If it hadn’t been for the intense heat, most riders would have had a pretty easy day in today’s third stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné but tomorrow things should again be trickier. The stage to Gap ends with the well-known climb of the Col de Manse and the technical, difficult descent to the finish and while a breakaway will probably decide the stage honours, the GC riders have to be on their toes to avoid losing unexpected time in the finale.

 

The course

After today’s stage that had a difficult start and an easy end, things are turned around for the fourth stage that is a real classic. The 167.5km stage from Montelimar to Gap has the traditional finish with the Col de Manse and its difficult descent that has been used a few times in the Tour de France over the last few years and always offers very exciting racing.

 

The first part of the stage has a few small climbs but generally consists of a long, uphill drag from the start at 134m of altitude to Gap 839m above sea level. The only categorized climb is the category 4 Cote de Rosans (1.5km, 3.6%) at the 80.5km mark and the riders will contest the intermediate sprint shortly before reaching Gap for the first time.

 

In Gap, the riders won't cross the finish line but instead take on the famous 25.5km circuit featuring the Col de Manse on the northern outskirts of the city. It's a difficult affair as it starts off directly with the 9.6km category 2 climb whose average gradient is 5.2%. At the top 12.5km remain and they are all downhill. The first part is very technical but the final 3.5km are on a long, straight, slightly descending road that leads directly to the finish.

 

The finish with the Col de Manse is a famous one. In the 2003 Tour de France, Joseba Beloki spectacularly crashed out of the race on another descent from the climb, with Lance Armstrong showing his off-road skills to avoid being brought down by his Spanish rival. In the 2011 edition of the race, Alberto Contador who had lost time in the Pyreness, attacked on the Col de Manse, dropped the Schleck brothers and increased his gap on the wet descent, prompting the Luxembourgish stars to complain about the layout of the course.

 

Last year the finale was back on the course and this time Rui Costa took the first of his two stage wins by emerging as the strongest from a breakaway. Behind, Contador attacked Chris Froome repeatedly but failed to shake off the race leader. Instead, he tried to accelerate on the technical descent but risked too much and hit the deck, holding up Froome in the process. The pair managed to rejoin their rivals but the incident was the topic of a lot of discussion later on.

 

 

 

The weather

In the first three stages, the riders have had to fight against a massive heat that has taken its toll and left many riders fatigued and struggling with adaptation to the new conditions. Many will be pleased to know that an evening rainfall will bring along cooler weather and things should be a lot more pleasant in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Again it will be a day with beautiful sunshine but the temperature at the finish in Gap will reach a maximum of just 21 degrees, making it a completely different affair than today’s brutal heat. There will be a light wind that will change from an easterly to a southwesterly direction, meaning that the riders may have a headwind in the beginning but it should soon turn into a cross-tailwind. On the final circuit, the riders will have a tailwind up the climb and a headwind back down the descent.

 

The favourites

The strong headwind made today’s stage a pretty easy affair for the GC riders and most of them will have been pleased to get the chance to recover after two hard days. Tomorrow they will have to be a lot more on their guards and as the stage to Gap is extremely tricky and has caught big names out in past editions of the Tour de France.

 

As the finale featured in the 2011 and 2013 editions of the Tour de France, most of the riders know it very well and so will be intimately familiar with its many pitfalls. Most notably they know all about the difficulty of the final descent that provided so much drama in both of those Tour de France stages. Hence, we can expect the finale of the stage to be pretty nervous and even though all the GC riders are likely to finish together, we should be in for a very exciting finale.

 

History proves that a breakaway usually makes it in this finale and it is certainly no coincidence. The Col de Manse is so tough that the sprinters have no chance but the final climb is too easy for the GC riders to make their mark. Hence, it is a stage with no obvious favourite, meaning that it is unclear who will chase down the early break, and this makes it likely that the break will stay away. Most teams will head into the stage with an aggressive mindset and the most likely outcome is that an escapee will prevail in Gap.

 

Compared to the recent Tour stages, however, there is a bigger chance that things will come back together in the finale. In the Tour de France, the stage has usually come at a point where big time gaps have opened up and so the early break has always been non-dangerous for the GC riders. In this race, the time differences are still pretty small and the riders that are strong enough to win in such a hard finale are mostly pretty close to the overall lead. If some of those riders get into the early break, Team Sky will have to keep them under a short leash and this could open the door for some of the teams that have missed the break to close the final small gap ahead of the Col de Manse. Consequently, there is a chance that it will be up to the peloton to decide the stage win.

 

In any case, we can expect a fierce battle in the first part of the stage and it will probably take more than an hour before the break finally takes off. Most teams will try to join the early break and as the first part of the stage is not overly tough, it is not that easy to predict which riders will eventually make it. In such stages, a fair bit of luck is involved and the break that gets clear could very well contain a lot of riders that have no chance to win in such a difficult finale.

 

When the elastic finally snaps, Team Sky will take control and make sure that the break doesn’t get an advantage that puts Froome’s race lead under threat. If the gap is sufficiently small near the end, we may see one of the teams that have missed out, initiate a chase as it is so often the case in this kind of breakaway stages. The most likely scenario is that Sky will make sure that no dangerous riders make the break and so the group will probably stay away. However, a battle for the stage win among the race favourites cannot be excluded.

 

In any case, we should see some very nervous racing on the Col de Manse. In the Tour de France, Alberto Contador has always used this climb to go on the attack and he may give it a try again tomorrow. As he is unlikely to drop Froome and there are harder stages coming up, however, we don’t expect him to make a move on the climb. Instead, Sky are likely to set a hard pace to keep the situation under control but we may see some attacks from other GC riders.

 

History proves that the climb is hard enough to produce a minor shake-up of the GC but it is unlikely to pose any threat for the real top riders. The real battle could very well play out on the descent which is very technical, and we will probably see a fierce battle near the top of the climb as all riders want to enter it in one of the first positions.

 

In last year’s Tour de France, Contador tried to attack Froome on the descent but as this is mainly preparation for the Spaniard, we don’t think that he will take that kind of risk. Instead, we may see Vincenzo Nibali make a move. As Froome won’t take too many risks either, he may get a small gap near the end but as the final part is more about power, we expect Froome and Sky to reel in the Italian before the line. It’s not impossible that some of the GC riders will be caught out on the descent but we don’t expect the stage to produce any difference between the real top riders.

 

As said, we put our money on a breakaway to decide the stage but only a select few riders are strong enough to prevail in this kind of finish. To survive the Col de Manse, you have to be a really good climber but all riders too close to the overall lead won’t be allowed to get up the road. This narrows down the number of potential winners considerably.

 

As Alejandro Valverde has decided to prepare for the Tour de France at the Route du Sud, Movistar are at this race without any of their major stars. Igor Anton is showing some solid condition but the team won’t back the Basque fully, meaning that most of their riders are free to seek chase wins. This could open the door for Giovanni Visconti to put months of suffering behind him by winning at the WorldTour level.

 

Visconti crashed hard in his very first race of the season at the Cancer Council Classic and fractured his tibia. As a consequence, he missed most of the early season and didn’t return to competition before April. Since then he has been building his form but based on his performance in stage 2, he seems to be getting closer to his best level.

 

Visconti’s big goals are the Italian championships and the Tour de France and so he cannot allow himself to be too far from his best condition. Tomorrow’s stage suits him perfectly and if he makes it into the right break, he will be a danger man. At his best, he is both a formidable climber – he won on the Col du Galibier in last year’s Giro – and an excellent descender and he has a very fast sprint. At the same time, he is very strong in the terrain that characterizes the first part of the stage which makes it more likely that he will be in the break.

 

Of course there is a chance that there will be better climbers in the break but at the top, Visconti should not be too far off the mark. A good descent could bring him back in contention and in a sprint he will be very hard to beat. Hence, he is our stage winner pick.

 

This stage has “Sylvain Chavanel” written all over it. The IAM captain was wise enough to lose a bit of time in stage 2 and so should have the freedom to go on the attack. By finishing on the podium in both the Four Days of Dunkirk and the Tour of Belgium, he has proved that he is back in form after an illness-plagued classics campaign and even though he did a poor time trial, he should still be at a high level.

 

Chavanel is a solid climber on this kind of ascent and he is one of the best descenders in the peloton. That will allow him to get back in contention if he loses a bit of ground on the way up. Finally, he has a very fast sprint and is excellent at picking the right breakaway. Tomorrow could be the day when he takes his first win for IAM.

 

Katusha had a lot of hopes for this race but their GC campaign has already come to nothing as Daniel Moreno, Simon Spilak, Yury Trofimov and Egor Silin have all lost considerable time. This will allow them to go on the attack and in fact all of them – except Moreno who is still too close to the lead – are good stage winner picks.

 

Especially Silin is looking good right now. The young Russian did a great time trial which is usually not his forte and even though he lost a bit of ground on the Col du Beal, he seems to be going strongly. If he makes it into the break, he could be the strongest climber and this makes him a good stage winner pick.

 

With Michal Kwiatkowski having lost a bit of time, Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be chasing stage wins in this race and they will do their utmost to be part of the early break. In the time trial and mountain stage, Julian Alaphilippe proved that he is currently in excellent condition and today he took a huge turn on the front inside the final two kilometres of the race. In the Volta a Catalunya, the neo-pro proved that he can already mix it up at the WorldTour level and tomorrow’s stage suits him really well. He is a solid climber, a great descender and very fast in a sprint. If one adds his great form, he is a definite threat if he makes the break.

 

His teammate Jan Bakelants is another winner candidate. The Belgian is a master in picking the right break and the finale suits him really well. At his best, he climbs solidly and he is a great descender. Most importantly, he is excellent at managing the situation in a breakaway and knows how to time his moves. He is looking for his first win for Omega Pharma-Quick Step and tomorrow’s stage could be a good opportunity.

 

If the early break is caught and things come back together, Tony Gallopin is a great winner candidate. The Frenchman climbed excellently on the Col du Beal to finish 15th and this means that he is unlikely to be allowed to go into the early break. That’s a bit of a shame as the stage suits him perfectly but he may get his chance if the break gets caught. At the moment, he seems to be one of the best climbers and among the GC riders, he is certainly one of the fastest finishers. If things come back together, we will put our money on the Clasica San Sebastian winner.

 

His biggest rival will be Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole is not in his best condition yet but this climb should be manageable for him. He is one of the very best descenders in the peloton and he has a very fast sprint. If it comes down to a sprint from a select group of favourites, it could turn into a battle between Gallopin and Kwiatkowski.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Lieuwe Westra did a poor time trial but in stages 2 and 3 he showed solid condition. Today he launched a great attack in the finale and he proved to be very difficult to reel in. Astana have proved that they are not afraid of going on the attack and that could allow Westra to join the early break. He seems to be riding well at the moment and with strong climbing skills and a decent sprint, he is a solid winner pick.

 

Cofidis have lots of good climbers in the race. One of them is Nicolas Edet who is not a GC rider but really great in this kind of finale. He did well on the Col du Beal and today he was part of the strong Voigt group that escaped in the finale. If he is part of the break, he could be the strongest climber and give Cofidis a very important victory.

 

Bob Jungels showed his great form in the time trial where he finished third but over the last few days he has been suffering from stomach problems and the heat. With the conditions set to be colder, he could again be allowed the chance to show off his great condition. He has worked a lot on his climbing over the last few weeks and should be one of the strongest if he makes it into the break.

 

We have already mentioned the Katusha duo of Yury Trofimov and Simon Spilak. The former arrived late from Russia while the latter suffered in the heat in the first few stages, and so they have both lost a bit of time. Tomorrow should be a lot colder, opening the door for Spilak, while Trofimov should start to find his legs. Both are far down on GC and great climbers, making them both solid winner candidates.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giovanni Visconti

Other winner candidates: Sylvain Chavanel, Egor Silin

Outsiders: Julian Alaphilippe, Jan Bakelants, Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski

Jokers: Lieuwe Westra, Nicolas Edet, Bob Jungels, Yury Trofimov, Simon Spilak