The waiting time is finally over! Tomorrow the European cycling season kicks off as the riders will head out for the first race in the four-day Challenge Mallorca race series. The four races may be mostly about preparation but their mix of climbing and sprints offer everybody a chance to take the pressure off early in the season by opening the account right from the beginning.

 

For the second year in a row, one of the most popular preparation events, the four-day race series Challenge Mallorca, will be held one week earlier than it has usually been and so marks the start of the European season which has traditionally been opened at the GP d’Ouverture la Marseillaise in France. At this time of the year, Europe is really not suited to bike racing but the island of Mallorca usually offers reasonable conditions for riders to get their season underway with a challenging mix of four one-day races that offer a bit for everyone.

 

It is no wonder that the race series is very popular among the teams. Mallorca is a preferred training venue at this time of the year and many teams use the four races as a test of form at the end of their final pre-season training camp. Like most other races at this time of year, the event has been forced to cancel and shorten races in the past but in general, the weather conditions have been favourable. That can’t be said of the economic situation as the series has been fighting hard to survive and on a few occasions, its future has been in doubt. It has been shortened from five to four races but until now, it has managed to remain an important part of the preparation for many teams.

 

The race series is no stage race as every team is allowed to field a team from which they can choose their line-up for every race. This means that the start lists for the individual races won’t be known until less than 24 hours before the start, with many teams making last-minute decision about who to race where. There is a classification for riders who do all four races but as very few do the entire schedule, it doesn’t carry much prestige. Instead, the riders pick and choose the races that suit them best as the series has a bit for everyone. Traditionally the first two races have been for the sprinters before the riders headed into the mountains for the final two races but like last year the sprint races will bookend the series in 2016.

 

The race series has traditionally kicked off with a fast criterium in Palma while the second race has been the slightly hillier Trofeo Santanyi – Ses Salines – Campos which has also been a race for sprinters. To have the Palma race on a Sunday, things were changed around for 2015, meaning that the Salines race is now the opener in the series. The course varies slightly from year to year and so also has had different names. This year it will be known as Trofeo Felanitx – Ses Salines – Campos – Porreres and the lumpy race should again suit the fast finishers. However, the finish has changed and includes a late climb that will challenge the fast finishers.

 

The course

The race takes place over 176.8km from Felanitz to Porreres and is made of almost two complete laps of a 94km circuit. It is uphill right from the start but mostly takes in flat roads close to the coast in the southern part of the island. There are two categor4 climbs in the second half of the course.

 

The riders won’t complete the second lap of the circuit though. Instead, they will end the race in the city of Porreres, just 4.2km from the top of the second of the two climbs, Coll es Monjos. However, it is just 2.4km long with an average gradient of 3.4% and won’t be much of a challenge. From the top, it is a flat run to the finish along a straight road with no corners. The penultimate climb comes 21.9km from the finish.

 

In the past, the race has always finished in a bunch sprint. The race made its debut as part of the series in 2012 when Andrew Fenn took the win. I 2013, Leigh Howard was the fastest and it was Sacha Modolo who beat Ben Swift and Gianni Meersman to win for the second day in a row. Last year Matteo Pelucchi got his season off to a great start by beating Elia Viviani and Jose Joaquin Rojas into the minor podium positions.

 

 

 

The weather

Many riders prefer to line up in Mallorca to avoid the bad weather in other parts of Europe but on several occasions the races have been marred by bad weather. That is unlikely to happen in 2016 as the weather forecast predicts great racing conditions. Thursday is set to get off to a misty start but in the afternoon it will be bright sunshine and a maximum temperature of 17 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind as only a light breeze will be blowing from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the circuit, a crosswind as they head along the coast and a tailwind in the final part with the two climbs. There will be a crosswind in the short section that they will only do once.

 

The favourites

 

OBS! This analysis is based on a provisional start list. The final start list was not known at the time of writing.

 

The mixed courses in Mallorca mean that it’s a very mixed field of sprinters and climbers. With teams having the chance to chance the roster from race to race, the riders can focus on the races that really suit them and there is a decent sprint field at the race series. Most of them will probably skip the hillier races and focus all their efforts on the first and final races that are likely to come down to bunch sprints. At the same time, there will be a pretty large number of climbers on the start list for tomorrow’s race too but their intention will only be to get safely to the finish.

 

With a relatively strong field of sprinters, lots of teams will be gunning for a bunch sprint. Compared to the final race in Palma, the opening event is a lot hiller and the new finale with a late climb will make it harder for the sprint teams to keep things together. The amount of climbing adds up but none of the ascents are really challenging. Later in the season they would do nothing to test an in-form pro rider but at this time of the year they may take some sprinters out of contention. There is a very short distance from the top of the final climb and as there will be a tailwind, the pace will be fast. As there is no descent, there will be no room for recovery but the best sprinters should all be able to keep up with the best.

 

Lotto Soudal have done nothing to hide that they want to win the race with André Greipel and Nacer Bouhanni and Cofidis also want to get the year off to a winning start. Those two teams will be keen to set up a bunch sprint and will make sure that the early break has no chance. Bora-Argon 18 are here with Sam Bennett and are likely to lend a hand too.

 

The weather will be excellent and there will barely be any wind so the nervousness that has often characterized this race, should have less of an impact. Hence, we can expect a relatively controlled and straightforward sprint race until we get to the finale.

 

While the late climb won’t do much to challenge the sprinters, it could still pose a threat. It is a perfect launch pad for a late attack and the tailwind will make it easier to finish it off. It won’t be impossible for a few strong riders to throw a spanner in the works for the sprinters but with a strong Lotto Soudal team going all in for a bunch sprint, the odds are definitely on the fast finishers.

 

Last year André Greipel tried this new start to his season for the first time and while it clearly paid off later, he failed to get the year off to the usual winning start. He left Mallorca with an 8th and 2nd place but was back on top of the podium a little later in Algarve. There is no doubt that Greipel is not in Tour Down Under condition which would have made him almost unbeatable but he is always at a relatively high level right from the start of the year.

 

This makes it hard to look beyond him as the big favourite. He is a relatively good climber and should actually be favoured by the late challenge. Most importantly, he can rely on the best lead-out train in the world. Greg Henderson is not here but the combination Marcel Sieberg-Jens Debusschere-Jürgen Roelandts has worked very well in the past and have lots of experience in working together. Cofidis and Bora-Argon 18 also have decent trains but they are unlikely to be any match to Lotto Soudal. Furthermore, the long finishing straight is tailor-made for a power sprinter like Greipel who is the obvious favourite.

 

His big rival is of course Nacer Bouhanni who also made his debut in Mallorca in 2015. Like Greipel, he left the island empty-handed but this time he has a much better chance as his lead-out is now dialed in. Borut Bozic is a new addition to the train but has a vast experience. Cyril Lemoine, Christophe Laporte and final lead-out man Geoffrey Soupe all worked with Bouhanni last year and know how to put him into position.

 

Bouhanni has always been very good right from the start of the year and has won numerous races in February. The late climb is perfect for him as he is one of the best climbers among the sprinters and he has proved that he has the speed to beat almost everyone. He would have preferred a more technical finale though and he doesn’t have Greipel’s impressive power. He will probably have to come from behind but at this time, a better form and the late climb means that he could turn out to be faster than the German.

 

Bora-Argon 18 are still trying to build a successful lead-out for Sam Bennett. They have come far but things are still not dialed in completely. In this race, the Irishman can count on Zakkari Dempster, Michael Schwarzmann, Scott Thwiates and new signing Rudiger Selig. That’s a decent train but they don’t have the firepower of Lotto Soudal or Cofidis.

 

However, Bennett is one of the fastest sprinters in the world. He has beaten the elite in Qatar and Bayern and beat an in-form Alexander Kristoff in Norway last August. Furthermore, he is a pretty good climber – just remember how he won a tough stage in the Tour of Britain before turning pro – but his fragile health have often set him back. If his form is good which is usually the case at the start of the year, he has the speed to beat Greipel and Bouhanni.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have two potential sprinters. Matteo Trentin and Gianni Meersman are both suited to this kind of finish that includes a late climb and the Belgian team would love the race to be as hard as possible. It remains to be seen who will be given the leadership role as they have very similar characteristics and much will depend on the condition. On paper, Trentin is probably the faster of the pair but Meersman has often been very strong at this time of the year. None of them are as fast as Greipel, Bouhanni and Bennett but Trentin probably has the best chance to beat them. While they lack a bit of speed, they have plenty of horsepower in their lead-out train. If Etixx-QuickStep can make the race hard for the pure sprinters and deliver their sprinter perfectly, they both have a chance.

 

Trek find themselves in a position that is very similar to Etixx-QuickStep’s. Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns are both fast and like this kind of hilly finale. However, Stuyven probably needs an even harder race to excel while Theuns has a better track record in the big bunch sprints. Last year Theuns was flying at the start of the year, winning the GP La Marseillaise, and with Stijn Devolder, Fabian Cancellara, Marco Coledan and Stuyven, he has plenty of horsepower for the lead-out. He is probably not fast enough to beat the likes of Greipel, Bouhanni and Bennett but a rider that has been on the podium in Scheldeprijs is always a contender.

 

IAM won this race in 2015 and now hope that Jonas Van Genechten will be strong enough to do what Matteo Pelucchi did 12 months ago. Van Genechten is not as fast as Pelucchi but he is a much better climber and should find this kind of hilly course to his liking. The Belgian is actually pretty fast and didn’t achieve the results that his speed deserves in 2015. He has Vicente Reynes and Martin Elmiger to set him up for the sprint and with their experience, he has a decent shot at the podium.

 

Dimension Data are here without most of their sprinters and it will be up to Edvald Boasson Hagen and Youcef Reguigui to deliver results in the flat races. Boasson Hagen is clearly the fastest of the pair and he is always very strong at the start of the year. However, he lacks the speed to beat the pure sprinters and witjout much of a lead-out, it will be difficult.

 

FDJ are here with their two young sprinters Marc Sarreau and Lorrenzo Manzin who both won races in their first year at the pro level. It remains to be seen which rider will be given the leadership role and much will depend on their form. However, Sarreau probably seems to be slightly faster than his teammate and his good end to the previous season clearly shows his potential. He has the experience of Sebastien Chavanel to keep him in position for the finale and could create a surprise.

 

For other fast riders, look to Andrew Fenn, Ramunas Navardauskas, Owain Doull, Youcef Reguigui, Dylan Page, Filippo Fortin, Lucas Gaday, Matti Breschel, Eduard Prades, Pello Bilbao, Jose Goncalves, Roman Maikin, Igor Boev, and Christopher Latham.

 

As said, there is a chance that a late attack on the final climb could work. It won’t be easy as Lotto Soudal will control things firmly. However, riders like Boasson Hagen, Giovanni Visconti, Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar are usually in very good condition at this time of the year and have the combination of power and speed to make such a move a success.

 

UPDATE: Nacer Bouhanni will skip the race

 

***** André Greipel

**** Nacer Bouhanni, Sam Bennett

*** Matteo Trentin, Edward Theuns, Jonas Van Genechten,

** Gianni Meersman, Jasper Stuyven, Marc Sarreau, Lorrenzo Manzin, Edvald Boasson Hagen

* Andrew Fenn, Ramunas Navardauskas, Owain Doull, Youcef Reguigui, Filippo Fortin