The GC riders have drawn the headlines during the last two stages but they will get a short breather in today's stage which promises to be the final opportunity for the sprinters in this year's Criterium du Dauphiné. The stage is, however, not your typical sprint stage as it has some really tough climbing at the midpoint of the course, thus opening a perfect opportunity for the best climbers among the sprinters to use their teams to send out the fastest finishers out the back. We should be in for a dramatic pursuit on the final flat run-in to the line when the sprinters try to get back in contention before the race reaches its conclusion in Grenoble. Starting at 12.45, you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
Friday's 6th stage is one of only two stages marked out by the sprinters. The 143km from La Lechere-les-Bains to Grenoble start out flat before a hilly zone containing the category 4 Cote d'Arvillard (2,2km, 5,3%), the category 1 Col du Barioz (7,1km, 7,3%), the category 2 Col des Ayes (3,8km, 8,1%) and the category 4 Col des Mouilles (2,0km, 6,1%) greets the riders. The climbing is rather tough but from the top of the final ascent, 45km of flat or descending roads remain. It is not a stage for pure sprinters but most of the fast men in this race also know how to climb, and there should be plenty of interest in keeping everything together for a sprint. The finish is rather non-technical and the final 4km almost all follow a straight line. There is, however, a sharp left-hand corner with 500m to go, and positioning going into that bend will be key to a successful result.
It is not completely impossible that a break will make it all the way to the finish and a lot of riders see this stage as their final opportunity to show the Tour selectors in their teams that they should be included in the line-ups for the world's biggest race. Hence, it would be no surprise to see a rather aggressive start with plenty of attacks. However, the first part of the stage is easy, making it a manageable task for the teams of the sprinters to control both the size and the composition of the break.
If a big group goes clear, it has a good chance of making it to the finish but if the group is a small one, they will probably not be allowed too much leeway before the sprinters' teams will start to chase. Some of them prefer to go easy on the climbs to protect their sprinters and that means that the break could not be allowed too much of a gap.
However, Omega Pharma-Quick Step is on a different mission. Gianni Meersman has finished on the podium three times but the stage win has so far escaped him. Today's stage is final opportunity and the previous days have all shown that he has the complete backing of his team. He is not the fastest finisher in the peloton and he will have to get rid of the likes of Elia Viviani and Nacer Bouhanni who both - on paper - can reach a higher speed than him. However, he is a formidable climber and the climbs are not even close to being too tough for him to survive.
Hence, we should see the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team hit the front hard on the 4 climbs in an attempt to get rid of the fastest sprinters. They could very well succeed in that mission but the tough part will be to keep the sprinters at bay during the final 45km. Riders like Michal Kwiatkowski, Sylvain Chavanel and especially Tony Martin should all survive the climbs and they all know how to go fast on a flat piece of road. However, the former has to hold something back for the weekend stages as he is currently 8th overall and thus we should be in for an interesting pursuit on the final run-in to the line.
Regardless of the outcome of this chase, Meersman faces a tough competitor in Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian struggled somewhat in the first two stages but his legs have now come around, delivering him to a win in stage 3 and a 6th place in the time trial. His Sky team will probably not do an awful lot of work to support him - they prefer to save energy for the weekend - but he will doubtlessly survive the climbs and he could very well take another win in a sprint.
Elia Viviani is one of the two fastest sprinters in the race and his stage win on Monday where he survived some tough climbing to get to the finish line in the main group, showed that he has come out of the Giro in good condition. He faded in the final part of the grand tour and while he bounced back in the early part of this race, it now appears that his many racing kilometres have finally caught up with him. His sprint in stage 3 was a far cry from his top level and he was clearly struggling early in yesterday's stage. If he has recovered, he could very well survive the climbing and if he does, he should be faster than both Boasson Hagen and Meersman, but it is evidently not a certainty that he will be in contention in the final sprint.
Nacer Bouhanni is probably the fastest rider in the race who had a tough start to the race, but now appears to be going better. He came tantalizingly close to getting over the climbs in stage 2 and he handled the challenges in stage 3. However, today's climbing is even harder and we doubt that he will crest the final summit in the main group. His team knows this and have stated that they will chase success from a breakaway with Pierrick Fedrigo and an in-form Arthur Vichot, thus making it unlikely that FDJ will contribute to the chase. If Bouhanni is there in the end, he will, however, be the fastest and he had doubtlessly won stage 3, had he not been boxed in by Geraint Thomas and Sylvain Chavanel.
Orica-GreenEdge has a pair of strong contenders. Michael Matthews has a dedicated team to support and today's stage is the final realistic stage win opportunity for the Australian squad. Hence, they will do what they can to bring it back for a sprint and then they will cross their fingers that Matthews survives the climbs. He is not as fast as Bouhanni and Viviani but his support could make up for that. If he is dropped along the way, Simon Gerrans could try his hand in the sprint. The Australian has bounced back from allergy troubles earlier in the race and he could be a surprise winner from a sprint if the stage ends up as a hard one.
Veteran Thor Hushovd was another one who found the going tough initially but whose legs have definitely. Everyone knows how well he climbs when he is at his best and so he could very well survive the climbs. We doubt that he has the speed to actually win but a podium spot is certainly not beyond his reach.
Finally, we want to mention Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg. The South African was one of the standout performers last season but has had a tough time during his first few months at the best level. He now seems to have adapted to the tougher racing and he should survive the climbs. Like Hushovd, he is not fast enough to win but he could make the podium as another emerging sprint talent in the Argos-Shimano team.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Elia Viviani
Outsiders: Nacer Bouhanni, Michael Matthews, Simon Gerrans
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