Many riders will be hoping to get an easy introduction to the Eneco Tour and on paper the first stage should be one for the sprinters. However, rain and strong winds are forecasted and even though some kind of sprint is likely to decide the stage, a few GC contenders could lose their chances already on the opening day.

 

The course

Since the organizers decided to abandon the idea of an opening prologue in 2012, the Eneco Tour has usually started with a flat stage for the sprinters. 2014 will be no exception and after last year’s start in Belgium, it will be the Netherlands that sends off the peloton. The riders will start their race in Terneuzen in the completely flat part of the country where they will do a 181.9km circuit race around the city.

 

The centre of the stage is a 21.5km circuit around the city which will bookend the stage. First the riders will do a full lap with the first 5.3km being neutralized. Having returned to the finish, they will take on another 59.7km circuit that takes them through the area west of the city. After the next passage of the finish line, a 84.5km circuit in the area east of the city will challenge the riders before they end the stage with a final lap of the small 21.5km circuit.

 

The race may be made up of three different circuits but when it comes to the terrain, they are pretty identical. They are all completely flat and so the challenge won’t be the climbs. However, Terneuzen is located in the usually very windy Middelburg province close to the sea and so the wind has the potential to blow the race to pieces.

 

The finishing circuit is not very technical but near the finish there are a number of roundabouts. The final one comes 1.9km from the finish and from there the riders follow a wide road that has a number of sweeping left-hand bends, all the way to the finish line.

 

Terneuzen has hosted stage finishes twice in the past. In 2007, Wouter Weylandt took one of the biggest victories of his short career while Daniele Bennati won another bunch sprint one year later.

 

 

The weather

On paper, stage 1 should be one for the sprinters but if the wind is strong, it can be one of the most decisive of the entire race. Racing in the Zeeland region has always been very dangerous if the weather is bad and it seems that the riders will have to tackle the stage in brutal conditions.

 

It may be dry at the start but almost the entire stage will take place under the rain. It will be pretty cold too as the maximum temperature will be around 17 degrees. There will be a pretty strong wind from a southwesterly direction. This sets the scene for some dramatic racing as the riders will mostly have a crosswind on all three circuits.

 

In the finale, the riders will have a tailwind before turning into a crosswind for the final few kilometres. A sweeping bend leads onto the finishing straight where there will be a headwind.

 

The favourites

When the organizers designed this stage, they probably hoped for bad weather. Racing in the Zeeland province can be extremely dramatic and very exciting if the wind is strong and it seems that the weather gods will fulfill the wishes.

 

A windy opening to the race will make the overall winner of the race a much more complete rider. The Eneco Tour can be said to crown the king of the classics as you need to master both the cobbles and the Ardennes to win the race. With the addition of bad weather and windy conditions, the picture becomes even more complete and those conditions are often dominant in the spring season.

 

The wind should definitely be strong enough to create some very nervous racing but it is hard to say whether it will split the field. Attacks in the crosswinds are usually most efficient when nobody expects them and tomorrow everyone will go into the stage expecting a huge spectacle.

 

Furthermore, it is harder to create a selection in this kind of race than in a grand tour stage. In the big stage races, a big part of the peloton is made up of skinny climbers who don’t excel in these conditions. In the Eneco Tour, the field is made up of big classics guys that all know how to handle this kind of racing and this raises the bar when it comes to creating a selection.

 

Very early a breakaway will probably take off. Everybody knows that this stage will either be controlled by the sprint teams or a real crosswinds drama and so most teams won’t spend any energy by going on the attack. We can expect teams like Europcar, Topsport and Wanty to send a rider off the front and they could be joined by a few riders that are keen to avoid the great nervousness in the peloton.

 

The windy conditions will make the peloton very nervous and so the group is unlikely to gain much ground. As everybody wants to stay near the front, the battle for position will automatically up the pace and the sprint teams may not have to do much chase work. We can expect Lotto Belisol, Giant-Shimano and FDJ to put a rider on the front to keep the situation under control but they may soon get swamped by the GC teams who want to keep their leaders near the front.

 

It will be a surprise if no team tries to make an attack in the windy conditions. Omega Pharma-Quick Step, BMC, Belkin and Lotto all excel in these conditions and they are the ones most likely to give it a try. Due to the high level of the field, we doubt that they will succeed but their attacks should provide some exciting racing.

 

The wind is not the only aspect that can create a selection. The nervousness will definitely cause a few crashes and they could split the peloton. The Eneco Tour is one of the most crash-marred races of the entire season and it will be a surprise if all riders get through the stage unscathed.

 

Regardless of any potential splits, the race will be decided in some kind of sprint and the stage will definitely be won by one of the many fast finishers that are lined up in this race. If the race proves to be selective, however, it may not just be a matter of speed as the sprinters need to be strong enough to make the splits.

 

It is hard to look beyond André Greipel as the man to beat. On paper, the German is the best sprinter in this race and even though he didn’t make the strongest impression in the Tour, he still showed some great speed by winning a stage. As Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish are both absent, he should be the fastest rider in this field.

 

His main asset is his strong lead-out. Over the last few years, the Lotto Belisol train has been the best in the world but this year they have had a harder time. In the Tour de France, they failed completely and were clearly overshadowed by Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Giant-Shimano.

 

However, none of those teams have their best trains in this race and Lotto line up almost their entire train. Only Greg Henderson is missing but he will be replaced by Jens Debusschere. The combination Marcel Sieberg-Jens Debusschere-Jürgen Roelandts-Greipel is very powerful and should be strong enough to dominate the finale. The power sprint should suit Greipel perfectly and he is very unlikely to miss any splits in the crosswinds.

 

Greipel hasn’t raced since the Tour and so his condition is a bit uncertain. However, history shows that he is always strong in this race and it would be a surprise if it is any different in 2014. Being the fastest sprinter and the one with the best lead-out, he will be the man to beat.

 

The race marks the comeback for Nacer Bouhanni who hasn’t raced since the French championships. However, the Frenchman is building form for the Vuelta and should be at a decent level. When it comes to top speed, he is probably the only rider that can potentially challenge Greipel and this makes him an obvious winner candidate.

 

Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kind of lead-out as Greipel but he doesn’t need one. He is excellent at positioning himself and rarely misses the top 5 in a sprint. It would be no surprise if he finds himself on the right wheel in the finale and then it takes a very fast sprinter to hold him off. His main disadvantage is his lack of experience in windy conditions but if he makes the selection, he will be a major favourite.

 

Tom Boonen may no longer be as fast as he once was but a number of aspects suggest that he will have a chance in tomorrow’s stage. First of all the windy conditions should make it a very hard race and Boonen is one of the fastest in the end of a race of attrition.

 

Furthermore, Boonen has a very strong lead-out train and the likes of Niki Terpstra, Matteo Trentino and Gert Steegmans should definitely be strong enough to go up against Lotto Belisol. This kind of power sprint suits Boonen perfectly and if he is delivered on the front, he will be hard to pass. His condition is a bit uncertain as he missed the Tour de Wallonie due to a training crash but as he is now pain free he should be in the mix.

 

Luka Mezgec seemed to be the fastest sprinter in the Tour de Pologne but was always denied in the sprint finishes and left the race empty-handed. He will get a chance to make amends in this race but here he faces a tougher opposition.

 

Giant-Shimano are famously known for their strong lead-outs but in this race he doesn’t have the best team at his disposal. Roy Curvers, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg and especially Tom Veelers provide a decent firepower but they may come up short against OPQS and Lotto. In Poland, however, Mezgec proved that he has taken great leaps forward when it comes to sprinting and if his team manages to put him into position he definitely has a chance.

 

In the Giro, Giacomo Nizzolo was the perennial runner-up and he is knocking on the door for a big victory. For him to win a stage in this race would be a big achievement and he is definitely one of the fastest riders in this race. Having crashed out of the Dauphiné, he made his comeback in the Tour de Wallonie where he won a stage before illness took him out of the race.

 

In the Giro, Nizzolo proved that he is almost as fast as Bouhanni and in this race he has a very strong team to support him. Eugenio Alafaci, the Van Poppel brothers and Danilo Hondo all know how to mix it up in a sprint. With the exception of Danny Van Poppel, they all rode together in the Giro and know how to work together. If they can drop Nizzolo off in a good position, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

In the Tour de Pologne, Sacha Modolo showed that he is not in best condition yet as he is still coming back from illness. However, he still made use of his great positioning skills to take a few top results and in this race he should be riding at a higher level.

 

Most importantly, however, he will be surrounded by Davide Cimolai and Maximilano Richeze who have been guiding him to most of his successes in 2014. With the added firepower of Niccolo Bonifazio and Filippo Pozzato, he has a very strong team to get him into position. On paper, he is one of the fastest riders in this field and if he has improved since Poland he has a chance.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. The last few seasons have been hard for Matthew Goss who is no longer the sprinter he once was. He is definitely not as fast as he once was but his main problem seems to be positioning. He needs a very strong team to position himself well and occasionally he has shown that he is still pretty fast.

 

In this race, he has a very strong lead-out as he can count on Aidis Kruopis, Leigh Howard and Jens Keukeleire. There is no guarantee that Goss will be the protected sprinter but on paper he should be faster than both Howard and Kruopis. They do not have a lot of experience in working together but if they can time things right, Goss should have the speed to finish it off.

 

Andrea Guardini is one of the fastest riders in the world but he rarely mixes it up with the best due to his poor positioning. However, he goes into the race with lots of confidence as he has just won two stages in the Tour of Denmark. In this race, Borut Bozic, Velntin Iglinskiy and Ruslan Tleubayev should provide him with solid support and this may help him overcome his troubles at positioning himself. He is likely to finish outside the top 10 but if he gets a clear run to the line, he will be a danger man.

 

Belkin lines up Barry Markus as their sprinter and he has not had many chances to sprint for himself in his first year with the team. However, the Dutchman is very fast. His main problem is his poor positioning and in this race he doesn’t have an awful lot of support. This means that he will probably finish far back but if he manages to position himself well, he has the speed to win.

 

Lotto Belisol have not fully dedicated themselves to Greipel as they don’t know how he will be feeling after a few weeks without competition. This means that Jens Debusschere may get his chance. The Belgian champion is sprinting really well at the moment as he proved when he won the Belgian drikleur and a stage in the Tour de Wallonie. He is likely to ride in support of Greipel but if he gets his chance, he may create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Tom Boonen

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Giacomo Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo

Jokers: Matthew Goss, Andrea Guardini, Barry Markus, Jens Debusschere