The Giro d'Italia peloton may already have done some hard climbing but it has all been a mere warm-up for what awaits them in the final third of the race. Tomorrow the first big test in the Alps offers three tough climbs and will give the first real indications of who has the best climbing legs in this year's Italian grand tour.

 

The course

The Giro d'Italia traditionally offer big mountain stages in their weekends and the third one will be a simply brutal affair as it offers two major summit finishes that will kick off the final and very hard third part of the race.

 

First up is a short (164km) mountain stage, with a hilltop finish at the Oropa Sanctuary, which has already hosted several stage finishes. The stage starts in Agliè, the first KOM (category 3, 6.3km, 5.2%, max. 7%) is set past Ivrea, in La Serra. The route takes a first lap through Biella, goes past Cossato (intermediate sprint) and reaches Crevacuore, where the short but harsh Alpe Noveis climb (category 1, 9.0km, 7.9%, max.16%) is located. The average gradient is deceptive as an easy beginning leads to a 4.5km section with an average of 11.4% before it again levels out for the final 1.5km.

 

A steep descent follows, and leads to the uphill Panoramica Zegna (scenic route), up to Bielmonte (category 2, 18.4km, 5.6%, max. 13%). That climb is a long, rather regular, with the most difficult section coming at the midpoint. The route then goes down again, back to Biella, and crosses the city center. Then the final climb to the Oropa Sanctuary begins.

 

The final climb is 11.8km long with an average gradient of 6.2%. The gradient is low in the first part, up to Favaro after 5km of climbing. The climb reaches its steepest gradient (around 13%) across the porphyry-paved center of Favaro,

and then continues with several bends and a gradient of mostly around 9%, up to the 130m long home stretch, on 6.5m wide, porphyry-paved road. The final part is a bit easier, with the final steep 9% section ending 1.5km from the line. The road then levels out before it ramps up with a 7.4% average gradient for the final kilometre.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Last year the mountain stages were plagued by bad weather and over the last few days, most of the GC riders have been keen to explain how much they hope for sun and warm conditions in the crucial stages. It seems that they will get their wishes fulfilled in the weekend that opens the hard final part of the race.

 

Tomorrow should be a beautiful sunny day even though a few clouds may appear by the time the stage reaches its final part. The temperature in Biella at the bottom of the final climb will reach a maximum of 18 degrees, meaning that it should be a rather pleasant day for bike race.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part. It will be a tailwind on the steep Alpe Noveis climb and a crosswind on the Bielmonte ascent. The riders turn into a headwind for  the descent before getting into a tailwind for the final climb.

 

The favourites

The riders have already done two mountain stages in the Apennines but a rather conservative approach meant that we did never really get a chance to see who's the strongest climber in this race. The favourites all hid themselves in the bunch on the stage to Montecopiolo and the final climb to Sestola one day later was never steep enough to produce any real fireworks.

 

The riders may have tried to gauge the strength of their rivals but everybody will be a bit uncertain about their real capabilities when they head into tomorrow's first big test in the Alps. Most of them, however, cannot allow themselves to continue the waiting game as Rigoberto Uran opened so big time gaps in the time trial that most of the riders who still target the overall win, need to benefit maximally from every opportunity to take back time from their Colombian rival.

 

Tomorrow's stage certainly offers such an opportunity and so we can expect a big battle on the final climb. The final climb is certainly not the hardest of this race and so the time gaps are likely to be rather small. On the other hand, it comes at the end of a very hard stage with some significant climbing and one or more teams can certainly do a lot in the early part of the stage to maximize their gains later on.

 

The stage could both be won by a breakaway or by one of the favourites. It is not one of the very prestigious stages that the GC riders necessarily want to win and this could open the door for a successful breakaway. At the same time, there are a lot of hard mountains to come and many teams may want to save their domestiques for what is to come. Finally, the first part is not very easy and if the break has not taken off by the time they reach the first climb - which is likely to be the case as a lot of riders know that this could be a good chance for a breakaway - there is a big chance that a big group of strong climbers will ride away on the first ascent.

 

On the other hand, there are bonus seconds up for grabs in the finale and riders like Nairo Quintana and Domenico Pozzovivo cannot allow themselves to let a break take them away from them. As the final climb is not very hard, they also have to make the race tough already on the first two big climbs which means that the peloton is likely to ride rather fast for most of the day. We are pretty sure that Movistar, Ag2r and Tinkoff-Saxo will take control of the situation already from the very steep Alpe Noveis and we expect a rather small group of favourites to crest the summit. The Bielmonte climb will do less damage but the pace will still be high as those three team all have a clear incentive to maximize their time gains. Especially, Tinkoff-Saxo and Ag2r have proved to be very strong This makes it much harder for the break to stay away.

 

Those different factors mean that it is 50-50 whether this is a stage for a breakaway or one for the favourites.

 

If it becomes a day for the favourites, it's very hard to pick an outright favourite. Until now, seven riders have emerged as the strongest and Domenico Pozzovivo, Nairo Quintana, Wilco Kelderman, Cadel Evans, Robert Kiserlovski, Rafal Majka and Rigoberto Uran seem to be a level above the rest. Pierre Rolland and Ivan Basso are not far behind but have a different, less explosive riding style that make them less suited to the rather short Oropa climb.

 

The first 5km of the final ascent are rather easy and this means that the selection has to be made in the final 6-7km. This section has some tough ramps where a difference can be made but the final part also offers some flatter sections that can be used to recover. This means that the stage is not necessarily one for a pure climber and may more be one for the punchier climbers.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has repeatedly proved that he is climbing better than ever. In the time trial he was much faster than his rivals on the first climb and even though he benefited from being the only one not to use a TT bike, it is a clear testament to his strength. In Sestola he did an impressive effort to drop his rivals and hold them off in a headwind in a section that was not very steep. His rivals may have underestimated him a bit and he may have been given a bit of freedom but his attack was obviously a very strong one.

 

The final climb does not suit him perfectly but it is not too bad either. He usually struggles when the ascents are too long and hence the shorter distance should suit him well. Despite his tiny nature, he is actually pretty punchy and will excel on the steep ramps in the finale.

 

His main disadvantage is his sprinting skills but as the final kilometre is pretty steep, it will be more about legs than speed in the finale. At the moment, nobody seems to be able to match his speed on the tough sections and there is a great chance that he will ride away from everyone else to take a solo win.

 

On paper, Nairo Quintana is the strongest climber in this race but until now the Colombian has been hampered by a lot of health issues. First he suffered from his crash on stage 6 and over the last few days a cold has been bothering him. This means that he is not yet at 100% and makes him performance a bit of a question.

 

Despite his health issues, he has not seemed to be put into real difficulty yet and on the road to Montecopiolo he was the only one who could keep up with Wilco Kelderman in the sprint, putting a few seconds into Evans, Uran and Pozzovivo. It is testament to his class that he is still in contention despite those issues and if he manages to recover, there is still a big chance that he will be flying in the final week when the stages that really suit him will offer him some better terrain.

 

Tomorrow's final climb is too short and too irregular to suit him perfectly but he actually has a solid punch. If he is at his best, he definitely has the skills to drop his rivals on the steep sections and if he has just the slightest bit of energy left, he will give it a try as he needs to take back a lot of time. Quintana may not yet be at 100% but in this kind of stage, he remains a favourite.

 

Until now, Wilco Kelderman has been the strongest of the favourites in most of the uphill sprints and this makes him an obvious candidate in tomorrow's stage. As said, the final climb is not very tough and due to its irregular nature, it may be more about punch than real climbing legs. Until now, Kelderman has seemed to be at ease on the ascents and has no been put into real difficulty yet. In fact, nothing really suggest that anyone will be able to drop him on this kind of climb and if it comes down to a sprint he will be hard to beat.

 

Of course that require Diego Ulissi to have been dropped and the Italian looms as a great outsider. The double stage winner is a class of his own in the uphill sprints but is no real climber. When he won in Montecopiolo, he had to dig really deep to survive the Carpegna climb and there is no doubt that he will not have a chance in the real mountain stages to come. Tomorrow's final climb is not very difficult though and the stage is also rather short which should suit him well. He may have crashed in stage 11 but in the time trial he proved that he is recovered and still in excellent condition. There is a big chance that they will not get rid of Ulissi before the final kilometre and if that's the case, he will be impossible to beat.

 

Robert Kiserlovski has mostly flown under the radar but many tend to forget that he was actually the best GC rider in the Montecopiolo stage. Until now, nobody has been able to put him into any kind of difficulty and he is obviously one of the strongest riders in the race. He has a tendency to fade a bit in the final week of the grand tours but until now nothing suggests that he has lost his great condition. As he lost a lot of time in the time trial, he may not be marked very heavily and this could allow him the freedom to attack in the finale.

 

Rigoberto Uran can allow himself to ride pretty defensively and he will probably take a conservative approach. He obviously did a great time trial but until now we have not been too impressed with his climbing. In fact he was the rider to open the gap to Kiserlovski and Ulissi in Montecopiolo and he was clearly on his limit in the finale of that stage. He may pay a price in the harder stages to come but this short climb suits him well. He is a very punchy rider and if it comes down to a sprint, he could take the win.

 

Pierre Rolland has been riding surprisingly well in this race and he has been on the attack whenever he has had the slightest chance. It would be a huge surprise if he doesn't try his hand on the final climb in tomorrow's stage and as he is already far back in the overall standings, he may have some freedom. The final climb doesn't suit him well but as he is going very strongly at the moment, a carte blanche to attack could give him the win.

 

If a break makes it, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on Julian Arredondo. The Colombian has proved that he is one of the strongest climbers in this race and tomorrow may be a good day for him to pick up more points for the mountains jersey. Sunday's stage doesn't offer a lot of points and Monday is a rest day, meaning that he can leave it all on the road to Oropa. The short, irregular climb suits him well and if he is part of a successful break, he will be the favourite.

 

Astana still have Fabio Aru for the GC but we expect them to start to ride more aggressively in their quest to take a stage win. They have a lot of strong climbers but their most obvious potential stage winner is Mikel Landa. The Basque has taken a massive step up this year and has stayed with the favourites until very deep into the finales in all mountain stages so far. If the early break takes off on the first climb, there is a great chance that he will be there and then he will be one of the favourites.

 

Fabio Duarte has been pretty inconsistent in this race but he has shown signs of great form along the way. As he is out of the GC battle, he will go all out for a stage win in the mountains and tomorrow's stage offers him the first chance. If the break takes off on the first climb, there is a big chance that he will be there and with his fast sprint, he has a great chance to emerge as the strongest on the final climb.

 

Finally, we will again mention Dario Cataldo. In the time trial, he again proved that he is great form and there is little doubt that he will try to be part of the early break. Compared to many of the pure climbers, he has a bigger chance to make it into the escape in the rolling first part and he will undoubtedly be one of the best climbers if he joins the move. Furthermore, he has a fast sprint that makes him suited to the final ascent.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Domenico Pozzovivo

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Wilco Kelderman

Outsiders: Diego Ulissi, Robert Kiserlovski, Rigoberto Uran, Pierre Rolland

Jokers: Julian Arredondo, Mikel Landa, Fabio Duarte, Dario Cataldo