This week is an extremely busy affair in professional cycling as no less than four stage races will take place in Oman, France, Spain and Portugal respectively. Instead of doing our usual extensive stage preview, we will provide a short preview of the stages each day.

 

Tour of Oman, stage 1:

The course:

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters but for 2016, the organizers have changed the script. The stage is very similar to the one that opened last year’s race and has an almost identical profile. Instead, the puncheurs and classics riders will get a chance to go for the leader’s jersey on the opening day as the riders will face the well-known finale in Al Bustan that has produced some exciting racing in the three most recent editions of the race.

 

At 145.5km, the stage is a relatively short one which brings the riders from the Oman Exhibition Centre to Al Bustan. The first part of the stage isn’t too exciting though as the riders will head from the start of the outskirts of the capital of Muscat into the desert where they will head along flat or slightly ascending roads in a sinuous system that will see them travel back and forth along the same road and do two U-turns.  Then they will head back towards the capital while contesting the first intermediate sprint at the 75km mark.

 

Having returned to Muscat, the riders will follow flat roads on the outskirts of the city and hit the course that was used for the second stage of last year’s race. This is where the exciting part starts as the riders will head straight through the city to make a small visit to the climbs that are located on the eastern outskirts of the city before they turn around to head back to the finish in Al Bustan just east of the capital

 

The first challenge comes at the 122.5km mark where the riders will climb the short, steep 800m climb of Al Hamriya whose average gradient of 9.8% will tire out the riders legs. From there it is a gradual downhill down towards the sea where the final intermediate sprint is located with 9.5km to go. Having turned around to head back towards the city centre, it is time for the day's major challenge, the 1.4km climb of Al Jissah that has an average gradient of 9% and whose top is located just 5.5km from the finish. It is followed by a fast descent that continues all the way to the 1.5km to go mark where the road flattens. 900km from the finish, the riders hit the coastal road when they go left in a roundabout. In 2014 the riders went over a small climb but last year and in 2016 the stage has been shortened by about 1km, meaning that the finish line now comes at the bottom of that small ascent.

 

In 2013, the stage saw Team Sky whittle down the peloton on the first of the climbs in the finale, providing a launch pad for Rinaldo Nocentini and Alberto Contador who attacked on the second one. The break didn't have any success but the fierce pace whittled down the peloton to just around 50 riders who were set to contest the win in a sprint. With limited domestique resources, however, no one took control, leading to an attack from Martin Elmiger, Vincenzo Nibali, and Tony Gallopin on the final small rise inside the final 2km. Peter Sagan bridged across and instead of waiting for the final sprint, he launched an immediate attack to continue past his rivals, taking a beautiful solo win and the leader's jersey in the process.

 

In 2014 the peloton was again whittled down on the two climbs but as the riders faced a strong headwind on the final climb, some of the sprinters survived the climb. Meanwhile, Chris Froome, Peter Sagan, Zdenek Stybar and Fabian Cancellara launched a strong attack but they were caught inside the final kilometre. Hence, it came down to a sprint from a reduced peloton where André Greipel made use of his fast legs to beat Sagan and Nacer Bouhanni.

 

Last year some of the GC riders attacked on the final climb and the aggression created a 19-rider front group that sprinted for the win. Sagan was the big favourite but he had to settle for fifth as Fabian Cancellara edged out Alejandro Valverde and Greg Van Avermaet, with the Slovakian having to settle for fifth.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Tuesday will be a sunny day even though there may be a few clouds in the afternoon. The maximum temperature will be a pleasant 26 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind for most of the days, including on the first climb. There will be a cross-tailwind on the final climb and the descent. Then there will be a short cross-headwind section and then a cross-tailwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites:

As this stage has featured in past editions of the race, many riders know the finale and they know what to expect. The stage has had very different outcomes in the past which proves that it can be an unpredictable affair. The stage has been won by classics riders like Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan and the race has been so hard that climbers like Rui Costa and Thibaut Pinot have been dropped. However, the stage has also been won by a big guy like André Greipel which means that there are several potential outcomes.

 

Much depends on the wind. When Greipel won, he openly admitted that it was only possible because a strong headwind had made the final climb less selective. Tomorrow it will be a tailwind on the climb and this means that there is very little chance that the sprinters will survive. Furthermore, the finish line now comes closer to the top of the climb and there is only 1km of flat road after the descent. This makes it much less likely that he will have a regrouping.

 

There is no overall leader in the race and this can often lead to tricky situations in stage races, especially if there I no obvious favourite for the opening stage. However, Greg Van Avermaet and Edvald Boasson Hagen both want to win this one and so we expect BMC and Dimension Data to control the early break. Hence, it should all come down to a battle on the final two climbs.

 

The first climb offers a chance to try to make the race hard and we may even see a few attacks here. BMC want the race to be tough but they don’t really have the team to do so as they are mainly here with classics riders. Dimension Data will probably not try to make the race hard so we don’t expect it to be very fast on the first climb which be made slower by the headwind.

 

It is all likely to come down to the final climb where we will definitely see attacks – both from GC and classics riders. It can be a bit of a shock to the system to race in this heat and the final climb is pretty selective so we may see a few GC riders lose ground already on the opening day as it has happened to Costa and Pinot in the past. We will probably see a handful of riders crest the summit together and if they can work well together, they may stay away to the finish or one of the riders can get clear for a solo win. However, the most likely scenario is that we will have a regrouping and a sprint from a small group like in 2015 when 19 riders reached the finish together.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen can win the stage from both scenarios. The Norwegian is in outstanding condition as he proved with his dominant ride in the Tour of Qatar time trial. It comes on the back of his great end to 2015 when he was one of the best at the Worlds and was second in a much harder stage at the Tour of Britain. He is a relatively big guy but when his condition is good, he is very hard to drop on this kind of climb. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint and he will probably be the fastest in a sprint from a small group. He may also be strong enough to be with the best if just a handful of riders escape and so he is our favourite to win.

 

Greg Van Avermaet has been close to victory in this stage in the past and now he finally wants to win it. It’s his best chance to win a stage in the entire race and it suits him very well. He is one of the best on a short, steep climb like this so he won’t get dropped, and he is pretty fast in a sprint. However, he is not as fast as Boasson Hagen so he probably needs to get rid of the big Norwegian. That’s not impossible as he is a slightly better climber and if a handful of riders make it to the top together, he could very well be the fastest.

 

Gianni Meersman is another fast rider who can survive this kind of climb. However, he has not shown his best condition yet so we expect it to be too hard for him. On the other hand, he has proved that he can do very well on this kind of short climb and as his condition is improving, he can definitely survive for a group sprint. If he is there, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Tom Dumoulin is mainly here for stages and this is one of his best options. He has not raced yet but everybody knows that he can get into excellent condition by training. Reports are that he is great form and he will be one of the strongest on a short climb like this. If the race becomes selective, he will be one of the fastest and he can also make a solo move in the finale. If he goes into TT mode, no one is going to bring him back.

 

Marco Marcato is hugely consistent but he rarely wins anything. This stage is a great opportunity for him though as he can handle this kind of short climb and is fast in a sprint. He won’t be up there with the very best on the climb but if a regrouping takes place, he should survive. He has won bunch sprints in the past and even though he is not as fast as he once was, he will be in with a shot.

 

Simone Ponzi is very similar to Marcato and probably even better on this kind of climb and even faster in a sprint. On paper, this stage suits him down to the ground but he didn’t show very good form in the Dubai Tour. If he has not improved he won’t win this stage but he has just had a week of hard racing in Qatar. This may have provided him with the platform to do well here.

 

If the stage is too hard for Meersman, Etixx-QuickStep have two cards to play. Daniel Martin and Gianluca Brambilla are strong on a short climb like this and they are both fast in a sprint. They won’t win from a bigger group but if the race is selective, they could be up there. Martin has shown reasonable condition and Brambilla has been flying.

 

Marco Canola will be an outsider if it comes down to a bigger group. The Italian climbs pretty well and he can mix it up even in big bunch sprints. He didn’t climb very well in San Luis though but after Qatar he is likely to have improved.

 

Søren Kragh Andersen had an excellent debut in Qatar where he rode to sixth overall. This is the kind of stage that suits him really well. He can handle short, steep climbs and he is pretty fast in a sprint. The level will probably be too high for him if it’s just a small group but he could be there if the race is more selective.

 

Vincenzo Nibali looms as a dark horse. Of course he won’t win in a sprint but he should be among the best on the climb. If he is up there, he is a master in picking the right moment to attack and we could see a repeat of his Sheffield show at the 2014 Tour de France.

 

For other outsiders, look to Rui Costa, Rasmus Guldhammer and Sven Erik Bystrøm.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Edvald Boasson Hagen

Other winner candidates: Greg Van Avermaet, Gianni Meersman

Outsiders: Tom Dumoulin, Marco Marcato, Simone Ponzi,

Jokers: Gianluca Brambilla, Daniel Martin, Marco Canola, Søren Kragh Andersen, Vincenzo Nibali