The GC riders were expected to have an easy day in today’s fifth stage but it proved to be a lot harder than most had predicted. They hope to get a chance to recover for the weekend in tomorrow’s sixth stage which could be one for the sprinters but where a series of climbs in the finale could make it more for the puncheurs.

 

The course

The weekend is extremely tough but before the riders get to the decisive stages of the race, they will get a short chance to recover in what should be the easiest stage of the race. The sixth stage brings them over 178.5km from Grenoble to Poisy and takes place on the western outskirts of the Alps. This time, however, the route avoids the major difficulties and the stage is predominantly flat.

 

No Dauphiné stage is completely flat though and the final part is very tricky. The first is slightly rolling, with the Category 4 Cote de la Betaz (1.5km, 4.4%) at the midpoint being the biggest challenge. A long flat section leads to the intermediate sprint which comes just 26km from the line and then the tricky finale starts

 

First the riders go up the category 4 Cote de Marcellaz-Albanais  (4.6km, 4.1%) and from there it is up or down all the way to the finish 19.5km later. The category 4 Cote de Ronzy (1.7km, 6.3%) is the biggest challenge and comes just 7.5km from the finish but the riders still need to overcome another nasty climb to get the chance to win the stage.

 

Instead of going straight to the finish, the riders do a tricky little circuit. With 2.5km to go, the riders go up the small uncategorized Cote de la Route des Vignes which has a very steep 15% section and whose top comes just 1.1km from the line. From there the road finally flattens and it is mostly straight. However, there are three roundabouts to negotiate with the final one coming just 100mfrom the line.

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the riders have enjoyed summerlike conditions for the Criterium du Dauphiné but things may change for tomorrow’s stage. The race will kick off under a beautiful sunny sky and the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 25 degrees at the midpoint of the day.

 

However, rain is set to fall in the middle of the afternoon and the temperature will drop to just 20 degrees.  As the stages is set to finish before 15.00 local time, they may end the race on the dry roads but there is a definite risk that tomorrow’s finale will be impacted by wet roads.

 

The wind will be a bit stronger than it has been in recent days, with a moderate breeze coming from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will generally have a headwind for most of the day until they turn into a crosswind 40km from the line. The riders will have a crosswind on the first climb and a headwind on the second one. When they do the final small loop in the finale, they will first have a tailwind but till turn into a headwind just before they hit the 15% climb. After the top, there’s a short crosswind section before the riders turn into a headwind for the sprint

 

The favourites

While stage 4 and 5 were almost destined to be won by escapees, tomorrow’s stage is a very tricky affair that can have a number of different outcomes. Even though the first part is pretty flat and easy to control for the sprint teams, the finale is so hilly that the fast finishers will be a bit uncertain about their ability to handle the difficulties. Especially the final 15% climb can make a pretty big difference and could open the door for the puncheurs who may fancy their chances.

 

This makes the stage one of the most unpredictable of the entire race. An early break could make it to the finish, a strong attacker could take off in the finale and it could be decided in a sprint. In the latter scenario, one cannot expect all sprinters to be present and even though they make it over the climb with the peloton, they may not be in a position to do the sprint.

 

Earlier this week Arnaud Demare said that his only chance for a stage win came on the third day of racing, indicating that he expects the finale of today’s stage to be too hard. Being the fastest sprinter in the race, much will depend on how FDJ approach the stage and if they decide not to chase, a breakaway has a bigger chance.

 

Demare may have some doubts but at the same time he is a great classics rider and those final climbs should not be enough to challenge him too much. A one-kilometre climb with a 15% section is not too different from what you can find in the Flemish classics where he has performed really well. Furthermore, he has won the Four Days of Dunkirk twice in a row and in that race he survived much harder climbing to come away with the win.

 

As Demare didn’t win stage 3 and GC rider Kenny Elissonde lost time in today’s stage, FDJ cannot allow themselves to let this opportunity pass away. We would be pretty surprised if they don’t do their fair share of the pace-setting. They are likely to get assistance from Giant-Shimano that is beaming of confidence after Nikias Arndt’s stage win and Orica-GreenEDGE may also have set their sights on this stage. As the first part of the stage is pretty easy and the escapees will be hampered by a headwind, the race should be pretty easy to control until the finale.

 

As this is the final opportunity for non-climbers, we can expect a very fast and aggressive start but in the rather easy terrain, it should be possible for the sprint teams to make sure that the break is not too strong. We expect them to take control pretty early to avoid the gap getting too big and with several teams having a clear interest in a bunch sprint, we expect that things will come back together for the finale.

 

We can expect a lot of attacks on the final two categorized climbs and it will be very difficult for the sprint teams to keep things under control. At the same time, they cannot allow themselves to go too fast as they need to keep their sprinters fresh for the finale. Furthermore, we can expect teams like Orica-GreenEDGE and BMC that are led by classics riders to try to put the sprinters under pressure by setting a hard tempo on the ascents.

 

The headwind will be a clear advantage for the sprinters and as several teams have an interest in making things fast in the finale, it will be hard for the late attackers to stay away. If the roads are wet, they may have a bigger chance but the odds are definitely on a sprint finish. The main question is which riders will be present and have the legs in the dash to the line.

 

Despite his own doubts, we still regard Demare as the favourite to win the stage. As a great classics rider, he should be able to overcome those climbs and in the past he has proved that he has the skills to sprint even after a very hard race. He may drop back a few positions on the final climb but there will be time to move back into position and he can count on Arthur Vichot to assist him in the finale.

 

The technical finale with a roundabout very close to the finish should suit his explosive sprinting style perfectly and his bike-handling skills are very good. However, the same can’t be said about his positioning skills and this makes things a bit trickier.

 

There is no doubt that Demare is the fastest rider in the race but if he fails to get into position for the sprint, it will be hard to win, especially as the finishing straight is extremely short. He is usually very reliant on his strong lead-out train but the climbs may be a bit too tough for the likes of Mickael Delage and William Bonnet. Yoann Offredo is hampered by a fractured sternum and this means that Pierrick Fedrigo and Arthur Vichot could be his key riders in the finale. They don’t have very much lead-out experience and this will make things a lot harder for Demare. He needs to be in a good position for the final roundabout and if he isn’t, it will all be too late. There is certainly no guarantee that Demare will win this stage – in fact there is a big chance that he won’t – but as the fastest rider and a solid climber, he must be the favorite.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have several cards to play in this race and they could do the sprint for Simon Gerrans, Jens Keukeleire, Leigh Howard and Daryl Impey. Howard crashed a few days ago and doesn’t seem to be firing on all cylinders so we doubt that he will be the protected sprinter. In stage 3, they had planned to do the sprint for Impey but as he wasn’t feeling well, they made a late change of plans to ride for Keukeleire instead, with the Belgian finishing 6th.

 

With such a lumpy finale that makes it look almost like an Ardennes classic, however, tomorrow could be a day for Gerrans. The Liege-Bastogne-Liege champion is a master in picking out select stages to target and when he does so, he usually takes the win. He has said nothing about his ambitions for this race and he is mainly here to prepare for the Tour de France. However, this stage suits him down to the ground and it could be a very good day for him to test his legs one final time ahead of the Tour. If Orica-GreenEDGE can make things hard in the finale, Gerrans should be a lot fresher than his rivals and by beating Peter Sagan in last year’s Tour de France, he has proved that he is a very capable sprinter. With a very strong team to bring him into position, he has all the cards on his side and if he gets through the final roundabout ahead of the pure sprinters, he has the speed to finish it off in such a short sprint.

 

Nikias Arndt proved to be in excellent condition when he won stage 3 and today he showed that his climbing legs are also very good. While most of the sprinters were far off the pace, Arndt finished in the second big group, just 4.25 behind stage winner Simon Spilak. That speaks volumes about his great condition and means that he should be able to handle tomorrow’s climbs as well.

 

On paper the stage is better suited to Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg who excels on these short, steep climbs, but he crashed in today’s stage and may abandon the race. This means that Arndt is the sole captain of the race and with his good condition, he should benefit from the harder finale. Last Tuesday he proved how fast he is and there is a good chance that he will take a second win tomorrow.

 

Yannick Martinez is fast but he is usually not fast enough to beat the pure sprinters. He is a pretty good climber though and this finale should suit him really well. In this race, he has been climbing better than usual and has finished far ahead of the other sprinters in the mountains. He proved his good condition in stage 3 when he finished fourth and if his faster rivals are fatigued in the finale, he could take the win.

 

Lotto Belisol got close to a stage win with Kris Boeckmans in stage 3 but we think that tomorrow’s stage will be a bit too hard for the Belgian. Instead, the team is likely to support Jurgen Roelandts who is showing good condition. As a classics specialist, he should be able to handle the amount of climbing and he is a very capable sprinter at the end of a hard race. In his first professional years, he won a few bunch sprints and even though he doesn’t have the same kind of speed now, he is definitely able to win this kind of sprint.

 

The stage suits Greg Van Avermaet perfectly and the Belgian seems to be riding really well at the moments, having made it into the second big group in today’s stage. While the climbs will hamper most of his rivals, they are a definite advantage for Van Avermaet who is surrounded by a very strong team of climbers that could make things hard in the finale. In a flat sprint, he would have no chance against the faster rivals but in this kind of finish, he definitely has a shot.

 

Gianni Meersman is out of the race due to stomach problems and so Omega Pharma-Quick Step have to come up with a new plan. That plan could be youngster Julian Alaphilippe who has been riding really well in this race. In the last few days, he has appeared to a bit fatigued but this stage suits him really well. In the Volta a Catalunya he finished on the podium several times and proved that he can mix it up in the sprints at the end of hard races. He excels on short, steep climbs and should be in the mix in the finale.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Cannondale are here to target stage wins and tomorrow could be a good option for Marco Marcato. The Italian has a fast sprint but has no chance against the pure sprinters in a flat sprint. As an Ardennes specialist, however, he is perfectly suited to this finale and he could ask his team to make things hard. He doesn’t seem to be in his best condition but in this kind of finale he can never be ruled out.

 

If Orica-GreenEDGE don’t support Gerrans, they will probably ride for either Impey or Keukeleire. Both are great options in this kind of finale as they are both better climbers than most and have a very fast sprint. Impey hasn’t been feeling well these first few days but today he returned to form by finishing fourth. Keukeleire has been riding really well, making it over the Col de Manse with the best riders in stage 4. None of them are pure sprinters but in this finale they have a chance.

 

Cofidis are still looking for a stage win and this one could be a good option for Julien Simon. The Frenchman recently won the GP Plumelec and is definitely in very good condition. He needs a hard finale to win the stage but being surrounded by a host of climbers he has the means to make things tough. He is certainly not the fastest rider in the race but at the end of a hard day, he has a pretty good shot at the victory.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Arnaud Demare

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Nikias Arndt

Outsiders: Yannick Martinez, Jurgen Roelandts, Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe

Jokers: Marco Marcato, Jens Keukeleire, Julien Simon, Daryl Impey