After two hectic and stressful days that have mostly been about survival for the GC riders, it is time for the first big battle for the overall contenders. Traditionally the time trial has been the single most decisive stage of the 7-day race but having been shortened to just 9.6km, this year’s race against the clock may turn out to have a minor impact on the final GC.

 

The course

The GC riders were forced into action in today’s stage which opened some surprise time gaps but on the third day it is time to prove the cards for real. The time trial is always a key component in the Eneco Tour and usually plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of the race.

 

Due to a reduced distance, the importance may be a bit less than it has been in the past but it doesn’t mean that stage 3 is not one of the keys to win the race. This year the time trial comes a bit earlier than usual and it takes place in the Dutch city of Breda.

 

At only 9.6km it is shorter than usual which will definitely please the non-specialists. On the other hand, they will not be pleased with the lay-out of the course as this one is designed for the really powerful riders. It is a completely flat route that starts and finishes in the city centre and follows a mostly straight road to the southern outskirts of the city. Here the riders do a small loop which includes a few corners to break the monotony before they return to the mostly straight road that takes them back to the final left-hand turn and the 200m finishing straight.

 

 

The weather

The weather has had a major impact on the race in the first two stages as the rainy and windy conditions have caused numerous crashes. In the past, Eneco Tour time trials have been impacted even more by the weather as showers have given different riders different conditions on the technical courses that have often been used for TTs in the race.

 

Luckily, it seems that the riders should have mostly identical conditions for tomorrow’s stage. A partly cloudy day is forecasted and it should be a bit sunnier than it has been in the last few days. Furthermore, it should be a bit warmer as the temperature will reach a maximum of 20 degrees.

 

There is a risk of showers but most likely it will stay dry. Even though the stage is not too technical, wet roads on such a short course will have a dramatic impact and can turn the results on its head. There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind in the first half and mainly a tailwind on their way back to the finish in the centre of Breda.

 

The favourites

The Eneco Tour time trial has usually been the decisive stage but over the last few years, things have changed. Last year was the first time when the race was won by a non-specialist as the combination of two very hard stages in the Ardennes and Flemish Ardennes was enough for Zdenek Stybar to erase his deficits from the time trial. This year the stage should be even less important as its distance has been reduced to only 9.6km and it is now more of a long prologue than a stage where major time gaps can be made.

 

Nonetheless, the stage remains an important one as it puts everyone into their place before the hilly stages and makes it clear just how much time the classics riders need to take back on the specialists. It offers riders like Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas and Lars Boom the chance to gain time on defending champion Stybar and the likes of Sep Vanmarcke, Philippe Gilbert and Bauke Mollema and as this race is usually determined by seconds, it may still play a big role in determining the overall winner of the race. Finally, it is very important from a psychological viewpoint as it will be very important for the GC riders to get their campaign off to a good start.

 

This year’s course is a short one which is a disadvantage for the specialists who usually excel on longer courses. On the other hand, it is pretty non-technical and the long, straight roads definitely play into the hands of the powerful riders. It is only slightly longer than your typical prologue in which sprinters often have a chance but due to the lack of corners and the slightly longer distance, it will be hard for them to mix it up with the specialists. Even though the stage is short, this should be won by a real time triallist but the more explosive riders should be able to limit their losses on this kind of course.

 

The field is loaded with strong time triallists that should all be pretty equally matched and this should make it an open affair. Nonetheless, it is hard to look beyond Tom Dumoulin as the favourite to grab his second time trial win of the season.

 

Having progressed consistently since his professional debut, Dumoulin is now one of the very best time triallists in the world and in the last few months, it seems that only world champion Tony Martin has been stronger. Dumoulin was second behind the German in the Belgium Tour TT, in both Tour de Suisse TTs and in the Tour de France TT which proves that he really belongs to the TT elite that has usually been limited to just Martin, Bradley Wiggins and Fabian Cancellara. He may not yet be able to battle with Martin in the very long TTs but in the medium distance time trials he is pretty close.

 

Dumoulin would probably have preferred a longer distance but he is also pretty strong in short time trials. In fact, he first grew to fame when he finished third behind seasoned professionals in the 2011 Tour de l’Ain prologue and earlier this year he won the short Criterium International TT. The non-technical course should play to his strengths and he should be pretty pleased with the design of the route.

 

The main concern for Dumoulin is the massive amount of energy he spent to chase back in today’s stage and he should be less fresh than his rivals in tomorrow’s stage. On the other hand, today’s performance and his great solo attack in the finale of stage 1 prove that he is in excellent condition and he has admitted that he is feeling really good after the Tour de France. Among the specialists in this race, he is definitely one of the in-form riders and that combination of skills and form makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Fabian Cancellara may no longer be the time triallist he once was but when on form he is still excellent in the individual discipline. Last year he beat Martin in the Vuelta time trial and earlier this year he beat Martin, Wiggins and Dumoulin in the Tirreno TT.

 

Cancellara seems to no longer be as strong in the long time trials but in the short ones he is still very good. In fact, we regard him as the world’s best prologue rider as the short, technical courses are tailor-made for his explosiveness and great bike-handling skills. Hence, this short, flat course should suit him really well and even though he would have preferred a few more corners, he should be up there.

 

The main concern is his form. His big goal is the World which means that he cannot allow himself to be in too good condition yet. In this race he is not riding for GC as he knows that his form won’t allow him to do so. Instead, he will be building form for the Vuelta and maybe chase a stage win along the way. His best opportunity comes in tomorrow’s stage but he is definitely not in the same kind of form as Dumoulin. As the shorter course is in his favour, however, he is one of the top favourites.

 

While Cancellara’s form is a bit uncertain, the same definitely cannot be said for Alex Dowsett. The Brit has arrived in the Netherland straight from a very dominant win in the Commonwealth Games time trial where he easily beat renowned specialists like Rohan Dennis and Geraint Thomas. He has planned to take that great condition into this race which is one of his big goals of the season and he has been looking really strong in the first few days.

 

While Cancellara benefits from the shorter course, however, it is a clear disadvantage for Dowsett who has mostly excelled in the longer TTs. Nonetheless, he won the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe TT earlier this year to prove that he can also handle short, technical courses. This stage is not tailor-made for him but due to his great form, he is one of the big winner candidates.

 

This year Rohan Dennis has been the perennial runner-up in the time trials. The Australian has finished second no less than five times and has an additional third place but still no win. Most recently, he was second behind Dowsett in the Commonwealth Games time trial which proves that his form is not too bad. Furthermore, he has been doing pretty well in short TTs and he seems to excel in all kind of time trials.

 

He is mainly here to prepare for the Vuelta and so has taken no risks in the first two stages. Tomorrow, however, he should be going full gas and even though he is not yet in his best condition he is not far off and should be up there with the best.

 

Jesse Sergent has been riding really strongly this year and it seems that his road career is getting some momentum. In the Tour de Romandie TT he was second behind Chris Froome and Martin and he recently won a stage in the Tour of Austria before finishing second in the time trial. He is a past winner of the Eneco TT but back then he benefited massively from changing weather conditions. Nowadays, he is strong enough to win the stage on equal terms with the race favourites and as he is riding well at the moment, he is definitely one of the favourites.

 

Geraint Thomas has come into this race on the back of a solid Tour de France but towards the end of the three-week race he seemed to be pretty tired. However, he bounced back with a great performance in the Commonwealth Games where he won the road race and was third in the time trial. This proves that he is still in good condition and this race is a big goal for him. Earlier this year he did a great time trial in the Bayern Rundfahrt which proves that he has improved in the discipline. He may not be at the level of the very strongest but if he has maintained his condition, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Stephen Cummings is flying under the radar as he is not in the GC mix but the Brit is a very dangerous contender for this kind of flat time trial. Earlier this year he was second behind Taylor Phinney in Dubai and less than a week ago he was third behind Kristof Vandewalle and Adriano Malori in the Tour de Pologne. Cummings has developed into an excellent time triallist and even though he is still getting into form after his elbow fracture, his performance in Poland shows that he is already at a decent level. He usually excels on this kind of course and he is a very solid podium candidate.

 

Finally we will select our jokers. Some years ago Manuel Quinziato was a pretty good time triallist but for some reason he seemed to have forgotten how to time trial. This year he has found back to his previous level and even seems to be better than ever. He has already finished in the top 10 in three different time trials that were all held on flat courses like the one for tomorrow’s stage. This race is a big goal for him and he has been given a rare chance to ride for GC. He will be going full gas and we won’t be surprised if he ends up close to the podium.

 

Last year Andriy Grivko laid the foundations for his podium place in this race by doing a great time trial. This year the Ukrainian is again targeting the GC and he seems to be riding really well. He seems to have come well out of the Tour where he did a lot of work for Vincenzo Nibali and he claims to be feeling good. He is a very solid time triallist on this kind of course and even though he won’t win the stage he could finish in the top 5.

 

One of the big revelations in 2014 has been neo-pro Silvan Dillier who has been exceptionally strong all year. In the Tour de Wallonie, however, he was riding better than ever before and this made him a GC candidate for this race. Unfortunately, he crashed in stage 1 and so lost a bit of time but today he put his good condition on show. He is a very good time triallist and with his great condition, he may be able to finish in the top 10 in tomorrow’s stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Fabian Cancellara, Alex Dowsett

Outsiders: Rohan Dennis, Jesse Sergent, Stephen Cummings, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Manuel Quinziato, Andriy Grivko, Silvan Dillier