The Eneco Tour brings its series of small classics to an end with a very hilly stage in the Limburg province that looks very much like a small Amstel Gold Race. The course is littered with climbs but as the final ones are neither steep nor long, a strong team should be able to control the race which is likely to be won by either a breakaway or from a reduced bunch sprint.

 

The course

As usual, the organizers have included a hard final stage which means that all is still to play for on the last day of the race. The race has traditionally had a stage in the Amstel Gold Race terrain in the Dutch Limburg province but very often it has made little difference. The climbing has usually been located too early to be used for attacks but this year things may have changed. The finale of stage 7 is constantly up or down and even though the climbs are not as tough as they were in stage 6 and the most likely outcome is a sprint from a reduced peloton, there is a chance that a third consecutive classic could create some differences on the final day of the race.

 

At 183.4km, the stage starts in the Belgian city of Riemst and finishes in the Dutch city of Sittard-Geelen and it include 17 climbs. As many of them feature multiple times, the total number of ascents is no less than 22. The start of the stage is the easiest as the riders first do a lap of a circuit around Riemst that only includes the Muizenberg (650m, 6.6%).

 

From there, the riders travel in a westerly direction and go up the Cote Halembaye (1100m, 6.6%) just before they cross the border after 34.2km of racing. That marks the start of the climbing hostilities as the riders now tackle the Heiweg (1400m, 4.0%), Bergenhuizen (500m, 8.0%), Hoogcruts (700m, 5.0%), Loorberg (1400m, 5.3%), Camerig (1300m, 5.4%), Schuttebergsweg (1200m, 5.3%), Mamelisserweg (600m, 5.8%), Gulperberg (450m, 9.3%), Wittemerweg (800m, 4.9%), Eyserbosweg (1050m, 8.2%), Oude Huls (600m, 7.5%), Schanternelsweg (1000m, 6.0%) and Fromberg (1100m, 5.9%) in quick succession with very little room for recovery in between. Many of those climbs are well-known by most of the riders from the Amstel Gold Race. Along the way they have turned to the north and are now heading towards the finish in Sittard-Geelen.

 

After the Fromberg, there is a short, flatter section that precedes the finale which kicks off with the Bergstraat (1000m, 7.0%) with 57.9km to go. Just after the top, the riders reach the finishing circuit and 1.2km later they contest the first intermediate sprint. Now they tackle the Windraak (700m, 4.5%) before they cross the finish line for the first time.

 

The final part of the stage is made up of two laps of a 24.2km finishing circuit that includes six climbs in quick succession. The Kollenberg (400m, 5.0%) comes 21.6km from the finish and there is unnamed ascent (300m, 6.5%) 2.7km further up the road. With 17.9km to go, the riders tackle the Sittarderweg (800m, 4.0%) while the Schatsberg (800m, 5.0%) comes 14.2km from the finish. There’s another unnamed climb (350m, 8.0%) 8.7km from the line while the Windraak is the final challenge with just 4.4km to go. On both laps, there are bonus seconds on offer at the intermediate sprint 7km from the finish.

 

After the Windraak, there is a short descent and then the final part of the stage is flat. It’s pretty technical as the riders do four turns between the 2.1km and 1.5km to go marks. Then a straight road leads to the final left-hand turn that comes just 400m from the line.

 

Sittard-Geelen is the only city to have hosted a stage finish in every edition of the race. In 2005, Simone Cadamuro won a bunch sprint while Manuel Quinziato narrowly held off the sprinters one year later. In 2007, Sebastien Rosseler took a time trial win and Jose Ivan Gutierrez won the opening prologue in 2008. In 2009, Lars Bak held off a select group after a hard day in the Limburg province while Jack Bobridge was the strongest from a breakaway in 2010. In 2011, Edvald Boasson Hagen won a bunch sprint while Orica-GreenEDGE won the only team time trial in the history of the race in 2012. Last year the city hosted the time trial which was on by Sylvain Chavanel.

 

The weather

The weather hasn’t changed much throughout this race and tomorrow should be pretty similar to what it has been so far. It will be a cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 16 degrees. There is a chance that a shower will make the roads wet but the most likely scenario is that it will stay dry.

 

Compared to the last few days, it should be a lot windier as there will be a strong wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross tailwind and then a crosswind in the final section to the finishing circuit. Here they will mainly have a cross-headwind in the first part before turning into a cross-tailwind for the final section back to the finish. In the final 5km, there will mainly be a cross-tailwind before the riders turn into a crosswind for the final 400m.

 

 

 

The favourites

In the last two years, the GC has been shaken up dramatically in the final stage and there is no doubt that the organizers have designed this stage with the hope things can change right until the end of the race. In 2012 and 2013, however, the final stage was the mini Tour of Flanders with the finish of the Muur in Geraardsbergen and that stage is significantly harder than the one that’s on offer tomorrow.

 

Looking at the profile, the stage seems to be extremely hilly and selective as it is loaded with categorized climbs. A closer look at the details of the climbs, however, suggests that the stage may look harder than it actually is. Even though the riders will race through the Amstel Gold Race heartland, they will skip some of the hardest climbs and among the usual key points in the Dutch classic, only the Eyserbosweg features on the course. That climb, however, comes at the halfway point and is unlikely to make much of a difference.

 

The hardest climbs will be tackled during the journey from the start to the finish but there is a long mostly flat stretch from the Fromberg to the Bergstraat. The climbs on the finishing circuit are significantly easier than the ascents at the midpoint as none of them are very long or very steep.

 

Three factors make this stage different from the Amstel Gold Race. First of all, the late climbs are all a lot easier than the ones that feature in the final of the Dutch classic. Secondly, there is a longer distance from the top of the final climb. Finally, the distance is significantly shorter which will have a huge impact on the race. The Amstel Gold Race is a tough race more because of its length than its profile and this stage should not be the same kind of race of attrition.

 

However, it will still be a very hard and stressful day. The Amstel Gold Race is famously known for its many narrow, twisting roads and the peloton won’t be spared any of them in tomorrow’s stage. Knowledge of the course and positioning will be extremely important and crashes are bound to happen. Even if the climbs are not hard enough to make a selection among the GC contenders, splits could be caused by crashes – just recall what happened in stage 2 – and so there is a chance that the GC can change on the final day.

 

The riders near the top of the GC are all strong climbers and we doubt that this terrain is hard enough to separate the GC contenders from each other. It seems that the only things that can turn things around on the final day are team tactics, wind or crashes. History shows that the strongest sprinters – guys like Michael Matthews and Ben Swift – can play a role in the Amstel Gold Race and on this easier course, more of the fast guys should have a chance.

 

However, several GC teams will still be keen to try to make things happen on the final day and this will force them to make this race hard already in the toughest zone at the midpoint. They may send riders up the road in an attempt to make things tough for the overall leader and this should set the scene for some pretty aggressive racing.

 

This is one of those stages that have no obvious favourite and this makes it unclear who’s going to lead the chase. Furthermore, this terrain is very hard to control and it takes a pretty strong team to reel a good breakaway back in. Hence, the early break definitely has a chance and so we can expect a very fast and aggressive start to the race.

 

Much will depend on the size and the composition of the group that gets clear. If it is a strong one, there is a chance that the best of them will prevail. On the other hand, lots of teams have an interest in making this race come down to a sprint and several GC riders want the bonus seconds to come into play. Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky may both have set their sights on a sprint finish and should do some work to control the race. Hence, we put our money on the break to be caught somewhere on the finishing circuit.

 

We are likely to see lots of attacks in the finale and if a group with all the major teams gets clear, they may make it to the finish. However, the climbs are so easy that it will be hard to make a selection and so the mostly likely outcome is a sprint from a reduced peloton. In this terrain, the difference will be made in the rear end of the peloton, not in the front.

 

With a sprint the most likely outcome, the favourites are fast riders that can handle this kind of terrain. The peloton is loaded with that kind of riders and they are all pretty equally matched which should make it a very open race.

 

One rider that fits the bill perfectly is Matteo Trentin. The Italian has his name written all over this stage which is simply tailor-made for him. As he proved several times in the Tour de France, he is one of the fastest riders in the world when it comes to a sprint at the end of a hard, selective day and he should be able to handle these climbs.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step were dealth a heavy blow when Stybar was forced to abandon the race but as this is a home event, they still want to perform well. They were a bit out of their terrain in today’s stage in the Ardennes but tomorrow’s easier stage should suit them a lot better. They know that they have one of the fastest riders for this kind of stage and there is a big chance that they will contribute to the pace-setting.

 

Trentin showed great form in stage 5 where he almost held off the peloton. This proves that he has not been set too far back by his crash in stage 2. It seems that he still has the form he had in the Tour de France where he overcame much harder climbs and this will make him hard to beat in this kind of stage.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is coming back from injury and is not in his best condition yet. Hits time trials in the Tour de Pologne and the Eneco Tour were both pretty poor and it is evident that he is still far from 100%. However, he has been climbing decently and even though he has been unable to hold onto the best in the two hardest stages of the race, tomorrow’s easier stage should suit him well. These short climbs should definitely not be enough to take him out of contention

 

Boasson Hagen is definitely no real sprinter and he has a tough time mixing it up with the really fast guys in the bunch sprint. At the end of a hard day, however, he is pretty fast and if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, he should be one of the fastest. Furthermore, he has an excellent team to support him as he is likely to have both Geraint Thomas and Salvatore Puccio at his side in the finale. They both know how to do a solid lead-out for sprinter and that will be important in what could be a hectic and uncontrollable bunch sprint.

 

Giant-Shimano will mostly be concerned with the GC but they have several riders that can do well in this kind of stage. One of them is Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg who seems to be riding really well and should have no trouble getting over these climbs. He may have to work for Dumoulin during the stage and this could take him out of contention. If he is still fresh in the finale, however, he has the speed to win this kind of sprint.

 

Movistar are loaded with riders that can sprint at the end of a hard race. One of them is Francisco Ventoso who seems to be riding really well at the moment. The Spaniard looked strong in stage 5 and tomorrow’s stage should suit him even better.

 

He will share sprinting duties with Jose Joaquin Rojas but the pair usually do their own separate sprints. Unlike Rojas who rarely wins anything, Ventoso is much stronger when it comes to finishing off his work with a win. Movistar have several in-form riders that should be there in the finale and that kind of team support could pay off in what will be an uncontrollable sprint.

 

BMC have several fast riders that can win this stage. One of their best cards is Silvan Dillier who is probably the fastest rider on their roster. The young Swiss has had an amazing first professional season and at the moment he seems to be in the form of his life. In the Tour de Wallonie and this race he has been climbing really well and it is hard to imagine that he won’t be there at the finish. Dillier has tried his hands in the a few bunch sprints this year and is still learning the trade but in a smaller group he will have a bigger chance. If his team decides to back him, he has a very good chance.

 

Another option for BMC is of course Philippe Gilbert. The former world champion knows how to win in the Limburg province and even though this stage is too easy to suit him perfectly, he definitely has a chance. In all likelihood, there will be better sprinters than him in case of a sprint finish but if the race turns out to be really hard, he definitely has a chance. He will be eager to score a few bonus seconds and this makes it more likely that he will be chosen as the BMC sprinter.

 

Matti Breschel seems to be in decent condition and this stage is tailor-made for him. The climbs are not too hard for him and he has a very fast sprint to finish it off. He may not be as strong as he once was but this terrain is definitely manageable for him. There may be faster riders in the bunch that sprints for the win but he definitely has an outside chance.

 

Sep Vanmarcke may be mostly known as a classics rider but he is a decent sprinter as well. He excels in this terrain and will benefit from a hard race that takes out most of the really fast riders. He grew to fame when he beat Tom Boonen in a sprint to win the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad which proves that he is extremely fast at the end of a hard race. The Belgian is clearly riding well at the moment and he provides Belkin with a great candidate.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas is an excellent climber who even finished in the top 30 in some mountain stages of the Tour de France. This terrain is definitely not too hard for him and he should be one of the fastest riders if it comes down to a sprint finish. For some reason, however, the Movistar sprinter rarely wins. Even in sprints where he is the fastest rider, he seems to always fail. He needs to overcome that problem to win more frequently and tomorrow could be a good day to start.

 

Fabian Cancellara has several cards to play in this stage that suits him pretty well. He can save himself for a sprint finish where he will have a solid chance as he proved when he finished second in Milan-Sanremo. However, he may also launch a late attack and the flat run-in to the finish is tailor-made for him. If the race has been very hard, the finale will be difficult to control and if Cancellara gets a gap, everyone knows that he is very hard to catch.

 

A very interesting rider for this stage is Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian is known as a sprinter but he climbs much better than most of the fast finishers. He used those skills to win numerous stages in the Volta a Catalunya earlier this year and if he has turned on his best climbing legs, he may be able to survive this stage.

 

Mezgec has been sprinting solidly in the Tour de Pologne while he has not had too much luck in this race. However, he seems to be in pretty good condition but it is still a bit uncertain how well he is climbing. If this stage is made really tough, it may be too hard for him but on paper they should be manageable. If he is there at the finish, he will have Tom Dumoulin, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg and Simon Geschke to lead him out and then he will be a danger man.

 

Lotto Belisol have lost André Greipel but they still have some fast men at their disposal. One of them is Jurgen Roelandts. The Belgian is not at 100% but if this stage is not made too hard, he should be there at the finish. He is no longer as fast as he was in the beginning of his career but he still has a decent sprint.

 

Marco Marcato is clearly riding really well at the moment and this stage seems to be tailor-made for him. The Italian is pretty fast and has often mixed it up in bunch sprints. There are definitely faster riders than him and he doesn’t have the strongest team to support him. However, he has a few cards to play as he can both launch a late attack or wait for the sprint.

 

Filippo Pozzato suddenly showed some form in stage 5 when he finished in the top 10 and this stage should be a good one for him. Today was way too hard for him but tomorrow’s climbs should be manageable. The Italian is clearly not at 100% and if the race turns out to be hard, it could be a bit too tough for him. As he proved in last year’s GP Plouay, however, he can win this kind of reduced bunch sprints.

 

Davide Appollonio seems to be riding excellently well at the moment. He climbed solidly in Poland and his time trial performance proves that he is close to 100%. Among the sprinters, he is definitely one of the best climbers. There are faster riders than him but they could all be dropped before it comes down to the final sprint. If he makes the selection, he has the speed to win.

 

CylingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Matteo Trentin

Other winner candidates: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Francisco Ventoso

Outsiders: Reinardt Van Rensburg, Silvan Dillier, Borut Bozic, Philippe Gilbert, Matteo Trentin, Matti Breschel, Sep Vanmarcke, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Fabian Cancellara

Jokers: Luka Mezgec, Jurgen Roelandts, Filippo Pozzato, Marco Marcato, Davide Appollonio