The biggest sprinters have not had much luck in the Eneco Tour so far and now they only have one chance left. Tomorrow’s stage is the final flat one in the race but as more rain and wind is forecasted, it could again turn out to be an uncontrollable and unpredictable drama.

 

The course

The sprinters will get one final chance to go for glory before the race enters the hills when they tackle the first stage on Belgian soil. On the fourth day, the riders will travel over 183.3km from Koksijde to Ardooie but even though we are pretty close to the heartland of the Flemish classics, the riders won’t head into the Flemish Ardennes in what is another completely flat stage.

 

The riders will start in the coastal city of Koksijde which is well-known from the Driedaagse van de Panne and will kick things off by doing a lap of a flat 11.3km circuit of which 3.3km are neutralized. Then they will leave the coast by heading west before they turn around to reach the city of Diksmuide. From there they travel in a southerly direction until they reach Ieper and from there it is a northeasterly trek to the finishing city in Ardooie.

 

After 148.3km, the riders will cross the finish line for the first time and as is typical for the Eneco Tour, the stage ends with a few laps of a finishing circuit. This time the riders will do two laps of a 15.4km circuit that was also used for the opening stage of last year’s race which had the same starting and finishing cities and a completely identical finale. Like the rest of the stage, it is completely flat.

 

The circuit is not very technical but the finale is pretty tricky. With 1.4km to go, the riders do three sharp turns in quick succession before they hit the 1.1km finishing straight. Last year Belkin used those turns to open a gap behind their lead-out man Mark Renshaw and the Australian managed to hold off the sprinters all the way to the line.

 

Ardooie has hosted a stage finish every year since 2008. Tom Boonen was the first rider to win a bunch sprint while Tyler Farrar took the win one year later. In 2010, André Greipel was the fastest rider and he repeated the feat in 2011. In 2012, the city hosted the time trial which was won by Svein Tuft while Renshaw made his sneaky move to win last year’s stage in the Belgian city.

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had their first dry day but tomorrow it is back to the horrendous weather conditions that have dominated this race. The riders should get the stage off to a sunny start but as the day goes on, the risk of showers gets bigger and bigger and it is very unlikely that the riders will finish the stage on dry roads. The temperature will reach a maximum of 20 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part. A headwind section leads to a long stretch with a crosswind before the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the final section for to the finishing city. On the circuit there will mainly be a head- or a tailwind. The rider will have a headwind between the 10 and 4km to go marks before turning into a tailwind. The turns just before the flamme rouge leads to the finishing straight where there will be a crosswind from the right.

 

The favourites

As usual, the Eneco Tour field is loaded with sprinters but until now, most of them have not had a chance to do a real sprint. In the very confusing first stage, Andrea Guardini was the only major name who was in a position to sprint and the split denied the sprint stars their chance in stage 2.

 

Now they only have one chance left in tomorrow’s tricky stage to Ardooie. Most of them had probably hoped for pleasant weather conditions which should make things less nervous and more controllable than they have been in the first two sprint stages. However, the weather gods have not shown any mercy and it should be another stressful day.

 

The opening part of the stage should be pretty calm. However, the sprint teams failed to cooperate very well in stage 2 and the early break nearly made it to the finish. If Pavel Brutt had been joined by stronger riders, the move would probably have stayed away and that will have inspired more riders to go on the attack. However, it should not take too long for the early break to be established and it will be no surprise if either Laurens De Vreese or Kenneth Vanbilsen make it into the move as both have their eyes on the sprint jersey.

 

Belkin will assume their position on the front of the peloton to control the situation but the tactical game between the sprint teams will be interesting. In stage 1, FDJ and Lotto Belisol dutifully led the chase but in stage 2, things were a lot more complicated. Astana was left to do most of the work before FDJ started to contribute. Lotto didn’t do any work until very late in the stage and if it hadn’t been for the GC teams who started to ride hard in the crosswinds, the break would have made it to the finish.

 

Lotto Belisol have seen their GC campaign been dealt a heavy blow as Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert have both lost a bit of time and they cannot allow this opportunity to slip away. As Arnold Jeannesson did a disastrous time trial, FDJ will now be fully dedicated to the sprints and Astana may also be keen to give it another go. We expect the stage to be a bit more controlled and the break will probably be kept on a shorter leash.

 

There is a very long crosswind section in the first half of the race and there will be a cross-tailwind the final section to the finishing circuit. This should again make for some nervous and stressful racing and if the roads are wet, we should again see lots of crashes that could potentially split the peloton. Until now, however, the wind has not been strong enough to make any major splits and that should not be any different in tomorrow’s stage. Furthermore, the dangerous sections are all located pretty far from the finish.

 

On the finishing circuit, there will mainly be a head- or a tailwind and this means that the peloton is unlikely to split. As rain is forecasted, however, the bunch should be very nervous and like in stage 2, crashes could cause the splits. This time the circuit is not too technical though and so it should be a lot safer. This suggests that we may finally get our bunch sprint.

 

The sprint is characterized by the very long finishing straight which means that it is one for the really powerful sprinters. The tricky section with three turns just before the flamme rouge will be important but there will be time to get back into position. This is reflected in the list of winners which is mostly dominated by power sprinters and it is definitely no coincidence that André Greipel has won this sprint twice.

 

So far Greipel has not had much luck in this race but the German actually seems to be riding pretty well. In stage 1, he was let down by his team which hit the front too early and so he was left on his own in the finale. In stage 2, he was inattentive and out of position but he finished second behind Alexander Porsev in the bunch sprint behind the front group.

 

That sprint didn’t suit him very well as it was pretty technical and held on wet roads. Greipel rarely takes too many risks in the finale and so tomorrow’s safer circuit should suit him well. The long finishing straight is tailor-made for a power sprinter like him and his performance in the time trial proves that the condition is definitely there. On paper, he has a very strong team to support him and as Jurgen Roelandts seems to be getting back into condition after a bad start to the race, he has a formidable train at his side. The Lotto Belisol train may not have been firing on all cylinders recently but as none of their rivals have their best teams lined up for this race, they should be able to control the finale. This makes Greipel out favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival will again be Nacer Bouhanni. The Frenchman finished just behind Greipel in the sprint for the minor placings in yesterday’s stage and seems to be riding well. Tomorrow’s power sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly but the wet roads should be to his advantage. He will probably do the late turns better than any of his rivals and unlike Greipel, there is no chance that he will be out of position. On paper, only Greipel is faster than him in this race and if the German misses out, Bouhanni will be ready to strike.

 

Andrea Guardini is in the form of his life at the moment. He has always been one of the fastest sprinters but he has often lost out due to poor positioning. He seems to finally have overcome that disadvantage and in stage one he did everything right to jump from wheel to wheel before launching his sprint.

 

Tomorrow’s power sprint suits him really well as there aren’t many riders faster than him. With Borut Bozic as his final lead-out man, he has a very experienced support rider in the finale. If he gets a clear run to the line and is not too far back, he will be hard to beat.

 

In stage 1, Giant-Shimano proved that they have a formidable lead-out train. They may miss some of their best riders in this race but they still managed to control the finale. In the end they changed tactics by sending Tom Dumoulin off in an attack and that cost Luka Mezgec the chance to sprint. However, the team performance suggests that they have the power to put the Slovenian into the perfect position.

 

This sprint doesn’t suit Mezgec perfectly but in the Tour de Pologne he proved that he has come a long way in the really fast sprints. If his faster rivals are out of position and he is dropped off near the front, he has the speed to win.

 

Alexander Porsev has flown under the radar but the Russian champion is riding exceptionally well. In stage 1, he did the fastest sprint of everybody and in stage 2 he won the sprint in the peloton. This proves that he is currently one of the fastest riders in the race and he definitely has the speed to win. His main disadvantage is the lack of team support and he is often out of position for the sprint. He needs to overcome that weakness but if he finds himself in the right position, the in-form Russian can win the stage.

 

Trek haven’t decided whether they will be riding for Giacomo Nizzolo or Danny Van Poppel and won’t make a decision before late in the race. While the latter is not fast enough to win a sprint in this race, the former is one of the best sprinters. He is clearly not in his best condition and so there is a big chance that the team will be riding for Van Poppel. With Danilo Hondo, Fabian Cancellara, Eugenio Alafaci and the Van Poppel brothers, Trek have one of the best lead-outs in this race and if they decide to go for Nizzolo and manage to put him into position, he has the speed to win.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Two days ago we already pointed to Davide Appollonio and he paid back our confidence as he was one of the select sprinters to make it into the front group. He missed the split when Manuel Quinziato attacked in the finale but he still sprinted to a nice 7th place. Today he did the time trial of his life which indicates that he is in excellent condition. He handles the positioning aspect really well and this makes him a very likely top 10 finisher. It will be hard for him to win the stage but he definitely has the form to make the top 5.

 

With Sacha Modolo out of the race, Lampre-Merida will be riding for Maximilano Richeze who showed great condition when he made the split in stage 2. Like Appollonio, he missed out in the late selection but he is clearly riding well at the moment. He positions himself excellently and with Davide Cimolai, he has an important lead-out man. There are definitely faster sprinters but his positioning skills makes him a podium candidate.

 

When it’s a power sprint, one needs to mention Tom Boonen. Omega Pharma-Quick Step have a really strong team in this race and Boonen seems to be riding pretty well. Their main goal is to support Zdenek Stybar but Boonen is eager to make his mark too. He won’t take too many risks but with a long finishing straight it should be possible to be up there. The long finishing straight suits him perfectly and if Gert Steegmans and Matteo Trentin string things out in the finale, it will be hard to come around Boonen.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Alexander Porsev, Giacomo Nizzolo

Jokers: Davide Appollonio, Maximilano Richeze, Tom Boonen