The Tour de France is over and it is time for the traditional revenge match between the race's climbers. The Basque climbs - most notably the famous Alto de Jaizkibel - offer the perfect scene when many of the Tour stars mix it up with some of the high-profile names that were absent in the French grand tour, to battle for the honour of winning Spain's biggest one-day race, the Clasica San Sebastian. For some it's a final opportunity to benefit from the post-Tour condition, for others it's the first major objective in a long and hectic autumn season. That combination is set to produce a fabulous bike race as the peloton tackles the hilly roads that surround the beautiful Spanish holiday destination.
Spain is one of cycling's traditional powerhouses and the sport has a rich history in the country. However, the cycling culture is markedly different in some of Europe's most established cycling nations. While Belgium has always put its main emphasis on one-day races, those events play almost no role in the country on the Iberian peninsula where it's almost all about stage racing. Many stage races have disappeared in recent years but Spain once had a fantastic calendar of hilly, multi-day events.
On the other hand, there has never been a rich one-day scene in Spain and those few Spaniards who have excelled in the classics, have never received much recognition in their home country - just ask Juan Antonio Flecha and Oscar Freire. However, one single-day event stands out from the rest of the races and has made it into the top echelon of the sport: the hilly Clasica San Sebastian.
While most other one-day races have esteem by virtue of their deep history, Clasica San Sebastian finds itself in a completely different situation. First held in 1981, it is a rather new event but from the onset, it attracted some big Spanish and foreign stars that were inspired by the hilly nature of the course and the passion of the Basque cycling culture. When the world cup was created in 1989, Clasica San Sebastian made it into the select elite of one-day races despite its short 8-year history. When the ProTour (later renamed the WorldTour) was created in 2005, it promptly was included on the list of the most prestigious races.
That recognition is highly justified. As a well-organized event in one of the most cycling-mad parts of Europe, it always attracts a high-calibre line-up of climbers and Ardennes specialists that find the hilly course in the Basque hills to their liking. Held less than a week after the final stage of the Tour de France, the race has found its unique role on the cycling calendar as the perfect revenge match between the Tour's best climbers. Those Tour stars mix it up with some of the best riders that chose not to spend 3 weeks on the French roads and for those latter riders, the race is the first target in a long autumn season. Earlier the race was held one week later but the recent schedule change has given the race a further boost as it is easier for the Tour stars to maintain their condition for a shorter amount of time.
Like many other Spanish races, the existence of the Clasica San Sebastian has come under threat in recent years, and in February 2012 organizers warned that neither the Clasica nor the Vuelta al Pais Vasco would be held if not a new major sponsor would step in. UCI considered intervening to save the historical races and finally the Spanish bank Sabadell Guipuzcano stepped in to secure the races' futures through at least this season.
The race's main feature is the Jaizkibel climb which is the place to create a selection before the mostly flat, high-speed run-in to the finish in the seaside city of San Sebastian. Wishing to add more difficulties to the race, the organizers decided to add another ascent of the famous climb for the 2010 edition of the race and since then the Jaizkibel and the subsequent Arkale climbs have been tackled twice. This has certainly added to the toughness of the race and made it much harder to control the final flat part of the race.
The Clasica San Sebastian is usually one of the hardest races to predict as the conditions of the Tour riders are always completely up in the air. Some finish the race with a boosted form, others are completely fatigued and often they make a very late decision on their participation as they need to see how well they have recovered from the hardships of the grand tour.
Last year the Olympics forced the race to be held as a midweek pre-Vuelta event instead of its usual weekend post-Tour status. Luis Leon Sanchez showed his fantastic ability to play it right in difficult, tactical finales to pick up his second win just two years after his first. In a very aggressive finale, the Spaniard stayed calm until sensing the right opportunity to launch a devastating offensive on the flat run-in to San Sebastian. Without an organized chase, the small-sized peloton was unable to reel in the Rabobank rider who crossed the line 7 seconds ahead of Simon Gerrans who beat Gianni Meersman and the rest of the select group of contenders to take 2nd. There won't be a repeat win for Sanchez this year as his Belkin team has decided to line him up at the Tour de Pologne which starts on Saturday as he builds his form for the Vuelta a Espana.
The course
The Clasica San Sebastian has a traditional itinerary that allows numerous kilometres on the hilly Basque roads to build up fatigue ahead of the race's final showdown and its two laps on the difficult circuit that includes the main feature, the Jaizkibel climb, and the smaller Arkale ascent. As a WordTour one-day race, the distance plays a significant role as 234km on difficult roads in what is often very hot conditions can be felt at the end of a very long day in the saddle.
The race kicks off in San Sebastian at 11.10 and the riders head directly into the Basque hills. At the 19km mark, the peloton reaches the top of the category 3 Alto de Orio (1,5km, 4%) which is followed immediately by the category 2 Alto de Garate (2,8km, 7,86%). Those two climbs should be the launch pads for some early attacks and spur the creation of what will be the day's early breakaway.
From then on, the riders tackle a section of undulating roads as a long, gradual climb takes them up to more than 200m of altitude while a gradual descent brings them back down to sea level for some smaller, uncategorized ascents. The purpose of this stretch is mainly to accumulate fatigue as the main teams gradually start to show their intentions and ride a hard tempo that can both tire out the rivals and bring back the early escape.
The finale starts with 86,6km to go when the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Alto de Jaizkibel (7,8km, 5,84%). The climb comes in two sections with an easier stretch in between and levels out a bit towards the top. The difficult parts both have a gradient of 7-8%. While it is still too early for the main favourites to play their cards, we often see some reshuffling of the breakaway. The steep slopes is enough to send many riders out the back - both in the peloton and the breakaway - while riders usually use the opportunity to launch a new offensive. At the same time, the main favourites don't miss the opportunity to ask their teams to ride tempo.
A fast descent is followed by a short stretch of flat roads and the uncategorized Alto de Gaintzurizketa and then it is time for the category 2 Alto de Arkale (2,7km, 6,3%) which is a rather constant climb and whose top is located with 55km to go.
Instead of continuing all the way to San Sebastian, the riders head back up the Jaizkibel climb and this is the time for the favourites to play their cards. The riders who have no hopes of winning a final sprint, usually launch attacks and while the early break is now caught, it is often just a small group of climbers that crest the summit in the lead positions.
At the top 37,8km remain. More riders often join from behind and by the time, they finish the descent a select 20-30 rider group has often formed. From then on, it is usually an extremely aggressive race as the domestique resources are by now very limited. That makes the race very hard to control and the final run-in often produces some very exciting riding as attacks go thick and fast in both sides of the road.
The Gaintzurizketa and Arkala climbs form the perfect launch pads for late attacks - the latter has its top located just 15km from the finish. This time the riders continue all the way to the finish in San Sebastian and those final kilometres are mostly flat. The small Alto Miracruz which comes at the 3km to go mark, is often the scene for late attacks that can prove decisive when the riders enter the finishing straight on the big boulevard in San Sebastian.
With a mostly flat run-in, one would expect it to often come down to a sprint from a select group but that is a surprisingly rare outcome. It is testament to the toughness of the course that no more than 3 riders have decided the race between them since Alejandro Valverde won a small sprint in 2008. With most domestiques dropped, those final kilometres are often extremely complicated to control, and tactical savvy, timing and brave riding are attributes that are often rewarded in San Sebastian.
The weather
While the other big Basque race, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, is known for its cold and rain, that's certainly not the case for the Clasica San Sebastian which is held at an entirely different time of the year. Usually held in very hot conditions, the riders will get to enjoy a little more pleasant weather for this year's edition. It should be mostly sunny with just a few clouds on the Sky and the temperatures should reach a maximum of around 27 degrees.
At the beginning, there will be almost no wind but as the day goes on, it should pick up a bit. As it will come from a northern direction, the riders should face a headwind as they head back to the coast for the finish and this will be a clear disadvantage for the riders that hope to hold off the peloton.
The favourites
As indicated above, the Clasica San Sebastian is one of the harder races to predict. The Tour stars mix it up with riders with very little racing in their legs and the form level of both groups is very difficult to gauge. At the same time, tactical savvy and luck play a crucial role on the flat final part. Those kilometres are very difficult to control for the few domestiques which are left at this point in time and surprisingly often a late move stays clear all the way to the line.
However, we may still point to two attributes that are important for any rider with winning ambitions. First of all, it requires a very good pair of climbing legs to survive those two ascents of the Jaizkibel in the lead group. Furthermore, it is very hard to arrive alone on the finishing straight - the last two editions are both exceptions to the general rule - and so a good sprint is no bad ability in this race.
Alejandro Valverde perfectly fits the bill and it is a surprise that the versatile Spaniard has only won the race once. However, his teammates have often found it difficult to keep it together for the final sprint and usually a couple of riders have slipped up the road late in the race.
This year Valverde hopes to avoid a similar scenario but he won't put too much emphasis on his big home race. He has just finished a very hard Tour de France where he went deep in the final week of racing and now hopes to shine in the Vuelta. In an attempt to avoid fatigue, he is likely to have taken it easy during the last week, and it is no certainty that he still has the condition to mix it up with the best. He starts the race with no pressure and will not be too disappointed, should he fail to deliver a result.
However, there is a solid chance that the race will end in a small group sprint this time. Movistar has a clear interest in such a scenario and the same goes for BMC and a very strong Orica-GreenEdge team. Should fast riders like Paul Martens and Matti Breschel make it over the climb, Belkin and Saxo-Tinkoff could all put their eggs into the sprint basket. If it comes down to a decision from a reduced bunch, Valverde has a very good chance of winning. He has proven on numerous occasions that he is faster than world champion Philippe Gilbert in a sprint and he and Simon Gerrans should be rather evenly matched. He is unlikely to race too aggressively himself but should it come down to a sprint, he has a very good chance of winning and so is our favourite for the race.
Simon Gerrans finished 2nd last year when he won the group sprint behind the lone winner Sanchez. He has just finished the Tour and Orica-GreenEdge have made it clear that San Sebastian is one of their major targets in the second part of the season. The Australian has been on fire all season and has a formidable ability to red-circle a race and then go on to win it. He did so when he took a stage in the Tour Down Under, the Volta a Catalunya, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and most recently the Tour de France. He appears to be sprinting faster than ever before and now even has the speed to win bunch sprints. He had a very close sprint with Valverde at the end of this year's Amstel Gold Race and if it comes down to another sprint, it could very well end up as another duel between those two riders.
The main question is his freshness. Having started the Tour excellently, the appeared to fade later in the race and it is no certainty that he will get over the Jaizkibel which is a little bit too long to his liking. At the same time, he is part of a very strong team with numerous fast finishers and if the likes of Gerrans, Michael Albasini, Simon Clarke and Wesley Sulzberger are all in contention after the second passage of Jaizkibel, it would be a wise strategy to race offensively and back Gerrans in the final sprint, should it all come back together. While that tactic could very well be successful for the Australian team, it is no certainty that it will be Gerrans who takes the win.
Philippe Gilbert has had a tough season for the second year in a row but nowadays he appears to need a grand tour to get his legs up to their top level speed. That was the case last year when he finally started to show his former level when he had completed the Tour. This year he has also just finished the French grand tour and late indications were that he was getting better.
He had a chance to battle for the win in the stage to Gap but the final climb was a little bit too long to suit him perfectly. That is also the case for the Jaizkibel but on this occasion he has time to get back in contention. We are not sure that he will be present when it all gets serious in the final part of the race but if he manages to survive the climbing, he should form a very strong duo with recent Tour de Wallonie winner Greg Van Avermaet. While the latter could cover the moves, the world champion is likely to save himself for the sprint. Should it come down to a decision from a larger group, he still has to battle the likes of Valverde and Gerrans but on a good day he has the speed to do so.
Most expected Michal Kwiatkowski to fade out of GC contention at some point in the Tour but the Pole just kept going on, eventually ending up 11th. Despite having just finished his first grand tour, he still feels fresh enough to start a hard 232km one-day race in Spain. He has all the characteristics to shine in tomorrow's race as he is both a good climber and a very fast sprinter - he was only narrowly edged out by a certain Peter Sagan in the sprint for 2nd in stage 2 of the Tour. In the Ardennes classics, he proved that he is able to handle the longer distances. On paper, we would say that it should be too hard for him to remain competitive at this point but having learnt from the Tour, we won't rule out the fast Pole.
Greg Van Avermaet may have won the Tour de Wallonie but he certainly didn't have it all his own way. On numerous occasios,n Marco Marcato appeared to be the strongest rider in the race and he hopes to carry that golden condition into tomorrow's race. His win in last year's Paris-Tours shows that he can handle the distances of the longest one-day races. On the other hand, he has never featured at the pointy end of the hardest single-day events and the San Sebastian is one of those. The climbs are certainly a little bit longer than he would have liked them but there should be time to get back on later in the race. In a sprint, he is a danger man and at his current level, he could be present when it is time to decide the winner of the 2013 edition of the race.
As said, Orica-GreenEdge has a number of options in the race. While Gerrans may be the best card, we have some concerns over his freshness. The same goes for Michael Albasini who admitted to finish the Tour fatigued but with two strong options, Orica-GreenEdge should at least have one left at the end. Like Gerrans, Albasini is very fast in a smaller sprint and when he finished 2nd in the Lyon stage, he showed that he is impressively strong. The team is likely to back Gerrans in a sprint but Albasini could play an offensive role earlier in the race and if he arrives at the line in a small breakaway, he will be very hard to beat.
The big-name rider on the Katusha team may be Joaquim Rodriguez but we doubt that the Spaniard will try to win tomorrow. Like Valverde, he has set his sights on the Vuelta and he is usually not at his best in the races that he doesn't target. At the same time, the race doesn't suit him very well as he doesn't have the speed in a flat sprint to beat the fastest riders.
Instead, it could be the time for Katusha to support Daniel Moreno. Usually a loyal domestique, he gets his chance to shine in the races that Rodriguez doesn't target as it was the case last year in the Volta a Burgos which he won. In a flat sprint, he is faster than his team captain and he appeared to get better and better as the Tour went on. He may not be as fast as the likes of Valverde, Gerrans, Gilbert and Kwiatkowski but if Katusha play their cards right he could take the win. With an in-form Alexandr Kolobnev also on the roster, the team has a number of cards to play.
Finally, we will point to a rider that could deny the faster riders the win on the flat run-in to the line. Jan Bakelants had an outstanding Tour and won stage 2 before going on to wear the yellow jersey for two days. He didn't slow down at all in the final part of the race and almost made it into all the key breakaways of the race. At the same time, he was still fresh enough to test himself out against the best riders in the summit finishes and took 18th overall. He is a wily competitor who knows how to time a late move in the flat final kilometres and he is one of the select few with the strength to finish it off. He is no bad sprinter either and so he would still have a good chance, should he get some companion in a final attack.
***** Alejandro Valverde
**** Simon Gerrans, Philippe Gilbert
*** Michal Kwiatkowski, Marco Marcato, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Jan Bakelants
** Paul Martens, Simon Clarke, Greg Van Avermaet, Alexandr Kolobnev, Joaquin Rodriguez, Andrew Talansky, Bauke Mollema, Samuel Sanchez
* Matti Breschel, Ryder Hesjedal, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, Richie Porte, Pierrick Fedrigo, Dries Devenyns, Stijn Devolder, Sylvain Chavanel
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