Andrea Guardini again put his great form on show when he won a hugely confusing first bunch sprint in which almost all the big names failed to get involved. They will get a chance to make amends in tomorrow’s second stage but with more bad weather forecasted, it should be another very nervous and dangerous affair that will be difficult to control for the sprint teams.

 

The course

The sprinters that missed out on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the race continues with another completely flat stage in the Netherlands. Overnight the riders have travelled a bit farther away from the coast but they are still in a part of the country that can be pretty windy.

 

The second stage will bring them over 175.8km from Waalwijk to Vlijmen which are located pretty close to each other and the race is again made up of a number of circuits. First the riders will travel the short 22.9km distance from the start to the finish and then they will do two laps of a 45km circuit that includes the opening stretch and so takes them back to the start area twice.

 

Having completed the second lap of that circuit, the riders end the stage by doing a lap of an extended 63km circuit which includes an additional section in the area east of the finishing city of Vlijmen. Like in the opening stage, the terrain is completely flat all day.

 

The finish is a bit more technical than it was in the opening stage. The riders will do a left-hand turn 2.8km from the finish before they turn left in a roundabout 1.6km from the line. The final 90-degree right-hand turn comes just 600m from the line, meaning that positioning for that corner will be very important for the outcome of the stage.

 

Vlijmen already hosted a stage in last year’s race when André Greipel beat Giacomo Nizzolo in what turned out to be the only true bunch sprint of the race. Lars Boom scored bonus seconds along the way to take the leader’s jersey on the day the race finished in his home city.

 

 

The weather

Plenty of rain had been forecasted for today’s stage but apart from a small shower near the end, the riders got to ride in dry conditions. Tomorrow bad weather is again forecasted but this time there is a bigger chance that there will be no rain.

 

It will be a cloudy day with risks of showers throughout the entire stage but the intensity of the showers should decrease as the day goes on. There will be a maximum temperature of around 16 degrees, making it another crisp day in the saddle.

 

Like today, however, the main danger will be the wind as there will be a strong wind from a sourtwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have either a cross-headwind or a cross-tailwind on the many circuits that make up the course and so there should be lots of room for aggressive riding. In the final kilometres, the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind. Despite the many turns that should be the case for the final 3km of the stage.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage showed what can happen when it’s windy, the racing is hectic and the roads are slippery. No team managed to organize any kind of lead-out and so the sprint ended up being extremely confusing. As more bad weather is forecasted – the wind will even be a bit strong, we can expect more of the same in what will definitely not be an easy stage of the sprint teams.

 

Today’s stage was windy but as we had already predicted in yesterday’s preview, it was not strong enough to split things. Everybody knew about the dangers posed by the strong wind and as all teams have brought their best classics riders to this race, it was no surprise that it was impossible to break things up. When all teams know about the dangers and have brought their A teams, the wind has to be very strong to make a difference and even though tomorrow’s stage should be even windier, we don’t think that it will be enough to make any interesting splits that put sprinters or GC riders out of contention.

 

Nonetheless, we should be in for more of the same as everybody will be very nervous. All teams want to stay near the front and like today there is lots of road furniture on the circuits. Today’s stage was marred by several crashes – one of them caused a time loss for one of the outsiders, Silvan Dillier – and tomorrow is likely to see more riders hit the deck. Things will only get even more treacherous if the roads are wet.

 

Like today, everybody knows that this is a day for the sprinters and that the nervousness will make it impossible for the early break to stay away. Hence, we can expect the break to be formed almost straight from the gun and it will be a surprise if both Wanty and Topsport Vlaanderen are not involved. Both teams have set their sights on the Primus sprint jersey which Laurens De Vreese has made his specialty and there is a solid chance that the young Belgian will again be part of the break.

 

We can expect Astana to take control of the peloton and they will probably get assistance from Lotto Belisol and FDJ. Like today, Omega Pharma-Quick Step may also lend a hand but the main work will be left to those four teams.

 

In the second half of the race, however, the peloton will be extremely nervous and like today it means that the sprint teams will probably not have to do any kind of organized chase. The fast pace will automatically bring back the early break and there is a chance that a few teams will try to split things up a bit. BMC, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Lotto Belisol, Trek and Sky are the ones most likely to make a move but the wind is probably not strong enough to make a difference.

 

We may see some late attacks but it is very hard to imagine that this stage will not be decided in a bunch sprint, especially since there is mainly a cross-headwind in the final part of the stage. However, it should be another very confusing affair as the fight for position and windy conditions will make it very hard for the teams to stay together. The cross-headwind will complicate things further and it will be difficult to time a lead-out and avoid getting swamped.

 

This means that it won’t necessarily be a sprint for the riders that are mostly reliant on their teams and instead it could be one for those who know how to jump from wheel to wheel to get into good position. Positioning will be important though as the late corner means that it will be hard to come from too far back. Finally, the headwind means that timing will be crucial.

 

Nacer Bouhanni didn’t get his race off to the best start as he had to brake hard to avoid a late crash and so got slightly out of position in the finale. He managed to get back to the front positions but like most other big sprinter he was boxed in the finish and never got the chance to sprint.

 

However, the stage showed that he is already riding well despite this being his first race for almost two months. He rode attentively in the crosswinds and was always in a good position. It is still hard to say what kind of condition he is in but he doesn’t seem to be completely off the mark. As he is aiming at the Vuelta, he needs to be at a decent level.

 

With the late corner, tomorrow’s sprint suits him perfectly and he is not reliant on a strong lead-out. He just needs Geoffrey Soupe to drop him off in a good position and from there he usually always gets onto the right wheel. As no team is likely to do the perfect lead-out, Bouhanni has a significant advantage. If the roads are wet, things will be even more disorganized which should play into his favour. Finally, Bouhanni has a pretty aerodynamic sprinting style which is important in a headwind sprint. With the late corner, he can make use of his great acceleration skills and this makes him our favouriet to win the stage.

 

Andrea Guardini is clearly in excellent condition at the moment and with three stage wins in less than a week, it is hard not to mention him as one of the favourites. In today’s sprint, he was in a class of his own but as none of the big sprinters were up there, his win looked more impressive than it was.

 

The big surprise was not Guardini’s speed as it is a well-known fact that he is one of the fastest riders in the bunch. What raised our eyebrows was the fact that he managed the positioning so well. Usually, Guardini has handled the aspect very poorly and he has been boxed in way too often. Today, however, he was a constant presence near the front and swiftly jumped from wheel to wheel.

 

Guardini doesn’t have a very strong lead-out but that won’t necessarily be very important in tomorrow’s stage. It will all be about getting into the right position for the final turn and it seems that he now has the skills to handle this aspect. If he can repeat today’s splendid performance in the battle in the final kilometres, he has the speed to take another win.

 

Today things didn’t go well for André Greipel. His Lotto Belisol train hit the front way too early and so he had to fend for himself in the finale. This is not his strong point as he is usually not good at positioning. Instead, he is very reliant on his team to bring him to the front.

 

On paper, Lotto Belisol have a very strong lead-out train but it seems that Jurgen Roelandts is not firing on all cylinders. As it will be very hard for any team to control the finale, Greipel has a big disadvantage. He will probably have to position himself without too much assistance and the late corner doesn’t do him many favours. However, he is still the fastest riders in this field and so is a natural winner candidate.

 

On paper, Giant-Shimano don’t have the best lead-out in this race and when Tom Veelers got dropped in the finale, things didn’t look good for the Dutch team. Nonetheless, they managed to take control of the finale and if they hadn’t made a late decision to change tactics by sending Tom Dumoulin off in an attack, they may have given Luka Mezgec the perfect lead-out.

 

With Dumoulin off the front, Mezgec tried to slow down the peloton which caused him to lose position and so he never played a role in the final sprint. However, Giant-Shimano proved that they have the firepower to support their sprinter and if any team is strong enough to control this finale, it is probably the Dutchmen. Mezgec sprinted really well in Poland and is clearly in great form. If his team brings him through the final turn as the first sprinter, he could win this stage.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo and Danny Van Poppel are sharing sprinting duties for Trek in this race. Today Van Poppel got his chance and tomorrow the pre-race plan is to ride for Nizzolo. The Italian was agonizingly close to beating Bouhanni a couple of times in the Giro and is definitely one of the fastest riders in this field. The late corner should suit him well but his main strength should be his team support. Today Trek did really well in the finale and if Van Poppel hadn’t hit the deck, they could have taken control in the final kilometres. If they can avoid bad luck, today’s performance showed that they have the firepower to deliver Nizzolo to a win.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step did not have much luck in today’s stage as their lead-out failed completely. As Tom Boonen was out of position, Matteo Trentin ended up doing the sprint but there is no doubt that Boonen is their main man for the flat stages. Tomorrow’s sprint doesn’t suit a power sprinter like Boonen but he still had the advantage of having a formidable team at his side. If they manage to dominate the finale, Boonen has the speed to win – especially if the weather makes it a hard and stressful race.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Yesterday we already pointed to Jens Debusschere as a dark horse as Lotto Belisol had not committed themselves fully to Greipel. The team was clearly riding for the German champion but in the confusing sprint, Debusschere still managed to do his own sprint, crossing the line in fourth. Tomorrow he is again likely to play a support role but if things get messed up in a hectic finale, Debusschere could get a chance to sprint. He has been sprinting excellently lately and could take another win tomorrow.

 

Today Sacha Modolo crashed and his participation in tomorrow’s stage is in doubt. In any case, he will not be in contention for the sprint and so Lampre-Merida will be riding in the service of either Maximiliano Richeze or Davide Cimolai. Today the latter sprinted to third but on paper, the former should be the preferred sprinter. Richeze is great at positioning himself and he should excel in this kind of uncontrollable sprint.

 

Davide Appollonio didn’t manage to get into position for today’s sprint but he was riding greatly in the Tour de Pologne. He ended up mostly as a support rider for Yauheni Hutarovich but in this race he is the main sprinter. He is usually pretty good at positioning himself and after having overcome some health issues, he has been riding really well all season. It will be hard for him to win this kind of stage but as today’s stage proved surprises can occur in these hectic finishes and Appollonio has the skills to create one.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: Andrea Guardini, André Greipel

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Giacomo Nizzolo, Tom Boonen

Jokers: Jens Debusschere, Maximiliano Richeze, Davide Appollonio