The Tour de France is over and it is time for the traditional revenge match between the race's climbers. The Basque climbs - most notably the famous Alto de Jaizkibel - offer the perfect scene in the Clasica San Sebastian where many of the Tour stars mix it up with some of the high-profile absentees from the French grand tour to battle for the honour of winning Spain's biggest one-day race. For some, it's a final opportunity to benefit from the post-Tour condition, for others it's the first major objective in a long and hectic autumn season. That combination is set to produce a fabulous bike race as the peloton tackles the hilly roads that surround the beautiful Spanish holiday destination.

 

Spain is one of cycling's traditional powerhouses and the sport has a rich history in the country. However, the cycling culture is markedly different from some of Europe's most established cycling nations. While Belgium has always put its main emphasis on one-day races, those events play almost no role in the country on the Iberian Peninsula where it's almost all about stage racing. Many stage races have disappeared in recent years but Spain once had a fantastic calendar of hilly, multi-day events.

 

On the other hand, there has never been a rich one-day scene in Spain and those few Spaniards who have excelled in the classics, have never received much recognition in their home country - just ask Juan Antonio Flecha and Oscar Freire. However, one single-day event stands out from the rest of the races and has made it into the top echelon of the sport: the hilly Clasica San Sebastian.

 

While most other one-day races have esteem by virtue of their deep history, Clasica San Sebastian finds itself in a completely different situation. First held in 1981, it is a rather new event but from the onset, it attracted some big Spanish and foreign stars that were inspired by the hilly nature of the course and the passion of the Basque cycling culture. When the World Cup was created in 1989, Clasica San Sebastian made it into the select elite of one-day races despite its short 8-year history. When the ProTour (later renamed the WorldTour) was created in 2005, it promptly was included on the list of the most prestigious races.

 

That recognition is highly justified. As a well-organized event in one of the most cycling-mad parts of Europe, it always attracts a high-calibre line-up of climbers and Ardennes specialists that find the hilly course in the Basque hills to their liking. Held less than a week after the final stage of the Tour de France, the race has found its unique role on the cycling calendar as the perfect revenge match for the Tour's best climbers. Those Tour stars mix it up with some of the stars that were absent from the 3 weeks on the French roads, and for those latter riders the race is the first target in a long autumn season. Earlier the race was held one week later but the recent schedule change has given the race a further boost as it is now closer to the Tour and so makes it easier for the Tour stars to maintain their condition for the race.

 

Like many other Spanish races, the existence of the Clasica San Sebastian has come under threat in recent years, and in February 2012 organizers warned that neither the Clasica nor the Vuelta al Pais Vasco would be held if not a new major sponsor would step in. UCI considered intervening to save the historical races and finally the Spanish bank Sabadell Guipuzcano stepped in to secure the races' futures for a couple of years.

 

The race's main feature is the Jaizkibel climb which has traditionally been the place to create a selection before the mostly flat, high-speed run-in to the finish in the seaside city of San Sebastian. Wishing to add more difficulties to the race, the organizers decided to include another ascent of the famous climb for the 2010 edition of the race and since then the Jaizkibel and the subsequent Arkale climbs have been tackled twice. This has certainly added to the toughness of the race and made it much harder to control the final flat part of the race.

 

This year the course has again been changed. The organizers have been frustrated not to be able to promote the city of San Sebastian sufficiently and so have decided that a bigger part of the finale needs to take place in the centre of the race. When the riders have tackled the Jaizkibel and Arkale climbs twice, they will head to the finish line in the traditional way but this year they will end the race by doing a 16.2km finishing circuit. While mostly flat, it includes a very tough 3km climb to the Hotel San Sebastian and its 9% average and maximum 22% gradient makes it a hard affair. Summiting just 8.3km from the finish, it will dramatically change the dynamics of the race.

 

The Clasica San Sebastian is usually one of the hardest races to predict as the condition of the Tour riders is always completely up in the air. Some finish the race with a boosted form, others are completely fatigued and often they make a very late decision on their participation as they need to see how well they have recovered from the hardships of the grand tour. Hence, the start list often undergoes dramatic changes until within the 24 hours of the start of the race.

 

This year several Tour stars will try to make use of their grand tour condition as Romain Bardet, Tejay van Garderen, Peter Sagan, Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck all feature on the provisional start list. They will be up against several in-form riders who want to kick start their autumn season in the best possible way on the Basque road. Philippe Gilbert spearheads the list that also includes names like Daniel Martin, Daniel Moreno, Zdenek Stybar, Jelle Vanendert and Gianni Meersman.

 

Last year the race was back in its usual spot on the calendar after the Olympics had caused a change of dates in 2012 to make it more of a pre-Vuelta test and it turned out to be an exciting battle between some of the Tour de France stars. After the final passage of the Jaizkibel, Tony Gallopin, Alejandro Valverde, Roman Kreuziger, Mikel Nieve, Mikel Landa and Nicolas Roche escaped and the main stars were taken by surprise by Gallopin who launched a brave solo attack in a flat section. The chasers failed to cooperate to bring him back and so the Frenchman held on to take the biggest victory of his career. Valverde beat Kreuziger in the sprint for 2nd but again missed out on the victory in a race that he has only won once. The Spaniard and Gallopin will both be back for more in this year’s race while Kreuziger will be absent as he makes his comeback in the Tour de Pologne.

 

The course

The Clasica San Sebastian has traditionally included an opening run through the Basque hills to tire out the riders ahead of the exciting finale and then everything has been decided on the final circuit with the Jaizkibel and the Arkale climbs. Since 2010, the circuit has been done twice before the riders have continued along mostly flat roads to the finish on the Boulevard in San Sebastian.

 

As said, the organizers have decided to change the course significantly for this year’s race and the inclusion of a 16.2km finishing circuit with a very tough climb in the finale should significantly alter the dynamics of the race. The first hilly section has been cut further down and now only features one climb. Like in the four latest editions, the riders will then do two laps of the Jaizkibel-Arkale circuit before going back to the finish and do a lap of the finishing circuit. As a WordTour one-day race, the distance has traditionally played a significant role but this year the race has been shortened significantly. Last year the total distance was 232km but this year the riders will only do 219.2km with less climbing. Overall it should be an easier race but the finale will be harder.

 

The race kicks off in San Sebastian at 11.45 local time and the riders have traditionally headed straight into the Basque hills. This year, however, they will travel along rolling coastal roads in the first part of the race and they won’t face any significant climbing before they reach the Alto Iturburua whose summit is located at the 59.5km mark. After the descent, it’s back onto rolling roads that lead to the start of the Jaizkibel-Arkale circuit.

 

This opening part is easier than it has been in the past and will mainly serve to create the early break. With less climbing, the escape may not necessarily include great climbers and may be easier to keep under control. Traditionally, the break has often been given a pretty big advantage but with the shorter distance they may be kept a bit firmer under control by the teams of the favourites who will start to accelerated but the time they approach the first lap of the key circuit.

 

The finale starts with 102.2km to go when the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Alto de Jaizkibel (7.8km, 5.84%). The climb comes in two sections with an easier stretch in between and levels out a bit towards the top. The difficult parts both have a gradient of 7-8%. While it is still too early for the main favourites to play their cards, we often see some reshuffling of the breakaway. The steep slopes is enough to send many riders out the back - both in the peloton and the breakaway. At the same time, the main favourites don't miss the opportunity to ask their teams to ride tempo as this is where the race needs to be made hard.

 

A fast descent is followed by a short stretch of flat roads and the uncategorized Alto de Gaintzurizketa and then it is time for the category 2 Alto de Arkale (2.7km, 6.3%) which is a rather constant climb and whose top is located with 71.4km to go.

 

Instead of continuing all the way to San Sebastian, the riders head back up the Jaizkibel climb and this has traditionally been the time for the favourites to play their cards. The riders who have no hopes of winning a final sprint, have usually launched attacks and while the early break has now often been caught, it has often just been a small group of climbers that have crested the summit in the lead positions.

 

This time the climb comes farther from the finish and with a late climb in the finale to use as a launch pad for attacks, the favourites may stay a bit more conservative. We will definitely see attacks from the peloton but there is a big chance that the climb will be used more to set a hard pace than to launch big offensives.

 

At the top, 53.9km remain and that’s a pretty long distance to keep a break alive. More riders will probably rejoin the favourites. The next flat section has traditionally been very difficult to control as the favourites have mostly had very few domestiques left but this year, less aggression could make it a bit harder to escape the peloton’s clutches.

 

The Gaintzurizketa and Arkala climbs form the perfect launch pads for late attacks but the latter has its top located 31km from the finish which makes it less important than it has been in the past. This time the riders continue all the way to the finish in San Sebastian and those final kilometres are mostly flat. The small Alto Miracruz which comes at the 3km from the line, has often been the scene for late attacks but now it is unlikely to play any role.

 

After the passage of the line on the big Boulevard in San Sebastian, the riders take on the 16.2km finishing circuit that is mostly flat but has a nasty challenge at the midpoint. The 3km climb to the Hotel San Sebastian has a 9% average gradient and sections of up to 22% and this will definitely be the scene for the big battle between the favourites. The top comes just 7.3km from the finish and they can be divided into two parts. First it is a pretty technical descent and then it is a flat run to the finish on the Boulevard. However, there are several corners to negotiate, meaning that it is no easy place to organize a determined chase. The race comes to its traditional flat finish on the Boulevard in San Sebastian which has both been the scene of sprints from small groups, solo victories and a decision from a handful of attackers.

 

 

 

The weather

While the other big Basque race, the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, is known for its cold and rain, that's certainly not the case for the Clasica San Sebastian which is held at an entirely different time of the year. Usually held in very hot conditions, the heat often takes its toll on the riders and makes the race one of attrition.

 

This year, however, it seems that the riders will be doing the race in unusual conditions. In the early stages, there may even be falling a bit of rain in what should be a very cloudy morning. Things will get better as they day goes and the sun may even break through towards the end of the race. However, the temperature will reach a maximum of just 21 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day, in particular on both the Jaizkibel and Arkale climbs. On the finishing circuit, they will also mostly have a crosswind. There will be a headwind on the final climb which will make it a bit less selective. On the descent, there will first be a crosswind and then a tailwind. In the final flat section, there will be a crosswind but the riders will gradually turn into a headwind for the final few hundred metres.

 

The favourites

As indicated above, the Clasica San Sebastian has traditionally been one of the harder races to predict. The Tour stars mix it up with riders with very little racing in their legs and the form level of both groups is very difficult to gauge. At the same time, tactical savvy and luck have played a crucial role on the flat final part. Those kilometres have been very difficult to control for the few domestiques which are left at this point in time and surprisingly often a late move has stayed clear all the way to the line. It is testament to the toughness of the course that no more than 3 riders have decided the race between them since Alejandro Valverde won a small sprint in 2008. Timing and brave riding are attributes that have often been rewarded in San Sebastian.

 

This year, however, the new course will completely reshape the race and it remains to be seen what impact it will have. Most probably, however, it will make for a more controlled with a much narrower list of potential winners. With a tough climb much closer to the finish, it tips the balance towards the climbers and the days when a plucky attacker can take the win are likely to be gone.

 

In the past, the favourites had to make their moves already on the Jaizkibel but with an option in the finale, they don’t need to do so. Instead, they can now use their teams to ride tempo on the first climbs and save their energy for the final climb. Even though the race will definitely be hard, we are unlikely to see the same kind of aggression on the traditional key climbs and it will probably be a bigger group than usual that descends the Jaizkibel.

 

Most importantly, the favourites are likely to have more domestiques at their side and this means that the run-in to San Sebastian will be easier to control. Even though we will probably see some attacks, most riders will save their energy for the final ascent. The finale is likely to be more controlled, with the action being saved for the final battle of the steep ascent.

 

The final climb is very tough and this means that the climbers will have a much bigger chance of making a difference. With a short, mostly downhill run back to the finish, it is definitely possible for a single rider to stay away to the finish. The new Clasica will be more about good climbing legs and less about tactics. However, descending skills are still important as there will be time to get back on. If a small group of favourites are still together after the descent, it will probably become the usual tactical race to the finish line but you need the climbing legs to be there. Finally, the flat finish means that a fast sprint is definitely no disadvantage in case a group arrives on the Boulevard together.

 

This 2014 edition is maybe even more open than it has been for years. The new course adds an extra level of uncertainty but most importantly all the major favourites have all had some kind of setback. Some of them looked very tired at the end of the Tour de France while others have had to deal with health issues. This opens the door for a surprise winner like Gallopin whom not many had tipped to win last year’s race.

 

One of the riders to have had a major setback is Alejandro Valverde. On paper the biggest one-day race in his home country suits the Movistar captain down to the ground but for some reason he has only won it once. Last year’s race clearly exemplified why the race has always been a difficult one for the greatest Spanish classics rider. Valverde was left isolated in the small group that emerged after the final passage of the Jaizkibel and this made it impossible for him to control the many attacks in the finale. Hence, Tony Gallopin escaped and Valverde’s final sprint was only good enough for second.

 

On paper the new course should suit Valverde a lot better. As most is set to be decided on the final climb, Valverde can expect to have teammates at his side for a lot longer. The Movistar captain is one of the very best riders for the kind of ascent that comes in the finale and there is a shorter flat stretch to control after the passage of the top. Being a great sprinter, Valverde will be hard to beat if a few strong climbers arrive at the finish together.

 

However, Valverde was clearly very tired at the end of the Tour de France and there is definitely no guarantee that he will be able to keep up with the best on the final climb. Valverde was clearly not among the best climbers in the final week of the Tour and there are definitely a lot of riders who have come out of the race a lot fresher.

 

On the other hand, Valverde always rides at a pretty high level and he is never too far off the mark. He is surrounded by a very strong team and can count on in-form Giovanni Visconti, Jose Herrada, Ion Izagirre and maybe the very inconsistent Benat Intxausti until very late in the race. Some of them may even be able to help their captain rejoin the leading riders after the final climb and keep things under control for a sprint from a small group.

 

It remains to be seen whether Valverde has recovered enough to follow the best on the final climb. However, he is definitely not the only rider who has come out of the Tour with a lot of fatigue in their bodies and as several other riders have had injury setbacks or may struggle on the new, harder course, he should still feature prominently in the race. Never too far off his best, Valverde stands out as the man to beat in his big home classic.

 

History shows that the Clasica San Sebastian is usually won by a rider who comes out of the Tour de France in good condition and so it is hard not to look the riders from La Grande Boucle to find the major favourites. While the old course suited classics riders well, the new, harder race should favour the climbers.

 

The in-form climber on the start list is definitely Romain Bardet. He may not have ended the race in the same excellent condition as he has at the midpoint but he was still riding greatly in the final week. His performance in the time trial proves that he still has something left in his legs and it now all depends on his recovery in the week between the two WorldTour races.

 

Bardet may be mostly known as a stage race rider but he is actually a great one-day racer as well. Earlier this year he finished 10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and short, steep climbs suit him well. The harder course should benefit him and even though he is not very fast in a sprint, he has a decent final kick. If he can drop the really fast riders on the final climb, there is a great chance that he will be the fastest rider in the group that arrives at the finish and if that’s the case, he can take the biggest one-day win of his career.

 

Bauke Mollema may have blown completely up in the final Tour de France time trial but that performance was actually not indicative of his form. In fact, the Dutchman was getting better and better as the race went on and he was riding a lot stronger in the Pyrenees than he did in the Alps.

 

Unlike many of the grand tour riders, Mollema is also a great one-day racer who has only missed the top 10 twice in the last 9 Ardennes classics. The harder course for Clasica San Sebastian suits him excellently and he has the big advantage of being really fast in a sprint. Last year he managed to end 9th in the race despite having been very tired in the final week of the Tour. This year he is coming out a lot stronger and this should put him in contention for the win.

 

Another rider who goes into the race with uncertainty about his condition is Philippe Gilbert. The Belgian planned to use the Tour de Wallonie to prepare for the Clasica San Sebastian and the Eneco Tour where his BMC team expected him to score WorldTour points. Both races were big objectives for the former world champion who hasn’t raced since the Belgian championships in late June.

 

This means that nobody really knows how strong he is but with both races featuring high on his list of goals, he will be expected to be pretty strong. However, an infection in his lungs forced him to miss the Wallonian race and the health issue is a definite setback for him. He will both have missed important training and racing and he is up against riders who have great condition for the Tour de France.

 

Furthermore, the new course doesn’t suit him as well as the old one as the final climb may be a bit too steep for him. He is unlikely to keep up with the best climbers on that ascent and will probably have to ride himself back into contention. He is surrounded by a formidable team that includes in-form riders like Tejay van Garderen and Greg Van Avermaet and with those two riders at his side, he may benefit from his great sprint to win the race.

 

If Gilbert is not up for the challenge, Van Avermaet and van Garderen are both capable of winning the race themselves. On paper, the new course should be too hard for the Belgian but in the Tour, he climbed better than ever before and even finished in the top 50 on a mountain stage. On the shorter climbs, he was one of the strongest riders in the race and secured several top 10 results.

 

It will be hard for Van Avermaet to keep up with the best on the final climb but he may not be too far off the mark. If there is some kind of tactical battle in the front group, he may rejoin them on the descent. If Gilbert is still there, he will be riding in support of his leader but otherwise he will get the chance to sprint for himself or maybe play the team card by going on the attack.

 

Van Garderen was still very strong in the final week of the race but is not a real one-day rider. On theother hand, the new course should play into the hands of the climbers and make it a race of attrition. The final climb may be a bit too explosive for him but his great Tour condition should count for a lot in this race.

 

He goes into the race as a domestique but it would be no surprise if he emerges as the best BMC climber. He is no fast sprinter but has excellent skills as a rouleur and if he manages to get clear in the flat section to the finish, he could win the race.

 

A dark horse for the race is Peter Sagan. At the moment, he is on the provisional start list but we would actually be pretty surprised if he takes the start. While he still seemed to be physically okay at the end of the Tour, he seemed to be mentally tired. Honestly, we doubt that he will have maintained his condition sufficiently to win a race that should be too hard for him.

 

On the other hand, you can never rule out a Sagan win in this terrain and if he makes it over the Jaizkibel with the best, the final climb is not too long for him to handle. At its steepest sections, it may be a bit too hard for him but due to his great descending skills he could bring himself back in contention. If that’s the case, it will be hard for him to secure a sprint finish as everybody will be riding against him but if he manages to do so, he will be the major favourite.

 

Last year’s winner Tony Gallopin did a fantastic Tour de France but rode a bit inconsistently in the final week. He didn’t end the race on a similarly strong note and seemed to be pretty tired at the end. On the other hand, he will be extremely motivated for his title defence.

 

The new course doesn’t suit him perfectly as the final climb is probably a bit too hard for him. However, he has been climbing better than ever before and he has the main asset of being a very fast sprinter. If there’s a tactical battle in the finale he may get back in contention and then he will be hard to beat in a sprint.

 

On paper, the course is tailor-made for Daniel Moreno who excels on short, steep climbs and has a very fast sprint for the flat finish. The main question is his form as he hasn’t done any racing since the Dauphiné. Two years ago, however, he last had a similar schedule and back then he was in outstanding condition for the Vuelta a Burgos which was his first race back. If he is in the same kind of form this time around he will be very hard to beat on this course.

 

The course also suits Daniel Martin perfectly but the Irishman is unlikely to be in great condition. After he crashed out of the Giro, he has done very little racing but in the Tour of Austria, he was back at a decent level, finishing 15th overall. Since then his condition is likely to have improved a lot. It will be hard for him to keep up with the best Tour riders but with a fast sprint and explosive climbing skills, he couldn’t have designed a much better course.

 

Tim Wellens is the second Lotto Belisol card after Gallopin and the youngster is in outstanding condition at the moment. In the Tour de Wallonie, he was clearly the strongest rider and blew the race to pieces on the Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons before escaping on his own in the finale of the queen stage. This race is obviously a different level and he still needs to show that he can feature prominently in the finale of a big WorldTour classic. On the other hand, the Giro seems to have made him a lot stronger and he definitely has the characteristics to shine on this course.

 

Another rider who excelled in the Tour de Wallonie is Zdenek Stybar but this course is probably too hard for the versatile Czech. He will probably need the race to become rather tactical to have a chance. On the other hand, if riders start to look at each other in the final flat section, he may get back into contention and his fast sprint makes him an obvious danger in the flat finish.

 

One year ago Mikel Nieve played a prominent role in this race and the new harder course should suit him really well. He started the Tour in great condition but illness slowed him down in the second week. However, the ended the race with a great showing in the final two mountain stages and he will be highly motivated for his home race. His main problem is that the flat finish makes it very hard for him to win the race but we won’t be surprised if he turns out to be the strongest climber. If that’s the case, anything is possible.

 

Giovanni Visconti is likely to ride the race in service of Alejandro Valverde but if the Spaniard is not up for the challenge, he may get the chance to play his own cards. Having crashes in the Down Under Classic, he came into the Tour short of condition but got better as the race went on and produced a storming ride on the Pla d’Adet in the final week. This course may be a little bit too hard for him but if he is at 100%, his climbing abilities shouldn’t be underestimated. In case of a sprint finish, he will be very hard to beat and he could be the joker in the Movistar line-up.

 

Simon and Adam Yates both line up in a classic that suits them really well and they have had a storming start to their professional career. While Simon has just had a small break after having done the first two weeks of the Tour, Adam won the GP Larciano and finished 5th in the Giro della Toscana last weekend. Both have proved that they can compete with the best at the WorldTour level but obviously there’s a big difference between finishing with best and winning the races. It may still be a bit too early for them to win this race but with a short, steep climb and a flat finish, it suits the punchy climbers really well.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez is clearly not at 100% yet and this race may still come a bit too early for him. In the past, he would have had no chance to win in San Sebastian but the new course makes him a winner candidate. If he is at his best, he is virtually unbeatable on the final climb but he will still have to maintain his gap all the way to the finish. However, he has won Il Lombardia twice in a row, and that race has a very similar finale. He will probably need to be a lot stronger to win this race but you can never rule out a win for Rodriguez.

 

***** Alejandro Valverde

**** Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema

*** Philippe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Tejay van Garderen, Peter Sagan, Tony Gallopin, Daniel Moreno, Simon Gerrans

** Daniel Martin, Tim Wellens, Zdenek Stybar, Mikel Nieve, Giovanni Visconti, Adam Yates, Simon Yates, Joaquim Rodriguez

* Frank Schleck, Laurens Ten Dam, Haimar Zubeldia, Nicolas Roche, Michael Rogers, Tanel Kangert, Mikel Landa, Jose Herrada