For the second year in a row, the Dubai Tour has attracted a formidable line-up and even though most of the riders are mainly in the city to get some quality training, the fast men will be eager to get a win in what should be a festival for the sprinters. They will get their first chance on the opening day, with the first day ending with four laps of a circuit along the seafront that will be the perfect scene for a big bunch kick.

 

The course

With the decision to skip the opening time trial, the organizers had to design a completely new route for the opening day. Unsurprisingly, the stage will be held entirely within the borders of Dubai city and will take in many of the same roads that will be used for Saturday’s final stage. As Dubai is completely flat, the sprinters are expected to come to the fire to vie for the first leader’s jersey in the race.

 

The stage will be known as the Union Flag Stage and will bring the riders over 145km. Like all other stages, it will start from the Dubai International Marine Club. The stage is completely flat and runs almost entirely along the city centre. The route initially stretches to the South, towards Jebel Ali, and then turns back, leading through the Expo 2020 area (where the first Intermediate Sprint is set at the 51.9km mark) and the Discovery Gardens, in a whirlwind of straightaways, roundabouts and more or less sharp speed bumps. After running past Jumeirah Islands, the stage course hits Jumeirah Road, seaside, for the final 8.2-km circuit, to be covered 4 times. The second Intermediate Sprint is set on the finish line, at the beginning of the third lap after 128.6km of racing.

 

The 8.2-km circuit is composed of a 4.1-km northbound stretch and a 4.1-km southbound stretch along the two Jumeirah Road lanes, connected by two U-turns. The home stretch is 3.5 km long on 7 m-wide, asphalted roadway, with riders finishing by going around the buoy and under the Union Flag. The finish line is located on the big coastal road after a long finishing straight, meaning that there will be very few technical challenges.

 

 

 

 

The weather

One of the key reasons for doing the Dubai Tour is the good weather that usually gives the riders perfect conditions at this time of the year. They won’t be disappointed on the first day which should be perfect for bike racing. Lots of sunshine is expected and even though a few clouds may appear towards the end of the stage, a maximum temperature of 25 degrees will be pleasant for the riders who raced and trainedin Europe last week.

 

The big obstacle in the Dubai Tour is the wind which can potentially wreak havoc on the peloton. However, there will only be a moderate wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a headwind in the first part of the stage before they turn into a cross-tailwind as they head back towards the city centre along the coastal road. On the finishing circuit, there will be a cross-headwind in the first part before the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

Last year the Dubai Tour turned into a festival for the sprinters, with two of the three road stages being very controlled affairs. Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Giant-Shimano had both lined up dedicated sprint teams and those two teams combined forces to make sure that the sprinters had their say. This year three of the four stages are again completely flat and this means that most of the teams have plenty of fast men in their rosters, meaning that it will be very hard to prevent a bunch sprint in stages 1, 2 and 4.

 

The only thing that can really change that predicted outcome is the crosswind danger. However, nothing suggests that it will be very windy during the four days of racing. Furthermore, the three sprint stages will almost all take place entirely within the city boundaries, meaning that the wind is unlikely to be strong enough to split things.

 

Stage 1 is maybe even the one that is most suited to the sprinters. It is very short, it doesn’t even touch the desert and it finishes with four laps of a flat, fast circuit that is perfectly suited to an organized chase. In that sense, it is more of a criterium than a real road race. For most of the stage, the riders will be travelling along the coastal road and as the wind will be coming from the sea, they will not be overly protected. This should create some nervous racing but it doesn’t seem to be strong enough to split the field.

 

This means that we should be in for a pretty controlled sprint stage. Everybody knows that this won’t be the day to win the race and so we will probably see the race get off to a slow start. One of the early breaks is likely to stick and it is likely to be made up of riders from some of the smaller teams, with SkyDive Dubai, the UAE national team, Novo Nordisk, Bardiani, UnitedHealthCare and CCC likely to be in the mix. On the first stage of a stage race, it is not always obvious who’s going to control the race but with Etixx-QuickStep and Giant-Alpecin both focusing on their sprinters and Sky eager to prove themselves as the new sprint team, there should be plenty of firepower in the chase. They won’t let the situation get out of control and will make sure that it comes back together for a bunch sprint.

 

The final intermediate sprint comes with just 16.2km to go and while the sprinters will probably keep their powder dry for the sprint, there is a chance that some of the overall contenders may try to pick up some bonus seconds. This could give the first indication of who’s here to win the race and who’s mainly here to train.

 

With the wind coming from the sea, the racing could be very nervous on the final circuit and we should see a huge fight for position. However, the road is pretty wide and the circuit completely non-technical so the organizers have done their best to avoid a crash fest this early in the season.

 

With a bunch sprint on the cards, it is hard to look beyond Mark Cavendish as the big favourite. The Brit may not have had the best start to the year as he was twice beaten by Fernando Gaviria in the Tour de San Luis and he only narrowly held off the Colombian in the final stage. Furthermore, he didn’t really excel in 2014 when he had trouble beating John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani in California and Turkey respectively, and after he missed most of the second half of the year, he failed to win a stage in the Tour of Britain before he ended his season.

 

In this race, however, he is supported by the strongest lead-out train. The combination Sabatini-Renshaw-Cavendish may not have been tested in race conditions but it is a very powerful formation. Furthermore, they can count on Tony Martin to string things fast in the finale and make sure that Cavendish is always in one of the best positions.

 

This kind of long tailwind sprint doesn’t suit Cavendish perfectly and the days when he can turn things around by being much faster than his rivals are probably gone. The likes of Degenkolb and Vivani may be close to having the same top speed but if Cavendish can start his sprint from the perfect position, he will be very hard to beat.

 

On paper, John Degenkolb will be his biggest rival. In 2013, the big German sprinted terribly for most of the year until he finally found his legs in the autumn. He carried that momentum into 2014 and he ended the year with several impressive wins in the Vuelta and some one-day races.

 

Unlike Cavendish, he hasn’t done any racing yet and this makes his condition a bit uncertain. However, he has always started his seasons very strongly and nothing suggests that he won’t be fast already from the beginning. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have much of his usual lead-out train at his disposal and this could make things harder for him. He will probably have to start his season from a little bit behind but on paper this kind of power sprint suits him really well. If he can start his sprint from a reasonable position, he proved in California that he has the speed to beat Cavendish.

 

In 2015 Team Sky have decided to focus more on sprints and they got their new lead-out train off to a great start in Mallorca. In the Trofeo Santanyi they dominated the finale before delivering Elia Viviani perfectly on the front. Unfortunately, Matteo Pelucchi was faster but no one could point a finger at the flawless lead-out. Things didn’t go equally well in the Trofeo Palma but the team still managed to play a prominent role before Ben Swift sprinted to third.

 

In this race they still have the core of Viviani, Swift, Bernhard Eisel and Andrew Fenn at their disposal but with the addition of Geraint Thomas and Salvatore Puccio, they will be even stronger. On paper, they may have the firepower to go up against Etixx-QuickStep and then they could come away with the win.

 

The main issue is who’s going to be the protected sprinter. For this kind of fast, non-technical finale, the logical choice would be Viviani. The Italian is usually in good condition at this time of the year due to his track commitments and in Turkey he proved that he has the pure speed to beat Cavendish. He has often suffered from poor position but with a stronger lead-out, he has a formidable chance to overcome that weakness.

 

The rider who could produce a surprise, is Nicola Ruffoni. CyclingQuotes have big expectations for the young Italian who beat Cavendish in stage 1 of the Tour of Britan last year and proved to be almost at the same level as Cavendish and Kittel in the final stage of that race. The young Italian should only improve and with more experience he will be better at positioning himself. He hasn’t done any racing yet but he is perfectly suited to this kind of fast criterium. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Italian wins the first race for Bardiani already on the first day.

 

Juan Jose Lobato is clearly the in-form sprinter at the moment. The Spaniard did extremely well in Australia in January and he is one of the sprinters who has a chance to win this race overall. He may not be perfectly suited to this kind of very fast sprint but in Australia, he finished second behind Kittel in the People’s Choice Classic, proving that he also has the speed for this kind of race. Unfortunately, he often has to started his sprint from a very poor position and unless he can solve that small issue, it will be hard for him to win.

 

There is no guarantee that Degenkolb will be the protected Giant-Alpecin sprinter. The German team may decide to play the Luka Mezgec card instead as the Slovenian is also one of the fastest riders in the business. Like Degenkolb he has no previous racing and unlike the German, he has usually started his seasons a bit slower. This means that he is likely to play a lead-out role. Furthermore, this kind of sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly but if he gets the chance and has Degenkolb as lead-out man, he has the speed to wind.

 

Speaking about speed, it is hard not to mention Andrea Guardini. The Italian is certainly one of the fastest riders in the world but he usually has troubles if there is just the slightest amount of climbing. This kind of fast criterium suits him down to the ground and this makes him a contender. He doesn’t have a lead-out train and he is usually poor at positioning himself. However, he improved on that aspect at the end of last year and this makes him a clear contender for the stage.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Alexander Porsev improved a lot in 2014 but he broke his collarbone in the Eneco Tour just as he was about to capitalize on his good form. This year he will be eager to get his big breakthrough and he may as well kick it off in Dubai. Last year he started his season really well and if he has the same kind of condition, he could produce a surprise in the Middle East.

 

On paper, this should be a day for Viviani but there is a chance that Sky may be riding for Ben Swift as the Brit could be an overall contender. He is usually not fast enough to win this kind of fast stages but he showed excellent condition in Mallorca. Furthermore, he can probably rely on one of the two strongest lead-out trains in the race. If he is delivered perfectly and doesn’t have one of the fastest guys on his wheel, he may get a surprise win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Elia Viviani

Outsiders: Nicola Ruffoni, Juan Jose Lobato, Luka Mezgec, Andrea Guardini

Jokers: Alexander Porsev, Ben Swift