For the second year in a row, one of the world's oldest cycling races will be take place on Saturday in a revamped edition when the Paris-Bruxelles autumn classics is held under the name of Brussels Cycling Classic. A UCI request forced the organizers to change the format of the race and shorten its distance but it didn't change the kind of racing that will be on offer. Known as one of the most important sprint classics, this is a race for the fast finishers and all is set for a big bunch sprint in front of the Atomium in the Heysel Exhibition Park in the Belgian capital

 

The series of European classics continues on Saturday when the sprinters and classics specialist gather at the start line in Brussels to set out for a 201.7km ride in the area southeast of the Belgian capital. The autumn is loaded with prestigious one-day races that suit the tough sprinters and following the Vattenfall Cyclassics and GP Ouest France-Plouay, the Brussels Cycling Classic is the third race in the series of late-season classics that suit a certain type of rider.

 

Held first in 1893, the race known as Paris-Bruxelles is one of the oldest races on the international cycling calendar. Originally an amateur event running over 397km between the two European capitals, the race wasn't held between 1894 and 1905 but returned in 1906 as a two-day event. The following year it was back as a one-day race and until the 1960s, it played a major role as one of the major spring classics with a date towards the end of April, between Paris-Roubaix and Gent-Wevelgem. However, the race was beset by traffic problems and so lost its prestige, ultimately losing its calendar date to the far younger Amstel Gold Race and leading to the cancellation of the race from 1967 to 1972.

 

The race returned in 1973 as a midweek event in late September, offering perfect preparation for the Paris-Tours. In 1996, it was switched back to being run on a Saturday and is now held in early September. Instead of being an inferior race in an already loaded spring schedule, its long history now turns it into one of the most important autumn classics, being a clear target for most of the best sprinters in the world.

 

Last year, the race, however, faced a makeover. A UCI request to shorten the length has forced the organizers to cut the race's French ties. Due to the shorter distances of modern-day cycling, the race hasn't departed from Paris in recent years, instead starting somewhere in Northern France and finishing in Bruxelles. This wasn't be the case last year when the race both started and finished in the Belgian capital, offering the riders a shorter 197km ride in the area close to the major city. As a consequence, the race was renamed and is now known as the Brussels Cycling Classic.

 

However, the new format won't change the characteristics of the race. This has always been a race for the sprinters and will remain so in the future. As in the past, the route includes a number of hellingen - short, Belgian climbs - but they won't be enough to challenge the fast finishers and as the last one is located 47km from the finish, it would be highly unexpected not to see a big bunch sprint in the end.

 

In that sense, the race fits perfectly into the anatomy of the cycling calendar. While the climbers battle each other in the Spanish mountains, the classics specialists and sprinters race their separate schedule which is loaded with a number of autumn classics that suit them well. It kicks off with the Eneco Tour in the middle of August, continues with the Vattenfall Cyclassics and the GP Ouest France-Plouay and this week it's time for the Brussels Cycling Classic and Sunday's GP Fourmies in France. The remaining part of September and early October is loaded with one-day races in France and Belgium before it all comes to an end with Paris-Tours in France and the Belgian Nationale Sluitingprijs in the middle of October. All races are characterized by aggressive racing and often end in a final bunch sprint. Some are more selective than others but the all share the characteristic that a fast finisher usually prevails.

 

That's also what's in store on Saturday. Some years ago, the organizers tried to make the race a bit more selective by including hellingen closer to the finish. That wasn't enough to prevent a bunch sprint and with the new format, the idea seems to be abandoned. The final hellingen are now so far from the finish that the sprinters have plenty of time to get back on.

 

Hence, it is no surprise that the honours list is dominated by sprinters and the most successful rider in the race's long history is one of the fastest riders of this millennium. Having first won the race in 2002, Robbie McEwen completely dominated the race from 2005 to 2008, taking an impressive 4 victories in a row. An injury prevented him from racing in 2009 and his two final attempts at adding to his tally were both unsuccessful.

 

Compared to the first year with the new format, the organizers have made a couple of changes of which some favour the sprinters and others are a disadvantage for the fast finishers. Last year the main action happened on a hilly circuit with three small climbs and that circuit will again be the centerpiece of this year’s course. This time, however, they will do more laps of the circuit, meaning that the total numbers of hellingen has gone up from 11 to 19. This favours the attackers but the sprinters will have more time to rejoin the peloton. The organizers have included a flat 15.2km finishing circuit on the northern outskirts of Brussels, increasing the distance from the final climb to the finish to 48km.

 

Last year, several sprint teams firmly controlled the race and the bunch sprint never seemed to be in danger. In the end, it came down to a big battle between some of the best sprinters in the world. André Greipel held off John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni and Alexander Kristoff to finally take a big classics victory and break his drought in the big one-day races. One day later, Bouhanni got his revenge in the traditional follow-up event when he beat the German in the GP Fourmies. This year Degenkolb and Bouhanni are both doing the Vuelta while Kristoff has decided to use the Canadian WorldTour races as his Worlds preparation. However, Greipel will be back to try to make it two in a row in Belgium’s biggest autumn race.

 

The course

Last year’s modification saw the race skip its French ties and now the entire event takes place in Belgian Brabant region. This has made it possible to skip the long, flat opening section and make a hillier race but with a finish in Brussels, the final hellingen are bound to be located pretty far from the finish.

 

The organizers are still searching for the optimal course for the race’s new format and so it is no wonder that they have made several modifications to last year’s route. Like last year the key part of the race will take place on a 21.4km circuit with three small climbs but this year the opening, mostly flats section from Brussels to the start of the circuit has been significantly reduced. Instead, the number of laps has been increased from two to five, meaning that the number of hellingen has gone up from 11 to 19. While this will make the race a lot tougher, the organizers have thrown the sprinters a lifeline by adding the 15.2km finishing circuit which will give them more time to get things back together for a bunch kick.

 

The race starts in the Jubelpark in Bruxelles and heads on slightly rolling roads in a southeasterly direction. The Chaussee de la Hulpe will be the day's first climb at the 13.8km mark and it is followed by Lanestraat 6.7km further up the road. In this part of the race, an early break is likely to be established while the sprint teams will gradually take control and start to organize a chase.

 

In Wavre at the 22.5km mark, the riders turn left to head in a northwesterly direction. This year the riders won’t get as far south as they did in 2013 and the pave sector that was located in this part of the course has been removed.

 

After 34km, the riders turn to the left to head back towards Brussels and now they hit the key circuit of the race. They now tackle the climbs of the Langestraat and Vossemberg in quick succession and at the top of the latter, they hit the starting and finishing point of the 20.4km circuit.

 

The circuit includes the three hellingen Vossemberg, Smeysberg and Langestraat which are spread throughout the entire distance. This is the most difficult part of the race where the attackers have to make the selection. The riders will do five laps of the circuit and while the first few laps will probably be raced at a steady pace under the impetus of the sprint teams, we can expect the racing to get aggressive in the final two laps. This is where the selection has to be made and it would be no surprise to see a few teams try to make the race harder, either by attacking or riding tempo on the front of the peloton. The early break is likely to be caught in this part of the race while a new group will probably have formed by the time, the riders leave the circuit.

 

That happens with 47.9km to go when the riders have climbed the Vossenhol for the final time. From there, it is straight back to the finish in Brussels as the riders travel in a northwesterly direction along mostly flat roads. This is the time for the sprint teams to get organized and to reel in the break. They aren't safe though as there are a number of smaller hills in the finale that may serve as perfect launch pads for attacks.

 

The riders reach the finish in Laken on the northern outskirts of Brussels with 15.2km to go and now they take on the new finishing circuit that brings them almost straight in a northerly direction and back to the finish. This part of the race is probably the flattest of the entire course and is perfectly suited to the sprint teams that want to bring it back together for a bunch sprint.

 

The race finishes in the northern part of Bruxelles in front of Atomium in the Heysel Exhibition Park. There's a very small hill inside the final 10km and the finishing straight is slightly uphill and will be remembered by some of the riders as the scene of one of Alessandro Petacchi's stage win in the 2010 Tour de France. The sprinters will have to negotiate right-hand turns 1.4km and 0.7km from the finish before getting onto the slightly ascending road that leads to the finish. This finale is perfectly suited to a sprint finish and it will be a surprise if a bigger group won’t decide the race in a sprint. The main question is whether the new course will make the race more selection and take more riders out of contention before they hit the famous finishing straight.

 

 

 

The weather

For riders that want to avoid a bunch sprint, the weather will play a huge role. Sunny and calm conditions will make it easier for the sprint teams to control the race while rain and wind will make the race more selective. This year it seems that the sprint teams will have it their way as there will barely be any wind.

 

There won’t be much sun on a very cloudy day and the temperature will only reach a maximum of 19 degrees. There will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind and mainly a tail- or headwind on the circuit. During the run back to Brussels, there will be a headwind. On the finishing circuit, there will first be a cross-headwind before the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the finale.

 

The favourites

The organizers may have tried to make things harder by adding more climbs to the course but it is hard to imagine that the 94th edition of the Brussels Cycling Classic won’t be taken by a sprinter. Last year was the first time, the riders tackled the new circuit and it was not even close to putting the sprint teams under pressure. This time they may have to do a few more laps of the circuit but the climbs are simply not hard enough to make a difference. Furthermore, the increased distance from the final climb to the finish will make it very hard for the attackers to stay away.

 

Furthermore, the weather won’t make it any easier. There won’t be much wind that could split the peloton and make the race hard and stressful. Instead, the race should be ready calm which will make it easier for the sprint teams to keep something in reserve for the final chase.

 

Finally, the reputation as a sprint race often impacts the outcome. Looking at the start list, almost all teams have lined up dedicated sprint teams and they will go into the race with the plan to set up a bunch sprint. Some of them may also want to ride aggressively but as several teams will always be missing from the moves, there will always be plenty of firepower in the chase. Unlike in stage races where some teams don’t have a sprinter, almost all teams will be confident in a sprint finish and this will make it very hard for the escapees to stay away.

 

With the defending champion and main favourite on their roster, Lotto-Belisol will the main part of the early work and they can expect to be given a hand from FDJ. As we get closer to the finale, Trek, Cannondale, Lampre-Merida and Europcar may also come to the fore and they will try to control the race firmly.

 

Nonetheless, we can expect lots of attacks in the hilly zone. Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Ag2r, Astana and most of the pro continental and continental teams will try to create some chaos on the final passages of the hellingen and we may see a pretty aggressive race. However, the sprint teams will know how to ride conservatively and bring it back together during the long run back to Brussels. Furthermore, the main sprinters like André Greipel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo and Bryan Coquard are solid climbers too and they will have no trouble getting over the climbs with the bunch. Their teammates don’t even have to slow too much down to keep them fresh as they are all pretty strong in this kind of terrain.

 

With a bunch sprint on the cards, it is hard not to mark defending champion André Greipel out as the main favourite. The German has not had the perfect build-up to the race but on paper he is the fastest rider in the race. With a stage win, Greipel had a moderately successful Tour de France and he looked strong when he returned to competition in the Eneco Tour. Confusing and windy finishes prevented him from sprinting for the win but he proved his form when he beat Nacer Bouhanni in the sprint for the minor placings in stage 2.

 

Unfortunately, Greipel had to abandon the race due to illness which caused him to miss both important training and racing. Hence, he was a bit cautious when he lined up at the Vattenfall Cyclassics but his Lotto Belisol team still did a lot of work to control the race. Again bad luck stroke when Greipel crashed inside the final 100km and that may be the reason for the fact that he was dropped the final two times up the Waseberg.

 

Greipel has not raced for two weeks but he has now had time to recover from his illness and we expect him to be stronger than he was in Hamburg. Even though he climbs solidly and is very fast sprint, he has never had a lot of success in the big one-day races as he seems to suffer on the really long days. This race is not too long and with a couple of climbs to make things a bit hard, it suits him really well. The slightly uphill finishing straight is also tailor-made for the powerful German.

 

In addition to the concerns about his form, Greipel has another reason to be a bit worried. He is usually not very good at positioning himself and is very reliant on his strong lead-out train. In this race, only Marcel Sieberg will be at his side and the team is very unlikely to dominate the finale. Greipel will probably have to freelance a bit more in the sprint and that is definitely not his strongest point. Nonetheless, he is still one of the three fastest riders in the world and as he had good condition in the Eneco Tour, he must be the man to beat.

 

Talking about good form, it is hard not to mention Giacomo Nizzolo. In the Tour de Wallonie and the Eneco Tour, the young Italian was clearly not at 100% but now he is obviously close to his best. In the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he was second behind an outstanding Alexander Kristoff and one week ago he was again beaten by the Norwegian in the sprint for 8th in the GP Plouay.

 

Nizzolo has made these autumn classics some kind of a specialty. He is a better climber than most other sprinters and he seems to be getting faster compared to his rivals when the sprint comes at the end of a hard race. Plouay maybe suited him a bit better than tomorrow’s race which may be a bit too easy to suit him perfectly but in Hamburg he showed that he is also very fast at the end of races that are not very hard.

 

Most importantly, Nizzolo has improved massively when it comes to top speed. In the Giro, he took several second places and he was close to beating Nacer Bouhanni on a number of occasions. These days the Frenchman is showing how fast he is in the Vuelta and it was definitely no mean feat for Nizzolo to mix it up with the FDJ sprinter in Italy.

 

Nizzolo is excellent at positioning himself and it is very rare for him to miss completely out. With the Van Poppel brothers and Danilo Hondo at his side, he is supported by one of the strongest teams. The big win is still missing from his palmares that are loaded with second places but tomorrow may be the day where he finally reaches the top step of the podium.

 

Arnaud Demare is an excellent classics rider. Already in his neo-pro season, he won the Vattenfall Cyclassics on a brutally hot day, proving that he knows how to sprint at the end of a long, testing day. In the last two years, he has excelled in the cobbled classics and he is perfectly suited to this race too. He excels on short, steep climbs and an uphill finishing straight it tailor-made for him.

 

His condition is a bit uncertain. He had a very bad Tour de France debut and when he returned to competition in the Tour de Limousin, he was off the pace. In Hamburg, he suffered on the Waseberg but he was still there in the end until a puncture took him out of contention.

 

Demare has had a hard season and it remains to be seen if he can rebuild his condition for the late-season races. He won’t do the World Championships but has probably set his sights on Paris-Tours. On paper, only Greipel is faster than him in this race but he still needs to prove that he is competitive.

 

Demare usually suffers when it comes to positioning but in this race he has a very strong team at his side. Yoann Offredo, Sebastien Chavanel, William Bonnet and Mickael Delage form one of the strongest lead-out trains in this race and it would be no surprise to see them dominate the finale. If Demare is delivered on the front, he will very difficult to pass.

 

Elia Viviani is a strange sprinter. In the Tour of Turkey he easily beat Mark Cavendish on a number of occasions, proving that he has an impressive top speed. However, he had a very bad Giro d’Italia where he was not even close to matching the speed of Bouhanni and Nizzolo.

 

Viviani is very inconsistent but on his best days he is extremely fast. He won a stage in the USA Pro Challenge on a hard course in Colorado Springs and confirmed his good condition in Plouay where he survived the many climbs and arrived at the finish with the peloton. At his best, he climbs pretty well but he often suffers when it comes to positioning. He doesn’t have the strongest team at his side and it will mainly be left to Fabio Sabatini to position him. If he is given a clear run to the line, however, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Sacha Modolo had a great start to his first season with Lampre-Merida but since he crashed in Paris-Roubaix, nothing has gone to plan. He abandoned the Tour due to illness and after he had shown growing condition in the Tour de Pologne, a bad crash took him out of the Eneco Tour. That prevented him from performing well in Hamburg and he goes into this race as a big question.

 

However, Modolo is a very fast sprinter who both climbs really well and excels in these finales. With Davide Cimolai at his side, he has a very capable lead-out man. He handles the positioning really well and on paper he is one of the fastest riders in the peloton. It remains to be seen in what kind of condition he is but if he has recovered from his health issues, he has the speed to win this race.

 

Ever since his professional debut, Bryan Coquard has proved that he has the speed to mix it up with the very best but he still has a lot to learn when it comes to positioning. In the Tour de France, however, it seemed that he had improved a lot and his good performance in the points competition was a testament to the consistency that comes from good positioning skills.

 

Coquard is one of the best climbers among the sprinters and he will hope that tomorrow’s race turns into a really hard affair. His condition is a bit uncertain as he forfeited his participation in the Eneco Tour but he rode reasonably well in both Hamburg and Plouay. He won’t be given an awful lot of support in the finale and this means that it will be hard for him to win. However, he has the speed to shine in a race like this.

 

It will be interesting to see how Omega Pharma-Quick Step handle the race. On paper, they have the strongest lead-out train as they are loaded with fast men like Alessandro Petacchi, Gianni Meersman, Gert Steegmans and Andrew Fenn but they obviously miss their top sprinter. Petacchi has been reluctant to take on sprinting duties in his recent races and Meersman will struggle against the top sprinters in a race that is too easy to suit him perfectly.

 

However, team support plays a massive role in a sprint and the one that is given the nod, could be delivered on the front, giving them the perfect chance to win. As Meersman has shown great condition in his recent races, winning the Tour de Wallonie overall, taking two stages in the Tour de l’Ain and sprinting to 11th in Plouay, we expect the team to support the Belgian. Being no pure sprinter, Meersman will have a hard time winning the race and so we can expect the team to try to make the race hard.

 

Petacchi is no longer the sprinter he once was but he remains a very capable sprinter. In 2010, he won a Tour de France stage in this finale and he may be keen to repeat that feat. He is probably still the fastest rider on the Omega Pharma-Quick Step roster and this finish suits him pretty well. He didn’t have his best Tour de France and is now contemplating retirement and his form has not been very good recently. If he is given a perfect lead-out, however, he may still have a big win in his legs.

 

Davide Appollonio rode really well a few weeks ago but the big result eluded the versatile Italian. In Plouay, he had a bad day and decided to ride in support of Samuel Dumoulin and so his condition is now a bit uncertain. On paper, however, this race suits him pretty well as he climbs solidly and is very fast in a sprint.

 

He has to share sprinting duties with Dumoulin but in this kind of race, Appollonio should be the man. He doesn’t have an awful lot of team support but he is great at positioning himself. He is probably not fast enough to win the race but on a good take he could sprint onto the podium.

 

Michael Van Staeyen has been riding really well recently. The tiny Belgian is usually not the strongest climber but in the Eneco Tour he was surprisingly resistant in the hard stages. He excels on uphill finishing straights and this race suits him really well.

 

Van Staeyen has not had his best year but in the last few weeks he has shown signs of improvement. Earlier in his career he was very consistent but the big win has always eluded him. He is great at positioning himself and even though there are faster riders than him, his good condition may take him far. A podium spot is definitely within his reach.

 

Roy Jans is an upcoming top sprinter for Wanty and he has been agonizingly close to a win in the last few races. He has sprinted to podium spots thrice within the last few weeks and he was second at the Belgian championships. Wanty have a lot of confidence in the Belgian who recently extended his contract and they plan to build a sprint train around him. Being one of the in-form sprinters, he could create a surprise in tomorrow’s race.

 

***** André Greipel

**** Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

*** Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo, Bryan Coquard

** Gianni Meersman, Alessandro Petacchi, Davide Appollonio, Michael Van Staeyen, Roy Jans, Borut Bozic

* Romain Feillu, Tom Van Asbroeck, Manuel Belletti, Francesco Chicchi, Ruslan Tleybayev, Andrew Fenn, Gert Steegmans, Louis Verhelst, Samuel Dumoulin