Until now the GC riders have mostly bided their time and tried to stay out of trouble during the opening flat stages of the Eneco Tour but now it is finally time for them to show their cards. They will get their first opportunity on the stage that is often the most decisive of the entire race: the time trial. With a technical first part and two climbs in the hilly Limburg province, it is not the usual course of the most powerful specialists and we could see a few surprise results as the GC riders battle it out in an attempt to maximize their gains or minimize their losses ahead of the hilly stages in the weekend. Starting at 14.45 you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The course
Key elements of the Eneco Tour course are always the time trial and the stage in the hilly Limburg province which is known from the Amstel Gold Race. This year those two stages have merged into one as the organizers have deviated from their usual script by designing a time trial course that is not completely flat. By using Limburg as the scene for the crucial race against the clock, they have out together a short 13,2km that has very few metres of lat roads.
From the start in Sittard-Geelen, the roads ascend slightly until the riders hit the bottom of the Windraak climb (0,7km, 4,5%) after 2,8km. At the top, the riders face a short stretch of almost flat roads followed by a short descent that leads to the bottom of the Beukenberg (0,6km, 4,5). The intermediate time will be taken on the top of that climb and from there just 5,6km remain. Those are all downhill on a gradual descent.
While climbing legs will certainly come into play, the course is also rather technical in the first part where multiple turns will break the rhythm and force the riders to get back up to speed. From the top of the final climb, the roads are almost completely straight and the riders should reach some high speeds on the downhill run towards the finish line.
The weather
Yesterday, the riders had a tough day in the rain but for the time trial summer will return to the Netherlands. A sunny day with 28-degree temperatures are expected and the riders will surely be able to feel the big difference between yesterday's cold conditions and today's heat.
Throughout the day, there will be a moderate wind blowing from a southwestern direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind on most of the course. The strength of the wind should be rather constant throughout the day and early starters like Bradley Wiggins should have almost the same conditions as the later starters like Taylor Phinney, Sylvain Chavanel and race leader Lars Boom, thus making it a fair contest between some of the best time trial specialists in the world.
The favourites
It's hard to look beyond Bradley Wiggins when it comes to the favourite in the time trial. Having entered the race without any GC ambitions at all, the former Tour de France champion has used the race merely as training and has spent most of the time at the back of the peloton before ultimately losing contact when the going gets too tough and too dangerous. He prepares himself for the world time trial championships, his major target in the second half of the season, and sees today's stage as an important test. Yesterday his team made it clear that Sir Bradley is very motivated for today's ride and he will go all out to win the stage.
He raced the recent Tour de Pologne in a similar fashion, spending some time working for his teammate Sergio Henao and saving strength for the final time trial. On that occasion, he crushed the opposition, putting almost a minute into Fabian Cancellara on a 37km course and if he is able to reproduce a similar performance, no one should get even close to the fabulous Brit. He doesn't mind the hilly course which is well-suited to his characteristics but he would undoubtedly have preferred a less technical opening part. In the Giro time trial, he lost plenty of time in the very technical first section before taking back most of it on the power section towards the end. It appears as though the only thing that can really prevent a Wiggins win today is a similar showing in the first, technical section.
His major rival is likely to be Taylor Phinney who has developed into one of the five best time triallists in the world, taking 4th at last year's Olympics and a narrow second in the worlds later that year. The American was far behind Wiggins in 3rd in the Polish time trial but should have a better chance on today's shorter course that suits him better. At the same time, the American appears to be in splendid condition at the moment, riding well on the climbs and having a clear focus on the GC. He crashed two days ago but despite some minor abrasions, he claims to be okay. He would certainly have preferred a more traditional, flat course but one should not forget that last year's worlds time trial was held in this same area and continued numerous similar climbs. He got close to Tony Martin on that occasion and hopes to get similarly close to Wiggins today, thus setting himself up for a high overall GC result.
Sylvain Chavanel has developed into an outstanding time triallist during the last two seasons following the back surgery that finally allowed him to fully express his potential . Since then he has rarely finished outside the top 10 in time trials and short, technical courses generally suit him well as he proved with his back-to-back wins in the Three Days of De Panne. He should not be too disadvantaged by the climbs either and hopes to improve on the performance that allowed him to finish 7th in the first Tour de France time trial. The major concern is his current level of condition. He may have ridden solidly in the first part of the race but hasn't set the world on fire and it was a surprise to see him finish behind the split on stage 2 which would have been unlikely to happen for Chavanel, had he been at his peak.
Speaking of peak condition, few will deny that Wilco Kelderman has rarely been stronger than he is right now. The young Dutchman won the recent time trial in the Tour of Denmark on a course of a similar length and thus set up his first big stage race win. Having already finished 4th at last year's Dauphiné time trial, he has proved that he can compete with the best on the highest level. He may have been unable to reproduce similar performances since but his recent Denmark showing suggests that he has gained strength by riding his first grand tour at the Giro. Among the GC riders, he is the one to benefit most from the hilly course which suits him down to the ground.
Usually, we would point to Lieuwe Westra as one of our biggest favourites for a stage like today's but the condition of the Dutchman is rather uncertain. He had to abandon the Tour on the Champs-Elysees due to illness and missed the Tour of Denmark a few weeks later. He hasn't appeared to be at his best in the first part of the race, losing time in the split on stage 2 and by virtue of the crash yesterday. On the other hand, he is one of the very best time triallists in the world and doesn't mind hilly courses as he proved at the Paris-Nice last year. A strong ride by the Dutch champions can certainly not be ruled out.
Lars Boom appears to be the strongest rider in the peloton right now, always riding attentively near the front and gaining time whenever he has had the opportunity. His rivals may look with disbelief on the GC when they realize that he has already gained 24 seconds on most of them during 4 mostly flat stages. Those seconds may be enough to hand him the overall win at the end of the week and his current level of form puts him in the mix for the win on today's stage as well. When we are reluctant to make him a stage favourite, it is mostly due to his recent performances in the races against the clock. Previously a stage winner in the Tour of Qatar and Paris-Nice, he has been far from his former level during the last couple of seasons and he will have to find back to his very best to contend for the win today.
Finally, we would point to our joker for today's stage. Sebastian Langeveld has received little attention in the race so far but the Dutchman appears to be in splendid condition. Having already taking a step up during the spring classics, we are curious to find out what he can do in a race in which he has already finished 3rd in the past. He is no bad time triallist and will find this year's hilly course to his liking. He won't win today but he could set himself well up for a high overall placing with a strong ride today.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Bradley Wiggins
Other winner candidates: Taylor Phinney, Sylvain Chavanel
Outsiders: Wilco Kelderman, Lieuwe Westra, Lars Boom, Tom Dumoulin
Joker: Sebastian Langeveld
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