Alberto Contador turned the Criterium du Dauphiné upside down in today’s queen stage but with just an 8-second advantage over Chris Froome, he can still lose the race overall. The final stage offers a second consecutive summit finish and even though the final climb is not as tough as the last mountain in today’s stage, all is still to play for in one of the most prestigious stage races on the calendar.

 

The course

Nothing will be decided until the final day of the race as the last stage offers another big summit finish in another short stage that offers lots of climbing. The riders are back on French soil as they head over just 130.5km from the start in Megeve to a finish in the ski resort of Courchevel and this stage will determine a worthy winning of the race while also offering a perfect final test for the Tour contenders.

 

The stage can be divided into three parts: a hard beginning, a flat middle section and a tough end. After a short descent, the riders go up the category 2 Cote de Domancy (2.5km, 9.6%) as they do a small circuit before getting back past the start area. There will be no descent before the riders reach the top of the category 1 Col des Saisies (13.4km, 5.2%) at the 47km mark. This part offer very little room for recovery and will be the perfect scene for strong climbers that have lost a bit of time, to go on the attack.

 

A difficult, technical descent leads down to the valley where the riders will get a small respite as they roll along flat roads on the shores of the Arly, Doron and Isere rivers. This part offers the day's intermediate sprint and will be the warm-up for the final 24km.

 

They consist of two category 1 climbs that are separated by a straight road that is only slightly descending. First up is the Cote de Montagny (8km, 6.5%) which has steep fourth kilometre but is otherwise a pretty regular affair. After the descending middle section, the riders hit the bottom of the final climb to Courchevel (5.9km, 6.2%). It is a pretty regular affair, with the gradient staying between 6% and 8% and is not too difficult.

 

Courchevel last hosted the finish of a major bike race in the 2005 Tour de France when a young Alejandro Valverde famously beat Lance Armstrong in a four-rider sprint at the top. Back then, however, the riders started their climb much further down and went all the way up to 2000m of altitude, making it a much harder finish. That was also the case in 2000 when Marco Pantani took a stage win on a day when Armstrong put a lot of time into Jan Ullrich.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The sunny weather that dominated the first part of the race seems to have left France for now and tomorrow’s stage will be significantly colder than what the riders have encountered so far. It will be a very cloudy day and even though it is most likely to stay dry, the riders may be hit by a rain shower at some point during the short stage. The temperature at the finish in Courchevel will reach a maximum of just 10 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will mostly have a cross-tailwind after the opening circuit before turning into a cross-headwind in the valley after the first two climbs. It will become more of a headwind on the penultimate ascent and the descent while on the final climb, the riders will first have a tailwind, then a headwind and finally a tailwind for the final two kilometres.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage proved that Chris Froome is significantly hampered by his crash and even though he didn’t use his injuries as an excuse for his time loss, it was clear that he was not the same rider as he was in stage 2 where he was in a class of his own. That can’t take anything away from Alberto Contador’s performance but even the Spaniard himself had admitted that the Brit was the strongest rider in the race in the first stages and that it would take a major turnaround for things to change.

 

Froome’s injuries mean that we are shooting a bit in the dark when we have to assess the current climbing hierarchy in the race. Today Contador was clearly the strongest rider in the race but as Froome recovers, things could turn around. At 100% of their capabilities, Froome is the strongest rider in the race and it all depends on his recovery whether he will be able to put Froome under pressure.

 

However, Froome won’t go down without a fight and unless he is feeling really poorly, he will do his utmost to take the jersey back in tomorrow’s stage. To win the race overall, he will probably need the bonus seconds and this means that he needs to bring things back together for the favourites to decide the stage. It is a very short stage and the terrain is pretty hard which means that it will be very difficult to control the race. Today, however, Sky proved that they have an impressively strong team. When the main group was down to less than 50 riders, they still had 6 riders in there, proving all their critics wrong.

 

With the hard terrain and a very short distance to cover, we can expect a very fast start as a lot of riders will be going on the attack. After a short descent, it’s already uphill for around 10km and as the attacks are fired, we can expect the peloton to explode to pieces. A group of very strong climbers will probably emerge at the top of the Col des Saisies but Sky are unlikely to allow them too much leeway.

 

From there, they will probably keep things under control until they ramp up the speed on the final two climbs to set up Froome for a battle against Contador on the final climb. They can’t expect to get much help from Tinkoff-Saxo though. Contador may not have won a stage yet but the most important is obviously the overall victory. He will be pleased to see a breakaway take away the bonus seconds and so it won’t be up to his team to chase the breakaway down. At the same time, the team has performed pretty poorly so far and we don’t think they would be strong enough to keep this intense stage under control.

 

As we expect the favourites to decide the stage, it should again come down to a battle between Contador and Froome. Today Contador was the strongest rider and the only rider that can potentially challenge the Spaniard is Froome. It is virtually impossible to imagine that another GC rider will win the stage and even though the final climb is not very hard or very long, their superiority has been such that the winner should be one of those riders – provided that the early break is caught.

 

Today Froome was not able to match Contador but we put our money on the Brit to win the stage. Of course it takes time to recover from a crash but today he seemed to be pretty upbeat despite his time loss. There is a big chance that he will be slightly better in tomorrow’s stage and as the climb is easier, he should be able to keep up with Contador.

 

Furthermore, Contador is likely to ride defensively as he won’t risk losing the overall lead and he will probably only make an acceleration inside the final few hundred metres. On paper, Froome is the fastest sprinter of the two and if comes down to a sprint battle between the duo, Froome must be the favourite.

 

With Froome not being at 100%, we doubt that the final climb is hard enough for him to drop Contador and we wouldn’t be surprised if the duo arrive at the finish together. In that case, Contador will obviously try to win the stage but Froome will probably be the fastest. Hence, we expect Froome to win the stage and Contador to take the overall victory.

 

However, Contador definitely also has a chance to take the win. He may mostly be focused on the overall victory but there is no doubt that he will go for the stage win if he sees a chance to do so. He is likely to play it defensively but if he has any kind of punch left inside the final 500m, he will probably try to get rid of Froome. Today Froome was unable to match him and it is not unlikely that things will be the same in tomorrow’s stage. In that case Contador could win his first Dauphiné stage since he triumphed in Alpe d’Huez back in 2010.

 

Andrew Talansky has been climbing really well in this race and he usually gets better as the race goes on. Despite his strength, however, he is not at the same level as Contador and Froome. With Froome not at 100% and Contador playing it defensively, however, he could come away with a surprise win in tomorrow’s stage. The shorter climb will make it harder for them to drop the American and if Froome fails to shake Contador, Talansky could exploit the tactical battle to remain in contention. The American has a very decent sprint and if he is there at the end, he could beat the two grand tour winners in a final dash to the line.

 

It is hard to imagine that the winner won’t be one of those three riders if it comes down to the favouries and so out remaining winner picks will be possible escapees. Igor Anton came out of the Giro in really good condition and did really well in the first mountain stage. However, he had a bad day on stage 5 and dropped out of GC contention but today he bounced back with a solid showing,

 

He is now almost 20 minutes behind in the overall standings which means that he is no longer any GC threat. With a very hard start to the stage, he has a good chance of making it into the break. If that happens there is a big chance that he will be the strongest riders in the finale and this could allow him to take his first win for Movistar.

 

His teammate John Gadret is another very good winner candidate. The Frenchman is getting into form for the Tour de France but he has not been able to match the very best. This means that he is almost 7 minutes behind in the overall standings and so could get the freedom to go on the attack. The final climb is not really steep and doesn’t suit him too well but he actually has a decent punch on that kind of ascent. If he goes on the attack in the hilly first part, he is a very good winner candidate.

 

The same can be said for Simon Spilak. The Slovenian struggled massively in the heat in the first few stages but  on day 5 he proved that his condition is excellent. He will relish the colder conditions and his Katusha team have proved that they are not satisfied despite having already taken two stage wins. Today it was Yury Trofimov and Egor Silin who went on the attack but tomorrow could be a day for Spilak.

 

Finally we will select our jokers. Yesterday we made Kenny Elissonde out favourite to win from a breakaway but the Frenchman didn’t make it into the group that stayed away to the finish. Tomorrow he will definitely try again as he is the only chance for FDJ to save something from what has been a very disappointing race. The final climb doesn’t suit him very well as it is short and not very steep but with a tough start, he has a big chance of making it into the group. If he is there, he should be one of the strongest riders.

 

Ryder Hesjedal was on the attack in today’s stage and came close to victory. However, the Canadian is not one to give up and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t try again tomorrow. He usually gets stronger as a race goes on so he should not be too fatigued by today’s performance. He would have preferred a longer stage to wear down the opposition but if he is in the group, he definitely has a chance.

 

Lotto Belisol have mostly been focused on Jurgen Van Den Broeck’s GC campaign but by sending Tony Gallopin into today’s break, they proved that they are still chasing a stage win. Tomorrow it could be Bart De Clercq’s time to shine. The Belgian is a great climber and usually gets stronger towards the end of the stage races. He is building his condition for the Tour de France and even though he is not yet at 100%, he seems to be at a reasonable level. With a hard start to the stage, he has a good chance to make it into the break and then he could take his first big win since his breakthrough victory in the 2011 Giro d’Italia.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Andrew Talansky

Outsiders: Igor Anton, John Gadret, Simon Spilak

Jokers: Kenny Elissonde, Ryder Hesjedal, Bart De Clercq