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Starting at 14.45 you can follow the flat, windy third stage of the Eneco Tour

Photo: Sirotti

RENEWI TOUR

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
14.08.2013 @ 14:45 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The sprinters have to make the most of their fewer-than-usual opportunities in this year's touger-than-usual race. Having missed out on their first chance in Ardooie on the first day, they will be eager to take their revenge in the penultimate flat stage today which is the first of three consecutive days on Dutch soil. Taking place in the windy Zeeland region and finishing with a couple of circuits along the coast, the stage does, however, pose constant dangers and if the wind is right, the stage can create bigger differences that any of the stages in the weekend. Starting at 14.45 you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

The race heads to the Netherlands for the third day of racing which should be another one for the sprinters. The stage starts in Oosterhout in the central part of the country to head in a western direction on a 187,3km route that finishes in the coastal city of Brouwersdam in the Zeeland province. There's not a single climb on the roads in one of the flattest parts of Europe but that doesn't mean that the stage won't be a dramatic one.

 

Having reached the coast, the riders first do a small circuit near the seafront before they hit the finishing circuit with 70km to go. They cross the finish line for the first time 4,6km further up the road to start the first of two laps on the 32,7km circuit. Those final laps all take place near the coast where the riders will travel along roads in all different directions and the wind could really come into play in this part of the country - just ask Cadel Evans who lost the maglia rosa in the area in the 2010 Giro d'Italia.

 

The wind may split up the field but it should still finish in some kind of sprint on the very exposed finishing straight which is located on a tongue in the North Sea. The final kilometre follows a slightly bending road on that tongue and it will be very important to be well-placed to avoid getting into the wind too early in the expected sprint.

 

The weather

The weather forecast for today will be studied with extra care. It should be another beautiful day for a bike race with a partly cloudy sky and 20-degree temperatures and the sun will make its presence felt more and more as the day goes on. Many riders will be happy and spectators reluctant to realize that there will only be a light wind from a western direction which means that the riders will have a head- or tailwind on most of the final circuit and a headwind in the early part of the stage when they travel towards the coast. However, there should be a direct crosswind on the very exposed tongue and we can expect to see an extremely nervous peloton with 66km and 33km to go when the riders head onto that tongue to make a U-turn at the end before heading all the way back to the mainland.

 

The favourites

A break will of course have no chance in today's stage as most teams are loaded with sprinters and there will be plenty of squads with a genuine interest in a bunch sprint. With Jurgen Roelandts losing time yesterday, Lotto-Belisol is purely focused on the sprints with Andre Greipel and Argos-Shimano is here mostly to ride for Marcel Kittel despite also keeping an eye on Tom Dumoulin's GC ambitions. Those two teams will share the brunt of the work and they should get assistance from a very confident race leader Arnaud Demare's FDJ team.

 

Furthermore, the peloton will be extremely nervous as soon as they hit the coast and the accelerations towards the turns that signal a change of direction will do a lot to reduce the time gaps. Crashes are almost guaranteed to happen in this very nervous stage but it is doubtful whether we will see any real separation among the GC contenders. Crosswind attacks are usually most efficient if the wind is either very strong or unexpected and none of those two conditions will be fulfilled today. Should any teams have success in splitting up the peloton, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Belkin are the two teams most likely to benefit.

 

Whether the peloton will split or not, the stage win should be decided in a sprint and as usual Marcel Kittel stands out as the major favourite. The long finishing straight and high-speed sprint should suit him well and as we said in our first preview, Argos-Shimano has brought the entire Tour sprint train Tom Dumoulin-John Degenkolb-Koen De Kort-Tom Veelers to support him.

 

The train has not been very successful until now though. In the first stage, it fell completely apart and left Kittel with no chance to sprint while the same happened yesterday when the team was riding for Degenkolb. At the same time, Kittel is clearly not at his best at the moment and was dropped surprisingly early in yesterday's stage. He is certainly not in the condition that allowed him to win four Tour stages.

 

On the other hand, his biggest rival Andre Greipel seems to have not slowed down at all since the French grand tour, taking a convincing sprint win behind Mark Renshaw on day one and doing a good job to finish 12th in yesterday's uphill sprint. When we pick Kittel as our favourite to win the stage, it is due to the fact that Greipel is left with limited team support. From his usual lead-out train, only Roelandts is present - Greg Henderson and Adam Hansen prepare for the Vuelta and Marcel Sieberg is out with a broken collarbone - and that leaves him with the train Jens Debusschere-Roelandts-Jonas Vangenechten. That formation isn't nearly as strong as his usual support team and Greipel himself is reluctant to take too many risks in the battle for position, often losing out as a consequence. We could very well see him finish far down the ranking but if he gets a clear run to the line, he has a great chance of winning the stage.

 

Apart from Kittel, Theo Bos has the best train in the race with Graeme Brown and Renshaw ready to delivering their Dutch sprinter perfectly. The team hit the front way too early in stage 1 and suddenly Renshaw found himself on the front earlier than planned. That was what ultimately gave him an unexpected win as Bos slowed down to avoid hitting the wind too early but the team will play it more wisely this time. Bos is one of the select few sprinters with the top speed to battle it out with Kittel and Greipel and if his team gets it right, he could celebrate the race's first stage in the Netherlands with a home win.

 

Speaking of top speed, Demare is another rider who has what it takes to win today. After yesterday's splendid performance, no one can deny that the Frenchman is at the peak of his condition and he will be eager to win while wearing the leader's jersey. He missed out on stage one when his trusted lead-out man Mickael Delage suffered a late puncture but that may not have been the only reason. Demare is usually strongest when the number of sprinters is limited as he is not very good at getting into position. His team is already one man down after the loss of a sick Murilo Fischer and will have to do some early chase work to defend the lead. That could leave him with limited support to overcome his positioning difficulties.

 

In our first preview, we claimed that Tyler Farrar had shown improving condition recently and his third place yesterday proved us right. When it comes to pure speed, the American has no chance against the likes of Greipel and Kittel but he may feature at the pointy end of the race by virtue of team support. Few riders can boast such a strong train as Farrar who has the able assistance from Ramunas Navardauskas, Alex Rasmussen, Raymond Kreder, Koldo Fernandez and Robert Hunter. That team may be strong enough to take control inside the final kilometre and if that happens, a Farrar win cannot be ruled out.

 

Another rider with good team support is Aidis Kruopis. On stage 1, it was actually his Orica-GreenEdge team that hit the front inside the final kilometre but the team ran out of manpower too early and Kruopis ended up in the wind far from the line. With Jens Keukeleire and Daryl Impey as the final two riders in the train, Kruopis can expected to be brought into a good position again and he proved in the Tour de Pologne that he is riding strongly these days.

 

Finally, we would once again point to Elia Viviani. The Italian is one of the fastest sprinters in the peloton and is riding strongly at the moment, having finished 5th on day one. Yesterday, he was poised to strike in the uphill finish as he was placed in a perfect position when Boy Van Poppel led the peloton on the lower slopes but the climb ended up being a little bit too much. He lacks the support crew that worked so perfectly in the Giro but he is still one of the select few riders with the required top speed to win in this strong field.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Andre Greipel, Theo Bos

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Tyler Farrar, Aidis Kruopis, Elia Viviani

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