He may have won last year but Simon Gerrans says he is “realistic” and does not consider himself to be a favourite for the first classic of the season, the Milan-San Remo on Sunday.

Last year the Orica-GreenEdge captain delivered a glittering ride by out-sprinting Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack-Leopard) and Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) in an exhilarating, premeditated escape that held off the feverishly chasing peloton.

That scenario, Gerrans readily concedes, will be difficult to duplicate.

“Being the defending champion does not make me the favourite,” Gerrans told VeloNews.com “I am pretty realistic. I don’t know what the stats are, but I think it’s 1-in-10 that a break goes away and holds off the bunch to win. Last year, I was in the right place, with the right guys, with great form. The chances of that happening again are pretty slim.”

Health issues

Some minor health problems that might throw a spanner in the works during the final and decisive hour of racing have plagued Gerrans’ approach to this year’s “classicissima.”

In 2012, he benefitted from a perfect early season, taking the Australian national road race title, the overall at the Santos Tour Down Under, and second in a stage at Paris-Nice.

In contrast, this year allergies caused a setback at the Tour Down Under preventing him from challenging for the GC, even though he won the stage at Old Willunga Hill.

Last week, he abandoned Paris-Nice when early signs of an impending cold began to appear. Rather than risk getting seriously ill by pushing through Gerrans withdrew before the start of stage 5 and returned to his European home base in Monaco to recuperate.

Gerrans said being the defending champion won’t alter the team’s approach other than him likely being watched more intensely by his main rivals.

“We’ll go like we did last year, with (2011 winner) Matt Goss as our main man and I will have free rein in the final to have a go myself,” he said. “I know I will be watched more closely. There’s a pretty slim chance of a breakaway working, but I gotta throw my hat in the ring. I am pretty realistic about my real chances of going back to back.”

German sprint ace Erik Zabel was the last rider to win back to back titles at Milan-San Remo in 2000 and 2001.