After four days of flat racing, it is time for the triptych of mini classics that will end the Eneco Tour. It all kicks off with an exciting showdown in the Flemish Ardennes in a stage that can be described as a mini edition of the Tour of Flanders and ends with an uphill sprint on the famous Muur van Geraardsbergen.

 

The course

After a few nervous days, it is time for the GC riders to play their cards in one of the hardest and most important stages of the race. Naturally, the race has usually included a stage in the Flemish Ardennes but in 2012, the organizers decided to make it a lot harder by making it finish on the famous Muur van Geraardsbergen. When it was announced that the famous climb would no longer be part of the Tour of Flanders course, the city of Geraardsbergen made an agreement with the Eneco Tour which ensures that the stage race will include a stage on the wall in 2012, 2013 and 2014. In the first two years, the stage came at the final day but this year it comes before the riders head into the Ardennes.

 

At just 165.8km, the stage doesn’t have the length of a classic but apart from the distance, it has all the ingredients of one of the major Flemish one-day races. The riders will tackle no less than 14 of the famous hellingen in the Flemish Ardennes and as they go up some of them multiple times, 20 climbs are spread throughout the entire course.

 

The stage both starts and finishes in Geraardsbergen and the first part consists of a 114.6km circuit in the area west of the city. The climbing starts already after 14.7km when the riders tackle the Hurdumont (650m, 8%) and from there the climbs come in quick succession. The first half is the easiest as the only additional climbs are Mont (2000, 4.7%), Kanarieberg (1000m, 9%) and Kruisberg (1400m, 5%) but after a short, flat section, there is no longer room for recovery. The Edelareberg (1600, 4%), Leberg (900m, 4%), Berendries (100m, 7%), Valkenberg (800m, 6%), Tenbosse (400m, 7%) – where bonus seconds are on offer – and Eikenmolen (600m, 6%) come in quick succession and lead to the 106.1km mark where the riders enter the finishing circuit.

 

The riders now do the tricky final 8.5km for the first time. First they tackle the Denderoordberg (700m, 8%) before they descend down to the bottom of the Muur (1100m, 8.7%). The finish line comes 600m up the climb and signal the start of the final two laps of the 25.6km finishing circuit. It’s a very tough affair with no less than 4 climbs. Having descended from the Muur, the riders go straight up the famous Bosberg (1000m, 6%) which is another climber no longer featuring on the Ronde course and which offers bonus seconds after both passages. It is followed by the easiest section of the circuit before the riders hit the Onkerzelestraat (1500m, 3%). At the top, there’s still 11.2km to go, with the first part made up of a descent before the riders again reach the final section with the Denderoordberg and the Muur whose first 600m lead directly to the finish at the end of the second lap. The riders do two right-hand turns just after the flamme rouge before heading onto the climb where there’s a left-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

As said, the tricky finishing circuit has been used for the final stage of the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race and so it is now well-known by most of the riders. In the first edition, the peloton exploded to pieces on the Muur and in the end, Alessandro Ballan and Lars Boom emerged as the strongest. While the Italian took a rare victory on the famous Muur, the Dutchman gained enough time on then race leader Svein Tuft to win the race overall. Last year Zdenek Stybar took the jersey off Tom Dumoulin’s shoulders by finishing off a perfect display of team tactics. After Sylvain Chavanel had put the rivals under pressure, Stybar launched his own attack on the final lap to bridge the gap to lone escapee Ian Stannard. Accelerating hard from the bottom of the Muur, the Czech dropped his companion and soloed across the line to take both the stage and the overall victory.

 

The stage may be held in classics terrain and have a pretty tough finale but due to the shorter distance, it is of course not as selective as the Tour of Flanders. In 2013, 31 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner while in 2012 47 riders managed to reduce their time loss to less than 60 seconds.

 

 

 

The weather

The weather is an important factor in the Flemish classics and usually plays a crucial role in determining the toughness of the race. This year it seems that the mini Tour of Flanders in the Eneco Tour will be a “real” edition of De Ronde as the riders will have real spring weather for their big test on the hellingen in the Flemish Ardennes.

 

Rain is forecasted for the entire day which should make it a very tough and wet day in the saddle. The temperature will only reach a maximum of 15 degrees and so it will be pretty cold too.

 

It will be a little less windy than it has been in recent days as there will only be blowing a light wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the big circuit and then a tailwind. On the finishing circuit, they will first have a tailwind before turning into a headwind. The final part of the circuit is pretty twisty but importantly there will be tailwind up the Muur.

 

The favourites

For the GC riders, the first part of the race has been all about avoiding crashes and unexpected time losses while also staying attentive to grab any sudden opportunity. That’s what some of the riders did in stage 2 when the windy conditions and crashes suddenly allowed riders like Sep Vanmarcke, Lars Boom and Zdenek Stybar to gain a few seconds and score important bonus seconds. Otherwise, it has all been about staying safe and do a good time trial and as today’s stage shows the former aspect has been no easy task.

 

Tomorrow the nature of the race changes completely. From now on, it’s time to change from a defensive to an offensive mindset. Over the next three stages, the time differences can be made in what is a very interesting and appealing triptych of classics. With a mini edition of the Tour of Flanders, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Amstel Gold Race, the three stages can be said to be some kind of classics world championships.

 

The mini edition of De Ronde is first up and even though the stage doesn’t have the length of a classic, the combination of many hellingen and the bad weather should make it a tough and selective affair. However, it is also a well-known aspect of these races that the distance plays a big role in making the races hard and some of the Flemish classics can even be decided in bunch sprints. The weather will help make it a bit more selective but as history shows, one should not expect too big time gaps in this stage.

 

What makes the stage a bit different from the classics is the fact that the race ends on the Muur and that the climbs come a lot closer to the finish than they do in the major one-day races. The shorter distance means that it will be less of a race of attrition while the late climbs and the uphill finish mean that it is more of a race for the explosive riders. Even though the stage will definitely be dominated by riders that excel in the Flemish classics, this may produce a slightly different outcome than we would have seen in a major one-day race.

 

The finale has featured in stages of the last two editions of the race and so most riders know what to expect and what kind of racing usually unfolds. As in any classic, the weather will play a crucial role and team tactics will be equally important. The terrain is pretty difficult to control and several teams have lots of cards to play. They will definitely try to make use of their strength in numbers and so we can expect a pretty aggressive finale.

 

Last year the early break almost made it to the finish and in fact early escapee Ian Stannard was only passed by Zdenek Stybar. This means that many riders will be keen to join the early break and we can expect a very fast start to the race. Furthermore, the major teams will all be keen to have riders in the early break and so they will all be watching each other in what should be a hectic beginning.

 

In the end, none of them are likely to make it and the early break will probably be made up of riders from some of the smaller teams. This time, however, they will probably have a hard time holding off the peloton and we expect the GC riders to decide the stage.

 

First of all, there are bonus seconds up for grabs and a team like BMC cannot allow the early break to take those precious seconds away. The American team will probably do their fair share of the work as they have several cards to play in the finale. Belkin know that Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom may struggle a bit in the Ardennes stage on Saturday and they want to maximize their gains in this stage. Hence, Belkin will definitely also contribute to the pace-setting. Finally, this is probably Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s best chance to win a stage and they will be eager to bounce back after today’s unfortunate loss of Zdenek Stybar.

 

We expect those three teams to combine forces to bring back the early break and then it will all come down to a big showdown on the final circuits. Here we can expect a very aggressive race and we expect BMC to be particularly offensive. The American team has lots of cards to play and they will probably try to put their rivals under pressure. One of those late moves definitely has a chance to make it to the finish.

 

As the late attacks will mostly be launched by GC riders, the most likely outcome is that it will all come down to a final sprint from a select group up the Muur. A selection will probably already be made on the Denderoordberg and then the best riders will sprint it out on the most famous helling.

 

Yesterday we were pretty convinced that the in-form Zdenek Stybar would win this stage for the second year in a row but as the defending champion is now out of the race, the door is open for other riders to go for the win. With the uphill finish, explosiveness and punchy sprinting skills are very important and this means that the punchier guys will be the favourites.

 

In this year’s Flemish classics, Sep Vanmarcke proved that he is now at the level of the very best when it comes to riding up the hellingen in the Flemish Ardennes. The Belgian was one of the strongest in all the major classics and matched Fabian Cancellara pedal stroke for pedal stroke in this year’s Tour of Flanders. When he sprints up a cobbled climb, only the very best can hold onto his wheel and very few has the ability to pass him.

 

At the moment, Vanmarcke seems to be riding really well. He seemed to be tired at the end of the Tour but has recovered well. Usually not a strong time triallist, he did a very good TT and the way he sprinted forwards in the final of stage 2 proves that his form is excellent. The finale on the Muur is tailor-made for him and he is excellent at positioning himself. If it comes down to an uphill sprint, he will be hard to beat.

 

Our only concern is the fact that his arm was hit badly in the crash in today’s stage. A scan showed that he had suffered no fractures but this may impact his ability to sprint out of the saddle on the climbs. If he is not at 100%, he will ride in support of Lars Boom. Otherwise, he is out favourite to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival is Philippe Gilbert. The Belgian did a surprisingly poor time trial and now has some time to make up. His first chance comes in tomorrow’s stage and even though he is better suited to the stage in the Ardennes, this is definitely a good opportunity for him too.

 

The Eneco Tour has always been a big goal for Gilbert but he had a major setback when illness took him out of the Tour de Wallonie and the Clasica San Sebastian. This has definitely had a negative impact on his form but he did really well in the RideLondon Classic. However, his poor time trial has caused us to be a bit concerned and we are still not convinced that he is at 100%.

 

However, Gilbert is very hard to beat in an uphill sprint and even though he is not a real specialist on the cobbles, he is a former podium finisher in the Tour of Flanders. He definitely knows how to handle this terrain and he benefits from the uphill finish. If he has not been set too much back by his illness, this is a very good stage for him.

 

With Stybar out of the race, Omega Pharma-Quick Step will turn their attention to Tom Boonen. As one of the best riders for the cobbled classics, the Belgian is tailor-made for this stage. Boonen has the ability to blow the peloton to pieces and very few rider can keep up with him when he goes full gas on the hellingen. This will make him hard to beat in an uphill sprint on the Muur.

 

If Boonen had been at 100%, he would probably have been our big favourite but now we are a bit more cautious in our assessment. He seems to be at a decent level but he is clearly not at his best. That raises a lot of questions about his ability to handle this stage as most of his rivals are in peak condition. However, Boonen remains one of the best riders for these races and this makes him an obvious candidate.

 

Fabian Cancellara finds himself in a similar situation. On paper, the Swiss is one of the best in the Flemish classics but he is not yet in his best condition. He is mainly here to prepare for later objectives but he is likely to give it a go in tomorrow’s stage. His good time trial and his great work for Nizzolo in today’s stage proves that he is not too bad and he is very hard to match on the Flemish hellingen. Cancellara is pretty fast in a sprint too and this makes him a great outsider for this stage.

 

BMC have more cards to play and one of them is Greg Van Avermaet. The Belgian has always been a great rider for these races but this year he has stepped up his level a further notch. He did great in all the major one-day races and he has just finished the Tour where he rode better than ever. His good TT shows that he is still in great condition and he is very fast in an uphill sprint. There may be more explosive riders than him for this kind of finish but due to his great condition he is definitely a potential winner.

 

Lars Boom will probably lose his jersey in Saturday’s stage in the Ardennes but tomorrow’s stage suits him down to the ground. In fact he finished 2nd in this stage in 2012 and last year he took 3rd. He is obviously in great condition and will be eager to maximize his gains ahead of the most difficult stage. However, Boom has never really excelled in the Flemish classics and seems to be more suited to the Paris-Roubaix paves. There are definitely stronger riders for this kind of finish. On the other hand, his good form will bring him far and with his fast uphill sprint, he is definitely a winner candidate.

 

Geraint Thomas did a fantastic time trial which proves that he has come out of the Tour in good condition. He is one of the most versatile riders and will have options in both Friday’s and Saturday’s stages. This year he was one of the very best riders in the Flemish classics and so he should be well-suited to this stage. However, he may not be explosive enough to win in this finale and he will probably have to attack on the penultimate climb to claim the win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Jens Keukeleire is riding amazingly well at the moment. Originally he had no GC ambitions but as he has performed better than expected, he and his team have changed their plans. Now he hopes to finish high in the overall standings and he has also set his sights on tomorrow’s stage. He is very fast in an uphill sprint and is a strong rider for the Flemish classics which makes him a clear winner candidate.

 

Tom Dumoulin has never done the Flemish classics and this stage should be a bit too explosive for him. He will probably go into the stage with a defensive mindset but at the moment he seems to be very strong. This means that he cannot be ruled out in this kind of stage. To win, he will probably have to attack from a bit further out but if he gets a gap, he will be hard to catch.

 

The final BMC card for the GC is Manuel Quinziato and unlike Gilbert and Van Avermaet, he may not be too heavily marked. This will provide him with options in the finale. He has done well in the Flemish classics in the past and knows how to handle this terrain. As most teams will have limited resources in the finale, a late attack may pay off. Quinziato will never win an uphill sprint on the Muur but will try his hand with an offensive move. If tactics come into play, he may hold the peloton at bay.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sep Vanmarcke

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, Tom Boonen

Outsiders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avemaet, Lars Boom, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Jens Keukeleire, Tom Dumoulin, Manuel Quinziato