As expected, today’s stage ended up being one for a breakaway and many riders were disappointed to have missed the move that decided the race. They will get an immediate chance to make redemption as the fifth stage looks like more of the same and it would be a big surprise if an early escape doesn’t make it to the finish.

The course

The riders are now very close to the Alps but before heading into the high mountains, they will take on another very tough affair whose many climbs means that it is up or down almost all day. Like the previous day's stage, the fifth leg and its 189.5km from Sisteron to La Mure has a pretty easy start as the first third of the race is almost completely flat. Passing close to Gap, the riders will again go up the category 2 Col de Manse (6.6km, 6.2%), albeit from another and harder side that they did one day earlier. That ascent and the subsequent category 3 Cote du Motty (2.3km, 8.1%) will serve as a warm-up for the difficult finale.

It starts after 122.5km of racing when the riders reach the bottom of the category 3 Cote du Pont-Haut (2.7km, 7.4%) and from there, there will be little room for recovery. 1.5km from the top, the riders reach the finishing circuit and 1km further up the road, they cross the finish line for the first time, contesting the intermediate sprint in the process.

The riders now take on the 61.5km finishing circuit that has a tough start as they start off by going up the category 3 Col de Malissol (2km, 8.8%) whose short descent and a gradual ascending road leads to the category 2 Col de la Morte (3.1km, 8.4%), summiting 50km from the finish. A long, very technical descent leads to the category 2 Cote de Laffrey (6.3km, 6.2%) and from there 20.5km remain. The roads continues to rise for a few kilometres and then it's rolling terrain back to the finish in La Mure, with the final kilometres being predominantly flat. The finale is not too technical, with a sharp turn and a roundabout being the only challenges before the riders do the final right-hand turn that leads onto the short 220m finishing straight.

The weather

Many riders are pleased that the sweltering heat that dominated the first stages has now left France and even though it is still pretty hot, the temperatures are a lot more bearable. It will be more of the same in tomorrow’s stage as it will be a beautiful sunny day with a maximum temperature at the finish of 23 degrees. A few clouds should make their presence felt as the day goes on but due to the early start, they won’t have too much impact on the race.

The hard wind that dominated the first stages, has also abated a lot and tomorrow there will only be a very light breeze from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first flat section before turning into a headwind by the time the climbing starts. On the finishing circuit, there will be a headwind in the first part and a tailwind back to the finish in La Mure. 1km from the finish, the riders will turn into a cross-headwind for the final short section.

The favourites

As most had predicted, today’s stage turned out to be one for an early breakaway as NetApp-Endura was the only team among the ones that had missed the move, to show any interest in trying to catch the break. Tomorrow’s stage should be another one for the aggressive riders and while there was a chance that today’s stage could have been one for the GC riders, there should be virtually no chance that the break won’t make it tomorrow.

Compared to the last few days, the climbs are a lot steeper and this stage should be way too tough for the sprinters. As the climbs are located too far from the finish for the GC riders to make a difference, the stage has no obvious favourite and so it is hard to imagine that any team will try to keep things together. The only factor that could change the script is that one or more teams that have missed the early break, try to open the race again but due to the very hard terrain, it takes a very strong team to do so. As there may be more opportunities for escapees later in the week, there is a big chance that those teams will all prefer to save their energy for later.

This means that we can again expect a big battle in the early part of the race as most teams want to get a rider in the early break. It would be no surprise if it takes more than an hour for the group to take off and for Sky, it will be a hard task to make sure that the group doesn’t contain any dangerous riders. They may be willing to relinquish their hold on the jersey for a few days – in fact they planned to do so in today’s stage – but they cannot allow a very strong rider too much leeway. To avoid having to chase too hard in the lumpy second part, they need to be on their guards in the flat early section.

When the break takes off, it will probably be a day of controlling for Sky for the rest of the stage. The final climb is located too far from the finish to make a move and while today’s stage offered a bit of attacking from the GC riders that have already lost a bit of time, we are unlikely to see the same kind of aggression tomorrow. To keep the advantage all the way to the finish will cost a lot of energy as the section after the final climb is pretty tough and so the GC riders probably prefer to save energy for later. When the break has taken off, it will probably be a rather uneventful day for the peloton, with Sky just tapping along at a steady pace.

Due to the very easy first part, it is very hard to predict which riders will make it into the break. On flat roads, luck plays a very important role and most of the riders will have a chance to make. However, it is far from everybody that can win this stage as the final part is very hard and it will take a very good pair of climbing legs to add this stage to the palmares.

Solid climbing skills are one important attribute but tomorrow a fast finish will be important as well. Today it all came down to legs on the Col de Manse but tomorrow it will be hard for the best climber to stay away all the way to the finish. There is a bigger chance that a group will battle for the win in the finale and it will be a lot more important to have a fast sprint. At the same, the climbing is a bit harder than today’s and this narrows the list of possible winners further down.

Today’s stage was an obvious opportunity for Thomas Voeckler whose performances in the opening time trial and on the Col du Beal indicate that he is riding really well at the moment. As he was pretty close to the lead, however, it was always hard for him to be allowed any room to go clear and today he seemed to deliberately lose some time in the finale.

As he is now more than 7 minutes behind, he should have much more room to maneuver and tomorrow’s stage suits him really well. He is a master in picking the right breakaway and the hilly finale has his name written all over it. As he has shown great climbing form, he is likely to be one of the best climbers if he makes it into the escapee and so he should make the selection over the Cote de Laffey. Even though he is not known for his sprinting skills, he has a solid final kick and if he is up against faster rivals, he knows how to time a late move. Last year he won a stage from a breakaway in this race and tomorrow he could do it again.

We had made Giovanni Visconti out favourite for today’s stage but the Italian missed the move. That should open the door for him to try again today and it is again a stage that suits him really well. Visconti crashed hard in his very first race of the season at the Cancer Council Classic and fractured his tibia. As a consequence, he missed most of the early season and didn’t return to competition before April. Since then he has been building his form but based on his performance in stage 2, he seems to be getting closer to his best level.

Visconti’s big goals are the Italian championships and the Tour de France and so he cannot allow himself to be too far from his best condition. At his best, he is both a formidable climber – he won on the Col du Galibier in last year’s Giro – and an excellent descender and he has a very fast sprint. Our only slight concern is that he has not yet shown too much form but he may also have held something back deliberately. If he makes it into the break, he has all the skills to win.

Sylvain Chavanel tried hard to make today’s break but he failed in his attempt. Tomorrow he will make a new attempt and the flat finale should suit him better than today’s where it was mostly down to climbing legs. Having recently finished 3rd in the Tour of Belgium, he is certainly in great condition and he has the skills to shine in this kind of stage. He may be up against better climbers if he makes the break but he knows how to pace himself and has time to get back in a terrain that suits him down to the ground. Finally, he is a fast sprinter that will be hard to beat if a small group arrives at the finish.

Lieuwe Westra did a poor time trial but since then he has showed great condition. Yesterday he launched a great attack in the finale and he proved to be very difficult to reel in. Today he tried an attack on the Col de Manse before supporting his captains all the way to the finish. In fact he seemed to be at ease on the final climb and seems to finally have found his best legs again. Astana have proved that they are not afraid of going on the attack and that could allow Westra to join the early break. Being climbing better than he has done for a very long time and being an excellent rouleur, we wouldn’t be surprised if he emerges as the strongest in a break on the final climb and then he has the strength to hold on to the finish in addition to having a pretty fast sprint.

Cyril Gautier is another escape artist on the Europcar roster. The Frenchman knows how to hit the rights escapes but he rarely finishes it off. This year, however, he has been a lot stronger and he was very impressive in Paris-Nice. He may not be quite at that level now but he seems to be riding solidly. He excels in this kind of lumpy terrain and is a very decent climber. Furthermore, he has a fast sprint and he will be a danger man if he makes it into the group.

NetApp-Endura missed the move in today’s stage and they will do their best not to miss out again. If they can put Bartosz Huzarski into the break, they have a very good opportunity to come away with the stage win. The Pole seems to be riding really well at the moment, having done a good time trial and climbed solidly on the Col de Beal. He is not a rider for the really long climbs but this terrain suits him really well. Furthermore, he has a pretty fast sprint. He has come close to stage wins in both the Giro and Vuelta and it is just a matter of time before he takes a big win in a WorldTour race.

Finally, we will select our jokers. Cofidis have a lot of climbers in this race and so it must have been a big disappointment for them to miss today’s break. Tomorrow they have another chance and they have several cards to play. Their best one could be Nicolas Edet who seems to be riding very well at the moment and excels in this kind of terrain. With good climbing skills and a fast sprint, he is perfectly suited to this stage.

Garmin-Sharp are mostly here to support Andrew Talansky but they will probably also try to be part of tomorrow’s action. Alex Howes rose to fame when he did a fabulous Amstel Gold Race two years ago and since then he has become a lot stronger. He suffered a lot from illness in the Tour of California but seems to have left those health issues behind. This is the terrain that suits him the best and he would be a very good candidate if he makes it into the break.

Yesterday we pointed to the Katusha trio of Egor Silin, Simon Spilak and Yury Trofimov and it ended up being the latter that took the win. Spilak doesn’t seem to be at his best level but Silin is clearly riding really well. The Russian is a great climber and his opening time trial indicates that he is riding well. This stage suits him perfectly and he has the skills to make it two in a row for Katusha.

Ag2r have one of the strongest teams in this race and have several cards to play. As they have lost a bit of time in the GC, their main target is a stage win and they will definitely try to have a rider in the break. Mikael Cherel seems to be a very good candidate. He is very strong in this kind of terrain and has been knocking on the door for a big win for a very long time. Tomorrow could be his day.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Thomas Voeckler

Other winner candidates: Giovanni Visconti, Sylvain Chavanel

Outsiders: Lieuwe Westra, Cyril Gautier, Bartosz Huzarski

Jokers: Nicolas Edet, Alex Howes, Egor Silin, Mikael Cherel