At a time when the rich Spanish stage racing scene is only a shadow of its former self, a rare piece of good news have emerged from Valencia. The Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana – once one of the most important preparation races for the season – is back on the calendar after a 7-year absence and the riders have celebrated its welcome return by gathering a star-studded field in Southern Spain where an exciting course will set the scene for the first big European battle between the true stage race specialists.

 

While Italy and Belgium has always been mostly about one-day racing, Spain was once known as the hotbed of stage racing and almost every region had its own major tour. However, the economic crisis has hit the country hard and most of the races have now disappeared. Whenever a race has had to be cancelled, the organizers have promised to try to make it a short absence but apart from the Vuelta a Asturias which managed to return after a one-year break, no one has had any success.

 

For once, however, good news have come from the Iberian Peninsula as the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana will return to the calendar for the first time since 2008. Held in Southern Spain in mostly good weather conditions, the race was once a key preparation race for classics and stage race riders and it has been missed by many. Former Vuelta winner Angel Casero and his brother have been the driving forces and they have managed to find the funding to put it back on the calendar in its original five-day formet. Hence, it is no surprise that its return has been welcomed by almost everyone and it has attracted an impressive line-up for its first edition.

 

During its absence, the Middle East has taken over the position as the preferred preparation ground, with the triptych of the Dubai Tour, Tour of Qatar and Tour of Oman offering a bit of everything for the riders to get ready for the big goals. However, the return of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana now means that Spain has a valid alternative as the Challenge Mallorca, the race in Valencia, the one-day races in Murcia and Almeria and the Ruta del Sol now form a solid racing block. If one adds the Volta ao Algarve, the Iberian Peninsula now has the most impressive February schedule and that has clearly had an impact on the planning for most teams. For the first time in years, the races in the Middle East have been unable to attract their usual strong fields and this year most of the stars have clearly opted for Spain or France as the best way to get ready.

 

The Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana has had very mixed courses. The area has plenty of challenging terrain but at this time of the year it is always risky to send the riders into the high mountains. Hence, the previous editions have not always been overly hard and it has even been won by Alessandro Petacchi in 2005. However, it has mostly been dominated by stage race riders, with Alejandro Valverde winning two editions in 2004 and 2007. Ruben Plaza is the latest winner in 2008.

 

However, the new organizers have decided to make it unusually tough and this year’s edition will include two mountain stage and a time trial. This means that it is a race for the true stage race specialists and it will be the first big European showdown between the riders that specialize in multi-day events.

 

The course

As said, the organizers have put together a very testing course that sees the riders tackle harder and longer climbs than they usually do at this time of the year. As the race will kick off with a 16.6km time trial, it is like a mini grand tour and should suit the grand tour riders that have found some good form right from the start. In addition to the three GC stages, the race offers two opportunities for the sprinters.

 

 

Stage 1:

The race kicks off in spectacular surroundings in the coastal city of Benicassim where the riders will take off in a 16.6km time trial that will create the first time gaps. The first part in the city is mainly flat and takes place along a straight coastal road but as the riders leave the city, the terrain gets more undulating. There is even a small category 3 climb (2.1km 5.1%) which summits 3.6km from the finish in Oropesa del Mart. The final 2.5km are mainly flat.

 

The long straight roads in the early part of the stage should suit the really powerful riders but the inclusion of a climb should allow the climbers to limit their losses. In general, the stage suits the versatile time triallists who will be able to gain time before we head into the mountains.

 

 

Stage 2:

The first big battle between the climbers comes already on the second day when the riders will tackle 163.3km from the coastal city of Castellon to a summit finish on the category 1 climb of Alto de Fredes. The first part is mainly flat and only includes the category 2 Puerto La Mirona (5.31km, 2.6%) at the 69km mark. However, there will be nowhere to hide on the final climb (15.18km, 4.6%). The average gradient is slightly deceptive as it includes three 12% sections, with two of them coming in the final third, but it stays around 4-6% for most of the time. The final kilometre is the steepest at an average of 7.1%.

 

This is the first big summit finish of the European season and should be the scene of a battle between the climbers. However, the time gaps on a 4-5% climb are rarely very big and we could see a rather big group battle it out for the win in the final kilometre which is slightly steeper.

 

 

Stage 3:

The sprinters will have their first chance in stage 3 which brings the riders over 173.5km from Sagunto to Alzira. Both cities are close to the coast and the main city of Valencia and the stage consists of an inland trip to get around the major city before heading for the finish. After 22.52km, the riders will reach the summit of the category 3 climb of Alto del Oronet (5.39km, 5.0%, max. 9%) but otherwise it is an almost completely flat affair. There are a few corners inside the final kilometre, with a final U-turn coming 660m from the line.

 

The wind could play a role in this stage but it is most likely to be a welcome chance for the GC riders to rest a bit and the sprinters to battle it out in a big bunch sprint.

 

 

Stage 4:

The GC will be decided on the fourth day which probably offers the best chance for the climbers to make a difference. There is no summit finish but the famous and brutally steep wall of Xorret de Cati comes just 2.09km from the finish and the final kilometres are mostly downhill. It is a well-known finale that has been used in the Vuelta twice in recent years and it has always been the scene of a spectacular battle.

 

The short 141.3km stage brings the riders from Orihuela to Xorret de Cati and includes a flat start while the riders approach the mountains. The terrain gradually gets harder as the category 3 Alto de La Garganta (7.1km, 2.9%), category 2 Alto de Maigmo (8.41, 3.9%) and category 2 Canali (6.69km, 4.5%) come at the 45km, 75.81km and 101.22km marks respectively. The final climb precedes a flat section that leads to the final category 1 climb which is 4900m long but averages a massive 9.1%. Importantly, the first kilometre is relatively easy but from there the gradient is mostly double-digit. The climb includes a steep 22% just after the midpoint and 17% sections inside the final kilometre. The final part is a fast, non-technical descent until the riders reach the final flat section that includes three late turns.

 

The final climb is really brutal and has created relatively big time gaps in the Vuelta where it was last used in 2010 when David Moncoutie won from a breakaway. Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez and Igor Anton arrived together and gained more than half a minute on most of their rivals. One year early Gustavo Cesar Veloso won from a breakaway while Alejandro Valverde, Robert Gesink, Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans put more than 30 seconds into their nearest GC rivals. Eladio Jimenez won the stage both in 2000 and 2004.

 

It is undoubtedly the hardest stage of the race and the one that will create the biggest time gaps. The relatively short climb and steep gradient suit the punchy climbers more than the diesel engines and they will try to maximize their gains on the day when the race will be decided.

 

 

Stage 5:

The race heads to the main city of Valencia on the final day when the riders will tackle a short 120.6km sprint stage. In the first part, they will head into the hills to tackle the category 3 Alto Oronet (5.48km, 4.9%) after 61.14km of racing but then they head back to the flat terrain in the city centre. The stage ends with 10 laps of a short 2.5km finishing circuit that is completely flat and doesn’t involve any major technical challenges, with two sweeping right-hand turns coming inside the final 500m.

 

Like most other stage races, the final day is reserved for the sprinters and this kind of criterium-like finale suits the really fast guys perfectly. They haven’t had many opportunities in this race so they will be keen to end it on a high while the GC riders will try to stay safe.

 

 

The weather

One of the great attractions of this race is the fact that there is a solid chance of sunny conditions. The riders won’t be disappointed as the temperature in the city of Valencia will be between 17 and 21 degrees every day and there will be lots of sunshine and no rain. This means that there should be no risk of modifications of the mountains stages.

 

There will be very little wind in the first three stages but the final two days will be windier. On Sunday, a rather strong wind will be blowing but as most of the stage takes place in the city, it is unlikely to play any role.

 

The favourites

With two mountain stages, a time trial and two sprint stages, the new version of the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana is like a mini grand tour that has something for everyone. The sprinters will battle it out for the win in stages 3 and 5 and as there won’t be much win on Friday and the roads aren’t exposed on Sunday, those stages are unlikely to play any role in the GC. Instead, it will all come down to a battle between the true stage race specialists in the three key stages.

 

The profile could indicate that stage 2 is the hardest stage as it is the only summit finish but as the final climb is pretty easy, the time gaps between the best riders will be small. Instead, the climbers will have their best chance in stage 4 and Xorret del Cati has traditionally been able to create bigger differences. However, it is a relatively short climb and so we are not talking about minutes. Furthermore, there will be no time bonuses for the climbers to pick up.

 

A good time triallist can gain quite a bit of time on the first stage and if he is also a reasonable climber, he will have a decent chance to defend himself. However, the gradients on the Xorret de Cati are horrible and the bigger guys will suffer when the punchy lightweight climbers go full gas. This makes it a pretty open affair where a wide range of GC riders can be in the mix.

 

Sky and Astana go into this race with formidable line-ups and both teams have several potential winners of the race. Movistar also have a solid roster and those three teams are likely to dictate things. However, early-season races are always very special as no one really knows how everybody is going and that makes them very hard to predict – even for the teams themselves. This opens the door for surprises as form is more important than actual skills at this time of the year.

 

One of the many Sky captains is Wout Poels who is making his 2016 debut in Spain. The Dutchman has traditionally been pretty strong at the start of the year and this year he will be very motivated. He had hoped to be the team leader in the Giro but has been asked to support Chris Froome in the Tour. This means that he won’t get many personal opportunities and he will be keen to grab his chances whenever he gets one.

 

This race is an opportunity for him and with his main goal being the Tour, he can allow himself to target some of the early-season races. He is no TT specialist and there is little doubt that he will lose time on the first day. However, he has the punch to do well in the explosive finish in stage 2 and most important he is excellent on very steep gradients – just remember how strong he was in the steepest finales of the 2011 Vuelta. Last year he proved that he has stepped up his level massively and he was the best climber in the Abu Dhabi Tour while also delivering impressive performances in the Tour. On paper, he is one of the best climbers in this race so it will be all about limiting his losses in the time trial. We expect him to be at a high level right from the start and he is our favourite to win the race.

 

His biggest rivals could be a teammate. Leopold König looked very strong in Mallorca where he stayed with the best in the hardest races while working for Michal Kwiatkowski. That proves that he is in very good condition and like Poels he will be keen to grab a rare personal opportunity. He is a very good time triallist and among the GC contenders, he is one of the very best. The punchy nature of the climbing stages don’t suit him really well but as he can expect to be ahead after the TT, he just has to defend himself to win the race.

 

Fabio Aru is the only grand tour winner in the race and many will be keen to see how he is going. However, he has rarely been very good at the start of the year and he has mostly started his season much later. Things could be different in 2016 through as he is aiming for the Tour and so can allow himself to target some of the week-long stage races in the beginning of the year. This probably explains the changes to his schedule and we can expect him to be stronger than usual. He has improved his time trialling a lot and on paper he is the best climber in this race. He had preferred the climbing to be harder but he has proved that he is strong on steep gradients.

 

Ion Izagirre hopes to build on his progress in week-long stage races and 2016 could easily be a breakthrough for him. Last year he won the Tour de Pologne and was third in Pais Vasco – a race he might even have won if he was not riding for Nairo Quintana. Xorret de Cati is like a Basque climb so it obviously suits him pretty well and he is an excellent time triallist, probably the best of the GC riders. He is likely to be allowed to ride defensively on the climbs and if he had been at his best, he would have been our favourite. He was at a solid level in Mallorca but he didn’t shine while riding in the breakaway in the hardest race. His form may not be good enough to win the race but if he has improved since Mallorca, he will hard to beat.

 

If Aru is not at his best, Diego Rosa will get his chance to lead Astana. The Italian was impressive in the final part of 2015 when he won Milan-Turin and rode an excellent Il Lombardia. There is no reason to believe that he won’t be even stronger in 2016 and he is usually starting his seasons very well. He likes these relatively short climbs but he will be set back in the time trial. Unfortunately, he may lose too much time on the opening day but if he has the legs of last autumn, he could dominate the mountains.

 

Benat Intxausti is the third Sky leader in the race. The Basque is suited to this race as he is a good climber and a great time triallist, especially on this kind of hilly course. Last year he was flying at this time of the year as he finished third in the Ruta del Sol but this year he doesn’t seem to be at the same level. In Mallorca, his team decided to chase him down in the hardest race and this indicates that his form is not at his best. On the other hand he is one of the best time triallists in this race and even though he is not at Izagirre’s level, his time gains on the first day could allow him to win the race.

 

Bob Jungels makes his Etixx-QuickStep debut here and based on his performances in 2015, he will be very good right from the start. He will be one of the big favourites for the time trial and if he can beat Vasil Kiryienka, he could find himself as an early leader. The relatively easy climb on stage 2 suits him well but Xorret de Cati could turn out to be a bit too steep for a big guy like him. We doubt that he will be able to follow the light climbers on the penultimate day but if he can limit his losses, his TT gains may be enough to win the race.

 

The second Movistar leader is Jesus Herrada who has recovered from his crash at the end of 2016. He rode really well in the Tour Down Under and now hopes to grab his opportunity here. He is a good time triallist who should be able to gain time on the first day but he probably doesn’t climb well enough to win the race.

 

Cannondale go into the race with Pierre Rolland and Davide Formolo. The former is never good at this time of the year but the latter has a decent chance. He had an excellent 2014 season but for some reason he never reached the same lofty heights in 2015. Italy hopes that he can again start to build on his huge potential and this race will be the first indication. If he is at his former level, he could dominate the mountains but unfortunately his time losses in the time trial will probably be too big.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is one of the biggest names in this race but we will be surprised if he is a contender for the win. The Spaniard is never good in February and always needs a few races to reach his best level. Furthermore, the time trial will cost him plenty of time and he needs to be at his best to gain it back. The two climbing stages suit him really well as punch and explosiveness are two key features but it is probably a bit too early for him.

 

Finally, Dario Cataldo deserves a mention. The Italian is making his season debut so his condition is highly uncertain. He is rarely good at this time of the year so we don’t have any real expectations. On the other hand, the course suits him really well as he is one of the best time triallists on this kind of course and a solid climber for these finales. If he is better than usual, he will be a GC contender.

 

***** Wout Poels

**** Leopold König, Fabio Aru

*** Ion Izagirre, Diego Rosa, Benat Intxausti

** Bob Jungels, Jesus Herrada, Davide Formolo, Joaquim Rodriguez, Dario Cataldo

* Vasil Kiryienka, Mikel Nieve, Luis Leon Sanchez, Victor de la Parte, Jose Herrada, Dayer Quintana, Alberto Losada, Matvei Mamykin, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro, David Belda