While Nacer Bouhanni has dominated the sprints and still tries to make up for Saturday’s disappointments, the GC riders have tried to stay safe in the first two stages of the race. The biggest favourites have all survived two relatively calm days without any time losses and now it is finally time for them to show whether they have what it takes to win the most competitive one-week race of the week when the tackles its first – albeit rather easy – mountaintop finish in La Molina.

 

The course

The first two stages have had lots of climbs but for the GC riders, they have not been hard enough to make a selection. The riders that are expected to battle for the overall victory will have to wait for Wednesday’s first mountaintop finish before making their first moves. For the third year in a row, La Molina will play host to a big summit finish in the Pyrenees and last year it largely decided the race. With another mountaintop finish coming in stage 4, it will be less decisive in 2016 but it will still be one of the two key days.

 

The stage has the same finishing climb as the two previous editions but most of the rest of the stage has been altered as the riders now do the final climb twice and the finish line has been moved slightly. Like last year, the organizers have shortened the flat section between the two final climbs to make things a bit tougher.

 

At 172.1km, it is shorter than it was 12 months ago and brings the riders from Girona to the summit of the La Molina climb. The first part of the stage is completely flat as the riders spend most of the day travelling in a northwesterly direction towards the Pyrenees. The early highlight is the first intermediate sprint which comes at the 42.4km mark. 10.2 later, the climbing hostilities start when the riders hit the category 1 Alt de Coubet (10km, 5.5%, max. 10%) after which the riders continue to climb  for a few kilometres to reach the top of the uncategorized Alt de Canes. A fast descent leads to the final intermediate sprint in Ripoll and a long, gradual uphill section.

 

With 62.1km to go, the riders will hit the bottom of the category 1 Alt de Toses (6.3km, 7%, max.10%) which is actually the real top of the final climb to La Molina. They will be descending close by the finishing line as they go through La Molina where they hit the finishing circuit which they will complete twice. Having reached the city of Alp, they will turn around to climb up the category 1 climb for the first time. They want go all the way to the finish though as they will only do the first 10.1km which average 4.5% and have a maximum of 8%. From here they will go back the same descent to reach Alp again with 25.2km to go. From here they will go up the climb again and this time they will go all the way to the finish. The climb is 11.1km long with an average gradient of 4.5% and maximum ramps 8% but it is uphill for a little bit longer.

 

The final climb is a bit deceptive as the top actually comes with 3km to go. Then next 1000m are slightly downhill before the road again kicks up for the final 2km, with the final kilometre averaging 7%. There are several sweeping turns inside the final 1500m but the real challenge is the very sharp U-turn just 100m from the line.

 

The descent from Alt de Toses and the subsequent climb of La Molina has been used every year since 2014. In 2014, they did a big flat loop between after the descent from Toses until they climbed back to La Molina. Last year they did the same finale as they will do this year but the novelty is that the riders will climb to La Molina twice.

 

In 2014 Rodriguez showed that he is perfectly suited to this climb when he first responded to Chris Froome’s many attacks before he made one of his trademark accelerations to win the stage with a 5-second advantage over Alberto Contador while Nairo Quintana followed four seconds later. However, no less than 48 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner which says a lot about the easy nature of the climb. Last year Tejay van Garderen exploited the fact that he was out of GC contention to attack from afar and while the GC riders battled for the overall win, he took the stage victory. Richie Porte had initially been dropped by Contador but fought his way back to pass the Spaniard and take second on the stage. In 2001, a Vuelta a Espana stage finished here and it was Santiago Blanco who won from a breakaway while only Jose Maria Jimenez managed to escape on the final ascent, finishing 4 seconds ahead of an 18-rider group that contained all the main contenders.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The mountain stages in the Volta a Catalunya have often been marred by weather which has prevented TV producers from making live images and in 2012 the big mountain stage was even neutralized at the midpoint. This year we won’t have such issues as the weather in the Pyrenees is great.

 

Wednesday will be a sunny day with a maximum temperature of 5 degrees in Alp at the bottom of the final climb. It will be very windy as there will be a relatively strong wind from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind but there will be crosswind on the two first climbs. On the final circuit it will mainly be a cross-headwind in the first part and a cross-tailwind on the final climb. It will mainly be a tailwind in the final 3km.

 

The favourites

If anyone was doubting whether Nacer Bouhanni was the fastest rider in this race, those critics must have been silenced. The Frenchman was again clearly the fastest in today’s sprint. It was equally important for Bouhanni to again get confirmation that his train is working very well. The best trains are not here but it must be reassuring for Bouhanni that they can do so well even without their best line-up as they are missing key riders like Cyril Lemoine, Julien Simon and most importantly Christophe Laporte here. In fact, Geoffrey Soupe has been doing so good lead-outs here that it must be very hard for Bouhanni to decide whether he wants Laporte or Soupe in the final position in front of him.

 

However, Bouhanni will now have to step into the background for the next two stages. Tomorrow it is finally time for us to find out who’s going to battle for the overall victory. Tomorrow’s stage is one of the most highly anticipated of the entire spring and it will give us the first indications of the climbing hierarchy in 2016.

 

However, it is important to remember that the final climb is an easy one. The average gradient is only 4.5% and it never gets steeper than 8%. Very often climbs with this kind of average gradient is come down to a sprint from a relatively big group and there is no doubt that this climb is much more suited to puncheurs than true climbers.

 

Nonetheless, the grand tour stars will be eager to battle it out. They know that the real battle will come in Thursday’s queen stage but they will be keen to test their legs and take this first opportunity. If this had been a grand tour stage with lots of mountains yet to come, they would probably take a conservative approach to this kind of climb but tomorrow they will go all out as it’s an important test this early in the season.

 

To make this race selective, the stage has to be made hard and this is definitely what Sky plan to do. Tinkoff and Movistar also want it to be tough but none of them are nearly as strong as the Brits who are here with what is almost their A team. We can expect a fast start to the stage with a bit of aggression as it is usually the case in mountain stages but most know that breakaways will have much better chances later in the race. Hence, we expect the break to be formed relatively early as they only real incentive for the attackers is to go for the mountains jersey.

 

Cofidis will do nothing to defend the jersey and instead we expect Sky to control things all day. Movistar and maybe Tinkoff will lend them a hand and then they will go as hard as they can on all the climbs. That will make it impossible for the break to stay away and it should come down to a battle between the best on the final climb.

 

The finale will also be dominated by Sky who will set a fast pace right from the bottom. The first kilometres aren’t very steep so it will probably be a waiting game until we reach the final 5km where the differences can be made.

 

There are a number of possible scenarios. One is that Sky ride tempo until Froome makes his lethal attack close to the summit. If he is able to distance everybody, it will of course be a solo win. However, this kind of climb could very well be a tactical affair. It is hard to make a difference on these gradients and if Froome, Contador, Quintana, Aru and Porte fail to drop each other, an outsider may attack. That’s what happened in stage 4 in 2014 when Froome, Contador, Rodriguez and Quintana all looked at each other. This allowed Tejay van Garderen and Romain Bardet to rejoin them and make a surprise move that allowed them to take first and second on the stage.

 

Another option for Sky is to use their strength in numbers. Sports director Nicolas Portal has said that Geraint Thomas and Wout Poels will also get their chance. Movistar and Tinkoff don’t have their best teams here so who’s going to bring Thomas or Poels back if they attack? This could force Contador and Quintana to chase themselves and make things easier for Froome in the end. In general, this stage is a lot more unpredictable than one would think and there is definitely no guarantee that this stage will just be won by the strongest rider.

 

Nonetheless, we have Chris Froome as our favourite. In both 2014 and 2015, he arrived in Spain on the back of a recent bout of illness that had cost him the chance to ride Tirreno-Adriatico. Hence, he has never been at his best in this race. He was solid in 2014 where he finished in the top 10 but last year ended as a real disaster as he finished 71st, his worst performance in a stage race for years.

 

In 2016, he has finally had a smooth build-up to the race and there is no reason to suggest that he won’t be firing on all cylinders. It will be our first chance to really gauge him this season as he has only done the Herald Sun Tour which was way too easy for him. The level was too low to offer him many challenges and he easily won the race. Since then he has been training in South African so he arrives at the race with less racing rhythm than most of his rivals. However, Froome has always proved that he is able to reach great condition in training and he has always been very strong right from the start of the year. Furthermore, he has won the Criterium du Dauphiné on the back of a training block on two occasions. He claims to be feeling good and when that’s the case he will be hard to beat.

 

Froome has proved on numerous occasions that he is the best climber in the world and he has really only been beatable in the final part of grand tours when he has had an incident-free build-up. He may be locked in a tactical battle but that can only benefit him. If one of his teammates attack, he will have a free ride to the top and then he will be hard to beat. On paper, the climb is too easy to make a difference but he has proved that he can win on this kind of climb in the past. Among the best climbers, he is the most explosive and only really has to fear Rodriguez in a sprint. Last year Porte proved that it is possible to drop Contador even on this climb and so Froome is our favourite.

 

On this kind of climb, it will probably only be Alberto Contador who has the skills to potentially match Froome. The Spaniard has done nothing to hide that he is really fired up for his final pro season and he aims at going out with a bang. Everyone knows that Contador can make sacrifices like no other and there is little doubt that he has done everything right during the winter. That has been evident in the first races. He had a surprising bad day in Algarve but then went on to crush the opposition on the Alto do Malhao. In Paris-Nice he was clearly the best climber but La Madone d’Utelle was simply too easy for him. If it hadn’t been for the cancellation of stage 3, there is little doubt that he would have taken the overall win comfortably.

 

After Paris-Nice, Contador told Cadena Ser that he was very pleased with his feelings and felt like this year could be like 2014 when he felt better than ever and completely dominated the spring. If that assessment is true, he will be very strong in Catalonia whose course suits him a lot better than Paris-Nice. Until now, he has never been able to beat Froome when the Brit has been at 100% but that’s not the case yet. While Froome will be uncertain about his form, we know that Contador is riding at a high level. He may have been a bit ill but it is probably just one of the usual Contador games. Based on his performance in Paris-Nice, Contador will be ready to strike if Froome shows the slightest sign of weakness – even on a climb that doesn’t really suit him.

 

As said, Sky have strength in number and there is a very big chance that they will make use of it. Geraint Thomas is in excellent condition and there it would be a good idea to let him hit out early. This kind of relatively easy climb is tailor-made for the Welshman as he proved in both Algarve and Paris-Nice. It is hard to see who’s going to bring him back if he attacks and it could very well be another victory for the in-form Sky rider.

 

Wout Poels is the third Sky card. The Dutchman generally prefers much steeper climbs and this climb doesn’t suit him at all. Usually, he would not really be a contender here but this time he has the benefit of his team. He will probably be less marked than Thomas and so may get more room if he hits out early. He has been riding extremely well all year and claims to be feeling very good. His strong team means that he could win this stage.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is a former winner of this stage which is no big surprise. The Spaniard is clearly the fastest of the pre-race favourites and usually comes into form at this time of the year. This race is always his first big goal and he claims to be feeling pretty good despite suffering from illness in Algarve. We never got the chance to see what he could do in Tirreno where he crashed a couple of times but he should be up there in this race. We doubt that he will be good enough to follow the best but if they can’t drop each other, he will be ready to win a sprint.

 

Fabio Aru decided to skip Paris-Nice to avoid a heavy racing burden ahead of his big objectives. He hasn’t raced since Volta ao Algarve where he surprised himself by being stronger than expected. He was second in the queen stage behind Contador and in general he has been much better than usual in the early part of the year. That confirms his steady progression and we can expect him to be even better in 2016.

 

Aru hasn’t had great results in March in the past but that will probably be different this time around. With a focus on the Tour de France, he can allow himself to reach a first peak now and this is likely to be evident in Catalonia. He is faster than most of the favourites in an uphill sprint and this means that he will be contender here.

 

Defending champion Richie Porte was the best GC rider in this stage in 2015 and he will be keen to repeat it. He has been sick since Paris-Nice so his form is a bit uncertain. However, that was also the case before Paris-Nice where he got better and better and he ended the race in really good condition. He has always done pretty well on this kind of climb and he knows how to take advantage of the tactical battle to take off if the likes of Contador and Froome are watching each other.

 

Of course Nairo Quintana also deserves a mention. The Colombian is making an unusually late debut in Europe. He rode in San Luis in January and did the Colombian Championships in February but apart from that he has just been training in his home country. However, he has proved several times that he can get into top condition by having that approach and he has done nothing to hide that he is aiming for victory in Catalonia. Howeverm compared to his two key rivals, there is usually a bigger difference between his Tour de France and spring level and he has never been firing on all cylinders at this time of the year. Furthermore, this climb doesn’t really suit him and he will probably have to ride conservatively while waiting for Thursday’s stage. Hence, he is less likely to win here.

 

As said, there are many riders who will be ready to grab a chance if the favourites are unable to distance each other. Tejay van Garderen hit out early last year to win the stage in 2015 and in 2014 he benefited from the tactics to win another mountain stage here. He will be less marked and may get some freedom. He has improved his climbing massively and should be close enough to the best to make a surprise attack.

 

Daniel Martin is always showing the first signs of form here. He is never at his best yet but he is always at a competitive level. This is a great climb for him as he is very punchy and he is never afraid of attacking early. He can win the stage by riding aggressively or if it comes down to a sprint.

 

Romain Bardet has the same kind of aggressive approach and he has been climbing really well this year. Paris-Nice didn’t really suit him but he was at a decent level and he should be much better here. He won’t win the stage in a battle with the best but he will be ready to attack. Ilnur Zakarin will have similar plans and he proved in Paris-Nice that his form is great.

 

Finally, we will point to Michael Woods who was so impressive in the Tour Down Under. He hasn’t raced since then and claims that he is only here to support Rigoberto Uran. However, this is a great climb for the punchy Canadian and people probably won’t be concerned if he takes off in the finale

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Geraint Thomas

Outsiders: Wout Poels, Joaquim Rodriguez, Richie Porte, Fabio Aru

Jokers: Nairo Quintana, Tejay van Garderen, Daniel Martin, Romain Bardet, Ilnir Zakarin, Michael Woods