will still be a stressful stage and it will be very important to be attentive in the finale where there could be splits and attacks on the tricky circuit. In the end, it should be another bunch sprint but it will be more suited to punchier guys than real sprint which is reflected in Matti Breschel’s victory when the same finish was used in 2013.

 

Stage 3

After two days for the sprinters, it is time for the first key stage in the race. The riders will tackle 177.9km from Aabenraa to Vejle and the course is significantly harder than it has been in the first two stages. After  a relatively flat start with just two smaller climbs, the stage is likely to turn into an elimination race when the riders get to the climbs around Vejle. It kicks off when the riders hit the Østengaard climb and the very steep Chr. Winthersvej after around 130km of racing and then they will hit the finishing circuit where they will tackle the 21% climb of Kiddesvej for the first time. In the end, they will do three laps of the classics 5.6km circuit that includes the brutally steep wall just 700m from the slightly uphill finale.

 

The finale of this stage is the same every year and so the riders know what to expect. The peloton usually splits up even before we get to the circuit where there are usually several attacks. In the past, riders have managed to ride away for a solo win even on some of the earlier laps but usually a small group decides the race on Kiddesvej for the final time. The time gaps between the best riders are usually small but in a race that is always decided by seconds, all gains in this stage can be crucial for the outcome.

 

Stage 4

The Vejle stage is important as you can lose everything there but the race is usually won in Saturday’s time trial. This year the riders will tackle 19.6km around the city of Nyborg. The roads are narrow and winding but there aren’t many challenges when it comes to the terrain. The course is almost completely flat.

 

This is the key stage of the race and as this year’s time trial is longer than usual, it will be even more important than it has traditionally been. The flat terrains means that it’s a stage for the true powerhouses and the biggest specialists.

 

Stage 5

Like most other national tours, the race ends with a stage for the sprinters and a grand finale in the capital. On the final day, the riders will tackle 183km from Karrebæksminde to Frederiksberg in the centre of Copenhagen and it is a classical sprint stage. There’s an early climb but otherwise the terrain is flat and it all ends with 10 laps of a 6.7km circuit in the capital. There is a very small climb that is used for the KOM competition on three occasions but it should do nothing to trouble the sprinters who are expected to battle it out on the final day.

 

Traditionally, this has been a very fast stage where bonus seconds and intermediate sprints have often come into play. However, it is very hard to prevent a final bunch sprint, with the 2014 edition being the rare exception. Unless something very unusual happens, the fast finishers should get a chance to flex their muscles in a final battle on the streets in Copenhagen.

 

The favourites

The 2016 edition of the Tour of Denmark follows a very traditional pattern and so we know what to expect. As usual, the key stages will be the Vejle stage and the time trial. The biggest gains can be made in the TT which is where the race will be won and so the winner will definitely be an excellent time triallist. However, you also need to stay close to the best on the hills in Vejle which is where the big engines can lose everything.

 

This year the time trial is longer and so the time triallists can allow themselves to lose a bit more in the queen stage. Furthermore, the race is usually decided by seconds and so bonus seconds could come into play. Hence, a fast sprint is never a disadvantage in this race. The first two stages can be dangerous but as it seems that there won’t be much wind, they are unlikely to play a big role. On the other hand, history shows that late attacks often pay off in Denmark like it happened when Lars Boom won the first stage 12 months ago. Hence, aggressive riding and an offensive approach often pay off in the early part of the race. Furthermore, a strong team will be important if the race splits on the narrow roads.

 

There’s only one former winner at the start. Michael Valgren won the race in 2014 but back then it was more due to team tactics than a case of being the strongest rider. This year Valgren is back as the leader of the Tinkoff team and this year he finds himself in a much better position than he did two years ago. He has matured a lot during the last two years and he is a lot stronger than he was back then.

 

Valgren is very strong in hilly terrain. He was second at the Amstel Gold Race and so is made for the stage in Vejle where he can also benefit from his fast sprint. His time trialling hasn’t always been great but this year he has really stepped up his level. He finished second at the National Championships where he beat most of his key rivals for this race.

 

The big question mark is his freshness. He is the only rider who comes to the race just after the doing the Tour. That can either be a blessing or a huge disadvantage but it seems that he came out of the race very well. He finished 44th in the final mountain stage and was 30th in the uphill time trial which indicates that his form is excellent. On paper, there are better time triallists in the race but Valgren won’t be far off the mark. If he can win in Vejle and pick up a few bonus seconds along the way, he could very well win the race again. Valgren is our favourite.

 

Søren Kragh Andersen goes into the race as part of the national team. One year at the WorldTour level has made him stronger than he was last year where he finished third in the time trial. He is a very good time triallist on relatively short courses, proving his huge class with a fourth place in the TT in California. If he can repeat that performance, it is hard to believe that anyone will beat him but he has been a bit inconsistent in his time trialling. The Vejle stage suits him well as he is strong on short climbs and he is very fast in a sprint as he can even mix it up in the bunch kicks. His form is a bit of an unknown but if he is close to his best, it won’t be easy to beat him.

 

On paper, Jos van Emden is the best time triallist in this race but everything depends on how he can do in the Vejle stage. He definitely won’t win that stage and he will lose time to the best. However, he is not that bad on this kind of short climbs and if he can stay with the best until the final lap, he will remain within shooting distance for the time trial. If he does one of his best TTs on a course that suits him well, the overall victory is within reach.

 

Last year U23 world champion Mads Würtz Schmidt surprised most by winning the time trial and with a 16th place in the Vejle stage, he finished 7th overall. This year he is aiming for an even better result and he should be close to his best form as this is a big goal for him. He has the team built fully around him and he should be one of the best in the TT. The main challenge for him will be whether he is now strong enough to follow the best in the queen stage.

 

If Valgren fails, Manuele Boaro will be ready to take over. The Italian led the race until the final stage two years ago but due to team tactics he saw Valgren claim victory. This year he hopes for more and he is a very strong candidate. He has been climbing excellent for the last two years and he is one of the favourites for the Vejle stage which he won two years ago. Unfortunately, he is no longer as strong in a short, flat time trial as he once was and if he doesn’t show improvement, it may not be enough to win. Furthermore, his form is uncertain.

 

On paper, this race suits Lars Boom down to the ground but his form is a bit of a question mark. One year ago he won the first stage but he wasn’t strong enough to follow the best in Vejle. This year he hasn’t done the Tour so no one knows how he is going but he is unlikely to be at his very best. Furthermore, he hasn’t been time trialling very well and in general he is no longer as strong in the race against the clock as he once was. However, he definitely has the skills to win as he is strong on short climbs, fast in a sprint and a good time triallist.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have several cards to play. Martijn Keizer has really stepped up his TT level. This year he was 10th in the Romandie prologue, 14th in the Giro opener and 16th in the long Giro TT. He is better over shorter distances but he should still be one of the best in stage 4. Furthermore, he is no bad climber and he should definitely be close to the best in Vejle. Nobody knows much about his form but if he can do one of his best TTs, he can win the race.

 

Mike Teunissen is the third LottoNL card. The youngster was a great time triallist as a U23 rider but he has not been as strong at the elite level. On the other hand, he is fast in a sprint and well-suited to the queen stage.

 

Daniele Bennati is the third option for Tinkoff. The Italian has just come back after a long break for injury but he was already strong in Poland where he survived some tough climbs and was in the top 10 in the final time trial. He is good in short flat TTs and this one suits him pretty well. The main challenge for him is whether he is already good enough to limit his losses in the queen stage and it is questionable whether he will be allowed to take his own chances.

 

On paper, it’s a great race for the talented Silvio Herklotz but he has had a very bad first pro season and hasn’t shown anything yet. However, he hasn’t raced for a while so if he is back on form, he should be able to do well here as he can both climb and time trial. Dmitry Gruzdev also occasionally does some excellent TTs but he is probably not climbing well enough to keep up with the best.

 

Finally, we will point to Mads Pedersen. The Dane is a huge talent who really proved his potential in similar terrain at the Three Days of De Panne. He is not time trialling well enough to win the race but with his fast sprint, he can mix it up in every road stage and he is one of the favourites for the queen stage. Bonus seconds can allow him to finish high overall.

 

***** Michael Valgren

**** Søren Kragh Andersen, Jos van Emden

*** Mads Würtz Schmidt, Manuele Boaro, Lars Boom, Martijn Keizer

** Mike Teunissen, Daniele Bennati, Silvio Herklotz, Dmitriy Gruzdev, Mads Pedersen

* Gijs Van Hoecke, Berden De Vries, Rasmus Guldhammer, Marcin Bialoblocki, Jose Mendes, Bram Tankink, Scott Thwaites, Alex Kirsch, Marco Marcato