Today’s stage created small time gaps between the overall contenders but the riders face a lot harder test tomorrow. The series of classics in the Eneco Tour continues with a small version of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege and while yesterday’s suited the cobbles specialists, tomorrow is a day for the explosive climbers.

 

The course

The Eneco Tour has always included a hard stage in the Ardennes but last year the organizers made it tougher than ever. In a tribute to Liege-Bastogne-Liege and its famous climb Cote de la Redoute, they designed a stage with a very tough finishing circuit that ended atop the famous ascent. The stage provided some of the most exciting and dramatic racing in the history of the race and so it is no wonder that the same circuit is back for the 2014 edition where it will serve as the scene for the finale of the queen stage.

 

The stage brings the riders over 173.9km from the Dutch city of Heerlen to the Belgian city of Aywaille halfway up the Cote de la Redoute and it is a day loaded with climbing. The riders will tackle 10 small hills but as some of them feature multiple times, the total number of ascents is 16. The hostilities kick off right from the start as the first part of the stage consists of a small circuit around Heerlen that includes the Bergseweg (2200m, 4%). In fact, the official start is given on the climb and it features again after just 11.6km of racing when the riders have done a full lap of the circuit and have started a long southerly journey towards the Liege-Bastogne-Liege terrain.

 

Along the way, they go up the Mamelisserweg (500m, 6%), Rugweg (1900m, 4.2%) and Schuttebergsweg (1800m 5.3%) before they cross the border after 35.7km of racing. The first climb on Belgian soil is the Cote de Hagelstein but then the easiest section of the course follows as there are no categorized climbs for the next 30km.

 

The finale kicks off at the 86.3km mark when the riders hit the Cote de Banneux (3500m, 5.6%) where there are bonus seconds on offer. After 99.9km of racing, they reach the finishing circuit and 800m further down the road, they hit the bottom of the Cote de la Redoute (1650m, 9.5%). The finish line is located 700m up the climb and after the first passage, the riders start their first of two laps of the 36.2km finishing circuit. There’s something to fight for right from the beginning as there are bonus seconds on offer at the top of the Redoute after the first two passages of the line.

 

The circuit is a very hilly affair with no less than 4 hard climbs. The first part is the easiest as there is a long descent from the top of the Redoute but in the second half, there is no room for recovery. The Cote de Fraiture (2600m, 5.2%), Cote de Chambralles (1550m, 9.5%) and Cote de Niaster (1800m, 7.7%) come in quick succession before the riders hit the bottom of the Cote de la Redoute again. The finale is very technical as the riders do no less than four turns in quick succession after the 1400m to go mark and before they hit the bottom of the final 700m climb that has an average gradient of 7.8%. There’s another turn 500m from the finish but from there it is straight up the steep road to the line until another left-hand turn less than 100m from the line.

 

When the circuit was first used 12 months ago, the attacking already started on the penultimate lap and split the group of favourites in two. While riders like Zdenek Stybar, Tom Dumoulin, Jan Bakelants, Andriy Grivko and Daryl Impey found themselves in the first group, race leader Sylvain Chavanel, Wilco Kelderman and defending champion Lars Boom were among the many riders to be caught in the second one. Dumoulin and the Astana riders did a massive job to distance Chavanel while Stybar got a free ride as his French teammate was behind. The group almost caught the early escape of David Lopez, Maciej Paterski and Angel Madrazo on the lower slopes of the Redoute where Stybar launched a furious sprint. He passed the latter two but didn’t manage to catch the former who took the stage win. Dumoulin finished fourth and took the overall lead while Chavanel lost 57 seconds.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were lucky to avoid the forecasted rain on today’s stage and they should be similarly fortunate when they tackle the steep climbs in the Ardennes. A cloudy day is expected and the temperature will reach a maximum of just 15 degrees. There is a risk of showers throughout the entire stage but the most likely scenario is that it will stay dry.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which is set to freshen and change direction. In the finale, there will blow a moderate breeze from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind in the long journey towards the finishing circuit where the win will come from several different directions. They will mainly have a headwind in the first, easy part before turning into a tailwind. On the final climb, there will first be a crosswind but the riders will be assisted by a tailwind in the final 500m.

 

The favourites

Today’ stage gave the first indication of the hierarchy in the Eneco Tour but as we had already predicted in yesterday’s preview, it all came down to an uphill sprint where only very small time differences could be made. In fact, no less than 31 riders finished within 6 seconds of stage winner Greg Van Avermaet and so the GC is still extremely close.

 

The final stage may have a pretty hilly profile but the climbs near Sittard-Geelen are not very tough. The only real chance to create bigger time differences come in tomorrow’s stage which is a really nasty affair.

 

It is a big mistake to compare tomorrow’s battle in the Ardennes too much with today’s mini Tour of Flanders. The riders that mix it up in both the Flemish and the Ardennes classics are very few and that is definitely no coincidence. There is a massive difference between the two kinds of races and they appeal to different riders. While today’s stage suited the heavier guys, tomorrow’s stage is much more of a climber’s race and we should see a slightly different group of riders mix it up near the front.

 

Today Tom Dumoulin took the leader’s jersey and his Giant-Shimano team faces a great test in tomorrow’s stage. Today they did really well as they had four riders in the front group until the penultimate climb but tomorrow’s stage should suit them less. In fact, only Dumoulin and Simon Geschke regularly feature in the Ardennes classics and strong teams like Belkin and BMC that have multiple cards to play, definitely have a chance to put Giant under pressure.

 

Like today, team tactics will play a crucial role tomorrow and so we will probably see a very big battle in the early part of the race. BMC and Belkin will do their utmost to have a rider in the early break and Giant-Shimano need to be on their toes. At the same time, the breakaway has a good chance in this kind of stage – just recall how David Lopez took the win 12 months ago – and this should make the racing even more aggressive.

 

Like today it will probably take a long time before the early break gets clear but as the first part of the stage is not too difficult, Giant-Shimano should be able to avoid BMC or Belkin joining the move. The Dutch team will be very pleased to see a breakaway take away the bonus seconds and so they will try to let a break with no dangerous riders slip away.

 

As opposed to this, BMC desperately need the bonifications and so the team may have to lend a hand to the chase. Furthermore, they will like to isolate Dumoulin as early as possible. Hence, their strategy will probably be two-pronged. They may lend Giant a hand in the first part to avoid the break getting too much of a gap and when we reach the finishing circuit, they will start to ride aggressively to exploit their strength in numbers as they have four riders who are reasonably close in the overall standings.

 

The favourites will probably kick into action the penultimate time up La Redoute and from there it will be a gradual elimination race. Dumoulin will try to ride defensively while BMC will try to make the race as hard as possible. If Dumoulin finds himself isolated, it will be hard to respond to all attacks and there is a big chance that a late move will pay off. If BMC miss the boat, however, they will probably try to bring it back together for an uphill sprint on La Redoute.

 

Today Dumoulin proved that he is the strongest rider in the race. The stage in the Flemish Ardennes should have been too explosive to him but he was actually the fastest rider in the sprint up the Muur. At the bottom, he was out of position but he still managed to almost bridge the gap to Van Avermaet, passing several riders in the process.

 

Tomorrow is a day for climbers and this should suit the big Dutchman a lot more. He has done well in the Ardennes classics and yesterday he was probably the strongest rider in this similar stage. It will be much less about explosiveness and more of a race of attrition and this plays into the hand of Dumoulin.

 

His main disadvantage is the fact that he is likely to be isolated in the finale and this will make it hard for him to respond to all attacks. On the other hand, he has an enormous engine as he proved in last year’s stage where he led the Stybar group for most of the final lap and still had enough left in the tank to do a great sprint on La Redoute. Since then he has become a lot stronger and we doubt that anyone will be able to drop him. He is pretty fast in an uphill sprint and if he hasn’t used too much energy in the early part, he will be our favourite to win a final battle on La Redoute.

 

His biggest rivals are definitely BMC who have lots of cards to play. While the stage should be a bit too hard for Manuel Quinziato, Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet both excel in this terrain. Today the latter proved that he has maintained his excellent Tour de France condition and he is clearly one of the strongest riders in this race.

 

In the Tour he climbed better than ever before and if he still has those climbing legs, he will be difficult to beat in tomorrow’s stage. As he is a bit down in the overall standings, he may not be as heavily marked as Gilbert and Quinziato and this could give him the chance to escape. Furthermore, he will not have to work as much as Dumoulin and this will give him an advantage in case of an uphill sprint.

 

This is the dream stage for Gilbert who is riding on his home roads and the former world champion is tailor-made for the uphill finish on La Redoute. However, his performances in the time trial and today’s stage prove that he has definitely been set back by his bout of illness and he is not as strong as he would have liked.

 

On the other hand, he remains one of the strongest riders in this terrain and he is clearly not too far off the mark of the best riders. In an uphill sprint on La Redoute, he is usually the strongest and he won’t have to do the same amount of work as Dumoulin. Furthermore, he can benefit from BMC’s strength in numbers and so a late move could pay off for him.

 

Today Jelle Vanendert was in unfamiliar terrain but he defended himself well in a kind of racing where he doesn’t have much experience. Tomorrow the Belgian will be riding in the Ardennes where he is one of the strongest riders. He showed great condition in the Clasica San Sebastian and he has made the months of August and September a big priority. He is pretty fast in an uphill sprint on La Redoute and he is definitely one of the best climbers in this race. As he lost a bit of time in the time trial, he is a bit behind in GC and this will give him options.

 

Vanendert’s teammate Tim Wellens also defended himself well in today’s stage and he will be much more familiar with tomorrow’s terrain. The young Belgian is a great climber for the short ascents in the Ardennes and it seems that he has become a lot stronger by doing the Giro. He was arguable the strongest rider in the Tour de Wallonie and he seems to have maintained that condition. He usually struggles a bit in the longer races but tomorrow’s distance should suit him well. He may not be very heavily marked and that should provide him with opportunities in the finale.

 

Arnold Jeannesson is one of the only pure climbers in this race and tomorrow’s stage is his big goal. He rode a great Tour de France in support of Thiabut Pinot and in the Clasica San Sebastian he showed that he has maintained that condition. As expected, he lost a lot of time in the time trial and this should give him some freedom in the finale. As he is one of the best climbers in this race, he could be the one who launches the right move in the end.

 

Geraint Thomas is the most versatile rider in this bunch and the Welshman has proved that he is in great condition. Today he blew up in the finale as he tried to follow Van Avermaet who is a bit more explosive. Tomorrow’s longer climbs should suit him a lot better and he has done great in this kind of terrain in the past. If he gets a gap in the finale, his TT skills will take him far.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Ben Gastauer delivered a breakthrough performance in the Tour de France where he was instrumental in the teams classification win for Ag2r and finished in the 20 in several mountain stages. Today he did really well in a stage that didn’t suit him and this proves that he is still riding well. Tomorrow should be more about climbing and this makes him an obvious winner candidate. Like Jeannesson, he has lost a bit of time and so he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Today Matti Breschel did really well and the Dane seems to be getting back to the level that saw him excel in the classics. Tomorrow’s stage should be a bit too hard for him and he will have to race smartly to take the win. However, he lost a lot of time in the time trial and this could pay off if he makes a move in the finale.

 

It was a bit of a surprise to see that Movistar lined up Dayer Quintana for this race as it doesn’t suit him at all. However, the Colombian did really well in today’s stage which proves that he is in great condition. Tomorrow’s stage should be a lot harder and suit a pure climber like him. He is out of the GC battle and won’t be heavily marked. He will have lots of freedom and can win this stage with a late attack or from a long-distance breakaway.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Arnold Jeannnesson, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Ben Gastauer, Matti Breschel, Dayer Quintana