After the rest day, the riders mostly had an easy ride today but tomorrow they can expect to get their legs tested in a very long 249km stage. With a difficult climb in the finale, the route has breakaway written all over it and we can expect a true war in the first part of the race as most riders want to be part of the escape. Meanwhile, the GC riders hope that things will settle down as soon as possible as they have their eye firmly fixed on Thursday's time trial.

 

The course

Until now, the escapees have had limited opportunities but the 11th stage of the race seems to be destined to be one for a successful breakaway. As already said, the Giro organizers always include some very long stages in their race and at 249km, this was set to be the longest of this year's edition of the Italian grand tour until an unexpected alteration of stage 6 pushed it down into second on the list. The riders will continue their westerly run as they head from Collecchio to Savona on the Adriatic coast, passing some classical Milan-Sanremo terrain along the way.

 

Starting in Collecchio, the route climbs along the Taro River valley, heading for Borgo and reaching the Passo Cento Croci climb (category 2, 13.5km, 4.6%, max. 10%). A difficult descent leads to Riviera di Levante, namely to Sestri Levante after which the feed zone is located. The stage course takes the Aurelia road through Chiavari, Rapallo, Quarto dei Mille, Genoa (the city will be crossed along the elevated road), Varazze (intermediate sprint), up to Savona (after Voltri, the stage course follows the Milano-Sanremo route). In Savona, the course brushes by the finish and then takes a sort of circuit (approx. 45 km).

 

The circuit hits the Sanctuary of N. S. della Misericordia, at the foot of the steep Naso di Gatto climb (category 2, 7.2km, 8.0%, max. 13%). It is a rather regular affair with a constant gradient that leaves little room for recovery. From the top of the final climb 28.2km remain. It is followed by a stretch of apparently flat ground (sometimes up- and sometimes downhill), with a few challenging sectors before the fast descent along Colle di Cadibona, leading to the city centre, which will be crossed twice, along a fast, non-technical  track, with only the penultimate kilometre containing a few turns. The home stretch is 750m long,on 7.5m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

The weather

For now, the riders have left the bad weather behind them and they can expect near-perfect conditions for tomorrow's stage. It will be a beautiful sunny day and the temperature at the finish in Savona is expected to reach a maximum of 20 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from an southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part before turning into a cross-tailwind when they reach the coast. In the finale, there will be a tailwind on the climb and a headwind on the descent back to Savona. The riders will turn into a cross-tailwind when they pass the flamme rouge.

 

The favourites

Today's stage was destined to end in a bunch sprint and most riders chose to save their energy for tomorrow's stage. They had a good reason to do so as stage 11 is probably the most obvious stage for a breakaway of the entire race.

 

The final climb is a really tough affair and if it hadn't been the long distance back to the finish, it would have been hard enough to be used as a battleground for the race favourites. With a mostly non-technical descent back to the finish, however, it will be very hard to maintain any kind of advantage obtained on the climb. Furthermore, the GC riders will all be keen to save their energy for Thursday's much more decisive time trial instead of risking a lot in a move that is unlikely to pay off.

 

It is very hard to see that any team should have any interest in reeling in the early breakaway. If things were together at the bottom of the final climb, the most likely outcome would be a sprint finish for a very decimated group of favourites. In that case, riders like Diego Ulissi and Daniel Moreno - or Mauro Finetto and Enrico Battaglin if they have made the selection - would be the favourites but the latter two will be uncertain whether they make it over the climb and the former two will be uncertain about their ability to win the sprint. Their teams are most likely to play the breakaway card and only if they miss out, may they try to bring things back together.

 

As it was the case two days ago, we can expect a very fast start to the stage and it will probably take a long time for the break to be established. Stage 9 was a bit strange as the first part was completely flat, meaning that many riders could join the break but only very few win in that kind of finale. Hence, the break contained a lot of riders that never had a chance to win the stage. Tomorrow's stage is a bit of the same as the opening kilometres are rather easy but only the strongest climbers will be able to finish it off. There is a climb after 46km and there is a chance that the break won't have been established at that point. If that's the case, it is likely to get clear on the ascent, meaning that only the best riders will be strong enough to get into the move. This makes it a bit easier to predict which riders will eventually make it and the break should contain more riders that can actually win in this kind of finish.

 

The only thing that can realistically prevent the break from holding onto their advantage is if a number of key teams that have made this stage a target, miss out. If that's the case, one often sees that they try to organize a chase but due to the length of the stage that is less likely to happen in tomorrow's stage. When the break takes off, BMC will probably control the stage all the way to the bottom of the final climb.

 

On the ascent itself, BMC, Tinkoff-Saxo, Ag2r or Movistar may set a steady, pretty hard pace to keep things under control but we are unlikely to see any attacks from the main contenders. Of course there will be a rather big selection but it will probably BMC that leads a select group of favourites across the line several minutes behind the escapees that have battled it out for the stage win.

 

To find favourites for this stage, one needs to pick a rider that is strong enough to join the early move and a great climber that can finish it off in this kind of hard stage. As the finale is flat, it is certainly no disadvantage to have a fast sprint as no one can expect to maintain a gap all the way from the top of the final climb.

 

Team Sky had hoped to both chase stage victories and contest the general classification with either Dario Cataldo, Sebastian Henao or Kanstantsin Siutsou. The former two have already fallen out of contention while the latter has lost quite a bit of time. This means that their main focus is on stage victories and they will have pinpointed tomorrow's stage as one of their targets.

 

The team has several cards to play but the stage seems to suit Cataldo perfectly. The Italian looked really strong in the first week but had a very unfortunate crash on stage six. He paid the price in the first mountain stage, losing more than 20 minutes, and has now completely shelved his GC ambitions.

 

This means that he is free to chase stage victories and last Sunday he showed how strong he is. He rode with the main favourites all the way up the climb and was one of the first to respond to Rigoberto Uran's attack. He launched a gutsy move in the finale and was only caught less than 100m from the line.

 

Cataldo has all the skills to excel in this kind of stage. He is a strong rouleur who should be able to get into the early move and he will be very hard to drop on the final climb. Finally, he is a rather fast sprinter who would have a great chance to win if he arrives at the finish with a few riders. That makes him a perfect fit to this kind of stage and he is our pick for tomorrow.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen wants to win a stage in this race and it would be unwise to bet against the Norwegian reaching his objective. In the 2011 Tour de France, he proved that he is an excellent stage hunter in the grand tours when he won two stages, one of them on a very hard day in the Alps. Tomorrow's stage has his name written all over it.

 

Boasson Hagen was already in the break on the stage to Montecopiolo and he did extremely well to mix it up with pure climbers on the very steep Carpegna climb. Tomorrow's final ascent is less steep and suits him much better. He may not be able to follow the best on the climb but he won't be far behind at the top. As an excellent descender and a powerful riders on the flats, he will have a very good chance of getting back in contention and no one will beat him in a final sprint.

 

Fabio Duarte was impressively strong in the Giro del Trentino where he matched Cadel Evans in both big mountain stages and at his best he is one of the very best climbers in this field. Unfortunately, he had a bad day on the way to Montecopiolo which saw him drop out of GC contention but one day later he showed that he still has great legs when he finished 10th in Sestola.

 

His time loss will have given him a lot more freedom to chase a stage win and he will do his utmost to be part of tomorrow's break. No one will be able to drop him on the final climb and he has a decent sprint to finish it off.

 

Julian Arredondo got so agonizingly close to a stage win in Montecopiolo but was reeled in less than 3km from the line. The Trek riders has now had three days to recover and there is no doubt that we will see him on the attack several times in this race.

 

Tomorrow's stage suits him well and he could easily have pinpointed it as an objective. He still leads the mountains classification and has vowed to fight to keep it as long as possible. There are not an awful lot of points on offer in tomorrow's stage and he may choose to save some energy for the weekend. On the other hand, he will have to days to recover from his efforts before the next big mountain stages. There is a big chance that he will try to be part of tomorrow's action and if he is in the move, he will be an obvious danger. He is one of the strongest climbers and even though he doesn't excel in flat sprints, he has a descent punch to finish it off.

 

We made Tim Wellens out favourite for stage 9 and the young Belgian did his utmost to be part of the break. When he failed, he took it easy to save energy for later breakaways and there is no doubt that tomorrow's stage is among those he has pinpointed.

 

Wellens did impressively well when he finished second in stage six and even though he was lucky to stay ahead of the many crashes, it was no mean feat to follow Morabito and Evans on the final climb. Earlier this year he rode very aggressively in the finales of the Ardennes classics and he has obviously taken a massive step forward in his second professional season. He is both a great climber and a decent sprinter, making him an obvious candidate in tomorrow's stage.

 

Mauro Finetto is another rider that is perfectly suited to this stage. The Italian i a very strong climber that has finished in the top 10 in a hard race like the Giro dell'Emilia which ends with the very tough San Luca climb. During the last year, he has stepped up his game massively and there is a great chance that he will win a stage at some point in this race.

 

His main skill is his very fast finish that will make him hard to beat if he is part of the early break. He didn't exactly shine when he joined the break in stage 8 but the Capegna climb was too tough for a rider like him. Tomorrow's stage suits him much better and we wouldn't be surprised to see him saving Neri Sottoli's race.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Astana had big hopes for Michele Scarponi but they have all come to nothing. They still have Fabio Aru as a protected rider but the rest of the team is now likely to have a bit more freedom. The team is loaded with strong climbers that could animate the harder stages and we could see the first signs of that in tomorrow's stage.

 

While riding in Euskaltel colours, Mikel Landa was very inconsistent but he seems to have stepped up his level massively since joining Astana. He won the queen stage of the Giro del Trentino after having been one of the strongest climbers in the race and in this race he has finished close to the best in the first two big uphill finishes despite suffering from a previous crash. If he makes it into the break, he could ride away from everyone else on the final climb. His main disadvantage is his poor sprinting skills as he will probably have to arrive at the finish on his own.

 

With Rodriguez out of the race, Katusha have completely changed their plans and they are now only seeking stage wins. Daniel Moreno is their best candidate to take that elusive victory and even though he is clearly not at his very best, he is definitely at a decent level. He is already far behind on GC and should be given the freedom to join the early move.

 

He doesn't have an awful lot of experience in that kind of racing but he actively tried to be part of the action in stage 9 and will try again tomorrow. If he makes it into the break, he will an obvious favourite, being both a great climber and a very fast finisher.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Dario Cataldo

Other winner candidates: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabio Duarte

Outsiders: Julian Arredondo, Tim Wellens, Mauro Finetto

Joker: Mikel Landa, Daniel Moreno