Norway may have had strong riders in the past but only in recent years has the country turned into a major cycling country. While the number of top professionals is still relatively small, the Scandinavian country has some of the biggest names in the sport and with Thor Hushovd as the leading figure, this has inspired a boom in the interest. Having not had a major bike race in the past, the country now has no less than three big stage race that attract some of the best riders in the world, and this week it all starts with the national tour, the Tour of Norway, which was the first big event to move into top part of the UCI hierarchy.

 

Knut Knudsen, Dag Otto Lauritzen, Dag Erik Pedersen… Norway has never been one of cycling’s big powerhouses but they have had great riders in the past. With six stage wins, Knudsen paved the way for his compatriots by winning six stages in the Giro d’Italia and winning Tirreno-Adriatico and Lauritzen went on to become the first Norwegian stage winner in the Tour de France. Their achievements created some interest for the sport but in a country that has always been one of the best in winter sports, it was hard for cycling to get much attention.

 

That changed in the 2000s. Thor Hushovd’s great success at the Tour de France, the classics and the World Championships created a major cycling boom that suddenly prompted many kids to turn their focus to cycling. The result is evident. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Alexander Kristoff and Lars Petter Nordhaug are now leading figures on the international scene, the country fosters great talents in their many continental teams and the sport gets plenty of interest from the national media that have a huge coverage of the major cycling events.

 

The boom has also completely changed the racing scene. In the past, there have been a few smaller UCI events, most notably the Ringerike Grand Prix, but with the big interest, the racing calendar has probably seen the biggest growth in any country. In just a few years, organizers have managed to attract sponsorship for three major stage races with attendance from WorldTour teams. The Tour of Norway paved the way in 2011 and since then, both the Tour des Fjords and the Arctic Race of Norway which is even organized in a partnership with ASO, have followed suit. All three races are broadcast on national television, meaning that cycling is now one of the major sports in the far north and the country is one of cycling’s powerhouses.

 

With the big interest for the sport, it was always obvious to try to create a major national tour and in 2011, the first edition of the Tour of Norway was held. It was regarded as a successor to the Ringerike GP which was reduced to a one-day race and it immediately got a 2.1 status in the UCI hierarchy and attracted WorldTour teams. After three successful editions, it was even elevated to 2.HC status and now is an annual highlight on the international calendar where it offers a real cycling party in one of the most cycling-mad countries.

 

Held at the same time as the Giro d’Italia, it is hard for the race to compete with the Italian grand tours for the attendance from the major stars but it offers a good chance for Tour de France riders to get back into competition after their mid-season break. With the best riders rarely in their best condition, it has been dominated by local riders though and Edvald Boasson Hagen has won the race twice and Alexander Kristoff has taken numerous stage wins. However, Wilco Kelderman, Maciej Paterski and Jesper Hansen have made sure that three editions have had international winners and even though the local riders will always play a prominent role, it is definitely not a national affair, especially due to the important UCI points that are on offer for the pro continental teams.

 

That is also reflected in the start list which seems to be a bit weaker than it has been recently. This year there will only be three WorldTour teams in attendance. However, the number of pro continental teams is huge and for those teams, the race is a big goal, meaning that the race is unlikely to be much less competitive than it was last year.

 

The Norwegian terrain is lumpy and offers the perfect scene for a solid stage race. There are always a few opportunities for the sprinters but the climbing has gradually become harder and harder. While the first editions suited all-rounders, the climbers now have the chance to go for a stage race win in a race where there is no time trial. This was the case last year when Jesper Hansen rode to a breakthrough win by beating local hero Boasson Hagen and another climber, David Lopez. Hansen and Tinkoff won’t be back to defend their title and as Lopez is currently busy at the Giro d’Italia, only Boasson Hagen will be back for the 2016 edition of the race.

 

The course

Since its inception, the Tour of Norway has varied the course quite a bit. There have always been a few stages for the sprinters, often with an uphill finish suited to stronger guys, and a few hilly stages to decide the GC. There have been uphill finishes in the past but they have always been more suited to puncheurs than pure climbers. The race has also had some long climbs as the race included a tough finale in Lillehammer in 2013 and 2014 and a few finish in Rjukan in 2015. However, those climbs have always been followed by a downhill run to the finish, meaning that the pure climbers have been at a disadvantage compared to powerful puncheurs like Edvald Boasson Hagen.

 

Last year the organizers decided the hardest course ever and apparently they liked the format. In any case, they have decided to repeat the formula in 2016 as only the order of the stages has been changed. This means that the stage will have two stages for the sprinters, with the first stage being for the pure fastmen and the final stage having an uphill finish for the power guys. The GC will be decided in stages 2, 3 and 4 where the climbers will come to the fore. Stage 2 will see the return to the big climb in Rjukan that leads to a downhill finish before the puncheurs will get their chance in the tough uphill finish in Geilo on stage 3. Those riders will again come to the fore in stage 4 which is the traditional stage to the Eggemoen airport in Hønefoss where a short, steep climb leads to a short flat run-in to the line.

 

 

Stage 1:

The pure sprinters will have their only chance in stage 1 which brings the riders over 172.4km from Drammen to Langesund. There are two small category 3 climbs on the menu but the course is almost entirely flat. It all leads to a technically non-complicated finish where the riders will follow a long, winding, slightly descending road for the final 3km.

 

The final part of the stage takes place along the coast and so everybody has to stay attentive as there is always a risk that the crosswind will come into play. However, the stage should come down to a big battle between the fastest sprinters.

 

 

Stage 2:

Last year the race was decided when Jesper Hansen rode to a solo win in the new finale in Rjukan after having dropped everybody on the tough Flisetjønsskaret climb and held them off on the downhill run to the finish. That finish is back in 2016 on stage 2 when the riders will tackle 211.2km from Kragerø to Rjukan. It’s a mostly flat stage with just a single category 2 climb (3.1km, 6.8%) after the midpoint but the stage has a nasty sting in its tail. Flisetjønsskaret is an 11.3km category 1 climb that averages 7% and summits just 19.2km from the finish. From there it is a downhill run to the final 3km which are slightly uphill.

 

This is the big day for the climbers. The next two stages offer more opportunities but are more suited to puncheurs. This is where the pure climbers can make a difference which is what Jesper Hansen managed to do last year. However, the long descent means that there is time for a regrouping to take place and if there’s a headwind, it will be even harder to stay away. Local hero Edvald Boasson Hagen hopes to limit his losses and then get back in contention in the final part.

 

 

Stage 3:

The second important day for the GC comes at the midpoint when the riders will return to the punchy climb to the finish in Geilo. The 168.3km course starts in Rjukan and ends in Geilo after a tough day in the saddle. The category 1 Imingfjell (24km, 4.3%) features on in the first half and then there’s a category 2 climb (4.7km, 8.5%) just after the midpoint. From there it is a flat run to Geilo where the stage finishes at the top of a 2.3km category 2 climb that averages 7.9%.

 

This finish made its debut in 2015 when Amets Txurruka and David Lopez battled it out for the win, with the Caja Rural rider dropping his rival in the finale to take the victory and Jesper Hansen finishing fourth at 5 seconds to defend his overall lead. It’s the only uphill finish in the race and so is a great chance for the climbers to gain more time but due to the short nature of the climb, it is more suited to the puncheurs than the pure climbers.

 

 

Stage 4:

Apart from the inaugural edition, the Tour of Norway has always had a stage to the Eggemoen Airport in Hønefoss which offers a very spectacular finale that is suited to strong sprinters and puncheurs. This year it comes a bit earlier than usual as it already features in stage 4 where the riders will travel 173.2km from Flå to Hønefoss. It’s an almost completely flat course that has a nasty sting in its tail on the 11.8km finishing circuit that will be covered thrice. It is mostly flat but includes a 1.6km climb that averages 5.4% and summits just 2.7km from the finish. From the top, it is a flat and exposed run to the line

 

This stage will be known by most of the riders and it can suit both puncheurs and strong sprinters. In 2012, Russell Downing won a reduced sprint and it was Alexander Kristoff who achieved the same feat in both 2013 and 2014. He was again the fastest from the small bunch in 2015 but here a late attack saw Andreas Vangstad and Fredrik Galta ride away with the first two places. This year it could very well be a day for a breakaway or another reduced sprint but we can also expect attacks from the GC riders on the final circuit as it is the final chance for them to change things.

 

 

Stage 5:

For once, the Hønefoss stage won’t end the race and instead the city of Sarpsborg will host the finish. The final stage will bring the riders over 163.4km from Drøbak to Sarpsborg along mostly flat roads that only includes an early category 3 climb. The stage ends with two laps of a 13.5km finishing circuit that has a small category 3 climb (1km, 5.7%) just 7.3km from the line. From there, it is a downhill run to the final 800m which are uphill at 3.5-4%.

 

For the GC riders, this is a stage to stay safe but there is always a risk of wind in Norway so they have to be attentive. At the same time, it is one of only two chances for the sprinters but you need to be a really strong guy to conquer the uphill finale in Sarpsborg. It is definitely no coincidence that Alexander Kristoff has been the fastest three years in a row even though he failed to take the win two years ago when the peloton failed to catch Marc De Maar and Maciej Paterski who sprinted for the win.

 

 

The favourites

As said, the 2016 edition of the race is very similar to last year’s race when it comes to the design of the course and so we can learn quite a bit about what to expect from the 2015 event. Only the finale of the sprint stage has changed slightly so again we can expect the race to be decided by combination of four factors: the queen stage on the second day, the puncheur finish on stage 3, bonus seconds gathered in all five stages and potential splits in the crosswinds.

 

This year the race is likely to be very rainy in the final three stages but there won’t be much wind. There will be a bit of crosswind in the coastal section in the finale of stage 2 but we doubt that it will make much of a difference. Hence, it will mainly be a battle between the best climbers and the stronger guys who can limit their losses on the climbs and pick up lots of bonus seconds.

 

That’s how it panned out last year. Jesper Hansen managed to gain enough time on the climbs to win the race with a solid 47-second margin over Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian finished second at 38 seconds in the queen stage and conceded another 9 seconds in Geilo and as he had a hard time competing with the likes of Alexander Kristoff and Caleb Ewan, the battle for bonus seconds ended as a draw between Boasson Hagen and Hansen.

 

This year we again expect a duel between Boasson Hagen and a climber. We will be surprised if the race is not won by either the Norwegian or Pello Bilbao. This year the climbing field is not very deep and Boasson Hagen should be able to limit his losses to most. Bilbao is the best climber in the race and is the most likely rider to gain enough time on the double winner of the race.

 

However, we will put Boasson Hagen on top of our list of favourites. Compared to last year, he seems to be a lot stronger. He has had his best season for years and was absolutely flying right from the start of the year when he dominated the Tour of Qatar before losing it all due to a double puncture. A bout of illness partly destroyed his classics campaign but he still rode a very solid Paris-Roubaix.

 

It all started at last year’s Tour of Britain where Boasson Hagen was suddenly back to his best and it continued when he matched Greg Van Avermaet in the finale of the World Championships. Boasson Hagen is getting closer to the rider he once was and so we can expect him to be riding even better in Norway than he did last year.

 

Boasson Hagen is unlikely to follow Bilbao on the climb in stage 2 but last year he really powered down the descent and reduced his losses significantly. This year he will probably lose less time and he will be much stronger than Bilbao in the power section. As there will also be a headwind in the final part, he has an even bigger advantage and it won’t be impossible for him to even win the queen stage. The stage to Geilo is probably a bit too hard for him but as he is getting stronger, it’s not impossible that he will also be able to win here. In any case, he should be able to limit his losses to just a few seconds. Finally, there aren’t any big-name sprinters in the race so he won’t have to contend with the likes of Kristoff and Ewan in stages 1, 4 and 5. This means that he can pick up more bonus seconds than he did last year. Fewer sprinters and a stronger Boasson Hagen mean that the Norwegian is our favourite.

 

Pello Bilbao will be his big rival. The Spaniard already proved his class last year when he rode to victory in the punchy uphill finish in Selcuk at the Tour of Turkey. This year he has been absolutely flying, going head to head with Valverde in Castilla y Leon and getting very close to victory in Turkey. There is little doubt that he would have won that race if he hadn’t fallen ill on the eve of the queen stage.

 

Bilbao hasn’t raced since the Turkish race so it remains to be seen whether he has recovered enough for this race. However, if he is back in form, he could very well repeat Hansen’s performance in the queen stage. He is the obvious favourite for the Geilo stage whose puncheur finish suits his explosive skills perfectly and as he is very fast, he may even score bonus seconds in stages 4 and 5. If he can get a buffer over Boasson Hagen in the queen stage, he could very well win this race.

 

The biggest threat to Bilbao and Boasson Hagen is probably Pieter Weening. The Dutchman is an excellent climber as he proved in his marvelous 2013 season when he won the Tour de Pologne. Since then he has not been at the same level and he has a very bad 2015 season. However, he is now back on track and this year he has been riding a lot better, most notably in the Volta a Catalunya where he got very close to victory in the queen stage. He rode solidly in the classics too.

 

However, his form is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced since he crashed out of the Tour de Yorkshire. Furthermore, he is not an explosive climber so he has to make all the difference in the queen stage. That won’t be impossible though. If he has the legs, he had earlier in the spring, he could very well set himself up for overall victory by winning in Rjukan.

 

Odd Christian Eiking is one of the biggest Norwegian talents. This year he has turned professional at FDJ and he has mostly been working as a domestique. However, he has shown flashes of his talent, most notably at the Classic du Sud-Ardeche and in this race he aims to grab a rare personal chance as he lines up as the leader of the Norwegian national team. He is a great climber with a decent punch, meaning that he has the skills to do well here. Las year he won the youth classification and with a few months of WorldTour racing under his belt, we expect him to be a lot stronger in 2016.

 

Lotto Soudal go into the race with Sander Armee as their leader. The Belgian rarely gets a chance to ride for himself but this is his big opportunity. The hilly course suits him well and he showed great form in the Tour de Romandie where he won the mountains classification. It remains to be seen whether he can still ride for himself like he did at Topsport Vlaanderen but on paper he is one of the best climbers here.

 

Among the domestique riders, Andreas Vangstad has the best chance. The Norwegian rode a splendid race in 2015 as he won the final stage and finished fifth overall. As he won the Sundvolden GP this month he seems to again have timed his form to perfection. Last year he was one of the best in the queen stage and this year we can expect him to be even stronger.

 

Caja Rural have a second card to play. Fabricio Ferrari is riding better than ever and he has many of the same characteristics as his leader Bilbao. He is not climbing as well as his Spanish teammate but he is a solid puncheur who should do well in this terrain. He showed great climbing form in Asturias where he was 10th overall and 9th in the queen stage. Teaming up with Bilbao, he will have tactical options that could very well give him the victory.

 

Roompot also have more cards to play. Huub Duijn is a solid and very consistent climber. He should be among the best in the queen stage but he is not very explosive. As opposed to this, Maurits Lammertink is a great puncheur who should be among the best in Geilo and should be able to score bonus seconds in stages 4 and 5. This year he has been absolutely flying and he was one of the best riders in Amstel Gold Race and Brabantse Pijl. However, the climb in the queen stage may be a bit too long for him.

 

Sven Erik Bystrøm will share the leadership at the national team with Eiking. The former U23 world champion will be keen to improve of his 10th place from two years ago and will be motivated on home soil. He is a solid puncheur and so well-suited to most of the stages but the climb in the queen stage is probably a bit too long. Furthermore, he crashed out of the Tour de Yorkshire so his form is a bit uncertain.

 

Finally, Natnael Berhane and Cameron Meyer deserve a mention. Both are here to support Boasson Hagen so they are unlikely to get any personal chance. However, if the local hero is unable to keep up with the best in the queen stage, they may be given some freedom. If they have their best climbing legs, they should be able to do well here.

 

***** Edvald Boasson Hagen

**** Pello Bilbao, Pieter Weening

*** Odd Christian Eiking, Sander Armee, Andreas Vangstad, Fabricio Ferrari

** Huub Duijn, Sven Erik Bystrøm, Maurits Lammertink, Tomasz Marczynski, Natnael Berhane, Cameron Meyer

* Julien El Fares, Victor Campenaerts, Bjørn Tore Hoem, Linus Gerdemann, Jose Mendes, Cesare Benedetti, Eliot Lietaer, Thomas Sprengers, Fredrik Galta, Antwan Tolhoek, Richard Handley, James Oram, Lennard Kämna, Marco Minnaard, Anders Skaarseth