Organizers RCS Sport could not have wished a better spectacle for the first day of their race's history as the inaugural Dubai Tour will kick off with the first big time trial showdown between Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Taylor Phinney, and Adriano Malori. The 9.9km race against the clock suits the true specialists and will not only be a battle for the day's honours as it is also likely to have a crucial influence on the final GC.
The course
The race will kick off with its most important stage as the 9.9km time trial will take place on the opening day. The stage will be known as the Downtown Stage and is held in the centre of Dubai near the Burj Khalifa skyscraper.
The stage may not be very long but it won't be technical either, consisting mostly of long, straight roads that are perfect for the biggest specialists. Shortly after the start, the riders will negotiate two 90-degree right-hand corners that lead them onto a long straight road. Another two 90-degree turns will be the only obstacles before the riders get to the turning point at the 4.8km mark where they will do a U-turn.
From there, they head all the way back along the same straight roads, passing through the two 90-degree turns. The only change comes at the finish as the riders will approach the start/finish area in a slightly different and more complicated way. The riders will head through two 90-degree turns inside the final kilometre before doing another U-turn that leads them onto the short finishing straight.
However, those final technical complications do very little to change the fact that this will be a course that suits the really powerful riders like Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Taylor Phinney. All will benefit from the long straight sections but while Martin would certainly have preferred a longer distance, Cancellara would not have been bothered by a few more corners. Despite their different preferences, we are guaranteed to witness the first big time trial spectacle of the year between some of the giants in the discipline.
The weather
One of the main reasons for doing the Dubai Tour is the good weather that the riders expect to find in the Middle East. They are unlikely to be disappointed as the forecast currently shows that they will find near-perfect conditions for bike racing.
There could be a small shower at the start of Wednesday's time trial but by the time, the big-name riders roll down the ramp, the conditions and roads should be dry. The sun will be shining from a blue sky and the temperature will be a pleasant 22 degrees. There will be a rather strong win from a northwestern direction but riding in the city alongside big skyscrapers, it should have no big impact.
The favourites
Short time trials are usually dominated by sprinters and TT specialists, depending on the exact nature of the course. With this one being slightly longer than a prologue and rather non-technical, it will be hard for the sprinters to keep up with the true specialists who will find the long straights to their liking. This one should be one for the true specialists and the line-up contains several riders who are clearly gunning for the win in the first big time trial battle of the year.
With the race being one for specialists, it is hard to look beyond the world champion in the discipline when it comes to selecting a favourite. Tony Martin will start his 2014 season in Dubai and there is no doubt that he will be the man to beat. At last year's world championships, he proved that he is currently in a class of his own in the time trials, beating Bradley Wiggins and Fabian Cancellara with a big margin, and if he is at his best, he will be very hard to beat.
At this time of the year, it is always hard to know what kind of form the riders have but there is no reason to believe that Martin is not well-prepared. With his team often having to slow him down, the German will doubtlessly have done the hard work during the winter and he usually starts his seasons very strongly. Last year he crushed the opposition in the Tour of Algarve time trial to win the race overall, again proving that he knows how to come out of the off-season with a pretty good condition. His posts on his personal website indicate that he already has his eyes firmly focused on the time trial which seems to be a clear early objective for him.
Martin would undoubtedly have preferred a longer time trial as he usually requires a bit of time to get his motor going. On the other hand, he will benefit from the non-technical nature of the route and he will relish the long straights where he can push a big gear. Martin will be going all out to win the GC as well and this will make him highly motivated for the opening day.
Fabian Cancellara is Martin's archrival in the time trials and he will again be his most dangerous rival. The Swiss is usually a better prologue rider than Martin and this time trial is very short. However, the non-technical nature will favour Martin over Cancellara who mostly excels on more difficult courses.
While Martin will be keen to win the race, Cancellara's focus is different. He is in Dubai to prepare for the classics and is usually not racing too hard for the win in his February races. At the same time, he has been hampered by illness and a training crash in his build-up, telling Cyclingnews that he has no ambitions in the race At the same time, he usually doesn't start his seasons too strongly and it will be a surprise for to see him end up near the front. However, Cancellara is probably the only rider who has the class to beat Martin.
If Cancellara's form is uncertain, the same cannot be said about Taylor Phinney. The BMC rider has stated that he has had his best winter ever and he showed some really good form in the Tour de San Luis. He had targeted a win in the time trial in Argentina but a wrong choice of equipment saw him lose out to Adriano Malori by just 3 seconds.
Phinney has done nothing to hide that the Dubai Tour is his next big objective and he has his eyes on a short at the overall win. That will require him to produce a solid ride in the time trial and he will be going full gas. His big motor makes him perfectly suited to the course and Martin will have to keep a close eye on his American rival.
Adriano Malori has long shown that he is a fantastic time trialist and on short flat courses, he was not too far behind Tony Martin in the 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Romandie. This Dubai time trial is not too different from those stages and he will not be far off the mark. He showed good condition in San Luis when he beat Phinney in the time trial even if the American would probably have won had he chosen the right equipment. That doesn't take anything away from Malori's win though, and he will be eager to show that he has come even closer to Martin in his preferred discipline.
Movistar lines up a formidable roster of time trialists. In addition to Malori, they can count on Spanish champion Jonathan Castroviejo. It will be his first race of the season and so his form level is a big unknown but there is little doubt that he will give the time trial a short. His best may not be quite up to the level of Martin, Cancellara, Phinney and Malori but if things go perfectly, a podium spot is certainly within reach.
The same can be said for the final card on the Movistar hand, Alex Dowsett. The Brit famously beat Bradley Wiggins in the long time trial in last year's Giro but has had difficulty reproducing that kind of form since that fantastic ride. Nonetheless, no one doubts that he is a fantastic time trialist and he is guaranteed to give it a shot on the opening day. Being happy to play the domestique role, his personal targets are the races against the clock and he will be eager to start his campaign to get selected for the Movistar Tour de France squad. A podium spot in Dubai would be a good way to do so.
Finally, we will select our joker. Bob Jungels has long been regarded as one of the biggest talents in cycling and his first year in the pro ranks did nothing to dismiss the idea. Only very rarely did he finish outside the top 10 in time trials and he should only have improved compared to 2013. Until now, he has had his best results on short courses and this one should suit him well. He would have preferred a hillier course and he won't be able to beat Martin. Nonetheless, he could produce a surprise as he embarks on his second year at the elite level.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tony Martin
Other winner candidates: Taylor Phinney, Fabian Cancellara
Outsiders: Adriano Malori, Jonathan Castroviejo, Alex Dowsett
Joker: Bob Jungels
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