On the day where the classics season comes to an end, it is already time to turn the attention to the next phase of the international cycling calendar: the upcoming grand tours. The main contenders are busy finalizing their preparations for the Giro d'Italia and do so by splitting into two camps. While the GC contenders head to the climbs in Trentino and Romandie, some of the sprinters usually get ready for the Italian three-week race on the sunny roads in beautiful Turkey that also allows the future climbing stars to chase success in a major stage race.

 

Turkey is certainly not known as a cycling powerhouse but every year the country takes a prominent place in the spotlight to showcase how much it has to offer for the avid cyclist. Like nearby countries Qatar and Oman, Turkey doesn't have a rich cycling scene and any high-level riders but over the past few years they have established a very important and highly popular event on the international cycling calendar that both showcases the beauties of the country and serves as the perfect preparation for the major European races.

 

First held in 1964, the Tour of Turkey is actually an old race but for many years its existence was almost unnoticed by the cycling world. As a lower-ranked event on the UCI calendar, it mostly attracted local riders and smaller teams and the professional peloton never touched Turkish soil. That all changed in 2008 when the Turkish government decided to use the sport of cycling to expose the country as a perfect tourist location and they saw a national tour along the sunny coast as the perfect means to achieve that objective.

 

With a money injection, the race saw a major upgrade and after having been granted 2.1 status in 2008, the race was even elevated to 2.HC status in 2010. The days when it was an event for smaller continental teams are now over and when the 2016 edition of the race takes off on Sunday, there will be lots of professional teams at the start to get in a week of quality racing on sunny roads. After initially only attracting smaller names from the best teams, the race now also inspires some of the sport's major stars and the Tour of Turkey has certainly grown to fame within the cycling world.

 

It is no coincidence that the race is able to attract the sport's largest squads. Held in the last part of April, the race is a perfect preparation event for the Giro d'Italia and while the traditional warm-up race in Romandie is famous for its rainy conditions, the riders are almost guaranteed to get 8 days of quality racing under the sun in a very well-organized event.  After its upgrade, it was originally held two weeks earlier but the organizers and the UCI made the wise decision to move it a bit closer to the Giro to create greater synergy between the two events.

 

For the Giro contenders, the Tour of Turkey fills an obvious void in the cycling calendar. The Tour of Romandie and the other major preparation race in Trentino are extremely hilly and offer almost no possibilities for the sprinters. Hence, the fast men have very few chances to test their legs ahead of the battles on the Italian roads if they line up in Italy or Switzerland. On the contrary, the long trip along the Turkish coast has plenty of terrain for the sprinters and even though organizers have hardened the race somewhat in recent editions, the fast men still have plenty of chances to show off their speed. Hence, it is no surprise to see the Giro riders split into two camps: the GC riders head to the mountains in Trentino and Romandie while the sprinters travel to sunny Turkey.

 

In the first years after the upgrade, the race was a sprint festival where the GC was determined on some of the lumpier stages along the coast that contained some solid climbing but no major ascents. Listening to the wishes of the teams, the organizers have made the GC battle more attractive over the last few years. The first major initiative was the inclusion of the mountaintop finish at Elmali - the mountain known as Turkey's Alpe d'Huez - for the 2012 edition and in 2013 another summit finish was added in Selcuk to make sure that the GC was not all decided in a single stage. This has turned the race into more of a "real" stage race, with the stages being more diverse and offering opportunities for different kinds of riders.

 

The first editions after the race's upgrade in 2008 were mostly characterized by professional continental teams going head to head with some of the younger riders on the ProTeams but this has changed in recent years. Despite the addition of harder stages, the race is still unable to compete with the Tour de Romandie for the attention from the GC stars and so the GC battle is still mostly reserved for young talents who get a rare chance to ride for themselves in a major UCI race. On the other hand, the race usually greets one of the most formidable line-up of sprinters seen at any point during the season. This year a less strong field means that the line-up is less star-studded but André Greipel, Sacha Modolo, Jakub Mareczko, Manuel Belletti, Eduard Grosu and Daniele Colli have all preferred to prepare themselves for the Italian bunch sprints in Turkey.

 

While the race has gained an important status as a crucial sporting event, it also serves its original purpose of promoting Turkey as a tourist destination. The race is broadcast live on Eurosport and showcases a number of the tourist attractions found along the Turkish coast while the riders battle it out on the nearby roads. The race could certainly be made tougher and more attractive from a sporting point of view by getting deeper into the mountains but the main purpose remains to showcase the beauty of the sunny Turkish coast.

 

Unfortunately, the race has been rocked by doping scandals over the last few years and as the race headed into the 50th anniversary in 2014, it really needed a credible winner. After some great editions in the first years after its upgrade, the race has been tarnished since including the Elmali mountaintop finish four years ago. The local Torku Sekerspor team has produced surprise winners twice in a row but both veteran Ivailo Gabrovski and young sensation Mustafa Sayar later tested positive after having beating the WorldTour stars in the biggest race for their team. Torku Sekerspor again earned an invitation in 2014 but had been forced to take a few anti-doping initiatives to prove themselves worthy of their spot in the race. They got through the race untarnished and will again be in the race in 2016.

 

For some reason, the exceptional growth of the event seems to have been put on hold in 2016. While the race has attracted lots of WorldTour teams in recent years, the field for this year’s race is pretty poor. Lampre-Merida and Lotto Soudal are the only WorldTour teams in a field that is largely dominated by pro continental teams and there will be more continental teams. Among the wildcard teams for the Giro, only Nippo-Vini Fantini and Southeast will be in attendance and so this year’s race is less of a preparation than it has been in the past. Furthermore, the race has been a lot less aggressive in their media strategy and doesn’t seem to be as well-organized as it has been in the past. The addition of the Tour of Croatia has certainly played a role as the new race now seems to be the preferred Giro preparation for the sprinters, attracting fast riders like Giacomo Nizzolo, Matteo Pelucchi and Mark Cavendish (even though the latter is not using the event to gear up for the Italian grand tour).

 

Last year’s race turned into a great battle between Davide Rebellin and Kristijan Durasek. The pair were clearly the strongest on Elmali where Rebellin put seven seconds into his rival in the final kilometre. However, the Italian cracked on the climb in Selcuk and even though he didn’t have an excellent day, Durasek gained enough time to take the lead. He defended his position in the final sprint stages and rode to the first stage race win of his career. Rebellin crashed out of the race on the final day and so Eduardo Sepulveda and Jay McCarthy completed the podium. Durasek will be back to defend his title and will again be up against Rebellin but there will be no Sepulveda who is recovering from injury, or McCarthy whose Tinkoff team will skip the race.

 

The course

Over the last few years, the organizers have followed a very similar format for the design of the course. As an important purpose of the race is to promote Turkey as a tourist destination, the race has taken in a very predictable route along the sunny Turkish coast while it has visited some of the most important cities along the way and several of the start and finishing venues have been visited several times. Riders who have done the race before will be intimately familiar with many of the finales and roads and some stages are identical copies of ones used for past editions of the race. The race has always travelled between the cities of Istanbul and Alanya, riding in an easterly direction in the early years and going the other way since 2012, but this year the race has been given an overhaul.

 

The race start will be back in Istanbul for the first time since 2011 but this year the race won’t finish in Alanya. Instead, the riders will travel to the interiorof the country for the second and third stages of the race where completely new terrain will be tested. On the fourth day, they will head to the coast for the traditional finish in Alanya and then the rest of the race will follow a well-known formula with several well-known stages. However, the new design means that they won’t have time to get all the way back to Istanbul and instead the race will finish in Selcuk which has hosted the finish of stage 6 in the last few years.

 

The new design also has an impact on the key stages. Originally, the race stayed near the coast for the entire race but in 2012 the race made a small deviation from that pattern when it made its first visit to the Elmali climb in the mountains in the southern part of the country. The brutal ascent will again feature on this year's course before the race returns back to the coast but it will come much later than usual as it will feature on stage 6 instead of stage 3.

 

In 2013 the organizers included the new summit finish in Selcuk but this year the race will skip the climb even though the final stage will finish in that city. Nonetheless, there will be two summit finishes in the race as the riders will visit a new climb already on the second stage. However, that stage is very different from the one in Selcuk which was one for the explosive riders. The climb in Cappadocia is more of a long, steady ascent but it is less steep than the climb in Selcuk.

 

Those two stages are likely to be the key stages for the GC and for the rest, there will be room for strong sprinters, really fast guys and attackers. Stages 3 and 5 are for the pure sprinters who may also have their say in stage 4. Stage 1 will have a late cobbled climb in the finale, making it a day for the strong sprinters who will also relish their chances in stages 7 and 8 which could also be day for breakaways.

 

Stage 1:

For the first time since 2011, the race route has been reverted, meaning that the riders will start the race in Istanbul as they did the early years after the race was upgraded to a higher status. Every year the organizers have proudly pointed to the fact that their Istanbul stage is the only bike race that is held in two continents as the riders will cross the Bosporus Strait to race both in Europe and Asia. Like last year, both the start and the finish will be in Europe.

 

In the past, the sprinters have often had their say in Istanbul but last year the organizers found a new finish with a cobbled climb in the finale that made it much harder for the fast finishers. Apparently, they liked the formula as the same finish will be used in 2016. Apart from that, the stage has been altered significantly as the riders will leave the city in the early part to head into the hills on the eastern outskirts of the city.

 

The short 130.2km will cross the Bosporus Strait immediately and then travel along the coast into the eastern outskirts. Here they will do a small loop to go up a category 3 climb (3.3km, 4.8%) at the 29.5km mark and then follow the same road back to the start in Europe. Along the way, they will contest the intermediate sprint and the Turkish Beauty Sprint at the 53.8km and 67.5km marks respectively, the latter coming at the starting point of the race.

 

From there, they will travel to the western part of the city where they will do three laps of a flat 15.3km circuit. At the end of the final lap, there are still 1.7km to go and the many technical challenges will make things difficult. Having taken a U-turn, the riders will do three right-hand turns in quick succession before they get to the flamme rouge where they face a short, stiff climb on a narrow, cobbled road. With 900m to go, there’s a left-hand turn and 300m later, the riders will go through the final left-hand turn that leads onto the 600m finishing straight. The road is very slightly rising in the end.

 

The finale debuted in last year’s race when Lluis Mas ended a very aggressive race by riding to a fantastic stage victory by launching a strong attack on the final climb, narrowly holding off Mark Cavendish and Carlos Barbero who won the sprint from a splintering field. With the stage coming early in the race, there is a bigger chance that the sprinters will be able to control things in the finale but it will be a very hectic opening to the race. Positioning is key on a stage that suits the strong sprinters much more than the really fast guys and there will be splits in the finale, meaning that the GC riders will have to stay vigilant to avoid an unexpected time losses.

 

Before Mas’ win, the sprinters dominated in Istanbul. In 2014 Mark Cavendish got his revenge after two straight defeats when he finally managed to beat Elia Viviani again. In 2013 Marcel Kittel beat Andrea Guardini and Andrew Fenn in the big bunch sprint while Theo Bos was stronger than Fenn and Stefan Van Dijk one year earlier. In 2011, Guardini won the opening stage while André Greipel won an explosive prologue in 2010. Mauro Finetto won the opening stage in 2009.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 2:

After an overnight transfer, the riders will visit a new part of Turkey on the second day of the 2016 edition of the race. The flight has brought them to the interior of the country in a deviation from the usual concept of following the coast and as there are very few flat rods in this part, the riders will face the first serious climbing in a tough circuit race that includes an unprecented summit finish and will be the first stern test of the climbers

 

The 154.1km stage will both start and finish in Cappadocia. From the start, they will head straight to the main circuit which they will reach in the city of Göreme after just 2.9km of racing. They will now do four laps of the 36.4km circuit that includes a tough category 2 climb which starts a few kilometres before Göreme. Having returned to Göreme for the final time, they will go up the climb again, meaning that they will have to tackle the ascent a total of five times.

 

The climb is 7.9km long and averages 3.7%.The top comes 800m from the finish and the final 500m are still uphill at 4.2%. The rest of the circuit is made up of a descent and a mainly flat section that leads to the bottom of the climb. There will be KOM points on offer on the third and fourth passages of the climb while the intermediate sprint comes when the riders reach the bottom for the second time. The Turkisk Beauty Sprint comes when the riders reach Göreme for the third time.

 

The final climb is not very steep and it is nothing like Elmali which features later in the race. It will be less selective but it will still create the first time gaps in the overall standings and give the first indications of who’s going to win the Tour of Turkey overall. With a total of five passages, there will be a significant amount of climbing throughout the day and this means that it will be a day of attrition that will create bigger gaps than the ascent may indicate.

 

Cappadocia has not hosted a finish at the Tour of Turkey for more than a decade but it had its own Tour of Cappadocia in 2011. It was won by local rider Mert Mutlu.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

The decision to go to the interior of the country for the first time since the race was upgraded to a 2.1 status means that there is a chance to include new stages. After the unprecedented summit finish on stage 2, the riders will get the chance to visit more new terrain on the third day but unlike in the previous stage, there will be no major climbs. Staying on a flat plateau for the entire stage, the pure sprinter should get their first chance on the third day of the race.

 

The 158.9km stage brings the riders from Aksaray to Konya and consists of a long, almost completely straight run in a southwesterly direction as the riders are now travelling back towards the coast and more familiar terrain. They will stay at around 1000m of altitude throughout the entire stage but despite the high elevation, there will only be a single climb at the 96.5km mark. Instead, it is an almost completely flat day in the saddle where even corners will be somewhat of a rarity. The highlights will be the two intermediate sprints at the 43.1km and 122.4km marks and the Turkish Beauty Sprint at the 96.5km mark. In the end, they will do a small lap around the city of Konya before heading to the city centre along flat roads.

 

As the first stage had a difficult finale, this is the first chance for the pure sprinters and they are unlikely to miss out. Unless the wind plays a role, this should be a controlled affair that will allow the fast finishers to battle for glory for the first time in this year’s race.

 

Konya has not hosted a stage finish of the Tour of Turkey for more than a decade but it has often been visited by the smaller Tour of Mevlana.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

After two days in new terrain, the riders will return to a familiar area on stage 4 when they head back to the coast and the traditional finish in Alanya. The city hosted the finish of the race every year from 2008 to 2011 and has been the scene of the opening stage from 2012 and 2015. This year the tourist city will welcome the race at the midpoint. Coming from the hilly interior of the country, the stage includes some significant climbing but as it all comes early in the stage, the fast finishers are hoping to once again battle for glory in one of the key places of the race.

 

At 187km, the stage is the longest yet and will bring the riders from Seydisehir to Alanya. The starting city is located in the mountains and the first part of the stage consists of a sourtherly run to the coast. There are no flat roads in this part of the country and this means that there is some serious climbing in the first part. There is category 1 climb at the 31.9km mark and it leads almost straight into the bottom of a category 2 climb whose summit sits at 1810m of altitude and comes at the 38km mark.

 

From there, the terrain is mainly descending but there is another small climb along the way as the riders will contest a category 3 KOM sprint at the 113km mark. Then they will finish the descent and finally get to the coast where they will follow the flat coastal road to Alanya. Along the way, they will contest the intermediate sprint with 52.1km to go and the Turkish Beauty Sprint with 33.7km to go. The final part of the stage is almost completely flat.

 

There is some significant climbing along the way and as there will already be some time gaps, it is not impossible that a strong group can get clear and make it to the finish. However, there will be plenty of time for the sprinters to recover from what is likely to be a fast start to the stage and they will have time to organize a chase too. Hence, it will probably be another bunch sprint but history shows that things can sometimes be different in an edition where there won’t be many pro teams at the start. In the early years of the race, the GC riders sometimes attacked each other in stages like this and if that happens, it could be a lot more selective.

 

That Alanya is a sprinter's paradise is reflected by the list of winners as Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Theo Bos, Kenny Van Hummel, André Greipel, Sebastian Siedler and Maximilano Richeze are the winners in the city since the upgrade of the race. Last year Cavendish took his second consecutive win here.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

Having returned to the coast and well-known terrain, the race will follow a much more traditional formula in the final part of the race. In fact, the fifth stage will be an almost identical copy of the second stage of the 2014 edition of the race. Usually, the riders have travelled from Alanya to Antalya on the second stage but two years ago, they passed through Antalya to end the stage in Kemer. That formula will again be used for this year’s edition of the stage.

 

The 189.3km stage will be following the coastal road almost all day although they will briefly head inland on two occasions near the midpoint of the stage before passing through Antalya which is located in one of the flattest parts of Turkey. Hence, the stage will be almost completely flat and there will be no categorized climbs at all. In Antalya, they will rejoin the coastal road and then travel in a southerly direction to the finish. The intermediate sprints will come at the 99.8km and 156.4km marks respectively while the Turkish Beauty Sprint comes at the 120.4km mark.

 

In the finale, there will be a long, straigjt road.The riders will make a left-hand turn from the main road onto the road that leads into the city centre and from there it is completely straight for the final few kilometres.

 

The final part of the race will be much hillier so this could the final chance for the sprinters. Hence, their teams are likely to control things firmly. The wind rarely plays a role in the Tour of Turkey and so it is hard to imagine that it will not be an almost complete bunch that decides the first winner of the stage to Kemer.

 

When Kemer hosted a stage finish in 2014, Mark Cavendish took his second consecutive win by beating Francesco Chicchi and Niccolo Bonifazio.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

In 2012, the organizers listed to the wish from the riders to have a mountaintop finish in the race when they first visited the climb of Elmali whish is known as Turkey's Alpe d'Huez. Since then, the climb has always been the scene of the queen stage and played the biggest role in determining the overall winner of the race. Every year the stage has come already on the third day but this year the new design of the course means that it comes much later in the race, just two days before the end of the race.

 

This year the stage has been shortened significantly as it is only 116.9km long and this means that the riders will have significantly less climbing in the legs when they arrive at the bottom of the final climb. The stage starts at sea level in Kumluca and from there the riders will follow the coastal road for a short while before they will head into the mountains. Here the terrain isslightly rising until they get to the Turkish Beauty Sprint at the 45km mark. That signals the start of a 9.7km category 1 climb that averages 5.1% and summits with 62.2km to go. a bit compared to last year but like in 2014 the riders will approach Elmali from the hilly south which makes the stage quite a bit harder than it was in 2012 and 2013. This means that the riders will have done a significant amount of climbing before they get to the final climb in the 165.3km stage.

 

The riders have now reached a flat plateau where they will spend the next part of the stage on flat roads as they head towards the final climb, passing through the city of Elmali with 32.1km to go and contesting the intermediate sprint 28.9km from the finish. The flat roads will come to an abrupt end when they hit the final ascent.

 

The climb is 11.5km long and has an average gradient of 6-7%. The second half, however, is very steep and the in the past three editions of the races, the peloton has blown to pieces on the upper slopes, with the riders crossing the line one by one. Especially the final kilometre is very hard and can do a lot of damage and the climb is hard enough to produce some big time gaps on a day that suits the pure climbers.

 

Compared to recent years, the stafe is a lot easier and as usual there is a long flat section leading to the final climb. History proves that this stage has always come down to a battle between the GC riders on the final climb and it is usually a pretty controlled affair. In the end, the best climbers will battle it out on the ascent. The big difference can be made in the final part of the climb but history also shows that one can attack a few kilometres from the finish. With no summit finish in Selcuk later in the race, there is little doubt that this is by far the most important stage of the race.

 

In 2012, Ivailo Gabrovski crushed the opposition on this climb by attacking from afar but after his positive doping control, the stage win was given to Alexandr Dyachenko who beat Danail Petrov by 3 seconds, with only 6 riders finishing within a minute of the stage winner. In 2013, Natnael Berhane made a strong late acceleration to put 6 seconds into Kevin Seeldraeyers and Mustafa Sayar on a day when 14 riders finished within a minute of the talented Eritrean. In 2014, Rein Taaramae and Adam Yates rode away from the rest before battling it out in the final steep section where the Estonian distanced the Australian by 6 seconds, with 11 riders finished in a bigger group between 38 and 44 seconds later. Last eyar Davide Rebellin and Kristijan Durasek were in a class of their own and it was the veteran who accelerated in the finale to win the stage, with Eduardo Sepulveda being the only other rider to finish within a minute of the winner.

 

 

 

Stage 7:

After the big GC battle in Elmali, it is time for another Tour of Turkey classic which comes much later in the race than usual. The seventh stage is an almost identical copy of a stage that already featured in the 2012, 2014 and 2015 editions of the race and the final two-thirds are identical to the fourth stage of the 2013 edition as well. Hence, many riders will be intimately familiar with the lumpy nature of the route on a day that could offer several different scenarios and is not one for the pure sprinters.

 

The stage is a short one as it heads over just 128.6km from Fethiye to Marmaris and even though the riders will stay near the coast all day, the area is sufficiently hilly to make it a tough day in the saddle. The course is littered with short climbs and even though only one is categorized, it is a day full of ups and downs.

 

After three smaller ascents, the riders wll go up the day's category 3 climb, summiting at the 32.9km mark. From there the terrain is significantly easier as the peloton continues its westerly journey along the coast, contesting the intermediate sprint at the 72km mark, but things get difficult when they make a left-hand turn 32.4km from the finish.

 

Having contested the Turkish Beauty sprint with 27.6km to go, the riders will now cross a peninsula that will send them up two climbs. The top of the first and smallest one comes 25km from the finish but the main challenge is the final ascent that takes the riders up to around 250m of altitude. The top comes inside the final 10km of the stage and then it is a fast descent all the way to the finish in Marmaris, with only the final 2.5km being flat. The finish is a technical one as the riders will take a sharp right-hand turn just 1.5km from the finish and then take another two turns before reaching the final 90-degree left-hand corner just 500m from the line. It leads onto the finishing straight along the seafront and history proves that it is very important to be well-placed at this point.

 

As time gaps have opened up, the stage could be one for a strong breakaway but history proves that it is usually one for the sprinters who have a solid pair of climbing legs. Last year Andé Greipel survived the challenges and beat Daniele Colli and Daniele Ratto in a 50-rider sprint while riders like Mark Cavendish and Sacha Modolo were left behind. In 2014 Mark Cavendish survived the challenges when around 80 ridera arrived at the finish and he beat Maximilano Richeze and his lead-out man Mark Renshaw in the sprint after a great display by the team. One year earlier, Andre Greipel survived the late climbs before beating Nikias Arndt and Moreno Hofland in the sprint while Mark Renshaw held off Matthew Goss in a very close battle in 2012.

 

In 2011 when a stage had the same finale, Manuel Belletti won a sprint from a reduced peloton while we have to go back to 2010 to find the last successful breakaway. That year Giovanni Visconti was the strongest from a 5-rider group that escaped on the final climb while Daryl Impey won from a long-distance break one year earlier.

 

In any case, many riders have marked this one out as a chance for a successful escape and so we can expect some fast and aggressive racing all day. The final climb is usually the scene of some aggressive racing where the GC riders give it a go but history shows that it is hard for the climbers to make a difference, especially if there is a headwind. With fewer WorldTour teams, a breakaway will have a bigger chance, especially as it comes later in the race, but the strong sprinters will also eye what could be the final opportunity in the race.

 

 

 

Stage 8:

In 2013, the organizers decided to include a second summit finish in the city of Selcuk, meaning that the Elmali climb was no longer decisive. In fact, the leader’s jersey has changed hands here every year. However, the race won’t return to the climb in 2016. Selcuk will again welcome the race and even host the grand finale but this year’s stage will finish in the city centre, meaning that it will completely change the nature of the stage.

 

The 201.7km stage is the longest of the race and will bring the riders from Marmaris to Selcuk. After a relatively flat start, the peloton will head into the mountains as they will deviate from the usual pattern of the race that has seen them follow the coast in this part of the country. After 26.2km of racing, they will go up a category 1 climb of that averages 6.7% over 9.3km and leads to the summit at the 35.5km mark. From there, they will ride through rolling terrain, passing through the first intermediate sprint at the 53.7km mark before they will descend to a flat part of the country close to sea level. Here they will follow flat road while contesting the final intermediate sprint and the Turkish Beauty Sprint at the 114.5km and 151.5km marks respectively.

 

The riders will reach Aydin with 56.2km to go and from there the final part of the stage is identical to last year’s stage with the main exception that they won’t go up the final climb. This means that they will follow flat roads until the get to a late category 3 climb. The ascent starts with 15.6km to go and averages 3.3% over 4.7km. The summit comes just 10.9km from the finish and from there a descent will lead to the final few flat kilometres.

 

The final part of the stage is well-known as it has featured in the race three years in a row. However, as there was a summit finish, the late climb was never really used by the GC riders to attack each other. This year things will be different as it is the final chance for them to turn things around but as it is a pretty easy climb, it is unlikely to change the outcome. As the sprinters will be uncertain about their ability to survive the final climb, especially after a very hard start to the stage, there is a big chance that this could be a day for a breakaway but some of the stronger sprinters may also eye a reduced bunch sprint as there is no reason to save anything on what will be the final day of the race.

 

Last year Pello Bilbao rode to victory in the summit finish in Selcuk as he put 3 seconds into Miguel Angel Lopez while Kristijan Durasek gained enough time on Davide Rebellin to take the lead. In 2014, Adam Yates turned things around by launching a big acceleration with 1km to go. Race leader Rein Taaramae chased desperately but was unable to keep up with the Australian who won the stage with a 2-second advantage over Davide Formolo and Davide Rebellin to take the overall lead by a single second. One year earlier Mustafa Sayar showed lots of punch when he left everybody else behind and put 18 seconds into second placed Yoann Bagot whose teammate Nicolas Edet followed 23 seconds later.

 

 

 

The favourites

The start list has often attracted most attention due to its fabulous line-up of sprinters. On the other hand, the biggest climbers all stay away from the Turkish race, often preferring to do Liege-Bastogne-Liege and/or the Tour de Romandie instead.

                                                         

That makes the GC battle rather refreshing as has often is a rare opportunity for the future stars to lead their respective teams in a big bike race and history proves that you may be a lot wiser about the upcoming grand tour contenders if you keep a close look at the GC in Turkey. If you want to see the battle between the biggest riders, there is no reason to follow the climbing stages in Turkey but if you want to see a race between some of the best talents, the Turkish race has often been the one to keep an eye on.

 

With no time trials and bonus seconds in the race, it will all come down to the best climbing legs and unless something unexpected happens, the race will be decided on stages 2 and 6. Stages 3, 4 and 5 all have completely flat finales and will play no role. It will be important to stay vigilant in the first stage where the tricky finale can create splits but it will only be a question of small gaps. History shows that the late climb in stage 7 is not hard enough to make a difference and even though we will definitely see attacks in the final part of stage 8, we doubt that the late climb will be tough enough to do any real damage. Even though the riders are travelling along the coast, the wind has not played a big role in the race over the past few years.

 

With the race set to be decided in the two summit finishes, it is definitely one for the climbers. However, the two climbing stages are a bit different. The long, steep climb to Elmali is one for the real climbers while the new climb to Cappadocia is more of a long, steady ascent where the gradients are less severe and where it could come down to an uphill sprint from a group of the best climbers. That means that it is likely to be less selective than the summit finish in Selcuk whose explosive nature was great terrain for punchy climbers. Overall the race is very likely to be decided in the Elmali stage.

 

With none of the big stars present, the riders are also on a much more level playing field and the list of potential winners is both longer and more open than in most of the European races. History proves that young riders have often excelled in this race and two years ago two neo-pros even finished in the top 4. This year it is slightly different as there are less WorldTour teams at the start and instead many pro continental teams eye a chance to win a big stage race with one of their leaders.

 

One of those teams is Caja Rural who go into the race with an in-form Pello Bilbao as the captain. The Spaniard has progressed steadily and is constantly getting stronger and stronger. Actually, he may have won last year’s race overall if he hadn’t been taken out of contention by a puncture in the queen stage. As the field had split in the crosswinds, he never made it back but by winning the Selcuk stage a few days later, he proved that he had the form to win the race.

 

This year Bilbao is even stronger. He amazed everybody, including himself, at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he was able to match some of the best in the world on the climbs and rode to an impressive 10th in the very hilly time trial. He had one bad day which cost him too much time in the GC but the race proved that he can now be up there in the very hard stages at the WorldTour level. He went on to finish second behind the unstoppable Alejandro Valverde in the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon where he nearly won the wet and hard first stage.

 

Bilbao is no pure climber and is more suited to the short, punchy climbs. He would definitely have preferred Selcuk over Elmali but in this field, we still expect the in-form Spaniard to be one of the best in the queen stage. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint and this means that he would be one of the favourites in stage 2 too. Bilbao has all the skills to win this race and so he is our favourite.

 

The small Uniero team was a late inclusion in this race but they could actually end up with the overall win. The team goes into the race with Mauro Finetto as their leader and the Italian has the skills to win the race. For several years, he has been one of the best in the hard Italian one-day races and so it was a big surprise that he failed to find a pro team for 2016. He only signed with Uniero in February but after a few races to get back into the rhythm, he has confirmed that he belongs at the highest level.

 

Finetto has been up there in all the hardest Italian races. One week ago he was on the podium in the Giro dell’Appennino which is a really tough race with lots of climbs. He has just done the Giro del Trentino but as he is no pure climber that race was too hard for him.

 

Now he is aiming for victory at the Tour of Turkey and we are curious to see how he will do here. As said, he is not a real climber so Elmali could be a bit too much for him. However, in this field, he should be one of the best on the ascents and if you can be up there in Appennino, you can be up there on Elmali too. As he is also fast in a sprint, he will be one of the favourites in stage 2. An overall victory could be the final proof that a top level team should sign him soon.

 

Caja Rural is not all about Pello Bilbao. Veteran David Arroyo is definitely no longer the rider he once was but he is still a very capable climber. Last year he finished 11th in the Vuelta a Espana and after a relatively slow start to the season, he seems to have hit peak condition in time for the Turkish race. He was third in the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon queen stage where he even did better than Bilbao. This proves that he is ready to target a rare victory.

 

The race should suit him well. The long, steady climb in stage 2 may not be to his liking but Elmali is great for a pure climber like him. With Bilbao at his side, he may have some tactical options in the battle against his rivals and if the in-form Spanish duo can work well together, they will be hard to beat for the rest of the field.

 

Last year Davide Rebellin was close to winning this race. Surprisingly, he won the stage to Elmali which was always going to be the big challenge while he lost ground on the explosive climb in Selcuk. The veteran has always been a rider for short, punchy ascents so one would have expected him to excel in Selcuk and suffer on Elmali. He was still on track to take second overall but a crash in the final stage forced him to abandon.

 

This year Rebellin is aiming for revenge. He was flying at the start of the year when he rode really strongly but in April he has not been at the level he had 12 months ago. He was not as good in Volta Limburg Classic and Brabantse Pijl as he was in 2015 and a puncture took him out of contention at Amstel Gold Race. This means that he is less likely to be as strong as he was last year. On the other hand, he has proved that he can win on Elmali and he is one of the most consistent riders in the peloton. On paper, he is one of the best riders here and he is naturally one of the biggest favourites.

 

Lampre-Merida go into the race with one of the strongest teams. They have defending champion Kristijan Durasek but as he has had a few crashes recently, he is unlikely to be at his 2015 level. Instead, their best card could very well be youngster Simone Petilli. The Italian is one of the greatest climbing talents and proved his huge class with several strong showing in the 2015, most notably with a fifth place at the Tour de l’Avenir. He has gradually built his condition and showed that he is approaching his best with an aggressive performance at Vuelta al Pais Vasco, his first WorldTour race. He went on to finish 7th in the Giro dell’Appennino where he stayed with the best climbers.

 

Petilli is a pure climber and so he should find Elmali to his liking while stage 2 will be more about defending himself. With Durasek, Przemyslaw Niemiec and Ilya Koshevoy at his side, he will have formidable team support and that could allow him to come out on top in a race that suits him well.

 

Caja Rural have more cards to play if things don’t work out for Bilbao. Jaime Roson is a huge climbing talent who climbed with the best at last year’s USA Pro Challenge when he rode as a stagiaire for the Spanish team. That allowed him to get move up to the pro ranks and after a slow start to the year he has found some form. He was fifth in the queen stage in Castilla y Leon and this proves that he is ready to target victory in a race that suits him really well. Like fello youngster Petilli, he is a pure climber and so Elmali will be a perfect testing ground for him.

 

While Roson and Petilli are youngsters, David Belda is a veteran who has finally got the chance at a higher level. For years, he has been one of the best climbers in Spain but none of the pro teams have wanted to sign him. This year he has signed a contract with the Roth team which has given him the chance to do bigger races. Unfortunaly, he has not been his usual highly consistent self and this raises some questions about his form. However, he showed signs of improvement at the recent Giro dell’Appennino and he has proved that he can win at this level. He won the 2014 Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and two stages at the 2014 Volta ao Portugal and if he is back at that level, he should be one of the strongest on Elmali.

 

If Rebellin fails, CCC Polsat have a young card to play. Jan Hirt proved his huge potential when he rode to seventh in the queen stage of last year’s Tour de Suisse and he went on to finish third overall at the Tour of Austria. Unfortunately, the talented Czech is very inconsistent and you never know what you get from him. He has shown no signs of form yet but on the other hand he hasn’t raced for a long time. If he has carefully built his condition for this race, he is climbing well enough to win the race.

 

Another pure climber is Funvic leader Alex Diniz. The Brazilian has beaten some of the best WorldTour riders on the climbs at the Tour de San Luis and been third overall in that race. In 2014, he was 8th overall in the Tour of Utah and last year he was again climbing with the best in San Luis. This year he didn’t do the Argentinean and in fact he has only done a single UCI race. He was 12th overall at the Volta do Rio which proves that his form is not too bad. If he has the legs he has had in San Luis in the past, there is no reason that he can’t win this race.

 

Lampre-Merida have several strong climbers. One of them is veteran Przemyslaw Niemiec whose fifth place at the 2013 Giro d’Italia proves his climbing skills. However, he has failed to reach his best level in 2015 and 2016 and it seems that Father Time has caught up with him. He wasn’t flying in Appennino and nothing suggests that he is ready to turn things around. However, you can never rule him out in a race without any top climbers.

 

As said, defending champion Kristijan Durasek crashed at the Giro dell’Appennino and so his Lampre-Merida team has played down expectations for the Croatian. He hasn’t shown any signs of form this year but that doesn’t mean that you can rule him completely out. Last year he had performed very poorly in the build-up to the race but he still managed to win overall. When at 100%, he is a great climber who proved his class by winning a stage at last year’s Tour de Suisse. He is part of one of the best teams in the race and will be eager to prove that he can do just as well as he did last year.

 

The fourth Lampre-Merida climber is Ilya Koshevoy. The Belarusian is a great talent but he is hugely inconsistent. Usually, he is far off the pace but occassionaly he proves his class. He did so when he finished fifth overall at the Tour de San Luis and second in a big mountain stage at last year’s Vuelta. He has not been riding well recently but his form seems to come from nowhere for select races. As a pure climber, he should find the course to the liking.

 

Jose Goncalves deserves a mention. The Portuguese was brutally strong in last year’s Vuelta where he was close to a stage win on several occasions. He may not be a pure climber but when he is at 100%, he can do well in a race at this level. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been at his best in 2016 and most recently he was off the pace in Castilla y Leon. Nothing suggests that he will be able to match the best here but you can never rule the Portuguese talent completely out.

 

Finally, Mustafa Sayar deserves a mention. The disgraced rider won the race in 2013 but had failed a EPO test in an earlier race and was disqualified. Now he is back with his Torku team and proved that his form is good as he recently finished fourth in the Tour of Mersin. His previous results seem to have been based on a lie but we don’t dare not to mention the Turkish climber at all.

 

***** Pello Bilbao

**** Mauro Finetto, David Arroyo

*** Davide Rebellin, Simone Petilli, David Belda, Jaime Roson

** Jan Hirt, Alex Diniz, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Kristijan Durasek, Ilya Koshevoy, Mustafa Sayar

* Daniel Diaz, Sylwester Szmyd, Remy Di Gregorio, Quentin Pacher, Karel Hnik, Magno Nazaret, Adam Hansen, Andris Smirnovs