A legend says goodbye when Cadel Evans lines up for his final professional race, his eponymous Great Ocean Road Race that takes place on parts of the course that was used for the 2010 World Championships won by Thor Hushovd. While all Australians would love a fairytale end to his career, however, the only Australian grand tour winner is unlikely to win a race that is set to be dominated by sprinters and classics riders.

It speaks volumes about the impact that Cadel Evans has had on Australian cycling that a race with his name has been established and is expected to remain an important part of the Australian summer and stay on the UCI calendar for many years to come. The inaugural edition may mostly be regarded as Evans’ farewell to professional cycling but the event is much more than a single goodbye. In fact, the organizers and Evans hope that the race will grow and become a prestigious event on the international calendar.

The course

The race may be known as Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race but the course definitely doesn’t resemble the ones where Evans has taken his wins. Using a big part of the course that was used for the 2010 World Championships that was won by Thor Hushovd, there are no big climbs and the race doesn’t suit a rider of Evans’ characteristics. Instead, it takes in plenty of scenic roads along the coast and TV viewers should be able to enjoy the spectacular scenery.

The 174km starts and finishes in Geelong and the first 113km consist of a big loop in the area south of the city. The first half follows the flat and windy coastal road before the riders head inland to tackle a few smaller climbs that bring them to 171m of altitude. The final 15km are mainly downhill as the riders descend back to the coast.

The final part of the race consists of three laps of a 20.2km circuit around Geelong which is mostly flat and doesn’t include much coastal road. The main challenge is the small climb of Challambra Crest which is less than a kilometre long and summits at the 8.1km mark. After an immediate descent, the roads are rolling all the way to the finish. There are no major technical issues with the final left-hand turn coming around a kilometre from the finish, with the final coastal road bending slightly to the left.

The weather

While the course doesn’t have the potential to produce too much selection, the weather could make a huge difference and many riders will hope for a windy day that could wreak havoc on the peloton. They will be pleased to know that it will be a cloudy day with no chance to see the sun but after rain will have fallen during the night, it is expected to remain dry. The temperature will reach a maximum of 20 degrees.

The main issue is the strong southerly wind which could have an impact on the race. The riders will mainly have a headwind in the first part along the coast but there will be some cross-headwind section along the way. As they turn around, they will mainly have a tailwind but the final part of the big circuit should see the riders ride in a crosswind. On the final circuit, there will first be a headwind and then a crosswind up the climb. Then it’s mainly a tailwind before the riders turn into a crosswind. There will be a cross-headwind on the finishing straight.

The favourites

The race may carry Cadel Evans’ name but it is not one for stage race specialists and climbers. Instead, classics riders and sprinters should shine in the mainly flat terrain. On a calm day, the race would be destined to end in a bunch sprint but as wind is expected, it could become a lot harder. This could open the door for strong riders to make the difference and definitely enhances the chance that Cadel Evans will get a fairytale ending to his career.

Knowing that this is a race for sprinters, many teams have lined up fast riders and this means that it will probably be a controlled affair. On the other hand, the organizers have opted for small 6-rider teams and with most of the field made up of smaller continental teams, the big teams may have a hard time keeping things together for a bunch sprint.

The windy condition could definitely have an impact. Unfortunately, the riders will mainly have a headwind on the coastal road but in the final part of the big circuit and on the small circuit, there are a few crosswind sections that could be used for attack. Some of the WorldTour teams will definitely play with the muscles and it would be a surprise if BMC don’t try to split things. It may put some of the continental teams into difficulty and as we can expect quite a bit of aggression on the final laps – Cadel Evans is destined to attack the final time up the climb – the peloton is unlikely to be intact at the end.

On the other hand, IAM, Orica-GreenEDGE, MTN-Qhubeka and Etixx-QuickStep have strong teams for this race and they all want a sprint finish. This makes a sprint from a reduced peloton the most likely outcome.

In that case, it is hard to look beyond Caleb Ewan when it comes to selecting the favourite. The Australian was in excellent condition earlier this month when he dominated the Mitchelton Bay Cycling Classic and rode an exceptional Nationals road race where he came away with second place. His team claims that he is now in even better condition and there is no doubt that he is the fastest rider in this race.

Ewan is a very strong climber so he is unlikely to get dropped on the climbs and with a strong team to support him, he should survive the crosswind too. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the best lead-out and this could be his undoing. Sam Bewley and Michael Hepburn know how to set a fast pace in the finale but there are definitely stronger trains in this race, meaning that Ewan may not be in the best position at the start of the sprint. In a reduced peloton, however, it may be more about speed than positioning and this makes Ewan the man to beat.

His biggest rival is likely to be Heinrich Haussler. The Australian champion is fast, climbs well and is an excellent classics rider who knows how to handle the crosswinds. His main asset, however, is his team which did an excellent job at the Tour Down Under where they played a big role in the finales. Rogers Kluge may no longer be here but the likes of Martin Elmiger, David Tanner and Vicente Reynes should make sure that Haussler has the perfect position for the sprint.

Speaking of lead-out trains, Etixx-QuickStep is a perennial force to be reckoned with. In the Tour Down Under, the mainly rode for Gianni Meersman in the sprints but for this kind of race, Mark Renshaw should be their man. The Australian seemed to be riding well in Adelaide and on paper, he is one of the fastest riders in this field. If Etixx-QuickStep can bring him into position, he will be one of the favourites. The team may also decide to support Meersman but not being a pure sprinter, he will have to rely on a very strong lead-out to win the race.

The race marks the first event for Matthew Goss and Tyler Farrar in MTN-Qhubeka colours and it will be interesting to see how the African team distributes the roles. In an Australian race, however, we would expect Matthew Goss to be the designated sprinter and the race would be the perfect way for him to kick start a revival. However, he has had a very hard time in the sprints for more than a year and he needs to prove that he still has the speed to win big race. With his win in the Tour of Beijing, Tyler Farrar ended 2014 on a high and the American would be an obvious favourite if he gets the backing from his team.

BMC will try to make the race hard but in case of a sprint they will support young Silvan Dillier. However, the Swiss will need a hard race to take a breakthrough win and his best chance may come if his team manages to split the field to pieces as he could easily find himself as the fastest rider in a small group. Rüdiger Selig sprinted well in the Tour Down Under and Eugenio Alafaci, Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Benfatto, Nathan Haas, Anthony Giacoppo, Massimo Graziato, John Murphy and Luke Rowe may be other riders to look out for in a bunch sprint.

If the race turns out to be a really tough affair, the race may split to pieces and in that case, a late breakaway of strong riders may make the difference on one of the final laps. In that case, Ian Stannard, David Tanner, Martin Elmiger, Vicente Reynes, Jack Bauer, Moreno Moser and Hayden Roulston are good picks as they rode well in the Tour Down Under and have the speed to win from a small group. And finally, no one can completely rule out that Cadel Evans will manage to steal the show by getting clear with a small group in the final and use a combination of his fast speed and tactical astuteness to win the race.

***** Caleb Ewan

**** Heinrich Haussler, Mark Renshaw

*** Matthew Goss, Tyler Farrar, Gianni Meersman

** Rüdiger Selig, Silvan Dillier, Eugenio Alafaci, Alexey Tsatevich

* Marco Benfatto, Nathan Haas, Anthony Giacoppo, Massimo Graziato, John Murphy, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, David Tanner, Martin Elmiger, Vicente Reynes, Jack Bauer, Moreno Moser, Marco Frapporti, Danny Summerhill, Hayden Roulston, Cadel Evans, Danilo Wyss, Bernard Sulzberger, Peter Kennaugh, Davide Villella