The waiting time is finally over! Tomorrow the European cycling season kicks off as the riders will head out for the first race in the four-day Challenge Mallorca race series. The four races may be mostly about preparation but their mix of climbing and sprints offer everybody a chance to take the pressure off early in the season by opening the account right from the beginning.

 

For the second year in a row, one of the most popular preparation events, the four-day race series Challenge Mallorca, will be held one week earlier than it has usually been and so marks the start of the European season which has traditionally been opened at the GP d’Ouverture la Marseillaise in France. At this time of the year, Europe is really not suited to bike racing but the island of Mallorca usually offers reasonable conditions for riders to get their season underway with a challenging mix of four one-day races that offer a bit for everyone.

 

It is no wonder that the race series is very popular among the teams. Mallorca is a preferred training venue at this time of the year and many teams use the four races as a test of form at the end of their final pre-season training camp. Like most other races at this time of year, the event has been forced to cancel and shorten races in the past but in general, the weather conditions have been favourable. That can’t be said of the economic situation as the series has been fighting hard to survive and on a few occasions, its future has been in doubt. It has been shortened from five to four races but until now, it has managed to remain an important part of the preparation for many teams.

 

The race series is no stage race as every team is allowed to field a team from which they can choose their line-up for every race. This means that the start lists for the individual races won’t be known until less than 24 hours before the start, with many teams making last-minute decision about who to race where. There is a classification for riders who do all four races but as very few do the entire schedule, it doesn’t carry much prestige. Instead, the riders pick and choose the races that suit them best as the series has a bit for everyone. Traditionally the first two races have been for the sprinters before the riders headed into the mountains for the final two races but like last year the sprint races will bookend the series in 2016.

 

The course

For the second year in a row, the riders will have the first of two hilly races on the second day when the Trofeo Pollenca-Port de Andratx. Even though it offers the first real climbing of the series, it is not a very hard race though and not nearly as tough last year’s second race which had a summit finish. This year’s course includes three climbs that will bring the riders up to more than 500m of altitude at the highest point but with 31.8km from the top of the final climb to the finish, there will be time to bring things back together for a sprint.

 

At 153km, it is a relatively short race that brings the riders from Pollenca in the northern part of the island to Andratx in the southwestern corner. After a flay circuit that will see the riders briefly ride along the see, the peloton will return to Pollenca after 35.7km of racing. From there they will head into the hilly interior of the island as they go up the category 2 Coll de Femenias (7.5km, 4.5%) which summits at the 50km mark. A shirt flat section then leads to a long descent as the riders hit the flatter part further south.

 

The climbing starts again with 47.5km to go when the riders hit the bottom of the category 3 Coll des Grau (7.1km, 3.6%). Then there’s another short descent and then it’s straight onto the lower slopes of the category 3 Coll de Galilea (3.8km, 4.7%). The top comes 31.8km from the finish and from there it is first a short descent and then a mainly flat section as the riders tackle a short loop that includes a bit of coastal road before they head to the finish in Andratx. There are a few turns in the city, with the final right-hand turn coming 450m from the finish.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders could hardly have asked for better conditions for their opening race and it will be great for Friday too. However, it will be a bit cloudier as more clouds will arrive as the day goes on. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 16 degrees and there will only be a very light breeze from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a tailwind almost all day after they have completed their opening circuit. As they do their small loop in the finale, they turn into a crosswind for the coastal section and then it will be a headwind in the finale.

 

The favourites

There were no surprises in the first opening race as Lotto Soudal again proved their superiority when it comes to lead-outs. André Greipel had the speed to finish it off and unlike in 2015, the German has got his year off to its usual winning start. Interestingly, he had his best year in 2015 when he failed to win anything in his first races and had to wait until the Volta ao Algarve to open his account. Like last year he is aiming for a slower start to be fresher for the key races. Is this an indication that he is again too good too early? Or is it an indication that he will be even more dominant than he was in 2015.

 

Greipel is hungry for more and will line up again for the second race. The course is significantly hillier but it is nowhere near as tough as the one that challenged the riders on the second day in 2016. With a long, flat section leading to the finish, there is plenty of time to set up a reduced bunch sprint and it seems that the climbers will only have one real chance in this year’s Challenge Mallorca, Saturday’s Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana.

 

That is clearly reflected in the line-ups. Most teams have brought in a number of climbers – after all this is still the second hardest race of the series so that’s one of their chances to test their legs – but it will be virtually impossible for most of them to obtain a significant result. Instead, several sprinters eye an extra chance and most of the fast finishers that were in the mix today will be back in action tomorrow. The notable absentee is runner-up Sam Bennett who will save himself for the final race.

 

If the weather had been bad, there was a chance to create a bigger selection in the Trofeo Andratx but there will barely be any wind which will make it much easier for the sprinters to survive. However, there are a number of teams that want to get rid of Greipel and they will definitely try to make things hard.

 

Like today we should get a fast start until the early break is established. However, it is not obvious who’s going to lead the chase. The sprinters are uncertain about the toughness of the final climbs and will be reluctant to ask their teams to take responsibility. The climbers know that it will be hard to make a difference so they are not favourites either. This could create an interesting situation where the early break could actually make it, especially if it is a strong group.

 

On the other hand, it will be no surprise to see teams like Sky, Etixx-QuickStep, Dimension Data, Trek and Movistar ride hard already on the first climb. Knowing that a break can stay away, they may send strong riders up the road already at this early point. This could make for a fast race.

 

The interesting section will be the flat one in the middle. Who’s going to do the work? It depends on the composition of the break and how Greipel is feeling. However, Etixx-QuickStep and Dimension Data should fancy their chances in a reduced sprint so they are likely to do the work. If Greipel is feeling good, Lotto Soudal will also lend a hand and so we expect the early break to be caught.

 

On the final climbs, we can expect a series of attacks and a strong group could get clear. At the same time, some teams want to make the race as hard as possible so the pace will be brutal. However, the climbs are not very steep so it will be hard for a break to get clear and with a long flat section in the end, the most likely outcome is a reduced bunch sprint. The main question is which riders will survive the climbing.

 

Greipel is a solid climber and is always in good form at this time of the year. At his best, he is definitely able to handle these climbs but it remains to be seen if he can already do so at this early point. The first climb is pretty long and as several teams will make the race hard, we expect it to be too hard for him.

 

With no Greipel, the door could be open for fast riders that are not pure sprinters. Etixx-QuickStep are here without their fastest guys but have Matteo Trentin and Gianni Meersman that are both perfectly suited to this kind of lumpy course. Usually, Meersman is the better climbers while Trentin is the fastest and today they did the sprint for the Italian. It is likely to be the same in tomorrow’s race where Trentin hopes to improve on today’s fifth place.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have riders like Meersman, Yves Lampaert, Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar and Meersman  that are all fast and good climbers. This means that they will probably have the strongest train in the end. In a reduced group, Trentin is usually one of the fastest and with the best lead-out, he is our favourite.

 

Dimension Data planned to do the sprint for Youcef Reguigui today but as they got lost in the finale, it was lead-out man Edvald Boasson Hagen who sprinted to third. The Norwegian is always very good at this time of the season and tomorrow there is no doubt that he is the man for the sprint as he is the only sprinter in the team. That means that he won’t have much team support but he knows how to position himself well. He is not able to win pure bunch sprints but in a small group he is one of the favourites.

 

We won’t rule Greipel out. If he can handle the climbs, Jens Debusschere and Jürgen Roelandts will also be there in the end and then he will have an excellent train to set him up. They are in a class of their own in a big field so in a smaller group they will be unrivalled. The fatigue will take the sting out of Greipel’s legs but if he is there in the end, he will be virtually unbeatable.

 

Today’s sprint was a bit of disaster for Trek as Edward Theuns could only manage 16th. Tomorrow they will be supporting Fabio Felline or Jasper Stuyven as Theuns will skip the race. Both like this kind of reduced bunch sprint and they have plenty of firepower to set them up. Stuyven is the fastest and Felline is the best climber but the Belgian should be able to handle the challenges. There are faster riders than him but if the lead-out works, he will have a chance.

 

If the race is too tough for Greipel, Lotto Soudal can play the Jens Debusschere card. The Belgian is a better climber than his captain and is capable of winning this kind of sprints. He will have Jurgen Roelandts to set him up for the sprint and this can make all the difference. If it is too tough for Debusschere, Roelandts will take his chance but he probably doesn’t have the speed to win.

 

Two years ago Ramunas Navardauskas really proved his sprinting potential but things didn’t work out for him in 2015. However, he sprinted to third at Worlds and with a fourth place today, he seems to be back on track. He is positioning himself poorly but can now count on Matti Breschel to set him up. That probably made a difference in today’s race. He is a good climber and even though he is never very good at this time of the year, he should be in the mix.

 

Alejandro Valverde usually wins at least one race in Mallorca and he probably has his eyes on Saturday’s race. However, he may test his legs tomorrow too and we won’t be surprised if he goes on the attack on the final climbs. If he makes it into a small group that stays away, he will probably be the fastest. He also has a chance in a reduced bunch sprint but we doubt that he will take any risks.

 

Team Roth didn’t achieve a result today but tomorrow they will be reinforced with their captain, Andrea Pasqualon. The Italian is a specialist in reduced bunch sprints and achieved some notable results during the 2015 season. This race suits him really well and he has the speed to mix it up with the best. However, it remains to be seen what kind of form he has.

 

For other fast finishers that could potentially survive the climbs, look to Jonas Van Genechten, Vicente Reynes, Marc Sarreau and Lorrenzo Manzin.

 

For late attacks on the final climb, keep an eye on Michal Kwiatkowski, Felline, Tiesj Benoot, Zdenek Stybar, Giovanni Visconti, Sergey Shilov and Jose Goncalves who are all fast enough to win a sprint from a small breakaway.

 

***** Matteo Trentin

**** Edvald Boasson Hagen, André Greipel

*** Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, Ramunas Navardauskas

** Alejandro Valverde, Andrea Pasqualon, Gianni Meersman, Michal Kwiatkowski

* Fabio Felline, Jonas Van Genechten, Tiesj Benoot, Zdenek Stybar, Giovanni Visconti, Sergey Shilov, Jose Goncalves