After two days for the sprinters, it is time for a change of scenery when the Dubai Tour heads into the desert for the hardest stage in the history of the race. With a very steep 200m climb to the finish, everyone is a bit uncertain about to expect on a day when the puncheurs will come to the fore and the sprinters will try to limit their losses.

 

The course

During their 4-day stage in Dubai, the riders will only get one chance to leave the city for more than just a brief stint. Like last year, the third stage will bring them into the desert and over some of the small climbs in the area before they again will finish in Hatta. Fittingly, the stage is known as the desert stage and with a longer distance and a changed finale, it is set to be a harder and more decisive affair than it was 12 months ago.

 

Starting again from the Dubai International Marine Club, racers will head towards the desert and the Hatta enclave in the mountains on the border with Oman. This is the longest stage (205 km), marked by lengthy desert sectors rolling across the Hajar Mountains and three neighbouring Emirates: Sharjah, Ras-al-Khaimah and Fujairah. The first Intermediate Sprint is located just outside the urban centre, in Labab at the 56.2km mark.

 

Four climbs precede the exclave of Hatta. The first one is long and gradual, with a 3-4% slope, on a wide and well-surfaced road. The second Intermediate Sprint is set in Fayyad at the 148.5km mark, before the two sharp climbs (with a maximum gradient of 10-11%) leading to the Kalba Road tunnel. The first of those is 5.75km long and has a steep final part, with the final 2.75km averaging 6.1% and including a 10% section. The second is 2.65km long and has an average gradient of 8.9%, with a maximum of 11% near the top.

 

The fourth climb is 1.5 km-long, with a gradient of about 8%, peaking 11% in the final stretch, and with a demanding descent straight afterwards. The carriageway is quite wide and the road surface is excellent. The summit comes 11km from the finish and after the descent, there is another small 500m climb with a 9.1% average gradient. Then it’s slightly downhill before the riders hit flat roads with 7.5km to go.

 

From 20 to 5km, the riders have to be aware of rough concrete-paved fords called “wadis”. Between the city of Dubai and the mountains, the roads are wide and have an excellent surface, but there could be possible sand accumulation on the carriageway. The final 3km lead from the centre of Hatta to the finish line, located at the Hatta Dam, with gradients peaking as high as 17%.

 

The final 3 km are a continuous ascent, with some sharp bends leading to the final climb towards the Dam: a short, sharp rise of about 200 m, with gradients ranging from 12% to 17%. The first 100m have a gradient of around 8% but the final 100m are much steeper with gradients above 14%. The home stretch is 150 m-long, on 5 m-wide, asphalted roadway. The roads are mostly straight but there is a sharp turn at the bottom of the climb and then the road bends slightly to the left. At the end of the stage, riders will have faced a total elevation of 1200m.  

 

Last year’s stage was won by Marcel Kittel who impressed most of his rivals by hanging onto the field over the climbs before he beat Juan Jose Lobato and Peter Sagan in the sprint. As the German is not at the start in 2015, he won’t repeat the performance but the new finale would in any case have made it impossible for the German to make it two in a row in the queen stage.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders will be studying the weather forecast with care as most of the stage takes place in the desert where the wind can potentially wreak havoc on the peloton and cause more selection than the climbs late in the stage. There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind for the first big part of the stage, with a few cross-tailwind sections along the way. Importantly, there will be a tailwind on the first climb but then the riders turn into a headwind for the steep second climb. After the descent, it will be a crosswind for almost the entire final part of the race. In the final 5km, there will first be tailwind, then a headwind and finally a crosswind until the riders turn into a headwind for the short ramp to the finish.

 

After today’s very hot stage, the riders will be pleased to learn that tomorrow will be a bit colder. The temperature will reach a maximum of a pleasant 24 degrees. There may be a few clouds at the start but most of the stage will take place under bright sunshines.

 

The favourites

While the inaugural edition of the Dubai Tour was always set to come down to a battle between the time triallists, the teams have been a lot more uncertain about what to expect from the 2015 edition of the race. While three of the stages are completed geared towards the sprinters, tomorrow’s queen stage is a very tricky affair from which no one really knows what to expect. The stage clearly suits the puncheurs but how will the strong uphill sprinters like Ben Swift and Juan Jose Lobato handle the challenge? And will the sprinter be able to limit their losses so much that they remain in contention for the overall win.

 

A 200m climb is a very short one and this means that riders that the strongest sprinters should be able to use their power to get all the way to the top very quickly. On the other hand, this climb is very steep and gradients of excess of 17% in the final 100m could prove to be too much even for the likes of Lobato and Swift.

 

However, it would be a big mistake to reduce this stage just to a battle on the final steep ramp. There is some pretty tough climbing in the final part of the stage, with the second climb being a very tough affair. The sprinters will be happy to know that they will have a headwind up those slopes but 2.65km with an average gradient of 8.9% and with no room for recovery is a tough affair. The final two small climbs inside the final 15km will also do their fair of damage and even though they are not very long, they will take the sting out of the legs. Finally, the final part of the stage will be raced in a crosswind and this will add another dimension of uncertainty to the stage.

 

Hilly stages are often pretty aggressive but with a long flat opening part and the overall win at stake, everybody knows that the first part will be pretty controlled. We may see a bit more action in the first part than we have seen in the first two stages but the early break is likely to be established pretty early. The intermediate sprints both come pretty early and with a tailwind, there will be no big nervousness in the peloton. Hence, the escapees are likely to pick up all the bonus seconds, meaning that the battle for the overall will be left to the finale.

 

Everybody is a bit uncertain about what to expect and this means that it will be very interesting to see which teams take control in the long opening part. Etixx-QuickStep don’t have a real winner candidate in this stage but they will be hopeful that Mark Cavendish can limit his losses and win the overall. Hence, they should have a keen interest in making sure that the early breakaway doesn’t get too much of an advantage.

 

Movistar’s tactics are a bit uncertain. On paper, they have the biggest favourite in Alejandro Valverde but the Spaniard has indicated that he will mainly use this race as training which could see them put their full support behind Juan Jose Lobato. In any case, however, this is their biggest chance to win a stage and so we would expect the Spanish team to do their fair share of the work. Sky have also shown that they have overall ambitions in this race and may also lend a hand, meaning that there should be enough firepower to keep things under control.

 

The really interesting point comes when the riders hit the first two climbs which are the hardest in the race. If sprinters like Cavendish and Elia Viviani survive those two ascents, they should be able to hang onto the bottom of the final ramp. If one of them wins the final stage, they can allow themselves to lose 16 and 14 seconds respectively and it should be doable for them on a 200m ramp. To have a real shot at the overall, the other teams have to really apply the pressure on those two climbs.

 

Movistar have a formidable team of climbers in this race and they are likely to use it to try to make the race hard. Tinkoff-Saxo and Katusha may have similar plans and we should see some of those teams go fast up the climbs. On paper, the second of the two climbs should be too tough for the likes of Cavendish and Viviani but with a headwind they have a chance. If they lose contact, we should see a big chase between the teams in the finale and if they manage to get back in time for the finale, one of them is likely to win the overall. The crosswinds will add an extra element of uncertainty and there is a chance that it will split things even though it is unlikely to happen.

 

We may some riders try an attack on one of the final two climbs but it will be virtually impossible to get clear. The long flat road in the finale means that the peloton will be able to ride much faster than a few attackers and with a 200m ramp to the finish, positioning means everything. This means that there will be a huge battle for position which will make it a very fast finale.

 

In any case, the stage should come down to an uphill sprint and here it is very hard to look past Alejandro Valverde as the man to beat. As always, the Movistar captain is in excellent condition right from the beginning of the year as he proved when he crushed the opposition in the hardest race of the Challenge Mallorca. Usually, he is very hard to beat in this kind of uphill sprint and he will relish the fact that the gradients are very steep.

 

The only element of uncertainty is Valverde’s approach to the stage. As said, he has made it clear that he is mainly here to build condition and Movistar may decide to support Juan Jose Lobato. On the other hand, Valverde is such an obvious favourite that it will be hard for the Spaniard to resist the temptation. After all, he has a very competitive mindset and he rarely enters a race without the ambition to win. The way he has been careful to ride near the front with his teammates in the first two stages indicates that he is still targeting the overall and so we expect him to go for it.

 

If it just came down to an uphill sprint, we wouldn’t expect anyone to beat Valverde but the battle for position will be crucial. Valverde is unlikely to take too many risks and if he is not in one of the first positions, it will be hard for him to win. On the other hand, he is supported by a very strong team that also has plenty of firepower on the flats – Adriano Malori, Jesus Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Jonathan Catsroviejo – are all there and they should be strong enough to keep their Spanish captain near the front.

 

For a long time, we haven’t mentioned Filippo Pozzato as a potential winner of a bike race but this time we will make an exception. The Italian rode very strongly in the second half of the 2014 season and he climbed surprisingly well in the Tour de San Luis. He seems to have overcome his troubles and may be going into a great 2015 season.

 

This kind of uphill sprint suits him really well and he will definitely be keen to test himself. As a classics contender, he knows how to fight for position and even though he won’t have the strongest team at his side, he will be up there. The finale may be a bit too steep for him but as he has proved in the Tour of Flanders, he can also handle very steep gradients. Tomorrow may be the day when Pozzato finally returns to his winning ways.

 

On paper, this stage suits Philippe Gilbert down to the ground but it is very hard to say how the Belgian is going. This is his first race of the year and he is rarely in very good condition at this time of the year. Furthermore, he has played down expectations and says that he is mainly here to build his form for later objectives.

 

On the other hand, he has made sure to stay near the front in the crosswinds and stage finales and this suggests that he is keen to give it a go. The finale is a bit too steep to suit him perfectly but as a former winner of Fleche Wallonne he can handle steep gradients too. On paper, he is the only one who could really challenge Valverde here and if he is a decent condition, he should be up there.

 

Juan Jose Lobato is an excellent uphill sprinter as he proved a few times in 2014 and in the Stirling stage of the Tour Down Under. Furthermore, he is in excellent condition at the moment and there is no doubt that he is targeting this stage. Even if Valverde decides to go for it, the Spaniard may be allowed to do his own sprint and then he will be an obvious candidate.

 

However, a 20% gradient is a big challenge for a rider like Lobato and even though it is over a very short distance, it will be hard for him to hold off the better climbers. Furthermore, he is not very good at positioning himself and this will make winning a tough affair. Due to his good condition which is very important at this time of the year, he may create a surprise.

 

Katusha have Joaquim Rodriguez in this race and on paper such a steep finale should suit him perfectly. However, the Spaniard is never in good condition at this time of the year and he doesn’t have any expectations for this stage. He may give it a go but he won’t take any risks in the fight for position and this makes him a very unlikely winner.

 

Instead, we will point to his teammate Sergey Chernetskii. The Russian is constantly improving and even though he is not yet strong enough to climb with the best, he has proved his skills in uphill sprints like in the 2014 Tour of Beijing and the 2013 Vuelta a Burgos. Having made it through the Vuelta made him a lot stronger in the final part of 2014 and he will only have become better. His condition is very uncertain but he has done a lot of work to stay in good position over the first few days, meaning that he is confident in his own chances.

 

Lars Boom is mainly known as a specialist on the cobbles but he is actually a very fast sprinter too. In the past, he has won the Ster ZLM Toer by shining in this kind of uphill sprints. Usually a 20% gradient should be too much for him but at this point of the year, condition is the most important. He is reportedly 5kg lighter than he was one year ago and he climbed really well in the Tour Down Under. He will definitely test his legs in this stage and he has the speed to come out on top.

 

Another strong uphill sprinter is Ben Swift who climbed excellently in the Challenge Mallorca and is always very strong at this time of the year. He showed his intentions in stage 1 when he picked up a few bonus seconds and after a few days playing the support role, he is likely to be the Sky leader tomorrow. Like Lobato, he may struggle on this kind of steep gradients and we doubt that he will be able to match the better climbers. On such a short distance, however, he may create a surprise.

 

Grega Bole is the third great uphill sprinter in this race and he is in great condition. He finished 7th in the hardest race of the Challenge Mallorca and in the past he has showed that he can be up there in even very hard uphill sprints. He has been away from the top level for a season but he definitely has the skills to shine in this kind of finale.

 

Geraint Thomas was not riding very well in the Tour Down Under as he aims for a slower start to his season and he hasn’t been riding like a protected rider in the first few stages. If the stage is too hard for Swift, however, he should take over the leadership and on paper, the finale suits him well. Again it may be a bit too steep for him to really use his fast sprint but with a solid Australian stage race in his legs, he should now have the condition to be up there.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Ag2r have been riding very attentively to keep Mikael Cherel out of trouble and this indicates that they have confidence in their French climber. He is usually pretty strong at this time of the year and he has a decent turn of speed. He has never really featured in uphill sprints but being the clear leader of his team, he will get his chance and he has the skills to produce a surprise.

 

On paper, this stage suits Enrico Battaglin down to the ground but he was riding very poorly in the Tour de San Luis. Hence, we don’t expect him to have the condition to be up there. On the other hand, he picked up a few bonus seconds in stage 1 to be in a good position overall and this indicates that he will give it a shot. If his condition has improved, he should find the finale to his liking.

 

Robert Kiserlovski is a pure climber and this finish should be a bit too explosive to suit him well. On the other hand, he is always pretty strong in the early season and he will be keen to get his Tinkoff-Saxo career off to a good start. Last year he showed a decent punch in this kind of very steep uphill sprint in the Giro d’Italia and even though this climbs is so short that he is unlikely to win the stage, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the top 10.

 

The same can be said for his teammate Michael Valgren who is fast and excels on this kind of short, steep climbs. He rode really well in his debut season and seemed to get stronger as the year went on. He still needs to prove that he can be up there with the very best in this kind of finale but on paper he has the skills to be there.

 

If Philippe Gilbert is not ready for this kind of effort, BMC may turn their attention to another classics specialist. Daniel Oss didn’t really get a chance to show himself in the 2014 classics as he was suffering from a knee injury but in 2013 he proved that he has a very big potential. He is both very fast and a solid climber and even though it should be a bit too steep for him, he may be able to handle such a short ascent.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Juan Jose Lobato, Sergei Chernetskii, Lars Boom, Ben Swift, Grega Bole, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Enrico Battaglin, Mikael Cherel, Robert Kiserlovski, Michael Valgren, Daniel Oss