The Tour Down Under and the Tour de San Luis offered the first chance to get in some early racing kilometres and now it is time for one of the most important blocks of racing in the first part of the season. For a few years, the Tours of Qatar and Oman have offered the perfect conditions for preparation and last year the series of races in the Middle East was extended with the addition of the inaugural Dubai Tour. In its first year, the race managed to attract one of the most star-studded line-ups for a February race and while the course may not offer the most exciting kind of racing, the race presents a perfect opportunity to build up condition for later objectives.

 

With the Tours of Qatar and Oman having proved that racing in the Middle East can both be very exciting and attract the world's greatest stars, it was always just a question of time before the wealthy Dubai City would venture into cycling. After a few years of planning, 2014 was the season where their assault on the cycling world kicked off in earnest, with the creation of a new continental team and a major UCI race.

 

The latter is the Dubai Tour whose inaugural edition was held last year. While it was Tour de France organizer ASO who took the brave decision to put up the first major race in the Middle East by hosting the Tour of Qatar in 2002 and later adding the Tour of Oman to their ever-growing portfolio of races, the local Dubai authorities have teamed up with Giro d'Italia organizers RCS Sport to put on their new race.

 

In recent years, the block of racing in the Middle East has developed into what is arguably the most important preparation phase for several of the world's biggest stars. Even though the Qatari race if mostly one for the sprinters and classics riders and the Omani event offers the climbers and stage race specialists a chance to shine, a lot of riders do both races to get in 12 days of quality racing in good weather conditions.

 

With the addition of the Dubai Tour, the block is now 4 days longer, meaning that few riders are expected to do all three races. Furthermore, the Tour of Qatar starts just the day after the conclusion of the race in Dubai, meaning that many riders will have to decide which one of the races to do. As the two different organizers also mean that the line-ups of teams are different, the block doesn’t have the same kind of homogeneity as it has had in the past.

 

The Tours of Qatar and Oman both have characteristic and exciting courses that have given them their own unique brands. The windy desert roads in Qatar are perfectly suited to high-speed training for the cobbled classics, with the many echelons sharpening the riders' ability to fight for position. As opposed to this, Oman has developed into what is undoubtedly the first big rendezvous for the grand tour riders.

 

Without the kind of unique terrain that characterizes its fellow Middle East races, the Dubai Tour probably has the least exciting course of the three races. With extensive TV coverage, we are guaranteed to see a lot of beautiful images from the city when the riders head around some of its famous landmarks but the course is mainly one for the sprinters, with the wind not expected to play the same role as it does in Qatar.

 

To add excitement to the race, the organizers decided to include an opening time trial for the inaugural edition and as expected it completely decided the final GC, with bonus seconds on the remaining stages failing to have much of an impact. This year the organizers have decided to change the script as the time trial has been replaced by another sprint stage. Instead, the slightly hillier third stage is now set to finish on a short 200m climb with sections of up to 17% which is set to decide the final winner of the race. This will tip the balance from the time triallists to the puncheurs. In that sense, the Middle East block is now complete, offering a race for both classics riders and sprinters, puncheurs, and climbers.

 

Despite the less interesting course, the race has attracted what is simply a fantastic line-up for a new early-season race. Tour de France champion Vincenzo Nibali, Tony Martin, grand tour Alejandro Valverde, sprinters Mark Cavendish and John Degenkolb, and classics specialists Fabian Cancellara and Philippe Gilbert are just some of the riders who will travel to the Middle East for the race. For riders like Nibali and Martin, the reasons for their attendance are less obvious given that the course doesn't do them many favours, but the good organization, the influence from RCS, and the wealthy organizers are likely to have played a crucial role in attracting the many big names. The line-up may not be as star-studded as it was for the inaugural edition but the UCI has recognized the race by awarding it a 2.HC status for just its second edition.

 

While most of the big names are unlikely to be focused on their results, the race will be a good opportunity to get in the racing kilometres and hone their condition with some high-speed racing. As the organizers get the chance to show off the beauty of their city and can capitalize on the presence of the sport's biggest stars to do so, the fit is a perfect one. Last year it was hard for the racing to live up to the hype but there is little doubt that the Dubai Tour has all the ingredients to become an integrated part of the early part of the season.

 

The inaugural edition was won by Taylor Phinney who took a dominant victory in the opening time trial and defended his led in the three road stages that were all won by Marcel Kittel. It was no surprise to see the big German win the two flat stages but he showed surprisingly good climbing skills to come away with the win on the hilly third day too. With only very few bonus seconds on offer, it was not enough for the German to win the race overall despite a solid opening time trial and the final podium completely reflected the TT result, with Stephen Cummings and Lasse Norman flanking Phinney. With the defending champion recovering from a broken leg, a new winner will have to be found while Cummings and Norman won’t be in attendance either, with neither MTN-Qhubeka nor Cannondale-Garmin having received an invitation to the race.

 

The course

With little natural elevation in the Dubai area, it was always difficult for organizers RCS Sport to put together an attractive route for the the Dubai Tour. With its wealthy backers, the race already managed to attract a star-studded line-up for its first year but even their money cannot change the geography of the United Arab Emirates. With no Omani climbs and no Qatari wind, the route may more be spectacular for its surroundings that take in many of Dubai's landmarks than for the sporting spectacle.

 

As said, the inaugural edition featured an opening time trial, two flat stages for the sprinters and a hillier stage that was still decided in a bunch sprint. The second edition will be more favourable to the fast men as the time trial has been replaced by another flat stage for the sprinters. However, they are still unlikely to battle it out for the overall victory. To challenge the riders a bit, they headed out in the desert on the third day in 2014 and this year they have made that stage decisive by having the riders finished at the top of a 200m climb with sections of up to 17%. That stage and the battle for bonus seconds is likely to decide the overall standings in a race that will be decided by seconds and where everything could still be up for grabs on the final flat stage in Dubai.

 

 

Stage 1

With the decision to skip the opening time trial, the organizers had to design a completely new route for the opening day. Unsurprisingly, the stage will be held entirely within the borders of Dubai city and will take in many of the same roads that will be used for Saturday’s final stage. As Dubai is completely flat, the sprinters are expected to come to the fire to vie for the first leader’s jersey in the race.

 

The stage will be known as the Union Flag Stage and will bring the riders over 145km. Like all other stages, it will start from the Dubai International Marine Club. The stage is completely flat and runs almost entirely along the city centre. The route initially stretches to the South, towards Jebel Ali, and then turns back, leading through the Expo 2020 area (where the first Intermediate Sprint is set at the 51.9km mark) and the Discovery Gardens, in a whirlwind of straightaways, roundabouts and more or less sharp speed bumps. After running past Jumeirah Islands, the stage course hits Jumeirah Road, seaside, for the final 8.2-km circuit, to be covered 4 times. The second Intermediate Sprint is set on the finish line, at the beginning of the third lap after 128.6km of racing.

 

The 8.2-km circuit is composed of a 4.1-km northbound stretch and a 4.1-km southbound stretch along the two Jumeirah Road lanes, connected by two U-turns. The home stretch is 3.5 km long on 7 m-wide, asphalted roadway, with riders finishing by going around the buoy and under the Union Flag. The finish line is located on the big coastal road after a long finishing straight, meaning that there will be very few technical challenges.

 

With the stage being very short and finishing with laps of a flat, non-technical circuit, it looks more like a traditional final stage than an opener of a stage race. Hence, it is very hard to imagine that it won’t be decided in a bunch sprint and there should be plenty of interest from teams like Etixx-QuickStep and Giant-Alpecin to bring back the early break and set up their fast finishers. The only potential danger is the wind but as the race mostly takes place within the protected boundaries of a major city, it is unlikely to be strong enough to split things.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that lost out in the opening stage, will get an immediate chance to take revenge as the second day is another one for the fast men. Again most of the stage will be held in the city but will pass through its outskirts as it passes some of the major sports facilities, meaning that there are actually a few elevation gains in this stage. It will be very similar to the second stage of last year’s race and will have an identical, spectacular finish but this year a longer opening part will make increase the distance to 185km, something that had been requested by the riders.

 

Known as the Palm Stage, it will of course start at the Dubai International Marine Club and is divided into two parts: the first one outside the metropolis (and partly across the desert, too), and the second one in the heart of Dubai Marina, finishing in Palm Jumeirah. The first part is raced on wide (up to 6 lanes), well-surfaced boulevards. The route then takes a brief diversion through Silicon Oasis, with a close succession of large, wide roundabouts, and the first Intermediate Sprint at the 37.5km mark. The second Intermediate Sprint is located near the Camel Track, before reaching the Al-Qudra Cycletrack after 95.5km of racing

 

In the second part, the stage course enters the city centre near Dubai Motor City; several sectors are paved with stone slabs or setts, sometimes alternating between the two. Many turns, counter-turns and short bottlenecks lead all the way up to the spectacular Palm Jumeirah island, where the stage course then becomes mainly straight.

 

The stage course enters the final part of the “Palm” via an underwater tunnel. Many clearly marked rumble strips run across the carriageway along the descent and the climb. There is a U-turn 3,200 metres before the finish line. The final 3 kilometres are virtually straight (although on constantly slightly-bending road). Some roundabouts along the way. The home stretch is 800 m-long (still bending slightly), on 7 m-wide, asphalted roadway.

 

While the first stage had all the characteristics of a traditional sprint stage, this will be a much more nervous. First the riders will head into the desert where the potentially windy conditions could do some damage. Furthermore, the final kilometres are extremely exposed to the wind and last year it made for some extremely nervous racing, with the sprint trains fighting hard to get to the front before they hit the decisive tunnel in the finale. It is hard to imagine that the stage won’t be decided in a bunch sprint but if it’s a windy day, splits could occur in the finale which may be crucial in a stage that is set to be decided by seconds.

 

Last year Giant-Shimano won the battle of the lead-out trains and delivered Marcel Kittel to the win, with the German holding off Peter Sagan and Taylor Phinney. As the German is absent from this year’s race, the door is open to make up for last year’s disappointing 30th place.

 

 

 

 

Stage 3:

During their 4-day stage in Dubai, the riders will only get one chance to leave the city for more than just a brief stint. Like last year, the third stage will bring them into the desert and over some of the small climbs in the area before they again will finish in Hatta. Fittingly, the stage is known as the desert stage and with a longer distance and a changed finale, it is set to be a harder and more decisive affair than it was 12 months ago.

 

Starting again from the Dubai International Marine Club, racers will head towards the desert and the Hatta enclave in the mountains on the border with Oman. This is the longest stage (205 km), marked by lengthy desert sectors rolling across the Hajar Mountains and three neighbouring Emirates: Sharjah, Ras-al-Khaimah and Fujairah. The first Intermediate Sprint is located just outside the urban centre, in Labab at the 56.2km mark.

 

Four climbs precede the exclave of Hatta. The first one is long and gradual, with a 3-4% slope, on a wide and well-surfaced road. The second Intermediate Sprint is set in Fayyad at the 148.5km mark, before the two sharp climbs (with a maximum gradient of 10-11%) leading to the Kalba Road tunnel. The first of those is 5.75km long and has a steep final part, with the final 2.75km averaging 6.1% and including a 10% section. The second is 2.65km long and has an average gradient of 8.9%, with a maximum of 11% near the top.

 

The fourth climb is 1.5 km-long, with a gradient of about 8%, peaking 11% in the final stretch, and with a demanding descent straight afterwards. The carriageway is quite wide and the road surface is excellent. The summit comes 11km from the finish and after the descent, there is another small 500m climb with a 9.1% average gradient. Then it’s slightly downhill before the riders hit flat roads with 7.5km to go.

 

From 20 to 5km, the riders have to be aware of rough concrete-paved fords called “wadis”. Between the city of Dubai and the mountains, the roads are wide and have an excellent surface, but there could be possible sand accumulation on the carriageway. The final 3km lead from the centre of Hatta to the finish line, located at the Hatta Dam, with gradients peaking as high as 17%.

 

The final 3 km are a continuous ascent, with some sharp bends leading to the final climb towards the Dam: a short, sharp rise of about 200 m, with gradients ranging from 12% to 17%. The first 100m have a gradient of around 8% but the final 100m are much steeper with gradients above 14%. The home stretch is 150 m-long, on 5 m-wide, asphalted roadway. The roads are mostly straight but there is a sharp turn at the bottom of the climb and then the road bends slightly to the left. At the end of the stage, riders will have faced a total elevation of 1200m.  

 

The amount of climbing is not overwhelming and even though it won’t be a complete peloton that arrives at the bottom of the final short ramp, most should be able to handle the challenges. However, the wind could be very dangerous and as the riders will travel in a number of different directions, there may be a chance to split things on the exposed desert roads. The finale suits the puncheurs perfectly and they will have to stay attentive to avoid getting caught up. The most likely outcome is that it will all come down to a sprint up the short climb to the finish. A 200m climb is very explosive, meaning that positioning will be crucial. Some of the very strong sprinters may be able to achieve a result in this stage but it should be more suited to explosive Ardennes riders like Alejandro Valverde and Philippe Gilbert who know that they have a formidable opportunity to win the race overall by making a good performance in this stage.

 

Last year’s stage was won by Marcel Kittel who impressed most of his rivals by hanging onto the field over the climbs before he beat Juan Jose Lobato and Peter Sagan in the sprint. As the German is not at the start in 2015, he won’t repeat the performance but the new finale would in any case have made it impossible for the German to make it two in a row in the queen stage.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The sprinters will have been out of the spotlight for 24 hours but they should again get their chance to go for glory on the final stage which is known as the Burj stage. The riders will be back in the city for a traditional final stage that is very similar to the one that ended last year’s race. However, the distance has again been slightly increased as the riders will do 128km instead of last year’s 123km.

 

Last year the riders zigzagged their way through the old part of the city on a sinuous system of small circuits before the finished in front of Burj Khalifa, the tallest skyscraper in the World at 830 metres. This year, however, the criterium-like format has been abandoned as there is no circuit and instead the riders will do a big loop in the city before they head back to the same spectacular finish.

 

This stage rolls across Dubai Old and New Town. The course first heads from the start at the Dubai International Marine Club towards the huge Meydan Racecourse (Intermediate Sprint at the 12.8km mark), it then crosses Mushrif Park and hits the Al Mamzar beach; after rolling across Deira, the Al Maktoum Bridge and throughout the Old Town, the route brushes past Port Rashid and enters the coastal Jumeirah Road. The second Intermediate Sprint is set in front of the majestic Union Flag at the 93.6km mark. After taking a U-turn at Burj-al-Arab to cruise back up along Jumeirah Road, the stage course then hits the Burj Khalifa, where the finish line is set.

 

Five and a half kilometres before the finish, the stage course diverts from Jumeirah Road and heads towards the final bend, with 1,100 metres to the finish. To get there, the riders will go through three turns in quick succession before they hit a straight road that leads to the final bend. Here, the course then hits the Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Boulevard, where the finish line is set after 1,000 m on a slightly bending, 7.5 m-wide, asphalted roadway.

 

There will be virtually no elevation gains in this flat stage and as it takes place within the city, it is unlikely that the wind will make a difference. However, the GC is likely to be very close and with bonus seconds on offer in the intermediate sprint, we could be in for a pretty interesting battle for the overall win. In the end, however, it will be very hard to avoid a big bunch sprint in front of Burj Khalifa.

  

 

 

 

The weather

One of the main reasons for doing the Dubai Tour is the good weather that the riders expect to find in the Middle East. They are unlikely to be disappointed as the forecast currently shows that they will find near-perfect conditions for bike racing.

 

Only Friday may be a bit cloudy but otherwise the riders can expect bright sunshine all days. For the first two days, the temperature will reach a maximum of just above the 25-degree mark while the maximum for the final two days is expected to be 24 degrees.

 

The real danger is of course the wind which could wreak havoc in the finale of stage 2 and on the hilly desert stage on Friday. However, the weather forecasts only predict a light wind all days which will mainly come from a southwesterly and westerly direction. This means that there should be some crosswind from the sea when the riders travel along the coast in the finales of stages 1 and 2. On the desert stage, the riders will mainly have a tailwind but there should be a crosswind and a cross-headwind for the hilly finale. 

 

The favourites

With a mostly flat route and no chance for the climbers to make a difference, the inuagural Dubai Tour was decided by the opening time trial. With no time trial in this year’s race, the dynamics will change significantly and while Tony Martin went into last year’s race as the pre-race favourite, the German has virtually no chance of emerging triumphant on the new course.

 

Instead, the race will be decided by three elements. First of all the uphill finish in stage 3 will have a massive impact as it will be the best chance to create a selection. The finale will be too tough for the sprinters and instead, the puncheurs should come to the fore. A 200m climb, however, will never create big time differences and several riders will probably still be close to the lead at the end of stage 3.

 

While the uphill sprint in stage 3 will be the most important factor in deciding the race, two other factors will also come into play. First of all, the bonus seconds will have an impact and we could see some of the puncheurs go for the intermediate sprints along the way. Furthermore, strong sprinters like John Degenkolb should not be too far off the mark in stage 3 and if they can pick up bonifications in the flat stages, they may still have a chance to win the race overall. Finally, the wind can wreak havoc on the peloton and so any contender either needs a bit of help from the weather gods or a strong team that can help him making the selection if it’s windy.

 

Last year the race had very unusual rules for bonus seconds, with only 3, 2 and 1 seconds awarded for the three best riders in each stage and 1 second for the first rider across the line at the intermediate sprints. This year the organizers have introduced the well-known rules of handing out 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders at the finish and 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the best at the intermediate sprints. This means that the bonus seconds should become more of a factor and with a late intermediate sprint in stage 1 and two intermediate sprints early and late in the final stage, we could see the bonifications along the route also play a role.

 

While the condition of the rides is always uncertain at this point of the year, one rider is always close to his best. Riders constantly express how Alejandro Valverde manages to turn up at the first training ride after a long break and still be riding away from his training companions. Unsurprisingly, the Spaniard has again hit the ground running and delivered one of the most impressive solo performances of his long and glorious career when he won the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana two days ago. One day earlier he was clearly the strongest at the Trofeo Andratx where he timed his final acceleration badly and failed to catch Steve Cummings who had attacked a little earlier.

 

Those performances make it clear that Valverde is undoubtedly the strongest rider in the race and unlike last year, the course suits him pretty well. For him, it will be all about getting safely through the three flat stages and avoid any time losses in the crosswinds. With Adriano Malori and Jonathan Castroviejo at his side, he has plenty of firepower for the flat stages and he is unlikely to get caught. Then it all comes down to stage 3 in which he is the overwhelming favourite to win. Even though the final climb is very short and not suits him perfectly, he is very hard to beat in this kind of uphill sprint and at this time of the year, it is only harder.

 

The main issue will be to get rid of the sprinters who may pick up so many bonus seconds in the flat stages that they can defend themselves in the uphill finale. However, Movistar have a formidable line-up of in-form climbers, with Eros Capecchi, Jesus Herrada and Giovanni Visconti all riding really well at the moment, and if they apply the pressure on the hardest climb 45km from the finish in stage 3, it will be hard for the sprinters to remain in contact.

 

However, there is one big question mark for Valverde. Two days ago he made it clear that he was in Dubai mainly to build condition and support Juan Jose Lobato in the sprints. This may be an opportunity for him to pay back his teammates for their work and there are no guarantees that he will take on a leadership role. On the other hand, he is of a very competitive nature and rarely skips a chance to win. With a race perfectly suited to his characteristics, it will be hard to avoid the temptation and this makes him our big favourite.

 

If Movistar decide to ride for Lobato, they have another very good winner candidate. The Spaniard is in excellent condition at the moment as he proved when he took a dominant win in the Tour Down Under stage to Stirling. In fact, he has made uphill sprints his specialty and so he may shine in stage 3.

 

Last year Lobato won a very hard sprint at the Vuelta a Burgos but the one in Hatta may be a bit too steep for him. We doubt that he will be able to win this kind of stage but he should be able to limit his losses. Unlike many of the puncheurs, he has a chance to score bonus seconds in the flat sprints and if he is sprinting at his Down Under level he should be able to finish in the top 3 on a number of occasions.

 

As we don’t think he will be in the mix for the win on stage 3, he needs to pick up bonus seconds in the flat stages. He definitely has the speed and form to do so but he needs to improve his positioning. In Australia, he always had to start his sprints from far back and in this field the lead-out trains are a long stronger. This makes it hard for him to come back from a poor position but if he can overcome that weakness, he will be one of the favourites.

 

In addition to Valverde, the other rider who is perfectly suited to this finale is Philippe Gilbert. Unlike Valverde, however, he hasn’t done any racing yet and he is rarely in very good condition at this time of the year. In fact, he has rarely won any races in February and this raises several questions about his performance in Dubai.

 

There is a chance that Gilbert won’t even try his hand in stage 3 but the finale suits him down to the ground. Towards the end of the 2014 season he showed signs of a return to his highest level and if he can confirm those trends, he will have a great 2015 season. On paper, the very steep gradients may be a bit too hard to suit him perfectly but on such a short climb, it will mainly be about power in an uphill sprint. Gilbert is one of the best in that business and if he is in a decent condition he will have a chance.

 

It almost feels strange to mention Filippo Pozzato as a favourite for a bike race as he has been far from his best level for most of the time since he joined Lampre-Merida. In the second half of the 2014 season, however, he rode very well and he definitely deserved a spot on the Italian team for Worlds. This year he seems to continue that trend as he rode very strongly in the Tour de San Luis where he did some surprisingly good performances in the hard mountain stages.

 

This indicates that he is already in very good condition and this race suits him very well. On paper, the climb in stage 3 may be a bit too steep to suit him perfectly but due to its short length, he should have a solid chance. Furthermore, it is mostly about form at this time of the year and Pozzato is certainly an in-form rider at the moment. Davide Cimolai may be Lampre-Merida’s sprinter for the flat stages but if he is contention for the win, Pozzato may give it a go too and if he can position himself well, he may even pick up a few bonus seconds.

 

Like Lobato, John Degenkolb excels in uphill sprints and this makes him a danger man for this race. However, the final climb in stage 3 should be too steep for him and he will have very little chance to win the stage. On the other hand, he may be able to limit his losses sufficiently and this could give him a chance to win the race by virtue of bonus seconds picked up in the flat stages. On paper, he is the second fastest rider in this race and with a solid team at his side, he should be able to shave several seconds off his overall time in the sprints. The main question is his form as he hasn’t done any racing yet. However, he has always started his seasons strongly and nothing suggests that it will be any different. He may have to share sprinting duties with Luka Mezgec but if he is on form, he will usually be the protected sprinter.

 

Mark Cavendish should be the fastest sprinter in the race and he will even be supported by the best lead-out train in the race. That makes him the obvious favourite for the flat stages and he can potentially pick up 30 bonus seconds. If that happens, he can allow himself to lose 20 seconds in the uphill finish and on a short 200m climb it is certainly not impossible for the Manxman to limit his losses sufficiently. He may have been beaten twice in San Luis but he was actually climbing really well and seems to be in really good condition. His main challenge will be to survive the harder climbs earlier in stage 3 but if he manages to do so and can capitalize fully on the sprints, he may win the race overall.

 

Among the sprinters, Ben Swift is probably the best climber and he is in his usual excellent condition at the start of the year. In the uphill finish in Trofeo Andratx, he finished just outside the top 20 and this indicates that he is climbing really well at the moment. The final climb may be a bit too steep for him to be in contention for the win but he should be able to finish very close to the best. If he can pick up a few bonus seconds in the flat stages, he will be a contender. However, he is not suited to those very fast sprints and the team may decide to back Elia Viviani instead. It will be hard for Swift to get into the top 3 in those stages but with an improved lead-out train, he definitely has a chance.

 

Viviani may also be in contention for the win as the Italian is usually a pretty strong climber. He is definitely not at Swift’s level but he is faster in the flat sprints. The Sky lead-out train was really strong in Mallorca and here they should be even stronger. If they can dominate the sprints like they did in Mallorca, Viviani has the speed to win a few stages and if he can limit his losses in stage 3, it may be enough to win the race overall.

 

If stage 3 is too hard for Swift and Viviani, Sky may play the Geraint Thomas card. The Welshman was not in very good condition in Australia but he will only have become stronger since then. He is one of the riders with previous racing in his legs and this is very important at this point of the year. He is fast in an uphill sprint and even though there are faster riders than him, he definitely has a chance in stage 3.

 

Grega Bole is back at the professional level and he proved his versatile skills when he finished in the top 10 at the hard Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana. He is very strong in an uphill sprint and he definitely has a chance to win stage 3. To win the race overall, he will have to do so as he won’t be in contention in the flat sprints where CCC are likely to ride for Grzegorz Stepniak but as he is one of the in-form riders capable of winning in Hatta, he is one of the overall favourites.

 

Giovanni Visconti showed excellent condition in Mallorca and stage 3 suits him down to the ground. He will probably have to work for Lobato and Valverde but he may be given his own chance. If the finale proves to be too hard for Lobato and Valverde only uses this race to build condition, Visconti will be the protected rider in stage 3 and he definitely has the speed to win that kind of uphill sprint.

 

Katusha are here with Joaquim Rodriguez but the Spaniard is never good in his first race. Instead, they will be supporting Sergei Chernetskii who is very good in this kind of uphill sprint. Last year he finished his first grand tour at the Vuelta and that clearly made him a lot stronger as he rode really well in Beijing. His form is unknown but as he has been given the captaincy role, he won’t be too bad.

 

Astana are here with Vincenzo Nibali but this kind of explosive finish doesn’t suit the Italian. Instead, the Kazakh team are likely to ride for Lars Boom and Alexey Lutsenko. Especially Boom will be a good winner candidate as he is very fast in an uphill sprint. He showed good condition at the Tour Down Under and is reportedly 5kg lighter than he was at this time last year. The climb may be a bit too steep to suit him perfectly but if can climb at the level he did in last year’s Eneco Tour, he will be a contender.

 

***** Alejandro Valverde

**** Juan Jose Lobato, Philippe Gilbert

*** Filippo Pozzato, John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish

** Ben Swift, Grega Bole, Geraint Thomas, Giovanni Visconti, Elia Viviani, Sergei Chernetskii, Lars Boom

* Alexey Lutsenko, Angel Vicioso, Enrico Battaglin, Maciej Paterski, Nicola Ruffoni, Daniel Oss, Vincenzo Nibali, Michael Valgren, Jan Bakelants, Matteo Montaguti, Jan Polanc, Marco Canola, Luka Mezgec, Tony Martin