The GC riders all stayed safe on what proved to be a less selective stage than the roadbook indicated but from now on there will be no room for recovery as the final three stages can all change the GC. Before we get to the two most important stages in the remaining part of the race, the riders will return to the brutally steep Alto de Aia on a day that could very well see a breakaway come away with the win and some of the GC contenders lose ground.

The course

One of the most feared climbs in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is the brutally steep Alto de Aia. It was first used in 1999 when it hosted a mountain time trial and since then it has been climbed in 2008, 2010 and 2015. Last year it played a new role as both the penultimate stage and the final time trial ended very close to the top. This year it is back on the course but unlike last year it will be the well-known finish with the flat run-in to Orio.

The fourth stage will bring the riders over 165km from Lesaka to Orio. The first part is completely flat as the riders travel to the coast, passing through Irun where Alberto Contador’s famous steak stems from. Then the riders will hit some very famous terrain as they will tackle two of the landmark climbs of the Clasica San Sebastian which – for some reason – have rarely featured in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. First they will tackle the famous category 1 Alto de Jaizkibel  (8.4km, 5.24%) whose summit comes at the 29.4km mark and then they will descend to the category 3 Alto de Arkale (3.3km, 5.45%) just 18.4km later.

Unlike in the Basque one-day race, they won’t head to San Sebastian and instead they will travel along mainly flat roads to the finish in Orio which they will reach after 85.5km of racing. This is when the serious part of the stage starts as the riders will tackle the final part of the stage in the opposite direction, climbing the brutally steep category 2 Alto de Aia (4.6km, 5.87%)from its easy side. The top comes after 100km of racing and then there will be a final easy section that leads to the first intermediate sprint at the 123.5km mark.

The real finale starts when the riders go up the category 2 Alto de Garate (2.8km, 9%) which has a very steep final 800m of 13.38% and whose summit comes at the 131.5km mark, leading to the second intermediate sprint. The descent is followed by the brutal double climb back to the top of the Alto de Aia. First the riders will tackle a category 2 climb (3.4km, 8.38%) which is pretty regular and whose top comes with 17.4km to go. Then a short descends leads to the final category 2 wall (1.8km, 12.22%) whose summit comes just 13.1km from the finish. It’s a brutal climb, with the gradient staying between 11.5% and 13.5%, the steepest part coming near the top. From there, it is a descent to the final intermediate sprint four kilometres from the line and then there’s a small little 7% climb of 1km. It ends with 1200m to go and then 700m of descending lead to the flat final 500m. The final challenge is a roundabout at the bottom of the descent with 500m to go.

Laurent Jalabert won the time trial when Alto de Aia was used for that in 1999 while Michael Boogerd won the morning stage to Orio. In 2008, Damiano Cunego won a 6-rider sprint while Alberto Contador sealed the overall win in the time trial one day later. In 2010, Joaquim Rodriguez made a successful long-distance attack to hold off Alejandro Valverde, Samuel Sanchez and Chris Horner who attacked on the Alto de Aia while Horner won the time trial one day later. Last year Mikel Landa emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Tom Dumoulin won the time trial on the steep climb one day later.

The weather

The riders enjoyed some nice sunshine in today’s stage but unfortunately that was just a brief respite from the cold weather. Thursday is forecasted to be very wet as 15mm of rain are expected in Orio. There’s a 50 chance of rain throughout the entire stage and it will be relatively cold with a maximum temperature of 12 degrees.

Furthermore, it will be very windy as there will be a strong wind from a northwesterly direction. This means that it will first be a headwind and then a crosswind for most of the stage until they get to Orio. On the final circuits, it will again mainly be a crosswind. In the finale, it will be a cross-headwind in the flat run-in to Orio.

The favourites

Stage 3 turned out to be just as unpredictable as we had forecasted yesterday and even though the stage was less selective than the numbers in the roadbook had indicated, it turned out that it was impossible to control things. Orica-GreenEDGE were again the big losers and are now left wondering whether it was a good idea to use such an aggressive strategy. Michael Albasini and Adam Yates burnt their matches by going on the attack and their energy would probably have been used a bit better if they had been able to lend Sky a hand in the chase.

Orica-GreenEDGE have won a stage in this race every year since they were formed in 2012 but it seems that their streak is about to end as they are running out of options. They have no chance in the time trial and there are only two road stages left. There is little chance that Simon Gerrans will be able to take a sprint win so the only chance is to go on the attack. The GC riders all want to win the queen stage so unless the Yates brothers can turn things around there, the only real chance comes tomorrow.

However, stage 4 is a very good stage for teams with ambitions to get a win. Alto de Aia is a real beast and history shows that the best riders can really make a difference here. This means that this is not a day for the fast finishers and they will do nothing to control the stage. At the same time, it is not a stage that will be a real target for the GC riders. We will definitely see a battle between the best climbers in the finale but this is not a stage where they will be aiming for victory. This means that there is a very good chance that a breakaway will make it. That happened last year in the very similar stage which finished close to the top of the Alto de Aia and it was local hero Mikel Landa who rode to victory.

Everybody knows that this is the big day for a breakaway and many teams are out of the GC battle so they will do their utmost to join the break. Hence, it will probably be a big fight right from the start and it will take time for the early break to be formed. There is a big chance that we will get to the Jaizkibel before the break has been established and if that’s the case, it will be a very strong break that ultimately goes clear.

What happens in the remaining part of the stage depends on the composition of the break. If the break goes clear on a climb, it may contain riders that are not that far behind in GC. This will force the GC teams, mainly Sky and possibly Tinkoff, to control the break and this could open the door for the GC riders to decide the stage on the Alto de Aia. If there are no dangerous riders, it is hard to see that a single team will do the work to bring it back together. Only if an ambitious team has missed out may we see a dedicated chase effort. In that case, the break will probably stay away. As Sky will probably be attentive in the early part of the stage, we expect the break to make it.

Regardless of the break’s fate, the GC riders will battle it out in the finale. The Alto de Aia is hard enough to make a difference as it happened when the same finale was used in both 2008 and 2010.  There is no doubt that the GC riders will test each other here and we could see important time gaps. However, there is still time for a regrouping and we probably won’t see a lone rider arrive at the finish. In the past small groups of 3-6 riders have arrived at the finish and this could again be the scenario here. Hence, it is a not a day to win the race but it is a day when you can definitely lose everything.

As said, we expect a breakaway to make it. To win here, you need to be a very good climber as the break is likely to be established on the Jaizkibel and you need excellent climbing legs to drop your rivals on the Alto de Aia. However, riders that are close on GC won’t be given any kind of freedom so the stage is only open for riders that have lost time. A lot of good climbers lost time today and this indicates that many have taken it easy to be allowed to go on the attack tomorrow.

Last year Tim Wellens was agonizingly close to the win in this stage but he came up short in the battle against Landa. There is little doubt that the Belgian has eyed tomorrow’s stage as his big goal for this race. He never had any GC ambitions here as he just wanted to focus on his preparation for the classics but has done nothing to hide that he wants to go on the attack along the way. He has lost time every day which indicates that he has taken it easy, just as he did last year when he attacked in this stage.

Wellens has proved his classic in this terrain on numerous occasions. He won the final stage of Paris-Nice, he has won the queen stage in the Eneco Tour twice in a row and last year he won the GP Montreal on a very wet day. This proves that he can handle tough weather which is what he will have to deal with in tomorrow’s stage. He is constantly getting better on the short climbs and knows how to handle steep gradients. Wellens is our favourite to win the stage.

Astana have numerous cards to play and there is little doubt that they will be gunning for victory from a breakaway. Their best option is definitely an in-form Dario Cataldo who has attacked repeatedly both in Catalunya and in this race. He was close to victory in stages 1 and 3 and we have little doubt that he will try again tomorrow. It’s a stage that suits him really well as he is strong on the flats for the first part of the race and rides really well on steep climbs – just recall how he won the Cuitu Negru stage in the Vuelta a few years ago. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint which makes him suited to the flat finale.

Tony Gallopin shares many of the same characteristics and like his teammate Wellens, he was close to the win in this stage 12 months ago. Like Wellens, he is here to prepare for the Ardennes so he has already lost some time. Last year he was in the top 10 on the Mur de Huy in the Tour so he can do well on steep climbs. He is still getting better and knows how to ride well in bad weather – just recall his win at last year’s Paris-Nice. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint.

It’s also a very good stage for Tom-Jelte Slagter who was on the attack in this stage last year. The Dutchman was in GC contention until today when he lost some time. This probably indicates that he is going for a stage win today as he was never going to focus on the GC. He has been in the top 10 on the Mur de Huy and excels on short, steep climbs. He has the punch to do well in this kind of finale and has a fast sprint.

Daniel Martin loves the steep gradients so the Alto de Aia is tailor-made for him. He was aiming for GC here but suffered in the cold yesterday. However, his form is pretty good as he showed in Catalunya and his time loss in today’s stage could be an indication of his ambitions for tomorrow. It remains to be seen how he will handle the cold but he can win this stage both from a breakaway or a sprint from a select group of favourites.

If the GC riders end up deciding the stage, Samuel Sanchez will be a very good pick. The BMC captain has suddenly returned to form after a poor 2015 season and was one of the strongest in stage 2. He looked very strong in the finale of stage 3 too and this is the kind of steep climb that suits him well. If a small group goes clear, he may escape on the wet descent in the finale or win the sprint from a small group.

Sergio Henao is probably the strongest rider on a climb like this and we won’t be surprised if he crests the summit alone. However, it will be hard to keep his chasers at bay in the finale but he will still have options in the finale. The Colombian is one of the fastest of the favourites in a sprint and if he is up against the likes of Quintana and Contador, he will win easily.

Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a bit in stage 2 but he wasn’t that far off the mark. The Spaniard is clearly not at his best level but he may be able to hang onto the best on a climb that suits him well. He is faster than most of the favourites in a sprint and so is an obvious winner candidate.

For a few breakaway jokers, keep an eye on Michael Woods, Diego Rosa, Igor Anton, Darwin Atapuma, Gianluca Brambilla, Damiano Caruso and Carlos Verona. They have all lost some time but have also shown pretty good form. Woods has been ill before this race but he loves these punchy climbs and is fast in a sprint. Anton was previously one of the very best on steep climbs and he seems to be back on track after a few disappointing years. Darwin Atapuma is also strong in this terrain while his teammate Damiano Caruso has the explosiveness and sprinting skills for this kind of finale. Gianluca Brambilla and Carlos Verona are both very aggressive and have been in outstanding form this spring.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tim Wellens (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Dario Cataldo (breakaway), Tony Gallopin (breakaway)

Outsiders: Tom-Jelte Slagter (breakaway), Daniel Martin (breakaway or sprint), Samuel Sanchez, Sergio Henao, Joaquim Rodriguez

Jokers: Michael Woods, Diego Rosa, Igor Anton, Darwin Atapuma, Gianluca Brambilla, Damiano Caruso, Carlos Verona (all from a breakaway)