Mark Cavendish dug deep to limit his losses sufficiently to stay in contention for the overall win but had bad luck as the stage and overall lead was taken by another faster finisher, John Degenkolb. With the two top sprinters separated by just 4 seconds and bonus seconds on offer, the Dubai Tour is set for a thrilling finale in the expected bunch sprint in front of Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

 

The course

The sprinters will have been out of the spotlight for 24 hours but they should again get their chance to go for glory on the final stage which is known as the Burj stage. The riders will be back in the city for a traditional final stage that is very similar to the one that ended last year’s race. However, the distance has again been slightly increased as the riders will do 128km instead of last year’s 123km.

 

Last year the riders zigzagged their way through the old part of the city on a sinuous system of small circuits before the finished in front of Burj Khalifa, the tallest skyscraper in the World at 830 metres. This year, however, the criterium-like format has been abandoned as there is no circuit and instead the riders will do a big loop in the city before they head back to the same spectacular finish.

 

This stage rolls across Dubai Old and New Town. The course first heads from the start at the Dubai International Marine Club towards the huge Meydan Racecourse (Intermediate Sprint at the 12.8km mark), it then crosses Mushrif Park and hits the Al Mamzar beach; after rolling across Deira, the Al Maktoum Bridge and throughout the Old Town, the route brushes past Port Rashid and enters the coastal Jumeirah Road. The second Intermediate Sprint is set in front of the majestic Union Flag at the 93.6km mark. After taking a U-turn at Burj-al-Arab to cruise back up along Jumeirah Road, the stage course then hits the Burj Khalifa, where the finish line is set.

 

Five and a half kilometres before the finish, the stage course diverts from Jumeirah Road and heads towards the final bend that comes with 1,100 metres to the finish. To get there, the riders will go through three turns in quick succession before they hit a straight road that leads to the final bend. Here, the course then hits the Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Boulevard, where the finish line is set after 1,000 m on a slightly bending, 7.5 m-wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the second year in a row, the wind failed to split things in the Dubai Tour and that won’t change in the final stage. Saturday is set to be the perfect day for a bike race as the riders will be greeted by bright sunshine and a maximum temperature of a very pleasant 24 degrees.

 

There will be less wind than there has been in previous days, with a light wind blowing from a northwesterly direction. It will pick up a bit as the day goes on. The riders will have a crosswind when they ride along the seafront while they will first have a tailwind and then a headwind when they do the loop in the city. In the finale, they will turn into a tailwind when they leave the coast before they will have a crosswind in the 1000m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The organizers of the Dubai Tour could probably not have wished for a better scenario before the final stage of the race. The queen stage turned out to be just as exciting as they had hoped for and it kept the race exciting right until the end as all is still to play for in the final stage.

Going into the race, Mark Cavendish and John Degenkolb were the two big-name sprinters and the organizers had definitely hoped for a big clash between the two giants. That failed to materialize in the first two sprint stages but after Degenkolb’s impressive showing in today’s queen stage, those two riders will now fight it out for the overall win on the final, with just 4 seconds separating them.

 

The final stage is a short, flat affair in the city of Dubai and this means that it is determined to end in a big bunch sprint. With very little wind expected, we should see no time gaps open up among the leading contenders and this means that the race will be decided by bonus seconds.

 

The difference between first and second place is 4 seconds which is exactly what Cavendish needs to be equal on time with Degenkolb. If the Brit wins the stage and Degenkolb takes second, it will come down to a countback. Impressively, the sum of both riders’ stage placings is 20 and this means that Cavendish will take the overall win if he wins the stage. In fact, it will be enough for Cavendish to beat Degenkolb if he finishes in the top 3 and the pair don’t get second and third respectively.

 

There are bonus seconds up for grabs in the two intermediate sprints and the first one comes already at the 12.8km mark. It is a doable task for a team to keep things together until that point. As Cavendish will win the race if he wins the stage, Etixx-QuickStep will probably focus entirely on the finish and so they are unlikely to do the work. Giant-Alpecin won’t do it either but there may be other teams that see a chance to move up a bit in the overall standings. Furthermore, we can expect a pretty aggressive start as many teams are forced to go on the attack to get some kind of visibility in the race and this means that it may take some time for the break to get established. Hence, the peloton could still be together at the first intermediate sprint and so we could see the GC contenders sprint for the seconds. However, they may also use some of their lead-out men to pick up the seconds to save their legs for the final sprint.

 

When the break has gone, it could be a pretty strong one as that is often the case on this kind of flat, final stages. As the distance is also very short, they will probably be kept firmly under control. Giant-Alpecin will have to do the early work but they will probably share it with Etixx-QuickStep who need a sprint finish to win the race. Astana and Sky also believe in their sprinters and they may both lend a hand as they have done in previous stages. There will be plenty of firepower and this means that the race will definitely come down to a bunch sprint.

 

The final intermediate sprint comes with 29.4km to go and as Etixx-QuickStep don’t need the bonus seconds, the break will probably still be clear at that point. If that isn’t the case, the top sprinters will save their legs for the final sprint and instead it may be a chance for riders like Marco Canola, Grega Bole, Filippo Pozzato and Philippe Gilbert to move up a few positions in the overall standings.

 

Ultimately, the race will be decided in a sprint and the finale is not very technical. The final 4km only have a single turn which comes at the flamme rouge, meaning that it will be a pretty long finishing straight. Furthermore, the road is pretty wide which means that it will be easier to move up. Hence, actual speed will be pretty important while team support plays less of a role.

 

Nonetheless, it will still be a big advantage to start the stage from one of the first positions. When it comes to lead-outs, Sky and Etixx-QuickStep have proved that they are in a class of their own. Those two teams have dominated the finales in the first two sprint stages and tomorrow that is likely to be the case again.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have come up short on both occasions as Sky have had more power in the finales. In stage 1, the Belgians were passed by the Sky train and only a bad decision by Ben Swift and Elia Viviani allowed Cavendish to take the win. In stage 2, they lost the drag race to the final turn and had to ride too much in the wind which cost Cavendish a bit too much energy.

 

However, both sprints proved that Cavendish is probably the fastest rider in the bunch. In stage 1, he managed to hold onto the lead despite doing a very long sprint and in stage 2, he came back from a poor start to get pretty close to Elia Viviani in the end. Etixx-QuickStep may have come up a little bit short against Sky in the first sprints but they are still among the two best teams and there is no doubt that Cavendish will be among the first riders when the sprint is launched. When it comes to pure speed, only Andrea Guardini is usually fast enough to challenge the Brit and as Cavendish is likely to be better positioned, he is our winner pick.

 

Andrea Guardini has had a great start to his season after he nearly won stage 1 and finished third in stage 3. The Italian is a pure sprinter who excels when the sprint comes at the end of a short, easy stage. This has made him a specialist in this kind of easy final stages where he can make use of his impressive speed to take the win. It was no coincidence that he was much faster in stage 2 than in stage 1 as the former was generally a harder affair.

 

While he has the speed to win, Guardini doesn’t have the best lead-out. However, Alexey Lutsenko and Ruslan Tleubayev actually did a really good job in stage 2, proving that Astana has improved a lot in this area. They are unlikely to dominate the finale but they should be able to position Guardini decently and if that is the case, he has the speed to beat Cavendish.

 

In stage 2, Elia Viviani again proved that he has the speed to beat Cavendish. He did so in the Tour of Turkey last year and by doing so in Dubai, he has proved that he is a genuine challenger. His main asset is not his speed though. This race has proved that the new Sky lead-out train is very strong and the combination Eisel-Fenn-Swift-Viviani has turned out to be stronger than Martin-Sabatini-Renshaw-Cavendish.

 

However, this stage doesn’t suit Viviani very well. Yesterday the sprint came after a longer, harder day while tomorrow’s stage will be very easy. On paper, the likes of Cavendish and Guardini will benefit from being fresher in the finale and this means that Viviani has to be in the perfect position to win the sprint. However, Sky have proved that they have the speed to dominate the finale and if they can do so again, Viviani may take win number 2.

 

Many eyes will be on John Degenkolb in the finale as he has the overall win within reach. As it is almost guaranteed that he needs to beat Cavendish to win the race overall, he has to focus on his own sprint instead of having his eyes on the overall.

 

Until now he has not had much success in the sprints. In stage 1, he put himself in the service of Luka Mezgec while he did a pretty poor sprint in stage 2 where he clearly drifted backwards when the likes of Cavendish, Viviani and Guardini put down the hammer.

 

However, Degenkolb is usually a very fast sprinter who dominated last year’s Vuelta and in the Tour of California he was actually faster than Cavendish. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the same kind of team support that he usually has and until now, Giant-Alpecin have also been hampered by bad luck, with Roy Curvers and Chad Haga both being set back before the lead-out in stage 1. However, those incidents can’t change the fact that only Luka Mezgec and Roy Curvers are part of the usual lead-out train and they will have a hard time going up against Sky and Etixx-QuickStep. As such a short, easy stage doesn’t suit Degenkolb very well, it will be hard for him to win. Nonetheless, he remains a contender as he is usually very fast and has proved that his form is very good.

 

Until now we haven’t seen much from Nicola Ruffoni who has been poorly positioned in the first two sprints. When he finally found an opening in stage 2, however, he came very fast and in last year’s Tour of Britain he also proved that he has the speed to go up against the likes of Cavendish and Marcel Kittel. This kind of easy, flat stage suits him well and with a wide finishing straight, there is less of a chance that he will be boxed in. He can’t rely on much team support but if he is not too far back when the sprint starts, he has the speed to win.

 

Alexander Porsev has twice finished fourth and now he finally hopes to make it into the top 3. The Russian took a massive step up in 2014 and we expect big things from him in 2015. He may not be fast enough to beat the best sprinters in this race but he is not far off the mark. Furthermore, he has been great at positioning himself and this makes him an obvious podium contender.

 

Juan Jose Lobato has not had much luck in the sprints but today he again proved that his condition is fabulous. He was clearly the fastest in the uphill sprint but as it has often been the case, he was set back by a very poor position. He is unlikely to overcome that weakness in tomorrow’s stage and as he has done in almost every sprint this year, he will probably have to come from far back. This time, however, there is more room to move up and this gives him his best chance to produce a top result.

 

Finally, we will select a joker. Andrea Palini has been forced to step down to continental level but the former Lampre-Merida rider is desperate to prove that he belongs to the WorldTour. This year he actually has the chance to ride for himself and he got the year off to a great start in the Tour of Egypt. He wasn’t too confident in the build-up to this race as he has been set back by illness but he has been sprinting really well. He ended the season strongly at the Tour of Hainan and he must have lots of confidence. This is one of the biggest races of his season and so he will be willing to take a few more risks which could see him crack into the top 3.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: Andrea Guardini, Elia Viviani

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Nicola Ruffoni, Alexander Porsev, Juan Jose Lobato

Joker: Andrea Palini