Today the GC riders certainly didn't get the easy stage they had hoped for and there is no doubt that the 249km to Savona will be felt in their legs when they head into their most important test so far: the 41.9km Barolo time trial. Held on a technically challenging, rolling course, it is a very mixed affair that makes it very difficult to predict how the GC riders will fare compared to the GC riders.

 

The course

After a short break, the GC battle will heat up again as we now enter the second half of the race with one of the race's two individual time trials. Over the last few years, the Giro organizers have introduced a tradition of including three timed stages in their race: a team time trial, a mountain time trial and a more traditional one. Often the flatter time trial has been rather short as Italians have often struggled in the individual discipline but in a quest to attract more international stars, the organizers have made it a bit longer and for the second year in a row, the first individual time trial takes places over a distance of more than 40km.

 

While adding more kilometres, however, the organizers have also made sure that the climbers are not too much at a disadvantage. Last year's long time trial included a very technical opening part and ended on a short, steep climb, and this year the course is again a very tricky one when the race continues with its first individual battle against the clock.

 

This challenging time trial stage is raced against the background of the vineyards in the Alba region. The stage starts in Barbaresco; the course then climbs for about 12 km, with many twists and turns, up to the 4th category KOM of Boscasso (3.1km, 5.0%, max. 8%) where the split time is taken. Here begins a very quick and quite difficult descent (at least in the first part, until Manera), with long straight stretches and low gradients which are suitable for high speeds. Alba marks the beginning of a sector of straight and

perfectly flat roads, up to the second Castiglione Falletto climb (featuring short, initial stretches with remarkable gradients).

 

Just past Castiglione Falletto, a very sharp right-hand bend leads to a short but very difficult descent (initially on narrowed roadway), which – in turn – leads to the uphill road towards the finish. It's a 2km ascent and after an opening section with a 1-3%, the final kilometre kicks up with around 5%. The home stretch is 50m long, on 5m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had pleasant weather conditions for the last few stages but unfortunately it seems that the bad weather will return in time for one of the most decisive stages of the race. After a sunny morning, rain is predicted to start to fall at around noon and it should continue for the entire duration of the time trial.. However, there is a chance that it will stop later in the afternoon which may be an advantage for the GC riders who are the latest starters.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction that will abate as the day goes on. As it will be a cross-headwind for a big part of the stage, the changing wind conditions should again favour the late starters.

 

The favourites

Tomorrow there will be a lot of nervous faces in Barbaresco. The stage 12 time trial is long enough to make a very big difference and even though the final part of the race is loaded with mountain stages, it should have a huge influence on the final GC. While there are usually at least a few real specialists among the favourites for the Tour de France, things are different in this year's Giro and this will make the GC contenders very uncertain about what to expect. On paper Wilco Kelderman and Cadel Evans should be the big winners but the other GC riders are very equally matched and it's hard to predict who's going to gain and lose time.

 

The nature of the course makes things even more complicated. Unless it is held in a major city on the final day, a Giro d'Italia time trial is rarely very flat and the organizers like to make their courses rather technical as well. That's certainly also the case for the route between Barbaresco and Barolo. With both descents being very technical and the stage offering three climbs, only the middle section of the course suits the real specialists. The GC riders that usually struggle in time trials, have been pretty pleased with the outcome of their recon rides and most of them are convinced that they will be able to limit their losses on this course.

 

In addition to the GC riders, there are a number of specialists that are gunning for the victory and they have the benefit maximally from the long, flat middle section. This mixed course opens the door for several possible outcomes as it is hard to gauge how much the specialists will be able to profit of the part that suits them well.

 

The weather conditions may play a big role and they make it much more likely that a GC rider will win the stage. With the descents being technical, wet roads will make a massive difference and there is a chance that they will have dried up for the later starters. Furthermore, the wind should abate which should be another advantage for the GC riders.

 

Originally, we had planned to make Adriano Malori our favourite to win the stage but a number of factors have prompted us to change our minds. First of all, the Italian went down in a crash in today's stage and that is likely to have a bad influence on his performance. Secondly, the weather conditions won't favour the strong Italian who will start much earlier than the GC riders.

 

On this kind of course, it was always going to be a close one between the specialists and the GC riders but now the balance has tipped in favour of the latter.. If one of the overall candidates is going to win, it is likely to be Wilco Kelderman who is the only one who can be described as a real TT specialist. The talented Dutchman took his first major result at the highest level when he finished 4th in the 2012 Dauphiné time trial on a flat course and last year he laid the foundations for his overall Tour of Denmark victory by winning the time trial.

 

However, Kelderman has also been rather inconsistent in his TT performances and he has had some very poor showings as well. Furthermore, he has clearly improved his climbing a lot and there is a risk that he will pay some kind of price in the time trials. This year he has only done a single TT when he finished 9th in Algarve at a time when he was not yet in top condition. Hence, it is hard to gauge which influence his better climbing skills have on his time trialing.

 

At the moment, he is obviously in the moment of his life and the rolling course should suit him. At the same time, the TT comes after several days of hard racing which usually favours the GC riders over the specialists and nothing suggests that Kelderman is slowing down. In fact, he has been pretty surprised by his great feeling these last few days and he claimed to be at ease on the final climb in today's very hard stage. He should be pretty assured of gaining a bit of time on most of his rivals but we think that he has a great chance of coming away with the stage win.

 

The crash and the weather conditions may speak against Adriano Malori but it would be a bad idea to rule out the strong Italian. During the last 18 months, he has stepped up his game massively and he now truly belongs the real elite that until now has consisted of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins. He proved so when the beat all of them convincingly in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial.

 

In this field, he should be pretty unrivalled in a short, flat time trial but on this course, things are a lot more open. Malori mostly excels on the really flat routes and has had a harder time on the hillier ones. However, his main weakness has been the longer time trials as he usually excels on courses that are shorter than 20km. Apart from his wins in his national championships, he has failed to win any time trial that is longer than 40km.

 

He finished 8th in last year's Worlds TT and told CyclingQuotes at the finish that he was pleased to see that he could be up there in a very long race as well but he openly admits that the distance is one of his weaknesses. Hence, tomorrow's stage is a big test for Malori as he will both have to overcome a long course and significant hills to take the win. At the same time, the stage comes after several days of hard racing and this will test his recovery.

 

Malori is in the race mainly to support Quintana but of course he will be allowed to go full gas in tomorrow's stage. He doesn't seem to be on his knees yet and he is actually a very versatile rider that climbs solidly. The regular ascents in tomorrow's stage are not very steep and should suit a powerful rider like Malori perfectly. In this field, he should be unrivalled in the flat middle section but he has himself claimed that the course is too hard for him. Nonetheless, we won't be surprised if he takes another TT win tomorrow.

 

In his heydays, Cadel Evans was an excellent time trialist who almost beat Tony Martin in the final time trial when he won the 2011 Tour de France. During his difficult 2012 and 2013 seasons, however, his skills seemed to deteriorate and even though he now looks like the old Evans again, his time trialing doesn't seem to be back at its former level. That was clearly evidenced in Pais Vasco where he had a rather poor showing on a rolling course that should have suited him well.

 

On the other hand, Evans has clearly stepped up his game a further notch and he seems to be almost back at his highest level. There is a big chance that it will also be reflected in his time trialing and he should produce a solid showing tomorrow. The course suits him well and it would be a great proof of his return to form if he beat all the specialists to take the win

 

It's impossible to know how Thomas De Gendt will be going. The Belgian is extremely inconsistent and he doesn't seem to be at his best in this race. However, he was much poorer in last year's Tour de France and suddenly came up with a fantastic performance to finish third in the first flat time trial.

 

When things come together, De Gendt is a fabulous time trialist and he mostly excels on rolling courses in the second half of the grand tours. Hence, tomorrow's stage will suit him down to the ground and even though he is mostly here to protect Uran, he will probably be allowed to go full gas. When he really nails it, De Gendt is unstoppable and there is a chance that he will take Omega Pharma-Quick Step's first stage win in the race.

 

Team Sky have a number of great options for this time trial. One of them is their in-form former Italian champion Dario Cataldo. The Italian had hoped to finish in the top 10 overall but in stage 8 he paid the price for his crash in stage 6. As a consequence, he dropped out of GC contention but since then he has bounced back with a great showing in the stage to Sestola.

 

Cataldo is no real specialist in this discipline but on rolling courses, he is very strong. Last year he finished fifth in the difficult Vuelta TT and this year he won the hilly Coppi e Bartali time trial. If it had been a flat course, he would have had little chance but this route suits him down to the ground. As he is currently riding really well, we wouldn't be surprised to see him come away with the win.

 

Tobias Ludvigsson showed great signs of improvement in his time trialing in the early part of the year. He won on a very tough parcours in the Etoile de Besseges and he came back from a mechanical to finish 5th on a difficult course in the Tour Med. Since then he has had a harder time in his TTs that have mostly been held on flat courses but tomorrow he will be back on the kind of route that seems to suit him the best.

 

Over the last few days, he has saved his energy for this time trial and he seems to be riding strongly at the moment. Whether he is already strong enough to win a Giro TT is uncertain but we wouldn't be surprised if he makes it onto the podium.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is another solid Sky candidate. The Norwegian has proved to be in great condition and when he is up for it, he is a great time trialist. Unlike many other specialists, he will not be too disadvantaged by the hilly, technical course.

 

The main question is whether he will ride full gas. As an early started, the roads are likely to be wet and he is unlikely to take too many risks. He may decide to save himself for later stages as he has so often done in grand tours. With a sprint stage coming up, that is a likely outcome. However, this is also a great stage win opportunity for his team and if he is up for the challenge, he should be among the best.

 

Jonathan Castroviejo is usually an excellent time trialist but for some reason he has performed very porrly this year. He has been climbing better than ever and that may have had an influence on his TT skills.

 

In the early part of this race, he didn't seem to be riding too well but today he did a very fine race to stay with the favourites on the tough climb. As his climbing has improved, it may actually be an advantage for him that the course is a hilly affair and this could finally allow him to turn the tables on what has so far been a disappointing TT year for the Spanish champion.

 

Michael Rogers may be a three-time world champion but he is clearly not the time trialist he once was. In this field, however, he may still have a chance and the rolling course should suit him well. Today's stage win proved that he is already in great condition after his provisional suspension and today's statements indicate that he will go full gas. Of course he will pay a bit for today's efforts but don't rule out another great performance by the Australian.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Riccardo Zoidl has been fairly anonymous in the first part of this race as he is mainly here to learn. Tomorrow, however, he will probably go full gas in the time trial and this could allow him to take his first top result in a grand tour. So far he has done to time trials as a professional and he has excelled in both. In the Tour Med he was second and in Romandie he was 6th. Both were held on hilly courses that are not too dissimilar to tomorrow's. Look out for the young Austrian to make it into the top 5.

 

Another Sky candidate is Kanstantsin Siutsou. With Cataldo and Henao out of the running, the Belarusian is now the only GC rider for the British team and he seems to be in a solid condition. He has always been a solid time trialist but over the last few years he has mostly been a domestique and so rarely gone full gas in the TTs. At last year's Worlds, however, he finished 10th and tomorrow's rolling course should suit him better.

 

It almost seems absurd to mention Rigoberto Uran as a joker for a time trial but based on his performance in Romandie, he has taken a massive step up. In the Swiss race, he was an impressive fourth in the final time trial and even though he laid the foundations for that result on the climb on the course, he was also extremely fast on the long flat roads. Tomorrow's course should suit his climbing and technical skills even better and he could be a surprise in the top end of the leader board.

 

FDJ are mostly in this race to focus on the sprints but they also have a very decent time trialist on their roster. Johan Le Bon has been rather inconsistent in his TT showings but when everything comes together, he is really strong in the discipline. In this race, he has been climbing stronger than ever and seems to be in a very good condition. He has had a hard time in long time trials and tomorrow's distance may be a bit too much but he is definitely an outside candidate.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is known as a pure climber but don't underestimate his TT skills. He stunned the entire cycling world when he finished third behind Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in last year's Vuelta time trial and even though it included a hard climb, it certainly also had several sections that should have been a clear disadvantage for the tiny Italian.

 

This year he seems to be going better than ever and tomorrow he should be able to defend himself well. The rolling course suits him well and he will benefit maximally from the climbs. Of course he won't win the stage but don't be surprised to see him finish in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes stage winner pick: Wilco Kelderman

Other winner candidates: Adriano Malori, Cadel Evans

Outsiders: Thomas De Gendt, Dario Cataldo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jonathan Castroviejo, Michael Rogers

Jokers: Riccardo Zoidl, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Rigoberto Uran, Johan Le Bon, Domenico Pozzovivo