Marcel Kittel (Giant-Shimano) again proved that he is the fastest sprinter in the world when he took a convincing win on the second stage of the Dubai Tour. The German faces a significantly harder challenge on the third day of the race which sends the riders into the Arabian desert and up two late climbs. The sprinters will have to dig deep to stay in contention and may also have to battle with the desert wind which could wreak havoc on the peloton when they leave the Dubai skyscrapers behind them. Starting at 10.45 CET, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

During their 4-day stage in Dubai, the riders will only get one chance to leave the city as the 162km run brings them from the centre of Dubai to Hatta which is located west of the city in the medium mountains. Unsurprisingly, the stage will be known as The Nature Stage and will be the only chance for the riders to test their climbing legs during the four days of competition.

 

From the start, the riders will follow flat roads as they head into the desert and will contest the first intermediate sprint at Mushrif Park already at the 18.8km mark. From there, the road will be slightly ascending as they get onto the Dubai-Hatta road that takes them into  the desert.

 

The stage will reach a temporary elevation peak in Al-Madam at the 74.6km mark and from there it will be very slightly downhill for the next 29.8km. With 57.6 of the 162km stage to go, the riders reach the feed zone where they will again start to climb, albeit only slightly. 41.8km from the finish they will contest the second intermediate sprint and 8.1km further down the road, they will reach the top of the first climb, 495km above sea level.

 

From there 33.7km remain and they consist of a downhill run to the city of Munai, followed by the second climb of the day that takes the riders back up to 417m. The final 7.1km will be made up of a short and fast descent and a flat run to the finish in Hatta. The riders will do their final left-hand turn 2.2km from the finish which leads onto the ascending finishing straight which has an average gradient of 2%.

 

 

 

The weather

Many riders were happy that the many buildings in Dubai kept them well-protected on today's windy stage and they only had to battle the crosswinds at the end when they headed onto the Atlantis island. Tomorrow they will race on far more exposed roads in the desert, making it far more likely that the wind could come into play.

 

However, the wind will calm considerably down and change direction during the evening and the conditions won't be as tough as today. At the start, there will only be a light wind from a northeastern direction but as the day goes on, it should pick up quite a bit, turning into a northern direction.

 

This means that the riders will have two long sections with a dangerous cross-tailwind that could potentially rip things apart. In between, there will be a headwind stretch while the riders will have a tailwind in the final part of the stage, making for a very fast run down towards the finish in Hatta.

 

It will be a sunny day, with more clouds making their presence felt towards the end. It will be slightly warmer than today, with the temperature expected to reach 20 degrees at its maximum.

 

The favourites

When the course for the Dubai Tour was revealed, most attention focused on tomorrow's third stage and the opening time trial. With tomorrow's route heading into the desert and passing two late climbs, it potentially has the change to make a shake-up of the overall classification and as little information has been provided about the nature of the climbs, many riders have been a little uncertain about what to expect.

 

Two elements may potentially prevent the big sprinters from again coming to the fore and produce the selection that could change the GC. The obvious elements are of course the two late climbs which take the riders up to almost 500m of altitude. The organizers haven't given any details about their nature but several riders have taken the chance to do a recon after arriving in Dubai.

 

After winning the prologue, Taylor Phinney described them as being short and steep and was quite confident that they wouldn't pose too much of a problem for the race leader. Based on the profile and the elevation data, they shouldn't be too difficult for the sprinters and if they reach the bottom near the front, most of them will be able to maintain contact with the main group.

 

The real danger is the wind as the peloton faces several sections where they will battle the feared cross-tailwind. Today they were too well-protected by the city to attack in the windy conditions but that won't be the case tomorrow. With exposed desert roads being the order of the day, we would expect that the wind produces some gaps tomorrow.

 

This will make for a very nervous stage, with all teams wanting to stay near the front, and we could easily see the exciting kind of racing that has made the Tour of Qatar famous. The nervousness will automatically cause the riders to up the pace and it would be naive to imagine that the early break will have any chance.

 

Instead, it will be up to the front group to decide things on the hills and we are guaranteed to see an attacking race. This is the only opportunity for the riders to test their climbing legs and the big names to show their faces and we could easily see some of them give it a go near the finish.

 

At the same time, several teams will be keen to ride tempo up the climbs to eliminate the fastest sprinters. Everybody wants to get rid of Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel and it would be no surprise to see teams like Cannondale, Trek, and Garmin-Sharp tapping out a fierce tempo on the ascents. This will make it hard for any escapees to stay away and we would imagine that it all comes down to a sprint finish.

 

The main question is which riders will survive the climbs and they will only be made harder for the sprinters by the tailwind which will make the pace higher. Nonetheless, we don't expect the climbs to rule out too many fast finishers and this means that we will again select our winner picks from the group of sprinters.

 

Our choice of favourite may be a controversial one but we expect Marcel Kittel to make it two in a row. The German has always been one of the first to get dropped on the climbs but towards the end of last year, he showed that he has made great strides in his climbing. In the Tour de France, he even managed to stay with the peloton on occasions whens Cavendish and Andre Greipel had already been dropped.

 

At the same time, Kittel has clearly done the work during the winter. His performance in the time trial where he was 11th, proved that he is in good condition and it was impressive to see how he easily worked on his own in the finale of today's stage that was plagued by strong winds. He has a strong team at his disposal and they will make sure that he gets to the bottom of the climbs near the front, and we doubt that they will be hard enough to put him out of contention. At the same time, his team is one of the best in the crosswinds and there is little risk of Kittel getting caught out.

 

Today Cavendish may not have had the chance to sprint but Kittel has proved several times that he is currently the fastest in the peloton. Lead-out riders Koen De Kort, Reinhardt Van Rensburg and an in-form Ramon Sinkeldam can be expected to survive the climbs and he should have solid support in the sprint. The climbs may take a bit out of his legs but he is likely to still be the fastest. The finishing straight is a bit uphill but he won a stage in last year's Paris-Nice in a much harder sprint and so it should be of little significance. By going full gas in the time trial, he proved that he is up for the GC challenge and doesn't expect to come up short on tomorrow's climbs and we expect him to come away with the goods.

 

If Kittel survives the climbs, Cavendish is likely to also remain in contention when the riders speed down the finishing straight. He may not be in the same kind of splendid condition as Kittel but his performances in San Luis and in the time trial suggest that he is riding well at the moment. Today's disappointing result was due to mistakes made by his team and we never got the chance to see exactly how strong he is.

 

It was a bit of a surprise to see that his team was unable to take control in the finale but all riders showed in the time trial that they are in great condition. Cavendish can expect that most of them will survive the climbs and he can expect to have more support than Kittel in the finale. With that kind of firepower at his disposal, Cavendish can expect his team to make amends for today's failure and Kittel needs to be right on his wheel to beat him.

 

If the stage proves more selective than we expect, the rider to beat is of course Peter Sagan. No one doubt that he will overcome the climbs and no one can catch Sagan out in a crosswinds section. His performance in the time trial and today's sprint indicate that he is going much better than he was in San Luis and tomorrow's stage is his biggest chance to take a win. The uphill finishing straight suits him perfectly but to take the win he needs to get rid of his faster rivals.

 

Hence, it would be no surprise to see Damiano Caruso and Marco Marcato ride tempo up the final climb. That will take something out of Sagan's team and he could find himself with limited support in the finale - especially with lead-out man Fabio Sabatini coming back from injury. However, he knows how to fend for him for himself in a sprint and all eyes will be on him to take the win if he manages to create a selective race.

 

However, he will have to keep a good eye on Giacomo Nizzolo who could easily take his second win of the season tomorrow. The Italian is a rather solid climber and is in very good condition and it is hard to imagine that he will be dropped on the climbs. Today he got a perfect lead-out from Fabian Cancellara but the stage may have been a bit too easy for him to match the faster riders.

 

That won't be the case tomorrow and with Cancellara, Eugenio Alafaci, and Danilo Hondo he has one of the best lead-out trains. If Cavendish has been left behind, it will be no surprise if Trek dominates the final few kilometres of the stage and Nizzolo has the speed to finish off the work in an uphill sprint that suits him perfectly.

 

There was no glory for Tyler Farrar in today's stage as the American got boxed in but he may not be too disappointed. The days when he can beat Kittel and Cavendish in a sprint are long gone and he will have had his eyes firmly fixed on today's stage which is his best chance for success. Farrar is a far more resistant rider than his faster rivals and in recent years he even seems to have improved his climbing. We could see him use his strong team to make the race a bit harder on the climbs. While he won't be the favourite, he has a fair chance in a sprint against Sagan and tomorrow could allow him to finally take a big win after a couple of difficult seasons.

 

Thor Hushovd never got the chance to sprint today after having had to fight back to the front after a late puncture. Like Farrar, the big Norwegian will not be too disappointed as he will have his focus on tomorrow's stage. Hushovd is not fast enough to mix it up with the best sprinters but at the end of a hard day, he is hard to beat. He has proved so on several occasions and indications in the second half of 2013 were that he is back to his best after a couple of difficult seasons. The team's main focus will be to protect Phinney who may also give it a shot in the sprint but it would be no surprise to see Hushovd get his first chance to show himself.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Alessandro Petacchi is in Dubai to support Cavendish but could get his chance tomorrow. The Italian is a far better climber than his captain and proved in the time trial that he is riding well at the moment. If Cavendish gets dropped, the team could quickly shift their focus to Petacchi who has made it clear that he wants to take the opportunities that occur along the way. He is clearly not as fast as he was some years ago but last year he proved that he still knows how to mix it up in a sprint. Tomorrow could be the day when he adds another win to his long list of victories.

 

***** Marcel Kittel

**** Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan

*** Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, Thor Hushovd

Joker: Alessandro Petacchi